Thaksin’s return to Thailand, with scenes of adulation normally reserved for royalty, underlines the abject failure of the September 2006 coup. Those who reassured themselves with the rationale that Thaksin represented a greater evil than military intervention must now face the prospect that his long-term political capital may well have been strengthened by the events of the past 15 months. And those who celebrated the political exile of his 111 Thai Rak Thai colleagues must now be wondering if the court’s decision paved the way for a government team even less to their liking.
Several times over the past 15 months Thaksin has vowed that he has no future in politics. It is hard to take his undertakings seriously. As my colleague at the ANU, Peter Jackson, wrote a few years ago, Thai public life operates according to a “regime of images” whereby there is no necessary correspondence between public stances and private manoeuvres. What counts in public is that the right thing is said at the right time. As usual, Thaksin is working the public imagery cleverly. He can afford to bide his time and present himself as a loyal servant returning to his beloved homeland. Of course, when the time comes for Thaksin to take on a more formal political role there will be those that protest about his dishonesty given his previous promises of retirement. But their charges will have little traction in the court of public opinion. That’s how the “regime of images” works.
18 responses so far ↓
1 Srithanonchai // Feb 28, 2008 at 11:00 pm
A perhaps strengthened Thaksin and a poorly qualified cabinet: So much for the unintended consequences of intended actions.
“What counts in public is that the right thing is said at the right time.” >> This does not seem to be much different from open politics anywhere; it is not specific to Thailand. Look to George W Bush for a “regime of images.”
2 jonfernquest // Feb 29, 2008 at 5:22 am
The real unseen heroes of the moment are the boys in khaki.
Sonthi’s boys.
They could have thrown a monkey wrench in the works but they didn’t
Good on you mates.
3 amberwaves // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:24 am
I’m not sure whether he spoke about it, but the printed English-language statement Thaksin issued Thursday mentioned the 2006 car bomb case (allegedly directed at him) , briefly, in a paragraph about his security.
Those who think the plot was simply a concoction of Thaksin will likely take it as another example of his chutzpah.
However, his remark that the case was still open suggests strongly to me that there is some pretty hard evidence around (I’d bet tapes) which might embarrass some influential people should push come to shove.
Or perhaps I missed some obscure and unreported developments in this case. Can anyone enlighten us?
P.S. Pretty interesting as well, though buried in the Bangkok Post’s About Politics column on Thursday, was a tale about rumored army snipers, including these assertions:
…” However, to make sure the command would not be involved in any plot to kill Mr Thaksin, Gen Anupong has ordered Lt-Gen Sunai to report to him the number of special warfare officers who specialise in using sniper rifles and where they are.
Gen Anupong even checked the number of weapons in the command’s arsenal in Lop Buri province himself when he presided over celebrations of the Special Warfare Day.
He also transferred special warfare officers who use sniper rifles who served as Gen Sonthi’s bodyguards while he was army chief and chairman of the CNS back to barracks . “…
4 Dog Lover // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:34 am
What on earth is jonfernquest getting at? Do you mean that if the military doesn’t get in the way just at this moment , then they are heroes? I don’t get it.
5 nganadeeleg // Feb 29, 2008 at 10:57 am
“Of course, when the time comes for Thaksin to take on a more formal political role there will be those that protest about his dishonesty given his previous promises of retirement. But their charges will have little traction in the court of public opinion. That’s how the “regime of images” works.”
Hopefully, Paul Handley will still around to write another book:
“The President never had to tell the truth”
6 Observer // Feb 29, 2008 at 1:09 pm
The Bangkok Post story is here:
http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/28Feb2008_news98.php
So, Jon, the possibility that only part of the military wanted to murder Thakin makes them unseen heroes?
I nominate this for most repulsive comment on the web today.
Considering the broad speculation that the 2006 car bomb incident was a previous attempt at murder, it seems these new reports should be taken seriously.
7 BangkokDan // Feb 29, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Still, maybe Thaksin came back to a different country.
His absence made him the hero of everything. Presence though requires actions – his limits may be tested.
The media and civil society won’t give in that easily this time around to attempts of intimidation – and then there’s always the great unknown Samak.
Key now is: How independent/dependent is Samak?
Another PM Thaksin may be in the making – not because this would be the will of the people, but the people get what they’re paid for.
8 Teth // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Jon, if you were to praise somebody every time they do something they’re supposed to, you’ll be out of breath really soon.
“You’re a hero, floor cleaner! You’ve cleaned the floor!”
“Let me drink to you, barman, you’ve poured a perfect pint!”
“Credit to the media! You actually managed to report significant, relevant news without bias and with actual evidence!” Hang on a minute…
9 Sidh S. // Feb 29, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Considering this “regime of images”, in December before the elections, I expected PMThaksin’s return to be a much grander affair, hundreds of thousands of supporters and live concerts – maybe even the whole triumphant Manchester City team with either the League Cup, FA Cup or a fourth spot in the Premiership. Circumstances seemed to have changed to make PMThaksin decide on an earlier return (MC’s and PMSamak’s performance, Yuth “the fridge” red card etc…etc…)… I won’t dwell any more on that – but there is a cause to celebrate considering the court cases against PMThaksin will now progress (even if power and money may hold sway again at the end of the day, but as BangkokDan noted, the media and civil society will follow this very, very closely). On this occasion, it is about the “regime of images” as AW suggested.
Of all past and present Thai politians, only PMThaksin actually mastered this “regime of images” on par with the world’s best (American politics comes to mind as Srithanonchai noted). The buying of Manchester City FC alone makes for an excellent case study. I will give just one example of this – a few months ago, Sven-Goran Ericksson, MC’s manager flew to Thailand to buy three promising Thai national footballers, which made headlines in the country. The question is where are they now? Last I heard they were farmed out to the Swiss league but may still not get to play (I have no doubt, if PMThaksin has his way, they’ll feature in some matches – but he couldn’t ‘buy’ English working permits)…
Yesterday on PMThaksin’s return to Thailand, he flew in with two MC players – goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel and midfielder Kelvin Etuhu. Schmeichel has this to say:
“He is a very genuine guy with very genuine feelings for the club. City lie very close to his heart and the way he has supported the club since he came in has proved that.”
The coup-makers and their constitution writers didn’t seem to think that at all – and we have a constitution that is designed narrowly to clamp down on one man’s demonstrated excesses. It is a less democratic constitution for a less democratic leader. Base on that analysis, I maintain that it is common wisdom that PMThaksin was expected to come back to politics all along… The fact that the party wasn’t that big (at least as I have visualized it) already speaks volumes.
10 Regime of images « Rule of Lords // Feb 29, 2008 at 4:02 pm
[...] Andrew Walker, The return of the king, New [...]
11 Teth // Mar 1, 2008 at 6:25 am
“but he couldn’t ‘buy’ English working permits” – Sidh, you speak as if the British bureaucracy is a shining beacon we should aspire to. You’re having a laugh.
An independent commission comes out every week, perhaps, slagging the government or top civil servants.
And people like the FA illustrate the British bureaucracy’s general idiocy, really. They can choose to be “nice” to someone and completely anal to another…
12 Thad Williamson // Mar 1, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Sidh is presumably referring to the FA’s rules on giving permits to non-EU players, which actually are pretty rigorously and consistently enforced (though occasional exceptions are made). The Thai players Manchester City have signed are nowhere close to meeting the requirements for a permit, hence they’ve been farmed out to the affiliates.
Thaksin does appear to have played his hand pretty brilliantly over the last 9 months or so.
13 jonfernquest // Mar 1, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Teth wrote: “…if you were to praise somebody every time they do something they’re supposed to, you’ll be out of breath really soon.”
The historical pattern is political involvement of military followed by less political involvement, from coup maker rent seeker to narrowly focused professional soldier.
This pattern holds true almost everywhere I look.
South Korea used to be ruled by a brutal military regime.
The military has made the transition to professional army.
Same in Chile. In the Phillipines coups don’t seem to be as
effective as they used to and non-military PMs are the norm.
I would start with the historical pattern, then go to what should be the case. What should be the case should have a reasonable relation to what can be the case.
If you look at this way, Sonthi and the rest of the coup makers are heroes for not pressing it further and the forces that be in Thai society will recognise this and at least not punish them for this. It could have been a lot worse.
14 Teth // Mar 1, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Jon, I know what you mean, but I had hoped your standards were higher. To call them “heroes” is WAYYY over the top, first, because they seriously undermined the country for their own greed (not only for money but for power). Secondly, they knew they could not have stayed on with the current state of civil politics which is why they tried underhand tactics like the NLA law machine or the new security bill. So they were pretty much forced to do what they’ve done.
Heroes? No. All they deserve is no revenge since they actually kept their promise.
15 Dog Lover // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:27 pm
jonfernquest : Let me get this right. The military leaders who ran a coup in the name of preserving democracy and protecting the monarchy and thereby overthrew a popularly elected and popular government (albeit one that was flawed in many ways), imposed martial law, fixed a constitution and so on are heroes. They are heroes because they did not do worse than this. They they broke the law and scrapped a constitution and then passed laws to protect themselves makes them somehow unpunishable. Yeh, right.
16 jonfernquest // Mar 2, 2008 at 3:12 pm
“Let me get this right. The military leaders who ran a coup in the name of preserving democracy and protecting the monarchy and thereby overthrew a popularly elected and popular government (albeit one that was flawed in many ways), imposed martial law, fixed a constitution and so on are heroes.”
Yep. May not seem like it now, but give historians some time.
A bloodless coup nowadays makes a hero. Soldiers kill people. That’s their job. That they’ve learned to **not kill** people in certain contexts is noteworthy and praiseworthy.
I remember a lecture by McCoy on torture in the Phillipines at SEASSI at University of Wisconsin in which he described an interview with Gringo Honasan with his aquarium of piranhas and James Bond toys in the background. When soldiers start acting in ways worthy of respect, they are heroes.
If you can see the implicit contradictions and ironies of events over
the last year and a half, maybe you should look a little closer.
17 Dog Lover // Mar 3, 2008 at 12:31 am
johnfernquest: “That they’ve learned to **not kill** people in certain contexts is noteworthy and praiseworthy.” When they learn not to kill civilians in contexts such as Tak Bai maybe then they deserve some praise. To praise them for – at the moment – not ” hav[ing] thrown a monkey wrench in the works but they didn’t” seems giving them way, way too much credit. Historically, they are unworthy of praise or respect. Presently, one act of (presumed) good judgment hardly constitutes an historical watershed.
18 Teth // Mar 3, 2008 at 1:51 am
Jon, from your latest post, I really hope you see my point with regards to your standards for calling people heroes.
“When soldiers start acting in ways worthy of respect, they are heroes.” — Such a way is by not staging a coup. But if Sonthi had never staged a coup, you would’ve never called him a hero. I stand by my point that you cannot begin calling everyone a hero just for doing their job. They have to do their job in exceptional and treacherous circumstances, display bravery and adherence to their principles for them to be called heroes.
The Generals such as Sonthi or Saprang? No, their job was not to stage a coup or seize power. And no, what they did didn’t help anybody nor was it a display of bravery of courage or lofty principles.
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