According to the Swedes, who know a good holiday when they see one, the best “tourist country” in the world is Thailand, for the sixth consecutive year. Australia, notes the report in the Pattaya Daily News, places second in the list of Sweden’s favourite destinations.
But enough about Australia…the sun, the sea, the great wide yonder…
I am more immediately curious about these travel awards and what they mean for Southeast Asia. Anyone hoping to learn more will find details on last year’s “Swedish Grand Travel Awards” available here. The Norwegians have a similar batch of awards which I once referenced in relation to this short piece on tourism in Southeast Asia.
Right now all of the hype I am hearing is that the era of inexpensive airfares is apparently coming to an end and that many Europeans will no longer be able to afford their long-haul vacations. And with other news that there are much heftier fuel surcharges on the way there is a chance that predictions of the death of really cheap air travel are perhaps not that premature.
At the same time there is a report that Australians (and others, of course) are increasingly taking cosmetic surgery holidays to Southeast Asia. Obviously many people are still yet to feel the pinch from any increased costs. And cosmetic surgery is a special case where other costs (like a stint at Bumrungrad) can make even expensive airfares cost-effective (or so I am led to believe).
So, whatever the mixed messages tell us – where does this leave Thailand’s tourism sector? Of all the countries where I have ever lived or visited it is the one that has the most obvious links to the global tourist economy (although, as an aside, the UK must be right up there, too). Does this make it particularly vulnerable? And, it goes without saying, very few of Thailand’s tourists currently come overland.
Could its tourist industry survive any great downturn in the number of arrivals by plane? In the past few years those numbers have stayed very strong. Surely this is not inevitable (look at Burma).
Do New Mandala readers foresee a time when tourism to Thailand slumps into insignificance? When the footpaths of Sukhumvit no longer bustle with the world’s vacationers, and when the mountains of the north don’t vibrate with the roar of their motorbikes or four-wheel drives? Is there a precedent for this in other parts of the world – a once gigantic tourist sector that, simply, withers away? To be replaced by different economic activities? Or none?
Ideas from readers are, as always, very welcome. It would be great to hear your thoughts on what must be one of the more compelling topics for the future of the Thai economy. Or does tourism, really, not matter one jot? Tell us what you really think.
7 responses so far ↓
1 wisekwai // Jun 23, 2008 at 7:46 am
Thailand will always have tourism, as long as the planes keep flying. The tourists will be from different places is all. Instead of North Americans and Europeans, they’ll be from Asia and Africa.
2 Grasshopper (lovechild of John Lennon and the guy from the Beach--the book) // Jun 23, 2008 at 10:25 am
Yes I foresee it! I foresee it like I foresaw meeting no 100% genuine Thai people on Khao Sahn Road and meeting genuine travelers from Generation X on pre-planned Ibiza like ‘adventuring’ experiences!!
Imagine islands with no tourists. Imagine all the people stuck in their own countries unable to escape the hell of their minds by hopping on a plane with their parents money, or their divorcee settlement and flying to Thailand to ‘forget’ everything. Imagine these tourists sorting out their problems over a 4 month car expedition to get to Thailand so that when they do get to Bangkok, Thai people are exposed to subdued, slightly dazed and friendly foreigners with sore knees. Imagine Bangkok as a cleaner city because Bangkokonians take pride in themselves as their economy finds parity with the West. Imagine hawkers needing to sell their products to Thais. Imagine rural people not being used as exhibits (see that $300,000 hotel tour post??), imagine the political development Thailand would undergo not needing to be mindful of what the world thinks? Actually, maybe scrap that last one. Imagine catching an ocean liner to Siam and writing a book in the time it takes. Imagine fewer tourists.. Ahh
3 Grasshopper (lovechild of John Lennon and the guy from the Beach--the book) // Jun 23, 2008 at 10:50 am
Of course, what I wrote there implies I am a ‘tourist’, a tourist with a private beach dream, but what I want to say is that with the increased price of plane tickets — perhaps there would be more ‘travelers’ to Thailand — and not travelers in tourist-agent speak either where it means if you book a ticket with them , even if it’s only for a month – you’re a traveler too. That’s another thing one can imagine with fewer tourists, less flimsy meanings for words because there are fewer marketing campaigns which have to appeal to anyone! Anyway, I’ve made being a traveler sound like a superior state of human, because really I’m still stuck at the mentality of whats-his-name from the Beach. Damn.
4 David Reid // Jun 23, 2008 at 10:55 am
There is sure to be a large drop in the numbers arriving from Europe in the next few years. However, India and China will become larger sources of tourists. They are closer geographically. It is also possible that road and rail links link to China will soon become a reality meaning that tourist arrivals will not be totally dependent on air travel.
5 Grasshopper (lovechild of John Lennon and the guy from the Beach--the book) // Jun 23, 2008 at 11:03 am
… but more to the point, can Thailand become a New Interest Economy? Bangkok has all the right geographic benefits, would there be a depression after the collapse of tourism, or would Thailand fail to take up a knowledge based manufacturing industry like Vietnam is at present?
I think if tourism were to fail — it would be like a 50 year old teacher getting a law degree, changing careers and still hoping to get a top position at a firm. The metaphor being, that tourism is Thailand, so much so that changing the national outlook would take a great deal more than a divine intervention from a podium as to how a sufficient manufacturing economy would thrive which would most probably lead to delusional, half baked attempts ending in cronyism and social turmoil. Also, the competitiveness of other regional actors would drive Thailand down the gurgler too, so I think Thailand may have left it too late to change it’s logical developmental progression – which, in the case of my delusional and romanticized dreams posted above, is not so good for Thais because tourism is an insatiable economic dependence which has fostered it’s own culture.
How would one feel if their culture felt no longer relevant?
6 Sidh S. // Jun 24, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Beautifully and poetically put Grasshopper.
I suspect the ever resourceful Thais will figure a way around it (if an expat-Thai like myself can) – such as establishing a very attractive skilled migration and citizenship program. We’ll have lots of Thai-Swedes, Thai-Germans, Thai-Russians, Thai-Aussies…etc. living and working in towns, large and small, around the country. This may result in another housing bubble with problems of its own. We’ll also have a new demanding and influential voting bloc (apart from those pesky Bangkokians!) – maybe even a Farang-Rak-Thai Party…
On a more serious and immediate note, Peak Oil and USD300/gallon oil won’t just take Thai tourism and tourism culture down, it will take the whole world economy with it… We are talking about a global addiction here and the hangover will be long and deadly… On the other hand, a new hydrogen-era might just take us back where oil left off…
7 pete // Nov 19, 2008 at 11:29 am
here is my story for surgery in thailand for a nose job in 2007
http://www.pigott.id.au/thailand-plastic-surgery-holiday-my-story.html
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