How do policymakers update?

ACDE Trade & Development Seminars


Eva Vivalt, ANU.


Seminar Room C (Nadel Room), HC Coombs Building (9), Fellows Road, ANU


Tuesday, 8 August, 2017 - 14:00 to 15:30

Evidence-based policy-making requires not only evidence, but also for policymakers to update appropriately based on that evidence. We examine how policymakers, researchers, and others update in response to results from multiple studies, using a unique opportunity to run an experiment on policymakers. We find evidence of ‘variance neglect’, a bias similar to extension neglect in which confidence intervals are ignored. We also find evidence of increased updating on positive results.

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