Modelling the cumulative effects of Brexit and follow-on UK and EU27 Bilateral FTAs on product markets: the case of wine

ACDE Trade & Development Seminars


Kym Anderson, University of Adelaide and ANU, Glyn Wittwer, Victoria University, Melbourne.


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Tuesday, 20 February, 2018 - 14:00 to 15:30

Trade policy modelling typically focuses on effects of tariff changes on product markets. Yet in practice those are small relative to effects of changes in real incomes and real exchange rates as a consequence of a trade agreement. And the effects on bilateral trade are sensitive to follow-on bilateral FTAs, each of which generates winners and losers. The trade and welfare benefits of even cumulative FTAs are typically very small compared with those from global reform.

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