Indian Ocean: don’t militarise the ‘great connector’ March 29, 2012Posted by sandygordon in : Gordon, Sandy, India, Pakistan , 1 comment so far
The Indian Ocean is Australia’s back yard – or at least if you live in the West. It also plays a major role in transporting energy from the oil and gas-rich Persian Gulf to Australia’s principal trading partners, China and Japan. With each passing year, these and other East Asian powers become more dependent on the free passage of oil over the Indian Ocean.
This makes China nervous. India and China have an ambivalent relationship. On the one hand they have common interests based on growing trade and similar positions in the WTO and on climate change. But on the other, they have abiding suspicions over the longstanding border dispute and what India sees as Chinese meddling in its own back yard – South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
USN Los Angeles class nuclear powered submarine
SAM recommends …’India: The Next Superpower?’ March 21, 2012Posted by southasiamasala in : Gordon, Sandy, India, South Asia Masala Recommends , Comment
Two recent works are of great interest to those of us who have traced India’s rise to power over the years. The pieces question whether India will ever become a superpower, and even if it should aspire to that role. One is a single authored article by the eminent Indian historian, Ramachandra Guha, titled ‘Democratic to a fault’, and the other a more in-depth analysis by a team put together by the London School of Economics and including Guha, on the subject: ‘India: the next superpower?’.
The pieces argue that India should concentrate on its manifest internal problems of governance and related issues before it can hope to rise as a world power. These problems have recently been highlighted by the massive 2G scam and other cases of mega-corruption. Such pathology and corruption is, in turn, closely connected to the social dislocation engendered by poor performance in areas such as nutrition, health and education at the grass-roots. Failure to share the benefits of development, not so much through lack of policy but more because of issues of governance, has in its turn been a significant factor in the Maoist insurgency – to take one of a number of available examples – now troubling nearly a third of India’s districts. And development itself is leading to substantial environmental problems, which will need to be addressed before India can advance on a sustainable basis.
SAM leaves the reader to judge for herself. And we would also welcome any opinion or commentary. For references, see below:
Guha, Ramachandran, 2012, ‘Democratic to a Fault?’, Prospect Magazine, 25 January 2012, as at http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2012/01/democratic-to-a-fault-ramachandra-guha-indias-future/.
LSE Team: ‘India: The Next Superpower’, as at http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/SR010.aspx and follow the links.
Pakistan and the Afghan End-Game: need for a rethink? February 11, 2012Posted by sandygordon in : Afghanistan, Gordon, Sandy, India, Pakistan , Comment
Washington has now moderated Secretary for Defense Leon Panetta’s statement that the US as a fighting force would be in the barracks by mid-2013. US forces may now come out to fight as and when necessary till departure at the end of 2014. But that doesn’t change much. The fact is the Afghan endgame has been in play at least since the death of bin Laden.
On the surface Pakistan appears to be a highly dysfunctional country caught up in the current ‘AfPak’ uncertainty and poorly positioned to benefit from the endgame. Perilously poised between a dysfunctional civilian government and an Army reluctant to seize power but willing to shape events from the wings, beset by terrorist and insurgency violence, with a failing and near bankrupt economy and shocking social sector indicators, on numerous occasions commentators have predicted Pakistan’s demise.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Hina Rabbani Khar
South Asia in 2011: a year of strained relations January 17, 2012Posted by southasiamasala in : Gordon, Sandy, South Asia - General , Comment
First published as part of a special feature: 2011 in review and the year ahead, in East Asia Forum, 3 January 2012.
South Asia is a vast region encompassing eight nations (if we include Afghanistan) and over one-fifth of humanity. It is difficult to do it justice in this short summary of the year’s events.
Foremost among the region’s significant developments is the killing of Osama bin Laden in a US raid on 2 May. This is important not just for its effect on al-Qaeda, but because it made possible Washington’s claim that the US could now leave Afghanistan with its ‘mission accomplished’. By the end of 2014 there will be only a rump of about 20,000 NATO troops remaining.
At the same time, the raid also triggered a marked deterioration in the US-Pakistan relationship, already troubled by the Raymond Davis affair. The net result is that although the impetus on the US to leave Afghanistan has increased, the prospect of an orderly departure and satisfactory final outcome has declined.
Speculation swirls around Pakistan’s President Zardari December 8, 2011Posted by sandygordon in : Afghanistan, Gordon, Sandy, Pakistan , Comment
President Zardari reportedly suffered a minor heart attack on December 6 and is now in Dubai. The normally well informed STRATFOR reported that Zardari had been ‘incoherent’ in an earlier telephone conversation with President Obama. According to the BBC, Zardari’s staff say the problem is minor and there is no question of his resigning.
There have, however, been a series of worrying developments in the Af-Pak region recently and it is quite possible either that it has all become too much for Zardari or that he has been given the nod to leave by the military.
NATO attack on Pakistani border post: what it means November 28, 2011Posted by sandygordon in : Afghanistan, Gordon, Sandy, Pakistan , Comment
The raw facts are known. A long-standing Pakistani military base just within the northern border of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) was attacked by helicopters and possibly fixed-wing NATO aircraft on 26 November and at least 25 Pakistani officers and men killed. Since then, Pakistan has reacted by “indefinitely” closing border traffic for NATO goods from Pakistan into Afghanistan and giving the US 15 days to vacate its UAV base at Shamsi.
What is less well known is what prompted the NATO night attack. NATO is investigating. But it is possible that firing came from the base in support of a Taliban training facility, which was being concurrently attacked by US special forces. Or it may simply have been the result of a mix-up – all too easy in night fighting in the complex tribal area.
Behind Gillard’s India uranium sale decision November 19, 2011Posted by sandygordon in : Gordon, Sandy, India , 1 comment so far
This article first appeared in The Australian on 18 November. The Australian is no longer available on the internet except on subscription.
Julia Gillard would have been more politically comfortable had she left the issue of uranium sales to India rusting in the ‘parking lot’. The pressing questions is therefore: why now?
There are obviously a number of factors involved, but it is clearly no accident that her announcement was made on the eve of the visit of President Obama, who came to announce a new US engagement in Asia and an enhanced role for Australia.
The new US strategic thrust is mainly about the rise of China and relative decline of the US. With bin Laden dead and after years of US ‘boots on the ground’ in the Middle East and South West Asia, Washington has concluded that its wars are now providing security for others such as China to ‘free ride’, while America pays a price it can ill afford in blood and treasure. All this saps America’s capacity to play in the real game, which has now shifted to Asia.
Gillard and Obama at APEC – next stop for India?
India and Asia’s ‘concert of powers’ October 6, 2011Posted by sandygordon in : Gordon, Sandy, India , 2comments
The CIA has assessed that India is a ‘swing state’ in Asia. By that it means that how India, as a rising power, chooses to lock into existing security structures will have important implications for the Asian security order.
India’s emergence is especially important in the context of the rise of China and apparent relative decline of the US. This confronts Australia with stark choices between its economic imperative not to alienate China and its long-standing strategic reliance on the United States.
Leading Australian analysts such as Hugh White (Power Shift) and Coral Bell (Living with Giants) have advocated that China and India be inducted into a ‘concert of powers’ consisting of those two plus the other big powers – the US, Japan and Russia. They thus hope to mitigate the perturbations that might otherwise be associated with China’s rise.
Half of the ‘quadrilateral’ – Bush meets Abe, Camp David, 2007.
South Asia Masala Recommends … Arundhati Roy and Anna Hazare. August 24, 2011Posted by sandygordon in : Gordon, Sandy, India , Comment
Arundhati Roy, author of that most beautiful of novels, The God of Small Things, and much splendid social commentary besides, is nothing if not brave. In taking on Anna Hazare and his supporters she is meeting head on the genuinely felt grievances about corruption of millions of Indians. See her article in The Hindu.
Author and social commentator Arundhati Roy.
The South Asia Cold War ‘quadrilateral’ redux? August 15, 2011Posted by southasiamasala in : Afghanistan, Gordon, Sandy, India, Pakistan , Comment
This post first appeared here on the Future Directions International site.
For significant periods during the Cold War, South Asia and the Indian Ocean region were locked in the embrace of a four-power, ‘quadrilateral’ structure. On one side were India and the former Soviet Union – New Delhi then had a ‘tilt’ towards Moscow. For much of the period Pakistan stood beside the US against Soviet and ‘leftist’ influence in the region, being at one point even a member of the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO).
After the Sino-US rapprochement in 1972, China, Pakistan and the US found themselves ranged in broad terms against India and the former Soviet Union: the ‘quadrilateral’ in effect re-emerged as an ‘pentagon’. All of that, of course, changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which opened out the long process of rapprochement between India and the US.
A happy ISI chief Lt General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, who reportedly recently ‘secretely’ visited China.