“Every one should feel at ease [about the economy]. People have money but they aren’t spending it. This makes it look as if the economy is contracting. But it is not. Every one is exercising the sufficiency philosophy”
- General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Head of the Council for National Security, quoted in “State of emergency still possible: Sonthi”, The Nation, 19 April 2007.
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I did not know Sonthi had this much sense of humor!
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Thank goodness he has a real economist on the staff, namely Finance Minister Chalongphob, who is quite clear and doesn’t
say things that contradict economic commonsense. Here is Chalongphob’s statement from Tokyo Club Foundation for Global Studies.
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Well, the first two sentences make some economics sense. But the last one kinda negate it all.
If sufficiency philosophy prevent people from spending (circulation of money), does that not mean it is not a good economics principle (Assuming country’s goal is for growth in economy, not contraction)?
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Perhaps what Sonthi was trying to say is that even though the economy is contracting, the sufficiency economy will protect us from this contraction. (Sometimes translations are wrong or people are quoted out of context)
In China public granaries used to store rice for public distribution during famines (i.e. economic contraction). This kind of social insurance, in the wake of the 1997 crisis, is a good thing.
…but “People have money but they aren’t spending it” means a decrease in consumption which all things equal causes economic contraction. This Keynesian multiplier is the first thing you learn in your first macroeconomics class. There are some facts about modern economies that all economists agree on.
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Protect from contraction? From the effect, might be; from causing it, might not.
Refer to ISLM model, assume people do have saving, Saving could relate to Investment; thus, still contribute to growth…blah blah blah… you get the point.
But that would need climate where saving equal investment. And in this time, I doubt domestic investment are high.
So in theory, “Sufficiency-type policy” might work well in curbing growth and put a reign on consumer-over spending. But that should be in rapid growth economy with high inflation and goal for contraction. Not a third-world economy with more than 50 GDP from export.
State co-op granaries and “sufficiency philosophy” are different things.
God, what I said above was boring. Wait, did I hear an indirect admission from the fuhrer that the economy is actually “contracting”? I just hope he does not take recession as a benchmark for successfully promoting “sufficiency philosophy”.
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Since this government has cut back on Thaksin’s/Pansak’s knowledge center stuff, they might turn their offices at the Emporium into rice granaries in case any famine develops here.
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“Since this government has cut back on Thaksin’s/Pansak’s knowledge center stuff, they might turn their offices at the Emporium into rice granaries in case any famine develops here.”
Maybe I shouldn’t laugh at my own analogy, but this comment sent me into laughter for several moments. I live down the street in Klong Toey from the Emporium and walking through there makes you realize how small most of our salaries are in Thailand. I used to regularly shop at the Emporium growing up in California but now it’s only a place to go gawk at the luxury goods!
More evidence that the Sonthi quote merely indicates that soldiers have to acquire PR skills, is that Chalongphob is planning fiscal stimulus measures (Keynesian government spending multiplier) after realisation that suddenly cutting back Thaksin’s populist program spending, apart from rural-urban equity issues, is contractionary fiscal policy.
[P.S. Build better roads and then maybe we can get more factories in Chiang Rai.]
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P.S. Maybe if they put the knowledge center at Morchit northern bus station they would remember that a huge fraction of Bangkok’s population, those who can’t stretch their salaries into an automobile purchase, including me, have to pass through this hell hole to visit their familes in the provinces, if they can even get to it, since it is not connected to the subway. and the small roads around it often can’t handle the traffic. In the rainy season rain sweeps over the people waiting for buses since the rooves barely cover them. That it clearly can’t handle the capacity is evidenced by two weeks before Songkran people had to wait in the bus parking places, shiffting around when buses came in, because the platform was jam-packed like sardines. People have to arrive early to buy the tickets they reserved so everyone is waiting all over the floors.
The knowledge center would give them to do during the 2 to 3 hour wait.
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