brief remark about “academics” – being academics doesn’t necessary make them an experts, nor more objective than non-academics. in fact, I suspect that “academics” are more remote from the ordinary people due to their scholarly (and therefore social) position. to me “academics” appear to be just a PASSIVE observers, more like a bunch of those who is “sitting on the fence and pretend to be able to score more goals”. in reality though, they have never being able to step forward and try to do something practical, instead of only talking and philosophizing. I mean – who of them has ever tried to run for elections ? for reply I will not accept some silly excuse like “they are neutral” – because they are highly partisan ! so, they only talk, and do nothing practical.

great leaders like Ghandi or Mandela, or Bolivar were not academics.

the only Thai PM whom I really respect was Anand Panyarachun – but he neither was an “academic”, more like a diplomat and partly a businessman.

so, Thai “academics” must play more active role in country’s future. and that should be expressed in actions, not words ! if they are so clever and smart and know better – why then no one of them makes a bold move and embarks on campaign to win the support of Thais and get ELECTED and leads this country towards a betterment ? otherwise their talks do not make them any better than taxi drivers or farmers or housewives, who also do a lot of talking, perhaps even more shrewd than those “academics” only in name and superficial designation ….

I also agree that capital moving about is necessary for an economy but to say that you are not gambling means you are living in a middle class fantasy world. Gambling, pornography and drugs are for sleazy lowlifes- nothing to do with buying shares, reading D.H. Lawrence or taking prozac. Business people had a choice between claiming that gambling was good or that finance is not gambling – they chose the latter.

Speculation is totally different from the gambling and speculation is the main force driving the money around the world and making it available to the entrepreneurs all over the wide world.

And as almost everyone knows, without the free and rapid movement of capital we humans would still be living in the caves with neanderthals, or now extinct together with the neanderthals.

Your system of following the herd works for a while but when an unforseen event or black swan pops up you and the herd lose bigtime, probably with all previous profits going too.

Most of the time I took a position in the market the stupid market moved against me and made me lost so much money that I started believing that the market was deliberately acting against me. What I didn’t know then was that the market could only go either my way or against me, as simple as that.

Without seeing that simple fact, I tried and wasted money and time to find a particular brilliant system to foresee the market. I failed, miserably. Now I am wise and I follow just a simple plan. For whatever reason I take a position in the market, then if the market moves against me I cut the loss and get out. If the market moves in my way I stay on and make good money.

Like a large school of fish or a large herd of wildebeest, even a very complex system works well just by following few simple rules.
1. Stick together.
2. Move in the same direction as next guy does.
3. Do not crash into him.
Even the learned academics from Harvard University have called it swarm behavior or swarm theory, ha ha, not a black swam though!