10.45 PM. This referendum is a lot closer than most people, including myself, expected. Given that there was no real choice the size of the no vote is striking. Here is a graph of the results based on the votes of about 20% of those registered to vote. The overall yes vote is running at 57.6% and the no vote at 40.5%. That’s enough for me for tonight! (PS – with 23% counted the yes vote has dipped slightly to57.1%. There seems to have been a bit of a downward trend in the yes vote for about an hour. I wonder if this reflects votes from more remote booths coming in. PPS – with much more up-to-date figures the Election Commission has the yes vote on 57.52%. Their figures indicate that the votes of 44% of those registered to vote have been counted.)
10.20 PM. According to the on line live update that national vote is running at about 58% yes; 40% no. The yes vote is well ahead in the south, the centre and Bangkok. The no vote is well ahead in the northeast. The vote in the north is running neck and neck.
9.50 PM. Ex-PM Banharn talks about the likelihood of a future coalition government.
9.30 PM (Canberra time). Head of the Democrat-except-when-you-can’t-win-an-election-and-then-a-coup-is-OK Party, Abhisit, interviewed. He wants to look forward. The referendum has been conducted well and the result has been accepted well. He will have to campaign hard. One commentator comments that the vote does not so much reflect acceptance of the constitution as a desire for political change.
9.15 PM. Chaturon Chaisaeng (in a red shirt) has thanked those who voted against the draft constitution. He accuses the government of blocking the no campaign and creating the impression that if the constitution did not pass there would be no election. But he and his colleagues will accept the result. General Sonthi interviewed. He just wants things to return to normal. Everyone should accept the result. He said that December is the month of “fathers’ day” [the kings birthday]. And there will be celebrations. Setting the date for the election is a matter for the Election Commission. He did not state clearly when there will be an election. He does not want to answer if he will be going into politics or not. Come back and ask him after 30 September. Sonthi thanks the people for accepting the draft constitution. The country will be in good order. We will get good politicians for sure!
9.00 PM. National vote. 59% yes; 39% no. This is based on 11.78% of the national total of the people who are registered to vote. At Thaksin’s home booth the vote was 100 yes; 300 no.
8.50 PM. Another interesting result. Chiang Mai: 43% yes; 57% no.
8.20 PM. The overall count has about a 60% yes vote. But there are striking regional differences. In the south there is a 90% yes vote. In the north the count is about equal. But in the northeast there is a 60% no vote. Given the size of the population in Isan this could make the final vote close.
7.55 PM. TITV is reporting that with about 700,000 votes counted the yes vote is 56% and the no vote 41%. They say the figures are “interesting.”
7.40 PM. Channel 11 reports that with about 2.5% of the vote counted the yes vote is 57.56%. Surayud has appeared on television to thank people for voting.
7.05 PM (Canberra time) Voters in Thailand have just finished casting their votes in the country’s first constitutional referendum. From my quick perusal of the news it seems that the voting has gone smoothly. There have been reports of protests in Chachoengsao, which should come as no surprise to regular New Mandala readers. In some provinces protesting voters who tore up ballot papers were arrested. There have also been claims of (shock! horror!) gambling on the referendum outcome in Isan. Those northeasterners just don’t know how to behave. Perhaps most important is the report that General Sonthi, after casting his vote, refused to rule out future military action against the constitution. As we know, according to the tenets of sufficiency democracy, voters’ decisions are only valued when, as in the case of this referendum, they have no meaningful choice. An ABAC survey predicts a 70:30 yes vote.
12 responses so far ↓
1 Bob // Aug 19, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Real time results here;
http://202.60.199.51/en/?zone=0
2 jeru // Aug 20, 2007 at 3:00 am
Look at it this way Andrew Walker: Thaksin won himself a winning football team (so far), but he lost everything else.
Only in the NorthEast was the NO vote winning. Everywhere else, the NOs (representing Thaksin, representing the banned TRT party), lost and lost big.
3 david w // Aug 20, 2007 at 5:52 am
Jeru,
Looking at the site posted in comment #1, I find it hard to see how the No vote lost big in the North. The Yes vote didn’t win by a large margin there at all, as the count stands at the moment. The Yes vote won by a huge margin in the South, obviously and a 2-1 margin in the Central region. As the vote stands right now.
4 Military Admirer // Aug 20, 2007 at 6:55 am
Jeru, it is great to see you making the best of a bad outcome for the military you seem to love and obey. So all of those no voters and those who didn’t bother to even show up count for nothing! And, they were all Thaksin supporters in your binary world. What monumental arrogance and blindness. I am betting that you’ll now be saddling up to support your military generals as they seek to take more extreme measures to ensure a particular outcome on the election. And that will be justified by this result; got to keep all them Thaksinites under control!
5 jeru // Aug 20, 2007 at 11:28 am
Military Admirer is bitter when he should have rejoiced at the Manchester City win vs. United.
Military Admirer too should have rejoiced that the ballot was able to decide how the junta should exit . . . orderly for the generals to fade away.
If Military Admirer wishes to count the ‘no shows’ as Thaksinites, ok and with the wish that with your new recount, your bitterness will be diminished.
The VOTE has spoken and the VOTE did not speak well of Thaksin.
6 Military Admirer // Aug 20, 2007 at 11:56 am
By the way, the “spin” is already being put in place. The Nation’s editorial says: “The outcome of the referendum did not put an end to the polarisation of Thai politics, which is split between the urban middle class and the rural poor. Although the majority of people in this country voted for the promulgation of the constitution drawn up by the military-appointed Constitution Drafting Assembly and passed by the National Legislative Assembly, it will take time to achieve normalisation of the political process.” This is dumb. Many urban people voted against the constitution and only 14 million of 45 million voted for the constitution. But, heck, what does that matter to the military-loving Nation editors.
7 nganadeeleg // Aug 20, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Now it’s business as usual, but look on the bright side:
- Thaksin is gone, but his policies are not forgotten (ignore at your peril)
- Samak or Chavalit for PM? (pity the PM’s term is limited to 8 years)
8 ThaiBloke // Aug 20, 2007 at 4:37 pm
The country has never been split so obviously. The new government needs very quickly to get its checkbook out and start developing something in the countryside. Schools, roads, hospitals all need to be built in the NE and the South.
There should be massive tax breaks for business in Isaan and the south, and a few of the Bangkok big wigs should go there and plant rice for a season or two just to see how dire life up there can be. Then they should start working together with Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos and Malaysia to get the damn duties down so that these regions can start becoming export bases with trade between these countries but with export bases in Isaan and the South not just peppered around Bangkok.
Thank god the PM term is only limited to 8 years, although this might simply mean that people try to fill their pockets that much quicker.
9 Military Admirer // Aug 20, 2007 at 10:11 pm
As usual Jeru misses the point/s. Let’s see if the military exit; highly doubtful. That this vote counts and earlier votes with larger turnouts somehow didn’t is and amazing contortion.
10 jeru // Aug 21, 2007 at 1:15 am
Military Admirer pines for yesteryears of past Thaksin glories (and honest mistakes?) but yesterday’s votes convincingly thumbed down as Thaksin infamies.
Did I miss a point? But I guess Military Admirer do not know how to count. By anybody’s counting fingers and toes, it was a LANDSLIDE defeat for Thaksin, and, for the TRT reds.
11 Military Admirer // Aug 21, 2007 at 4:23 am
Jeru, you just don’t want to understand. I am not a Thaksin admirer. The point has to do with fairness and the role of the military.
12 Mariner // Aug 22, 2007 at 12:01 am
Thank God for New Mandala! With the Bangkok Post (in particular) and the Nation simply too gutless to engage in objective political reporting I look to this website for authoritative news. It would be nice to contribute to the ongoing discussions but quite honestly I can’t risk deportation -for the moment, anyway.
HB
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