New Mandala readers who are following arguments about Thailand’s military backed constitution may find much food for thought in a recent article by Thongchai Winichakul. It has been published by Krungthep Turakij and is available from their website.
Thongchai begins by reflecting that “most people are probably getting bored with politics…” and ends with cautionary words about the implications of accepting the new constitution. His analysis is certainly worth a read.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Taxi Driver // Jul 21, 2007 at 7:27 pm
I agree with most of what Thongchai said in the article, of course. However, for the “No” campaign to win, I think it MUST also outline its plan for the post-referendum period.
Most Thais recognise that the country is at a crossroads. However, they are wary of taking the NO path. It is a path full of uncertainty and risk because there is no clarity about what happens next.
The YES path is a less risky path. It is a satisficing solution – Thais know that by voting YES the generals will still lurk in the background as the true power above the politicians (and the law), but most are prepared to ‘live with it’ as long as the generals are seen as more-or-less ‘khon dee’ (i.e. not too blatantly corrupt and are obedient to the King).
The uncertainty about what will happen if the NO vote wins the referendum is the greatest obstacle to it winning the referendum. The NO campaign must work out a plan and explain to the people its proposal for the post-referendum period. If it can articulate a sensible plan, I believe the NO campaign can win.
2 Srithanonchai // Jul 22, 2007 at 12:42 am
“Most Thais recognise that the country is at a crossroads.” I really doubt this.
3 Taxi Driver // Jul 23, 2007 at 2:17 pm
The electorate is smarter than you give them credit for, Srithanonchai. Most of them – whether rural or urban – do understand the significance of what is happening in the current struggle for power in Thai politics. Its just that a lot of them feel disempowered – they think there’s nothing they can do to effect the outcome.
But I sense more and more people seem to be less willing to accept the flaunting of rules by a small group (be it TRT or the military). There seems to be a growing sense developing at the grassroots level that all political players should ‘play by the rules’ – and surely this is a good thing to have come out of the debacle of the past 12-16 months. The ’social contract’ is getting stronger.
4 nganadeeleg // Jul 23, 2007 at 6:45 pm
But I sense more and more people seem to be less willing to accept the flaunting of rules by a small group (be it TRT or the military).
Would be a welcome change, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
If there really is a move away from the patronage system, then the ground should be ripe for a new force to emerge and take the ground that the Octoberists lost when they threw their hats in with Thaksin.
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