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China-India rivalry in Maldives set to intensify June 12, 2011

Posted by southasiamasala in : DeSilva-Ranasinghe, Serge, Future Directions International, Maldives , trackback

Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe

This article first appeared here in Future Directions International

Background

The 28-31 May visit to Maldives by the most senior Chinese official ever to visit the Islamic archipelago-nation went largely unreported in the Western media. The significance of the visit by Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, underscored the increasing importance of Maldives to China’s regional strategic calculations.

Comment

China and Maldives first established diplomatic relations in 1972. Since then, relations have gradually developed. More recently, Indian policy analysts referred to China’s soft power rise throughout South Asia as a “creeping expansionism”. They went so far as to accuse China of harbouring ambitions to set up a submarine base facility in Maldives.

For instance, in 2005, Indian commentator, A.B. Mahapatra, asserted that:

“China has engineered a manner of a coup by coaxing Maldives’ Abdul Gayoom government to let it establish a base in Marao. Marao is one of the largest of the 1192 coral islands grouped into atolls that comprise Maldives and lies 40 km south of Male, the capital. Scientists warn that global warming is pushing up ocean and sea levels. They fear that most of Maldives will be submerged by year 2040. Marao may be one of the few large islands that may survive. ‘And even if it goes under water’, said a naval official, ‘it will be ideal for submarines.’ In February 2001, a small delegation from Pakistan visited Maldives to boost cultural ties. ‘The Pakistanis put pressure on Male to facilitate Chinese plans for a naval base’, said an official. ‘China used Pakistan to play the Islamic card with Maldives.’ But the Marao base is not expected to be operational until 2010.”

President Abdul Gayoom ruled the Maldives for around 30 years. Following his election defeat in November 2008, his successor, President Mohamed Nasheed, has shown greater willingness to accommodate Indian interests. As reported widely in the Indian media in late 2009, the Maldives acceded to India’s request to deploy 26 coastal radars to monitor its territorial waters:  “Some of the radars have already been set up. India is also training men to operate and run the radars,” stated President Nasheed. “India is not trying to influence us. We wanted the radars. A lot of biomass poaching (poaching of fish and corals) happens in the area. So does a lot of illegal commercial fishing,” he said.

Latterly, it transpired that India’s coast guard and naval vessels would patrol the Maldives’ territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, and a private Indian company was contracted to refurbish the former British Gan Island air base for use by Indian reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft.

Trade in minerals and energy, worth many billions of dollars annually, passes near the Maldives, which is strategically located astride the major sea lanes in the Indian Ocean. It is hardly surprising therefore that former Indian diplomat Kuldeep Sahdev mentioned: “It is a country of immense strategic importance to us.”

Historically, India has long seen the islands as within its sphere of influence and has sought to underwrite the security of the Maldives. This was demonstrated in November 1988, when heavily armed ethnic-Tamil militants staged a coup to oust President Gayoom, but were rapidly intercepted and neutralised by expeditionary forces dispatched by India.

More recently, in February 2011, President Nasheed made a tour of India to enhance co-operation in trade, investment and security, and chose to use the opportunity to reiterate his pro-India stance. “Maintaining balance in the Indian Ocean is very important. There is not enough room in the Indian Ocean for other non-traditional friends,” he said. “We are not receptive to any installation, military or otherwise, in the Indian Ocean, especially from un-traditional friends. The Indian Ocean is the Indian Ocean.” He added: “India is a better investment destination. It’s far easier to deal with India than with China. We had discussions on the Indian Ocean, piracy, climate change and trade and investment. Piracy is a very important issue for us. We are sitting right in the middle of the Indian Ocean.”

Yet, although India is clearly strategically pre-eminent in the Maldives, China has continued to expand its soft power influence in the archipelago nation. Since the Maldives attained independence in 1965, China has built the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs building and also the national museum. More recently, China formed a Maldives-China Parliamentary Friendship Group and China’s parliament has also set up a focus group, intent on further developing relations. In 2010, bilateral trade between both countries reached US$64 million, a reported increase of nearly 56 per cent from 2009.

Concessional loans provided by China, such as to build the 1000 Housing Units Project, have served to further expand goodwill and co-operation. Indeed, in 2010 some 117 Maldivian expatriates were reportedly studying in China, and over 120,000 Chinese tourists visited Maldives, making China the largest source of tourists for Maldives. Similarly, during the same year China and Maldives signed a number of co-operation agreements, including in culture, education and sport.

Given the economic benefits of its association with China, regardless of current strategic imperatives vis-à-vis the rivalry between China, India and the US, Maldives will continue to be reliant on China’s investment, trade and goodwill, even though India has also sought to enhance its investment, trade and economic assistance to the island-nation.

Hence, the visit of Wu Bangguo is likely to make India increasingly anxious about China’s growing soft power influence. From a Maldivian perspective, the importance of the visit was unmistakable. ‘This is the highest-ranking visit from China to Maldives. This visit is therefore very symbolic,” said Abdulla Shahid, the speaker of the Maldivian People’s Majlis. Indeed, the implications of China’s growing soft power influence are likely to be critical considerations for India, especially when President Nasheed goes to the polls in the upcoming 2013 presidential election.

 

Comments

1. Tholath - January 24, 2014

I do not agree with two facts in this article; firstly there is no island named “Marao” in the Maldives and secondly; India forces did not defeat the Tamils.

Indian forces came after the Tamils fled by high jacking a cargo vessel. But the important point is that Maldivians were thankful for India’s assistance up to this day.

It seems to me the author does not understand the more closer relationship with India and the Maldives. I can say that the Maldivian government will not even consider a foreign military base without consulting New Delhi.

These stories about building a submarine base comes from the Indian media whom has no idea how the geographical features of Maldives. They even boast that Maldives even has Al-Qaida military camps without even setting foot on the country.