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	<title>Comments on: Youtube&#8217;s privy politics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/</link>
	<description>New perspectives on mainland Southeast Asia</description>
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		<title>By: Republican</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-173890</link>
		<dc:creator>Republican</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2007 05:18:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-173890</guid>
		<description>Further to the attack on Fa Dio Kan&#039;s webboard (comment #20), the webboard has now been temporarily closed. See http://www.sameskybooks.org/infoshow.php?id=44 for the latest news on what is happening.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Further to the attack on Fa Dio Kan&#8217;s webboard (comment #20), the webboard has now been temporarily closed. See <a href="http://www.sameskybooks.org/infoshow.php?id=44" rel="nofollow">http://www.sameskybooks.org/infoshow.php?id=44</a> for the latest news on what is happening.</p>
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		<title>By: Sidh S.</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-173789</link>
		<dc:creator>Sidh S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2007 03:36:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-173789</guid>
		<description>Thanks Lleij Samuel Schwartz for the clarification.
However, personally I won&#039;t count AjarnPridi as one of the &quot;scoundrels&quot; and, as far as I have learnt, his intentions for Thai society have been honorable. FMPibul, AjarnPridi&#039;s collaborator and competition, did not wanted to merely &#039;govern&#039; Siam/Thailand - but also to &#039;rule&#039; it, so he was more in competition with the monarchy (at least at the height of his powers). It is GenSarit who many commentators credit with resusitating the monarchy - and here I disagree with you - which I see has mainly been a force for the good in a transforming Thai society. I am certain that one day the Thai monarchy will have a  respectable, apolitical role not different from Japan&#039;s royals - the building blocks of such a society are gradually falling into place (and as long as the &#039;cool heads&#039; hold sway, we might just get there sooner rather than later).

I generally agree with your comments on human trafficking and child sexual exploitation - but that is also such a highly complex issue in which much more qualified researchers/commentators have and are addressing. For instance, just being a relatively richer, politically stable country sharing thousands of kilometers of borders with some of the world&#039;s poorest (and for quite a long time, unstable polities) is a critical factor. It is a big challenge on how to deal with unethical capitalism - and again, it is a global issue not limited to Thailand&#039;s border. Thailand getting lots of global press on this is also partially due to the relatively free and open media (bar PMThaksin&#039;s and the CNS political related actions). Maybe if the elites are not sweeping this under the carpet, it&#039;s a good sign that they acknowledge the problems exists - but are, unfortunately, much too slow to redress it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Lleij Samuel Schwartz for the clarification.<br />
However, personally I won&#8217;t count AjarnPridi as one of the &#8220;scoundrels&#8221; and, as far as I have learnt, his intentions for Thai society have been honorable. FMPibul, AjarnPridi&#8217;s collaborator and competition, did not wanted to merely &#8216;govern&#8217; Siam/Thailand &#8211; but also to &#8216;rule&#8217; it, so he was more in competition with the monarchy (at least at the height of his powers). It is GenSarit who many commentators credit with resusitating the monarchy &#8211; and here I disagree with you &#8211; which I see has mainly been a force for the good in a transforming Thai society. I am certain that one day the Thai monarchy will have a  respectable, apolitical role not different from Japan&#8217;s royals &#8211; the building blocks of such a society are gradually falling into place (and as long as the &#8216;cool heads&#8217; hold sway, we might just get there sooner rather than later).</p>
<p>I generally agree with your comments on human trafficking and child sexual exploitation &#8211; but that is also such a highly complex issue in which much more qualified researchers/commentators have and are addressing. For instance, just being a relatively richer, politically stable country sharing thousands of kilometers of borders with some of the world&#8217;s poorest (and for quite a long time, unstable polities) is a critical factor. It is a big challenge on how to deal with unethical capitalism &#8211; and again, it is a global issue not limited to Thailand&#8217;s border. Thailand getting lots of global press on this is also partially due to the relatively free and open media (bar PMThaksin&#8217;s and the CNS political related actions). Maybe if the elites are not sweeping this under the carpet, it&#8217;s a good sign that they acknowledge the problems exists &#8211; but are, unfortunately, much too slow to redress it.</p>
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		<title>By: Lleij Samuel Schwartz</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-173008</link>
		<dc:creator>Lleij Samuel Schwartz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:51:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-173008</guid>
		<description>Re: Sidh&gt; &lt;i&gt;Lleij Samuel Schwartz, I gather you must own an export business in Bangkok. If so, I extend my sympathies.&lt;/i&gt;

Huh? I  don&#039;t know where you came up with that conclusion. I&#039;m actually a linguist and language educator by trade, specializing in socio-pedagogy and intercultural pragmatics. 

&lt;i&gt;You must be more advanced in your practice.&lt;/i&gt;  I certainly don&#039;t claim to be an arhant; (Besides, I&#039;ve already pledged myself to the Bodhisvatta vows.) however, I could be more advanced in my practice than you, or I could not. I&#039;d rather not discuss that subject in a public forum; if you&#039;d like, I&#039;d be more than happy to continue that discussion by e-mail. 

&lt;i&gt;“Just as it’s simplistic and convenient to blame the West/America/et al. for all of Thailand’s ills, as you do.” Do tell where I did that or please read my post more carefully&lt;/i&gt; 

I read your posts most carefully, and where you say that is when you state: &lt;i&gt;This is the context that I view Paul Handey’s book - the aim is neo-colonialism which is to ‘civilize’, ’sterilize’ the Thais. It want [sic] to convert the Mahidols into the Windsors, it want [sic] to convert the animist Thais from their magical mumbo-jumbo, the idolatory, the Jatukam Ramathep, Palad Khik and Buddhist amulet nonsense. It [Western &quot;neo-colonialism&quot;] wants to do that through belittlement - to make Thais a global laughing stock for worshipping a ‘false god’ (and by extension all false gods/spirits). It is clearly uncomfortable with Thai culture and identity and its long historical links to the monarchy. It can’t wait for Thai society to become ‘modern’ and ‘developed’ to become like ‘us’ in the West.&lt;/i&gt;

However, I do duly  note you comment in #4

&lt;i&gt;And where have I wrote the monarchy is above criticism?&lt;/i&gt; 

I never claimed you wrote that. I merely stated that criticism of the monarchy is problematic for someone of your religious creed. Noteing that, I think we agree on more that we disagree. I wholeheartedly agree with you when you write:&lt;i&gt;There were so many figures and agents as influential and critical, for better and for worse, particularly at the pinnacle of their careers (AjarnPridi Bhanomyong, FM P.Pibulsongkram, Sarit and a very long line of generals up to the present GenSonthi; the many godfathers and tycoons whether in the city or provinces up to the present PMThaksin…etc…etc…). We have to clearly diffentiate here - HM the King is not running the country (he never did) - at any time, a large ‘alliance of interests’ is.&lt;/i&gt; However, unlike you, I think the cult of personality that formulates your religion supports the tyranny of the stratocracy rather than tempers it. (For it combines both the first and last refuge of scoundrels: patriotism and religion). Indeed, if the Chakris were seen as more like the Windors, then these &quot;scoundrels&quot; [i.e. Pridi, Pibulsongkram, Sarit, et al.] wouldn&#039;t be able to use the &lt;i&gt;karmaphala&lt;/i&gt; generated by the good deeds of His Majesty, the King, to obfuscate their own nefarious deeds.

With &lt;i&gt;metta&lt;/i&gt;,
Lleij

P.S. Thailand is  not &quot; a global laughing stock for worshipping a &#039;false god&#039;&quot; Thailand is a global laughing stock due to its unconscionable refusal to seriously combat the human trafficking and child sexual exploitation that occurs inside its borders.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Sidh&gt; <i>Lleij Samuel Schwartz, I gather you must own an export business in Bangkok. If so, I extend my sympathies.</i></p>
<p>Huh? I  don&#8217;t know where you came up with that conclusion. I&#8217;m actually a linguist and language educator by trade, specializing in socio-pedagogy and intercultural pragmatics. </p>
<p><i>You must be more advanced in your practice.</i>  I certainly don&#8217;t claim to be an arhant; (Besides, I&#8217;ve already pledged myself to the Bodhisvatta vows.) however, I could be more advanced in my practice than you, or I could not. I&#8217;d rather not discuss that subject in a public forum; if you&#8217;d like, I&#8217;d be more than happy to continue that discussion by e-mail. </p>
<p><i>“Just as it’s simplistic and convenient to blame the West/America/et al. for all of Thailand’s ills, as you do.” Do tell where I did that or please read my post more carefully</i> </p>
<p>I read your posts most carefully, and where you say that is when you state: <i>This is the context that I view Paul Handey’s book &#8211; the aim is neo-colonialism which is to ‘civilize’, ’sterilize’ the Thais. It want [sic] to convert the Mahidols into the Windsors, it want [sic] to convert the animist Thais from their magical mumbo-jumbo, the idolatory, the Jatukam Ramathep, Palad Khik and Buddhist amulet nonsense. It [Western "neo-colonialism"] wants to do that through belittlement &#8211; to make Thais a global laughing stock for worshipping a ‘false god’ (and by extension all false gods/spirits). It is clearly uncomfortable with Thai culture and identity and its long historical links to the monarchy. It can’t wait for Thai society to become ‘modern’ and ‘developed’ to become like ‘us’ in the West.</i></p>
<p>However, I do duly  note you comment in #4</p>
<p><i>And where have I wrote the monarchy is above criticism?</i> </p>
<p>I never claimed you wrote that. I merely stated that criticism of the monarchy is problematic for someone of your religious creed. Noteing that, I think we agree on more that we disagree. I wholeheartedly agree with you when you write:<i>There were so many figures and agents as influential and critical, for better and for worse, particularly at the pinnacle of their careers (AjarnPridi Bhanomyong, FM P.Pibulsongkram, Sarit and a very long line of generals up to the present GenSonthi; the many godfathers and tycoons whether in the city or provinces up to the present PMThaksin…etc…etc…). We have to clearly diffentiate here &#8211; HM the King is not running the country (he never did) &#8211; at any time, a large ‘alliance of interests’ is.</i> However, unlike you, I think the cult of personality that formulates your religion supports the tyranny of the stratocracy rather than tempers it. (For it combines both the first and last refuge of scoundrels: patriotism and religion). Indeed, if the Chakris were seen as more like the Windors, then these &#8220;scoundrels&#8221; [i.e. Pridi, Pibulsongkram, Sarit, et al.] wouldn&#8217;t be able to use the <i>karmaphala</i> generated by the good deeds of His Majesty, the King, to obfuscate their own nefarious deeds.</p>
<p>With <i>metta</i>,<br />
Lleij</p>
<p>P.S. Thailand is  not &#8221; a global laughing stock for worshipping a &#8216;false god&#8217;&#8221; Thailand is a global laughing stock due to its unconscionable refusal to seriously combat the human trafficking and child sexual exploitation that occurs inside its borders.</p>
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		<title>By: Sidh S.</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-172656</link>
		<dc:creator>Sidh S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 07:51:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-172656</guid>
		<description>Lleij Samuel Schwartz, I gather you must own an export business in Bangkok. If so,  I extend my sympathies.

Also thanks for identifying my schizophrenia! You must be more advanced in your practice (maybe an arahant?) - while my &#039;vessel&#039; towards Buddhist nirvana is, as you put it, schizoprenic. 

&quot;Just as it’s simplistic and convenient to blame the West/America/et al. for all of Thailand’s ills, as you do.&quot; Do tell where I did that or please read my post more carefully (note that in #4 I also wrote &quot;...We all are and we are all accountable for the problems of the world today&quot;).

And where have I wrote the monarchy is above criticism? I merely called for a more comprehensve, evenhanded and careful treatment that considers historical and cultural contexts. Besides, my position has been clear in a previous post - good karma has to be earned.

With an attitude that puts down &quot;Pious devaracha-worshiping animist&quot; could be a possible reason you are &quot;suffering&quot; in Thailand mate. Move to Australia!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lleij Samuel Schwartz, I gather you must own an export business in Bangkok. If so,  I extend my sympathies.</p>
<p>Also thanks for identifying my schizophrenia! You must be more advanced in your practice (maybe an arahant?) &#8211; while my &#8216;vessel&#8217; towards Buddhist nirvana is, as you put it, schizoprenic. </p>
<p>&#8220;Just as it’s simplistic and convenient to blame the West/America/et al. for all of Thailand’s ills, as you do.&#8221; Do tell where I did that or please read my post more carefully (note that in #4 I also wrote &#8220;&#8230;We all are and we are all accountable for the problems of the world today&#8221;).</p>
<p>And where have I wrote the monarchy is above criticism? I merely called for a more comprehensve, evenhanded and careful treatment that considers historical and cultural contexts. Besides, my position has been clear in a previous post &#8211; good karma has to be earned.</p>
<p>With an attitude that puts down &#8220;Pious devaracha-worshiping animist&#8221; could be a possible reason you are &#8220;suffering&#8221; in Thailand mate. Move to Australia!</p>
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		<title>By: Restorationist</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-171677</link>
		<dc:creator>Restorationist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 17:42:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-171677</guid>
		<description>Vichai N. Sorry to belabour the point, but Andrew asked: &quot;do you think Thaksin made the birthday video?&quot;

You replied: &quot;Andrew (#9) asks whether I believe vindictive Thaksin was capable of stooping so low purvey malicious anti-monarchy videos? I believe Thaksin Shinawatra was capable of stooping much lower Andrew Walker.&quot;

So you didn&#039;t answer the question. What you did was create your own question and answered that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Vichai N. Sorry to belabour the point, but Andrew asked: &#8220;do you think Thaksin made the birthday video?&#8221;</p>
<p>You replied: &#8220;Andrew (#9) asks whether I believe vindictive Thaksin was capable of stooping so low purvey malicious anti-monarchy videos? I believe Thaksin Shinawatra was capable of stooping much lower Andrew Walker.&#8221;</p>
<p>So you didn&#8217;t answer the question. What you did was create your own question and answered that.</p>
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		<title>By: Republican</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-171219</link>
		<dc:creator>Republican</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 10:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-171219</guid>
		<description>On the subject of the propaganda war, Fa Dio Kan&#039;s webboard appears to have just come under attack by irate royalist bloggers. They are clogging up the webboard with large numbers of obscene or abusive posts. Check out the chaos at: http://www.sameskybooks.org/webboard/webboard.php?Category=sameskybooks&amp;page=1</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the subject of the propaganda war, Fa Dio Kan&#8217;s webboard appears to have just come under attack by irate royalist bloggers. They are clogging up the webboard with large numbers of obscene or abusive posts. Check out the chaos at: <a href="http://www.sameskybooks.org/webboard/webboard.php?Category=sameskybooks&amp;page=1" rel="nofollow">http://www.sameskybooks.org/webboard/webboard.php?Category=sameskybooks&amp;page=1</a></p>
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		<title>By: Lleij Samuel Schwartz</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-171110</link>
		<dc:creator>Lleij Samuel Schwartz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 08:43:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-171110</guid>
		<description>Re: Republican&gt;

&lt;i&gt;Also, it’s quite easy for people to save the clips and circulate them themselves. It’s virtually impossible to ban this kind of stuff.&lt;/i&gt;

Maybe it&#039;s this realization that is the real reason why Sittichai P. resigned so quickly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Republican&gt;</p>
<p><i>Also, it’s quite easy for people to save the clips and circulate them themselves. It’s virtually impossible to ban this kind of stuff.</i></p>
<p>Maybe it&#8217;s this realization that is the real reason why Sittichai P. resigned so quickly.</p>
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		<title>By: Vichai N</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-170676</link>
		<dc:creator>Vichai N</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 01:48:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-170676</guid>
		<description>Restorationist I already answered Andrew&#039;s question in #14 . . read it again.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Restorationist I already answered Andrew&#8217;s question in #14 . . read it again.</p>
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		<title>By: Restorationist</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-170307</link>
		<dc:creator>Restorationist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Sep 2007 18:55:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-170307</guid>
		<description>Like Republican, I agree that Thaksin supporters probably produced the videos. My question though is how much of a battle is going on inside the palace? Prem must be copping some flak through all of this. One can imagine that the crown prince would want to blame someone for the leaking of what is essentially a family video. Is he blaming Prem? Does this mean that there could be an alliance  between the prince and some Thaksin people? We all know the earlier rumours about the prince, Thaksin and the king. So throw all that into the political mix, and the palace must be experiencing a degree of concern.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like Republican, I agree that Thaksin supporters probably produced the videos. My question though is how much of a battle is going on inside the palace? Prem must be copping some flak through all of this. One can imagine that the crown prince would want to blame someone for the leaking of what is essentially a family video. Is he blaming Prem? Does this mean that there could be an alliance  between the prince and some Thaksin people? We all know the earlier rumours about the prince, Thaksin and the king. So throw all that into the political mix, and the palace must be experiencing a degree of concern.</p>
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		<title>By: Republican</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-privy-politics/comment-page-1/#comment-170139</link>
		<dc:creator>Republican</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Sep 2007 16:15:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/20/youtubes-royal-politics/#comment-170139</guid>
		<description>A friend had an interesting theory on the videos. There is little doubt that they were produced by Thai Rak Thai or its supporters. The production is quite professional and the message is almost the same as that of the PTV-Thai Rak Thai-organized demonstrations a few months ago at Sanam Luang which ended with the march on Prem’s house: blame everything on Prem while absolving the monarchy from any responsibility. Another interesting aspect is that the videos were released onto YouTube not long after the ICT lifted its ban on the site.  It’s kind of like saying, “we’re back”. Even if they ban these latest videos it is pretty likely that new ones would appear soon enough, if not on YouTube and in this form then somewhere else on the web in the same or other forms. Also, it’s quite easy for people to save the clips and circulate them themselves. It’s virtually impossible to ban this kind of stuff.

To interpret the video we have to consider the current political situation. You would have to think that Thai Rak Thai is winning the propaganda war right now. Things are going pretty terribly for the government and the junta. Politically Thai Rak Thai are looking good. The Democrats and Chat Thai will be branded as the parties that supported the dictatorship. Phalang Prachachon has a good chance of being the largest party in parliament after the next election, unless the military carries out some crackdown on the party or there is a blatant attempt to rig the elections, both of which are risky strategies. Samak has already publicly promised that if Phalang Prachachon wins government they will issue an amnesty for the 111 executives of Thai Rak Thai that were banned from politics by the Constitutional Tribunal. Then, perhaps a dissolution of parliament could be engineered, followed by new elections in which the Thai Rak Thai politicians could contest – under whatever name – with a promise to abrogate “the Dictators’ Constitution” and return to the “Peoples’ Constitution” of 1997. Presumably Thai Rak Thai would win again, and we would be back to the situation before the coup. Once Phalang Prachachon-Thai Rak Thai was in power a purge of the royalists, especially in the military, would then take place. Also, one would think that they would crack down on the Privy Council. Prem would have to go. Another factor in Thai Rak Thai’s favour is the international image of the government and the junta, which is at its lowest ebb and is getting worse. Worst of all for them, the monarchy’s role in the coup, and its stance vis-à-vis democracy in Thailand is becoming the object of increasing international media attention, which will have an effect on the monarchy’s domestic image. This was a key theme of the YouTube videos. If the military and the royalists were to intervene again in some way the international response would be far stronger than the mild reprimand last September. Thaksin, on the other hand, is projecting the image of a true democrat and neo-liberal globalizer – exactly what the international community wants – while at the same time demonstrating to his supporters at hom his nationalism, willingness to compromise and loyalty to the throne. 

So things are very bad now for the coup plotters and the monarchy. Thus the videos can be seen as offering a deal to the Palace: you can take the easy way out and let Prem and the junta and the other coup plotters be the fall guys for everything that has happened, and let us back. Or, we have the power to make things very difficult for you, not least by publicly implicating you in the coup on the Internet and showing to the world that you are the real obstacle to democracy in Thailand.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A friend had an interesting theory on the videos. There is little doubt that they were produced by Thai Rak Thai or its supporters. The production is quite professional and the message is almost the same as that of the PTV-Thai Rak Thai-organized demonstrations a few months ago at Sanam Luang which ended with the march on Prem’s house: blame everything on Prem while absolving the monarchy from any responsibility. Another interesting aspect is that the videos were released onto YouTube not long after the ICT lifted its ban on the site.  It’s kind of like saying, “we’re back”. Even if they ban these latest videos it is pretty likely that new ones would appear soon enough, if not on YouTube and in this form then somewhere else on the web in the same or other forms. Also, it’s quite easy for people to save the clips and circulate them themselves. It’s virtually impossible to ban this kind of stuff.</p>
<p>To interpret the video we have to consider the current political situation. You would have to think that Thai Rak Thai is winning the propaganda war right now. Things are going pretty terribly for the government and the junta. Politically Thai Rak Thai are looking good. The Democrats and Chat Thai will be branded as the parties that supported the dictatorship. Phalang Prachachon has a good chance of being the largest party in parliament after the next election, unless the military carries out some crackdown on the party or there is a blatant attempt to rig the elections, both of which are risky strategies. Samak has already publicly promised that if Phalang Prachachon wins government they will issue an amnesty for the 111 executives of Thai Rak Thai that were banned from politics by the Constitutional Tribunal. Then, perhaps a dissolution of parliament could be engineered, followed by new elections in which the Thai Rak Thai politicians could contest – under whatever name – with a promise to abrogate “the Dictators’ Constitution” and return to the “Peoples’ Constitution” of 1997. Presumably Thai Rak Thai would win again, and we would be back to the situation before the coup. Once Phalang Prachachon-Thai Rak Thai was in power a purge of the royalists, especially in the military, would then take place. Also, one would think that they would crack down on the Privy Council. Prem would have to go. Another factor in Thai Rak Thai’s favour is the international image of the government and the junta, which is at its lowest ebb and is getting worse. Worst of all for them, the monarchy’s role in the coup, and its stance vis-à-vis democracy in Thailand is becoming the object of increasing international media attention, which will have an effect on the monarchy’s domestic image. This was a key theme of the YouTube videos. If the military and the royalists were to intervene again in some way the international response would be far stronger than the mild reprimand last September. Thaksin, on the other hand, is projecting the image of a true democrat and neo-liberal globalizer – exactly what the international community wants – while at the same time demonstrating to his supporters at hom his nationalism, willingness to compromise and loyalty to the throne. </p>
<p>So things are very bad now for the coup plotters and the monarchy. Thus the videos can be seen as offering a deal to the Palace: you can take the easy way out and let Prem and the junta and the other coup plotters be the fall guys for everything that has happened, and let us back. Or, we have the power to make things very difficult for you, not least by publicly implicating you in the coup on the Internet and showing to the world that you are the real obstacle to democracy in Thailand.</p>
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