New Mandala

[Simon Creak, a PhD Candidate at The Australian National University, has examined the issues at stake in next month's SEA Games in Laos for Asia Times Online. Supposedly a massive achievement for the small country, the games have been scaled back and are dependent on enormous foreign funding. What to make of the paradox? Read on and leave your comments.]

Long after the misadventures of the United States in Indochina, landlocked Laos evokes golden temples, golden smiles and, in the business world, golden mining prospects. But it is a different type of gold that will occupy the nation when the region’s Southeast Asian (SEA) Games are for the first time staged in the country, from 9-18 December. What’s in it for little Laos?

The SEA Games may not register much outside the region, but this year celebrating their golden jubilee, they are a big deal for the 11 countries involved. These are Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The previous games, in Thailand in 2007, featured more that 5,000 athletes and almost 2,000 officials across 43 different sports.

Laos, a tiny country of just six million people, is understandably excited at hosting the 25th games for the first time in the event’s 50-year history. Local news reports in the state-controlled media refer proudly to the “honor” of playing host, while organizers boast the event will “put Laos on the map”, attract tourists and draw foreign investment.

Just as important, the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) sees the games as a boost to the regime’s prestige at home. This is not just a sports event, but probably the country’s biggest state extravaganza since formally gaining independence from France in July 1949. [Read more →]

Vajiralongkorn is a graduate from Australia’s Royal Military College in Canberra and has trained with the U.S., British and Australian armed services…His Western lifestyle is not discussed openly, thanks again to lese majeste. But people have privately asked whether he has the natural authority to unify the nation, especially given his partisanship towards the military. Meanwhile, the king remains convalescing in a heavily guarded Bangkok hospital as the unsaid succession to the throne gets thought about daily.

- Extracted from “Police on guard against anti-king comments”, UPI, 4 November 2009. 

It is hardly surprising — given the inevitable international curiosity about Thailand’s succession – that descriptions of this type will continue to appear in newspapers around the world.  Such descriptions tend not to be explicitly critical of the royal family, or Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, but they are, I’d suggest, one part of increasingly broad-minded efforts to understand the future of Thai society.  These efforts are now coming thick-and-fast; on some days they are starting to dominate discussion of the potential changes that will come with the end of King Bhumibol’s long reign.

Some months ago I put together a tentative list of Fifty-two questions for the study of mainland Southeast Asia.  Today I want to draw attention to question 41, “Is Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn really as bad as people make out?”.  Well-informed answers to this question will, I’m sure, help journalists, analysts, academics and others to better understand Thailand’s longer-term prospects.  Such answers may also help Thais who are interested in the succession to improve their own understanding of the palace, and its key personalities.  We haven’t seen the end of newspaper articles that seek to describe (usually in very cautious terms) the potential for an even deeper political crisis.  So it makes sense, I reckon, to attempt an answer to one of the questions that is lurking in the background of these commentaries.

Comments and suggestions from readers are very welcome here.  You may even want to chance your arm…and offer an answer to the question.

Wassana Nanuam, Lap luang phrang phak phitsadan [Secrets, Trickery, and Camouflage: The Improbable Phenomena]. Bangkok, Post Books, 2009. 303 pp. In Thai.

Soldiers, guns and coups have played a big role in Thailand’s politics for centuries. Historians think that the Front Palace incident in 1874 early in the reign of the fifth Bangkok king was actually a coup attempt backed by nobles and princes who stood to lose out if the young King Chulalongkorn proceeded with his reforms. Many coups, such as the one in September 2006, have succeeded, but there is no guarantee of success as several coup planners in the 1980s discovered. The country’s annals are littered with failed and aborted coups, and false alarms.

Seizing power by coup is a dangerous game. A coup that fails can result in disgrace or demotion, and even jail or death, so the plotters need to plan meticulously. The loyalties of key divisional commanders need to be secured. Inside knowledge of the itineraries of the head of government and his most loyal supporters is invaluable, and the reactions of the palaces need to be anticipated. The leader of the coup group also must assess whether or not he has ‘the right stuff’ to be prime minister. He also needs to identify rivals who might seriously challenge his leadership.

Timing is critical, and luck is a big factor. For advice on bringing off a coup successfully, military officers scrambling for rank and power consult astrologers. The incumbent monarch is the ninth Bangkok king, so the 9s in the date of the latest coup – the nineteenth day of the ninth month of B. E. 2549 – suggest an astrologer’s connivance on timing. The generals’ wives, who have time on their hands, may play a key role by searching out forecasts from lay and monastic astrologers on behalf of their husbands. The astrologers feed the egos and stoke the ambitions of their clients, always useful for retaining the confidence of men who aspire to high office. In the last two successful coups in 1991 and 2006, the astrologer who had advised the chief coup planner became the astrologer for the coup group once it had assumed power. In 1991 it was Kengkat Chongchaiphra, and in 2006 it was the Chiang Mai-based Warin Buawiratloet.   

To prepare for national leadership certain steps can be taken to enhance prospects. The astrologer may recommend that his client increase his store of merit with appropriate rituals. Sixteen has been an auspicious number for army chiefs, so the spellings of names are twigged to make up the requisite sixteen characters, including superscript and subscript vowels and tone marks. Sometimes personal and family names are changed to ‘reverse’ bad karma or to designate a martial vocation. Did General Arthit Kamlang-ek’s parents really name him ‘The Sun Deity Preeminent Force’? Fire is cleansing, so soldiers changing their names burn some of their hair and nail clippings along with their old name to ritually dispose of their former selves.

The astrologers acquire confidential information that may be leaked to the media and thus contribute to an atmosphere of public apprehension and uncertainty. Rumours serve strategic ends by testing the reaction of key institutions and power blocs. For an important military player merely to be seen visiting an astrologer can stir rumours. During the turmoil of late 2008 when rumours circulated of a possible coup, General Anuphong Phaochinda, then head of the army, avoided visiting Warin, the astrologer of the 2006 coup group. Anuphong’s unwillingness to quell the violence instigated by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and his refusal to resign after fatalities caused by the use of tear gas in suppressing protests indicated not weakness or conspiracy with the PAD or one of the palaces, but the management of risk. Anuphong stood to lose a great deal if the coup went ahead and ultimately failed. He did not want to risk his career by acting and failing.   

Senior military officers are graduates of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy founded on 5 August 1887 by King Chulalongkorn who is addressed as Royal Father or Grandfather of the school. Within the academy’s grounds is an image of Chulalongkorn before which the cadets daily swear to protect the king’s legacy and defend the throne and the nation with their life’s blood. Whenever graduates of the academy encounter an image of this monarch, such as the equestrian statues located throughout the country, they commune with the image, renew their vows of loyalty, and pray to the deceased king for his blessing and success in their ventures. Throughout their careers, military officers reach out for the sacred and mysterious powers of the academy’s patron saint.   

Consider these numbers. August was the birth month of four prime ministers of Thailand who came from the army: Field Marshal Thanom Kitikhachorn (11^th); General Sujinda Kraprayoon (6^th); General Prem Tinsulanond (26^th); and General Surayut Chulanon (28^th). Other high-ranking generals who have played key roles in the nation’s politics recently and who were born in August include Sunthorn Khongsompong (1^st), Mongkol Amphornphisit (10^th), Chettha Thanajaro (23^rd), and Arthit Kamlang-ek (31^st). Banharn Silpa-archa, who was prime minister from 1995-1996 was born on 31 August, and Abhisit Vejjajiva, the present prime minister, was born on 3 August. Anan Panyarachun, who was a cooperative choice for prime minister when the army needed a quick fix to restore its tattered reputation after the disastrous May 1992 killings in the streets of Bangkok, was born on 9 August. Some astrology manuals stretch the August sign into late July, in which case Chuan Leekpai and Thaksin Shinawatra, born on 28 and 26 July respectively, join the group. [Read more →]

From the Asia Society:

The Asia Society wants to let you know about an upcoming webcast, Tearing the Land Apart: Islam and Legitimacy in Southern Thailand, featuring the author, Duncan McCargo, Southeast Asian Politics, University of Leeds. This event will take place at the Asia Society headquarters in New York tomorrow, Friday, November 6, 2009 from 1:00-2:00 p.m., ET (New York).

We hope that you will join us online by visiting our website, and following the directions there. The webcast will be available 30 minutes before the program begins. Listeners will also have opportunities to send their questions in to moderator@asiasociety.org, where they will be addressed during the program. Please also feel free to forward the flyer below to your contacts as well. Please let me know if you have any questions. We look forward to your participation!

New Mandala’s recent post “Crimes against the state: a long lost manuscript” triggered an important question: to whom do we owe our allegiance as citizens – country, the royalty, political party, our race, religion, or individual politicians? The movie Valkyrie (2008) probably answers it best – we owe our allegiance to our country – nothing else and we make decisions on what we think is best for our country – not ourselves, our political party, or our leaders.

This is a question most people in Malaysia don’t really contemplate. The recent by-election saw a disgraced former Chief Minister from Barisan Nasional win with a thumping majority (he was suspended from UMNO for corruption, but in true Malaysian style no charges were brought against him). Voters in the constituency credited Isa for doing a “good job” when he was Chief Minister of the state and therefore felt obliged to vote for him.

What then does one do, if the majority seems to be in favour of a wrong direction for a country? It was a highly civilised Germany that elected Adolf Hitler. How is it that the well educated citizens of Zimbabwe did not foresee what Mugabe would do? Or closer to home – how is it that intelligent Burmans allowed a military junta to destroy such a prosperous country?

Who do we hold responsible when this occurs? Is UMNO responsible for the state that Malaysia is in now? Or are the citizens of Malaysia collectively responsible? After all, have not Malaysians continued to support this party, directly or indirectly. Are we prepared to sacrifice for our country, like Stauffenberg did?

It may be the nature of humans to be selfish in order to survive. However, history tells us, that this selfishness ultimately destroys the very things we hold dear. Malaysians will soon face this reality, if they have not already.

Back in September we announced that the Thailand-Laos-Cambodia Studies Group and New Mandala were seeking a Book Review Editor for a new initiative that will offer regular book reviews of important new texts (in English and other languages) about mainland Southeast Asia. We received some excellent applications and would like to thank all of you who applied.

It give us great pleasure to announce that Michael Montesano has been named Book Review Editor. Michael will be known to many of you. He is a highly experienced scholar of Southeast Asia and a regular contributor to discussions in the on-line world. He will bring a wealth of experience to this role. 

Please join us in welcoming him to the New Mandala and TLC team.

The show goes on. The military has a clear vision of what kind of state Burma should be—and that is not a democracy. It is sometimes argued that the hopes for a more pluralistic society rest on the next generation army officers. Aware of this danger, officers have been given unprecedented privileges and business opportunities in order to retain their loyalty to the regime. There are no Young Turks lurking in the wings.

- Extracted from Bertil Lintner, “Reaching Out to Burma”, The Wall Street Journal, 3 November 2009.

An anonymous reader has sent New Mandala a fascinating manuscript:

This manuscript was found in records concerning US foreign correspondents in Europe in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The manuscript may be a memoir, as there was a case alluded to within the same set of records, the news of which the Imperial German government was quick to suppress. This leads some credence to the view that this article presents a true account of a single trial or perhaps a composite of a number of cases from the same period. The manuscript, apparently for a German audience, can be dated to about1900, given its reference to Herzberg Hospital. The authorship is clearly attributable to Edward Breck, a liberal German-American who wrote for The New York Tribune in the 1890s [see Gillmeister, Heiner, Edward Breck: “Anglo-Saxon Scholar, Golf Champion, and Master Spy”, in, Sawada, Mayumi, L. Walker, and Shizuya T., Language and Beyond: Festschrift for Hiroshi Yonekura on the Occasion of His 65th Birthday (Tokyo: Eichosha, 2007), pp. 33-56], and also used “F.F. van de Water” as a pseudonym (the name of the narrator in this case).  Breck was an accomplished writer, both in English and German, both of fiction and nonfiction. This long manuscript was apparently originally in German and sequestered in the archives of the conservative Tribune. It was translated into English by an unknown translator, identified only with the initials “A. H. R” and who appears to have preferred leaving certain parts un-translated, perhaps to lend a feel of authenticity. This translation came with a number of footnotes; the translator seems to have added a few notes where clarification seemed appropriate. The original title has been retained. This manuscript was received from an unnamed source who found it in the Tribune archives, and thought it should be published as it had obvious relevance to the Thai situation.

The manuscript is available here. And here are the first three paragraphs:

Otto von Schelling, the Senior State Attorney, cut an impressive figure. His civil service uniform was immaculate. Before when I had seen him, he looked to be of average build. But seeing him before us, wearing his red imperial sash, his chest now seemed immense, seemingly swollen with pride for the recognition conferred him by the Kaiser. His whiskers were immense, and had they been on a less dignified mien, might have appeared startling, but for von Schelling they made him appear almost majestic. Removing his pince-nez, he looked out at those present and smiled.

“Gentlemen, I want to thank you for coming to the Reichsjustizamt this afternoon. We realize there has been some concern among you, our honoured foreign correspondents, about the use of the lese majeste law, and I want to clearly explain the government’s position on this matter.”

“As you may know, German law recognises the importance of honour and reputation. Everyone—from the Kaiser to the most humble citizen—is protected from libel and slander. Of course one whose reputation is besmirched may resort to seeking civil damages, but here the integrity of each person’s reputation is what ensures peace and order in society, and so the German state makes such violations criminal.”

“There has been concern in the local and foreign press that there is a perceived lack of discretion in the use of the lese majeste law. I say ‘perceived’ because I believe that there is a misunderstanding about the lese majeste law, particularly amongst our foreign guests. You may prize freedom of expression above all else. And we might say that we cherish protections of our good names. You should realise that the lese majeste provision is a deep expression of Teutonic, of German culture. I might even hazard saying that it is part of what makes us German, just as our love of monarchy is a central impulse of all true Germans. I might even go so far as to say that it is impossible to have a true German who entertains republic thoughts.”

Sitting here at the National Thai Studies Centre’s 2009 Thai Update I am struck by the news that two Thai citizens have been charged with ”feeding untrue information through a computer system which undermined the security of the nation”.  They have been accused of spreading rumours about the king’s health.  Apparently a translation of a Bloomberg article is at the heart of this case.  The accused are named Teeranun Wipuchanan (ธีรนันต์ วิภูชนันธ์) and Kata Pajajariyapong (คธา ปาจาจิริยะพงษ์).  New Mandala will, of course, be folowing their case closely.  And I will, for good measure, be mentioning their case and discussing its implications during my Thai Update presentation later this morning.

Our live coverage of the 2009 Thai Update held at the Australian National University (and organised by the National Thai Studies Centre) will start at about 9 AM today.

The program for the Update is here.

You can follow New Mandala’s Twitter posts about the Update on our Twitter page here.

If you want to follow all posts about the Update, I recommend that you use Twitterfall. Just go to the “searches” box on the left hand side of the Twitterfall page, enter #2009thaiupdate and watch the show. It’s very easy!

If you want to make your own Twitter posts about the Update, make sure you use our special “hashtag” (#2009thaiupdate) somewhere in your post.

If we have time, we will also try to do some brief blog updates on New Mandala itself.

Please note that New Mandala has not been involved in organising this event, so if you have any questions about availability of papers etc. contact the National Thai Studies Centre.