Comments on: A loose cannon in the “war room” http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/ New perspectives on mainland Southeast Asia Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:10:35 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Ex-Ajarn http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-152646 Ex-Ajarn Fri, 31 Aug 2007 05:13:28 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-152646 Word on the street (well, at least what I heard from the somtom lady on the corner) was that the public opinion was turning against the coup leaders (mostly due to their miserable economic record) and Thaksin's popularity seems to be returning. While their appears to be no reliable polling done in the country (ABAC polls grossly over represent the urban population), the PPP (TRT in disguise) seems to have a good chance of winning an outright majority if the upcoming elections (military dictatorships have a very poor record of holding free and fair elections) reflect the actual will of the people. If the PPP wins an absolute majority, there could be little doubt that Thaksin would return in triumph, something the coup leaders are deathly afraid of. As we get closer to “election” time, the possibility of another coup to once again stop an election from going forth (The last coup was not about corruption, it was about stopping the election which Thaksin was obviously going to win) appears to be a possibility. History teaches us military dictators (even those pulling the strings of the public puppets) do not easily give up power. As an observer, it as all fascinating, as a long-term resident without a guaranteed stream of income outside the country, it is all unsettling. I continue to be amazed by the outsiders who seem to know nothing of the empirical and anecdotal evidence of what happens to countries under a military dictatorship and continue to support rule by the gun as opposed to rule by the ballot box. About a week before the coup, I assigned a class here in Thailand to read a journal article about military dictatorships in Nigeria to give an example of qualitative research methodology. It was eerie going over the assignment after the coup. Same justifications, same techniques, same propaganda, same gullible people believing in the propaganda. Studies consistently show military takeovers are correlated with future unrest, violence, economic stagnation and repressions of freedom. So far, the military dictatorship here in Thailand fits the international pattern. What has the coup given to the people of Thailand (of those of us living on the Thai economy)? Repression, economic stagnation, increases in violence, especially in the deep south, increased corruption (even the “fine” for traffic violations by the police has increased and brothels are increasing springing up in residential neighborhoods in BKK), and a continuation of the political division. How do those who Word on the street (well, at least what I heard from the somtom lady on the corner) was that the public opinion was turning against the coup leaders (mostly due to their miserable economic record) and Thaksin’s popularity seems to be returning. While their appears to be no reliable polling done in the country (ABAC polls grossly over represent the urban population), the PPP (TRT in disguise) seems to have a good chance of winning an outright majority if the upcoming elections (military dictatorships have a very poor record of holding free and fair elections) reflect the actual will of the people. If the PPP wins an absolute majority, there could be little doubt that Thaksin would return in triumph, something the coup leaders are deathly afraid of. As we get closer to “election” time, the possibility of another coup to once again stop an election from going forth (The last coup was not about corruption, it was about stopping the election which Thaksin was obviously going to win) appears to be a possibility. History teaches us military dictators (even those pulling the strings of the public puppets) do not easily give up power. As an observer, it as all fascinating, as a long-term resident without a guaranteed stream of income outside the country, it is all unsettling.

I continue to be amazed by the outsiders who seem to know nothing of the empirical and anecdotal evidence of what happens to countries under a military dictatorship and continue to support rule by the gun as opposed to rule by the ballot box. About a week before the coup, I assigned a class here in Thailand to read a journal article about military dictatorships in Nigeria to give an example of qualitative research methodology. It was eerie going over the assignment after the coup. Same justifications, same techniques, same propaganda, same gullible people believing in the propaganda. Studies consistently show military takeovers are correlated with future unrest, violence, economic stagnation and repressions of freedom. So far, the military dictatorship here in Thailand fits the international pattern. What has the coup given to the people of Thailand (of those of us living on the Thai economy)? Repression, economic stagnation, increases in violence, especially in the deep south, increased corruption (even the “fine” for traffic violations by the police has increased and brothels are increasing springing up in residential neighborhoods in BKK), and a continuation of the political division. How do those who

]]> By: Fuel and fire in Burma http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-151174 Fuel and fire in Burma Wed, 29 Aug 2007 10:39:32 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-151174 [...] welcome any further insights from New Mandala readers. (And perhaps the ANU may be willing to host a delegation from the Burmese regime to provide us with an update on the political [...]

]]> By: Lleij Samuel Schwartz http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-150044 Lleij Samuel Schwartz Tue, 28 Aug 2007 05:13:55 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-150044 re nganadeeleg:> To be fair to the U.S. Civil Service, the vast majority of jobs are on the merit system. Nevertheless, I do favor the spoils system to a limited sense as a system of incentive. I think it's the lesser of two evils when compared to the British "<a href="http://www.yes-minister.com/" rel="nofollow">Yes, Minister</a>" style civil service. re nganadeeleg:> To be fair to the U.S. Civil Service, the vast majority of jobs are on the merit system. Nevertheless, I do favor the spoils system to a limited sense as a system of incentive. I think it’s the lesser of two evils when compared to the British “Yes, Minister” style civil service.

]]> By: Mariner http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149592 Mariner Mon, 27 Aug 2007 13:08:44 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149592 So, the date of the general election has been announced -Dec. 23, if I heard correctly. Any party which advertises itself as a proxy TRT is going to do well in the NE. So, I wonder, what's a hypocritical, self- serving politician to do? Will they turn round and say, 'well Taksin wasn't as bad as we've been telling you. In fact, really I rather liked the man.' The other question of course is whether the military have done enough to ensure that this time the election will produce the 'correct' result. So, the date of the general election has been announced -Dec. 23, if I heard correctly. Any party which advertises itself as a proxy TRT is going to do well in the NE. So, I wonder, what’s a hypocritical, self- serving politician to do? Will they turn round and say, ‘well Taksin wasn’t as bad as we’ve been telling you. In fact, really I rather liked the man.’
The other question of course is whether the military have done enough to ensure that this time the election will produce the ‘correct’ result.

]]> By: nganadeeleg http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149575 nganadeeleg Mon, 27 Aug 2007 12:00:59 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149575 LLS: I'm not so sure that's the pay-back that Republican has in mind. I think Jakrapob's declaration that someone has to 'pay' for what has happened is an ominous warning should they ever get back into power. BTW, the 'spoils system' looks like business as usual in Thailand (still looks offensive to me). LLS: I’m not so sure that’s the pay-back that Republican has in mind.
I think Jakrapob’s declaration that someone has to ‘pay’ for what has happened is an ominous warning should they ever get back into power.
BTW, the ’spoils system’ looks like business as usual in Thailand (still looks offensive to me).

]]> By: Lleij Samuel Schwartz http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149400 Lleij Samuel Schwartz Mon, 27 Aug 2007 03:50:32 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149400 Re: nganadeeleg> Well, if the "pay-back" only consists of cabinet, police, and army shuffles combined with a little <strike>income redistribution</strike>...err..."social justice" to the villagers up in the Northeast, then I would say that's fairly harmless. It would be nothing more offensive than the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoils_system" rel="nofollow">"spoils system"</a> of the U.S. If the "pay-back" he's thinking of consists of dragging yellowshirts from their homes and hanging them from the nearest lamppost, then, of course not. BTW... I wholeheartedly agree with your point about the PAD in the other thread. Re: nganadeeleg>
Well, if the “pay-back” only consists of cabinet, police, and army shuffles combined with a little income redistribution…err…”social justice” to the villagers up in the Northeast, then I would say that’s fairly harmless. It would be nothing more offensive than the “spoils system” of the U.S.

If the “pay-back” he’s thinking of consists of dragging yellowshirts from their homes and hanging them from the nearest lamppost, then, of course not.

BTW… I wholeheartedly agree with your point about the PAD in the other thread.

]]> By: fall http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149329 fall Mon, 27 Aug 2007 01:14:10 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149329 <i>...‘ Thaksin cracked his head’ in which case your comment is rather pro-War on Drugs</i> Definitely out of context, but never mind. Metaphentamine head, crack head, coke head, wise-ass, ignorant fool, etc. all relatively the same meaning. …‘ Thaksin cracked his head’ in which case your comment is rather pro-War on Drugs

Definitely out of context, but never mind. Metaphentamine head, crack head, coke head, wise-ass, ignorant fool, etc. all relatively the same meaning.

]]> By: ndanadeeleg http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149272 ndanadeeleg Sun, 26 Aug 2007 21:48:07 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149272 Lleij S- S-: So do you consider the 'pay-back' referred to by Republican to be part of the dynamism for healthy change & progress? Lleij S- S-: So do you consider the ‘pay-back’ referred to by Republican to be part of the dynamism for healthy change & progress?

]]> By: Lleij Samuel Schwartz http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149131 Lleij Samuel Schwartz Sun, 26 Aug 2007 11:42:13 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149131 Re:> nganadeeleg A healthy democracy is constantly in a state of "cold" civil war; it is from this dynamism that change and progress come. That's why calls for "unity," "harmony, and " solidarity," above all, are hallmarks of fascist regimes and bland, necrotic stagnation that accompanies them. WAR IS PEACE FREEDOM IS SLAVERY IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH Re:> nganadeeleg

A healthy democracy is constantly in a state of “cold” civil war; it is from this dynamism that change and progress come.

That’s why calls for “unity,” “harmony, and ” solidarity,” above all, are hallmarks of fascist regimes and bland, necrotic stagnation that accompanies them.

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

]]> By: nganadeeleg http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/comment-page-1/#comment-149058 nganadeeleg Sun, 26 Aug 2007 08:55:33 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/08/23/a-loose-cannon-in-the-war-room/#comment-149058 Republican: Sounds like you are hoping for civil war. All this barracking for Thaksin - are you angling for the chief executioners job? Republican: Sounds like you are hoping for civil war. All this barracking for Thaksin – are you angling for the chief executioners job?

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