The International Institute for Strategic Studies publishes a monthly journal called Strategic Comments. In the most recent edition (July 2007: Volume 13, Issue 5) there is an overview of Thailand’s recent political history and an analysis of possible future directions. It is titled “Thailand’s political turmoil: A solution in sight?“
The article makes many points about the draft constitution, the insurgency in southern Thailand and the future of party politics. In this brief post I will focus on just two issues that it raises: the successor to Thai Rak Thai and scenarios for the post-CNS landscape.
According to its analysis:
…the banning of the [Thai Rak Thai]’s leading lights from politics will leave a huge gap in the ranks of any successor party and it seems likely that some disqualified TRT parliamentarians might be represented by their wives or other family members. Indeed, despite the shadow of possible corruption and tax-evasion charges, Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra, Thaksin’s wife, is the leading contender to take the helm of a party to succeed the TRT.
It goes on to conclude that:
The most optimistic scenario is for a return to government by the type of unstable coalition that characterised Thai politics before the rise of Thaksin and the TRT in the late 1990s.
What do New Mandala readers think? Is Prime Minister Pojaman anything like a realistic option? Is there a more optimistic scenario than 1990s-style coalitions of the willing? Is there any other solution in sight?
Thanks to regular New Mandala contributor and strategy expert Matthew Pennycook for drawing my attention to this interesting article.
3 responses so far ↓
1 observer // Jul 10, 2007 at 11:27 am
The junta will be able to convict Pojaman on something, whether or not there are grounds. Or if they pass the Internal Security Act, they can store her in an underground cell until she “hangs herself”. I don’t think Sonthi is quaking in his jackboots thinking about that threat.
I agree that a return to the late 1990’s type of politics is optimistic. Given that the junta will appoint all oversight agencies prior to the elections, appoint half the senators and then try to pass a dictator’s constitution that can only be changed with the approval of a majority of that same senate, calling the “elected” politicians a government is even a bit optimistic.
2 nganadeeleg // Jul 10, 2007 at 12:55 pm
From today’s Bangkok Post:
CDA accepts challenge to debate draft charter
Midnight University: public being deceived
MONGKOL BANGPRAPA
Cha-am _ The Constitution Drafting Assembly has accepted a challenge from Midnight University to debate the new constitution ahead of the planned Aug 19 referendum. Somchai Ruchupan, chairman of the panel tasked with publicising the draft charter, said he agreed with Midnight director Nidhi Eowseewong’s proposal for a debate between supporters and opponents of the draft.
This would give the public a better understanding of the issues. A format for the forum had still to be discussed, he added.
Charter writers and CDA members are gathering in this resort district of Phetchaburi to prepare a campaign on the draft charter.
Midnight University, an online academic forum operating out of Chiang Mai, is strongly opposed to the draft, which it says ”has so far failed to reflect the people’s opinions”.
”Broadcasting media under the control of the army and certain television stations have been misused by the state to convey false messages to persuade people to endorse the draft 2007 constitution,” a statement issued by the university said.
Other groups, including university students and Thai Rak Thai, also rejected the draft.
Constitution Drafting Committee secretary Somkid Lertpaithoon agreed a debate would allow people to hear both sides of the argument.
However, he did not think it should be broadcast on television as this would only create confusion among the public.
Any group had the right to campaign for the acceptance or rejection of the draft, but he did not agree with people opting to abstain from voting at the referendum. They should vote to either accept or reject it.
Mr Somkid said opponents of the draft should compare it with previous constitutions, particularly the 1997 charter, during the debate. They should not use the forum simply to attack the CDC.
Khomsan Phokhong, a CDA member, said although there were many groups opposed to the draft, both the CDA and CDC agreed it was perfect and believed the majority of the public would realise this and vote to accept it.
He urged those against accepting the draft to read all 309 articles before criticising it. It was not acceptable to simply oppose it without having read it thoroughly, Mr Khomsan said.
The CDC secretary denied the charter drafters had worked under the direction of the CNS. Many issues proposed by the CNS, such as provision for a non-elected prime minister, were not included. The draft states clearly that the prime minister must be elected, he said.
This meant that any military officers or CNS members wanting to become prime minister must contest the general election, he said.
An event not to be missed – hopefully New Mandala can get a ticket before they are sold out!
3 Historicus // Jul 10, 2007 at 8:37 pm
An interesting story. So was the one in the Nation that began:
Sonthi ‘has right to be a politician’
Ally of CNS chief says fight against Thai Rak Thai only half finished
Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas yesterday said Council for National Security chairman Sonthi Boonyaratglin had every right to enter politics at the next election. He added that Sonthi might consider it essential to ensure he achieves the objectives declared by the CNS.
Boonrawd said the objectives of the coup had yet to be fully achieved and the “old power clique was moving full steam to win the next election”. “It will pour everything into winning the election so it can come back. Nobody currently has as many resources as it does. We can see from its movements now that it must return,” he said. “It’s not what we planned. We planned to clear them out and clean up the dirt,” he added.
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