True, totalitarian rule and capitalism is a deadly mix. Il Duce and the Fuhrer were the extreme examples, and the Burmese junta is just as detrimental to the nation it rules over though not a threat at least not directly to the region. Burma, let’s not forget, is historically a natural land empire similar to Russia and China, her expansionism at its height in the latter part of the 18th C and the earlier part of the 19th C before she came to grief when she took on the industrial might of the British Empire.

If you are so interested in the civil war in Burma I’d suggest you look up “Panglong Conference” and “Communist Party of Burma” in Wiki for some background. I have no idea how to get the links up here without crashing! Martin Smith’s “Burma – Insugency and the Politics of Ethnicity ” 1991 Zed Books, London, is a definitive reference on the subject. It is a three way struggle between the government and army dominated by Socialists from the early days of independence on one side and the CPB and the nationalities on the other. United fronts come and go among the rebels, the latest one pointedly excluding the CPB as just another bunch of Burman chauvinists like all other Burman groups.

There is no way genuine national reconciliation is going to be happen without the ultimate overthrow of the junta in its current or future incarnations since it is the embodiment of Burman militarism and chauvinism. Above all there is no way the nationalities can do it on their own without involving the majority Burmans both above and underground in an broad and effective united front. Neither side is blameless for the continuation of the conflict, although you have to lay the lion’s share of the blame squarely at the door of the military dictatorship, even if colonialists in their past and present incarnations too did and continue to have a hand in kindling and stoking the fires of communal strife. So “great white saviours” beware as you stand out like a sore thumb, not least compounded by the religious divide.

Civil war, renewed and reinvigorated, is by no means a foregone conclusion once the junta is out of the picture. There just is no political will on the part of the junta though everyone else is willing to find a political solution. The more durable the junta proves to be the more arduous the task. Refugee camps along the border have seen new generations grow up with bitterness and resentment just as in Palestine. Separatist goals are likely to regain currency. There’s a real risk of hard learned and costly lessons from the protracted civil war of six decades and lost generations now being lost to the young, only to repeat the same historical mistakes of fragmentation and disunity in the fight against the common enemy, the military dictatorship. This great nation deserves a real break long overdue. It’s a crime to allow the conflict to smoulder on and keep the country down in this interminable hell of repression and underdevelopment.

Grasshopper, you have a good liberal and legal mind. The sans frontiere idea however is a nice liberal pipe dream just like the world government they were going on about so much 30 years ago. There may be a pretty good viable EU now but it mainly works in favour of international capital, bankers and ruling elites. And it plays into the hands of those who wish to impose their own model of society on the rest of us. Remember TINA that Mrs Thatcher was so fond of?

There are so many articles on this site about this, I wouldn’t worry. As for my pub like reaction, yes whenever I see the prophecies of Huntington looming in front of me I forget being in lotus position on the top of a sepulchral cliff and instead try to control the lightening… *fades out into deft, deep cymbal chimes* Welcome to New Mandala though, it’s floorboards may only be two years old but there has been enough spilt on them to make it seem much older…

This is constructive criticism because you have some very good points, but the tone of your posts detracts from them. We are not your enemy. If you think my post contained a simplistic statement, OK. But don’t go off on a tangent. It helps no one.

If we were in a bar drinking and discussing politics, your ranting (and I would be ranting also) would be perfectly acceptable. But in a discussion group, I believe it is best to be polite and also to show a bit of humility.

Now, I want to thank you for your last pretty much unemotional and informative post. I agree with you that when (hopefully) the SPDC government collapses that the citizens should get the chance to bring the tyrants to justice. Only then can justice be served.

You seem to imply that Than Shwe will not be able to flee to another country and live a life of luxury in safety.

A couple of hours ago I would have disagreed with you. After reading your post and ruminating for a bit, I now agree.

The international community has read about the injustices of the SPDC for so many years that no country would accept him or his cronies and allow them to live in exile.

Emotionally, I hope the people of Burma lynch the SOB, but intellectually I know that law must prevail.

Please read the last four paragraphs of my post before yours. It is off this subject, but I would like to hear your views concerning long term civil wars between the ethnic minorities.

I’m a new guy here. Maybe it is more appropriate to find an article on this site dealing with this situation. If you can point me to one, I’d appreciate it. Then I will post there and you and Ms. Moe Aung can, if you wish, give me your opinions.

Please stay calm. You remind me of me when I was young.

Also, if Than Shwe has watched what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Pol Pot and is determined for something similar not to happen to him, doesn’t he admit his own guilt? Living in such a hell would far outweigh the comfort of any luxuries he may be able to afford.

I believe that a capitalist economy coupled with a Communist government will pose a real threat to the region and world. I don’t necessarily mean a military threat.

As to regional domination not equating with friendly regimes that would depend on what one means by “friendly”.

Look at the history of my country, the USA. We set up friendly regimes in South America and SEA. The USA put their choices in power and the elite and powerful Americans derived massive benefits.

By the way, I’m a Capitalist but I do disagree with one country controlling other countries for economic reasons — or any other reason for that matter. I’m also a patriot, which is why I despise Bush and the present actions of my government.

I do hope that Than Shwe and the rest of the SPDC thugs get deposed and tried for their crimes.

Unfortunately, sometimes that does not happen. Meo died peacefully in his bed. Idi Amin and the President Marcos didn’t do too bad either, or the Shaw of Iran. Money always seems to talk.

I don’t post much, because I don’t have the time. Let me completely stray from the subject of this article, which it seems I continue to do.

You are probably from Burma. I live near your border and come in contact with many ethnic minority organizations. The Pa-O, Shan, Arakan, Karenni, Karen are the main ones.

I used to think that when the SPDC was deposed there would be a federation of states with Aung San Suu Ki as president. All would be peaceful after a brief interim of spats over land grabs.

A guy in the know who works the border completely disagreed with me. His opinion is that because of the history of these minority groups, there will be civil war for quite a while.

After attending some meetings with the ethnic minority representatives and reading up on their history, I now tend to agree with him.

You seem very well informed and a concerned person.What is your opinion on this issue of civil war? I sincerely hope I have a flawed opinion.

The 73,500,000o who claim CCP membership and two-hundred million others who have partisanship, OK they are as guilty with supporting the Junta as Republicans and other are for supporting the illegal coalition of the willing War with Iraq. If we take the thaicrisis line, the USA is the enemy too, infact all brothers who do not feel accountable to the greater utility of other brothers welfare are guilty and are the enemy. What happened after the Second World War? Would thaicrisis blame all Germans as the enemy? None were ignorant? All were Nazi party members through willful choice? Are the majority of people aware of their ability to exorcise liberal judgment with all aspects of decision making? If not, then how can one hold “China” as guilty, unless one has confused China as the CCP and Germany as the Nazi party and the USA as the neo-conservatives?

thaicrisis and you, NPKVET, have not countered my position that it would be more economically fruitful for the CCP to be engaged with a Myanmar/Burma not in the clutches of the Junta. Sure China benefits. So does the British oil company Premier, the French oil company Total and the US oil company UNOCAL because they pump oil in a fairly unexploited, uncompetitive geopolitical region. Do you use Junta oil? Maybe you do!! It would be more beneficial for everyone if Myanmar/Burma was liberal and open to a free market — why not China? You say NPKVET, why would the CCP want to rock the boat? International politics takes time, ie pulling troops out of Iraq takes time because rocking the boat is exactly what causes a chaotic world — and that’s not fruitful l for anyone, even those of us who are able to eat three meals a day. How long do you think it takes for a law or a policy to become a social normality?

What has an utterly superficial comparison that China under Mao is comparable to Myanmar/Burma under the Junta got to do with China post the economic reforms of 1979? Are you saying that current CCP foreign policy is guided by some sort of long march sentimentality? Wow. Sure the CCP engages in an arrogant and rampant industrialisation policy and it’s not a globally positive thing, but equally bad is declaring that anyone is an ‘enemy’, as such reactionary politics will lead to worse problems.

NPKVET, you say I, and many Thai people, have to agree with ThaiCrisis. Mainland China is now an adversary and in reality a potential enemy. It is precisely because the public can believe in such a simplistic argument, that one should not believe it and actively seek arguments against it — and avoid the consequences of engaging in the false-prophetic world of Samuel Huntington. Moe Aung says it better than me because I have engaged in a ridiculous argument and have consequently become ridiculous.

To be on topic, irrespective of facing trial, Than Shwe will have his comeuppance because the reasons behind his veil of intolerance are so obviously weak – as seen with the recent submission to Ban-Ki Moon. Pol Pot? Look how he died. Loved by all?? What sort of legacy is important to Than Shwe? What dictator ever got away with a clear conscience?

The junta is cleverly playing off and manipulating India and China and of course ASEAN. Trade and arms? Sanctions? No worries. If you won’t Jones will. They are still sitting on substantial gas and mineral resources and a long coastline on the Bay of Bengal. There’s also Russia, and the West is simply missing out.

The CCP did support communist struggles all over the planet not just in the region – an open secret. Regional domination does not quite equate with friendly or fellow communist regimes. Besides the CCP under Mao did not embrace capitalism. Capitalist China of today was always going to be a greater threat not just to the region but the entire planet with its rampant profiteering and resource and market grabbing than Red China ever was despite all the scaremongering and demonising.

Yes, Than Shwe will have his comeuppance one way or another. The Burmese will have their revenge, China notwithstanding.

My two cents. China does benefit from the SPDC being in power. China is the major exporter of goods, services, and “hard rice” (as we used to call it) to Burma. By the way, the second largest exporter of military equipment to Burma is India. And of course, our good friend Israel also does a lucrative arms business with the SPDC. Another fact of interest is that Mossad trained Burma’s military intelligence .

Back to the point. Mainland Chinese now occupy almost half of the Shan state. They are also co owners with the SPDC of businesses and government projects. If the SPDC were suddenly deposed, the new government might change to a new weapons vendor or change to different trading partners. Unlikely, yes. But the CCP’s view is probably, “Why rock the boat?”

It is in the interests of Mainland China to keep the SPDC intact. In fact if you think about it, the SPDC is close to what the CCP was under Meo.

I, and many Thai people, have to agree with ThaiCrisis. Mainland China is now an adversary and in reality a potential enemy. The CCP’s long range plan has always been to dominate all of SEA with proxy governments. Tiawan, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. have long known this to be a fact.

I have an open mind. If you can offer an opinion or facts to my post, please do. But do so in a polite manner.