Robert D. Kaplan is a journalist who loves to take on the over-the-horizon issues that are just starting to be absorbed by popular appetites. He has the connections, and the time, and the energy to chase down important stories. And he has decided that future American involvement in Burma is now one of those stories. Today a New Mandala reader brought his latest piece for The Atlantic Monthly to my attention.
It is based on interviews with four Americans who know mainland Southeast Asia well. They are assembled in this article to provide perspectives on getting around the “strategic myopia” Kaplan identifies in American Burma policy. These Americans–“The Son of the Blue-eyed Shan”, Tha-U-Wa-A-Pa (“The Father of the White Monkey”), Ta Doe Tee (“The Bull that Swims”) and Colonel Timothy Heinemann (the only player for whom Kaplan offers a real name)–have all clearly earned their stripes. Those who know the field and the relevant personalities may see through some of these pseudonyms. There are only so many (or so few) individuals who fit anything like these particular profiles.
For that reason this is an unusual and interesting article.
Kaplan concludes:
In his bunker in the jungle capital of Naypyidaw, Than Shwe sits atop an unsteady and restless cadre of mid-level officers and lower ranks. He may represent the last truly centralized regime in Burma’s postcolonial history. Whether through a peaceful, well-managed transition or through a tumultuous or even anarchic one, the Karens and Shans in the east and the Chins and Arakanese in the west will likely see their power increased in a post-junta Burma. The various natural-gas pipeline agreements will have to be negotiated or renegotiated with the ethnic peoples living in the territories through which the pipelines would pass. The struggle over the Indian Ocean, or at least the eastern part of it, may, alas, come down to who deals more adroitly with the Burmese hill tribes. It is the kind of situation that the American Christian missionaries of yore knew how to handle.
But read the whole thing, and make up your own mind. Previous New Mandala coverage of related issues is available here, here and here…among other places.
16 responses so far ↓
1 Hla Oo // Aug 13, 2008 at 3:29 pm
From the George Bush’s economic sanctions to the Laura Bush’s celebrated visit to Mae Sot, the noises from the United States of America concerning Burma are getting louder and louder and louder as the Burmese generals cleverly play the geopolitical game between China and India.
I just pray that poor Burma will not become another pawn in the US of A’s grand plan to contain China from becoming a superpower, like what US did to Vietnam in the sixties to contain the spread of communism in SE Asia.
Americans used the domino effect theory to justify US actions then. Which theory they’re gonna use it now, Yum Cha theory, ha ha?
2 Awzar Thi // Aug 14, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Ta-doe-hti means “hippopotamus”. Like Ta-u-war A’pa it is not Burmese, but Sgaw Karen. It may not be fair to expect Kaplan to know this, but is The Bull aware that he’s actually The Hippo?
3 aiontay // Aug 14, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I’m wondering if all his pseudonyms are Karen inspired on some level. Isn’t it common for Karens to be known as “The father of so-and-so”? And shouldn’t the Son of the Blue Eyed Shan really be the Son of the Blue Eyed Lahu?
4 Charles F. // Aug 15, 2008 at 9:16 am
I read Kaplan’s article about three times before deciding to reply on NM.
There is no question that if the Karen, Shan and Mon tribes had the equipment, they could tie up the Burmese government and probably hasten its collapse.
There’s also no question that the West has been slow to react to events in Burma, and to try and shape the end game. They could do quite a bit more, and still not show their hand, from weapons, to medicines, to food.
From time to time, mercenaries show up to assist the Karens. Most of them are delusional, with ideas of fame and fortune. They scurry off to the jungle, take a few photos of themselves surrounded by KNLA soldiers, then scamper back to Mae Sot, to tell bullshit war stories to gullible reporters and tourists.
Occasionally, just occasionally, someone like Dave Everett shows up, and delivers the real goods. These guys gave great assistance to the tribes. They were able to transition many of the guerrilla units from disorganized rabble into first rate fighters, able to take it to the SPDC. Only short sightedness on the part of the Thai government and KNU leadership caused its failure.
I have no aversion to mercenaries assisting the KNLA, the Shan or the Mon. But there has to be some way to vet these people, weed out the wannabees and bullshit artists who are just looking to make a name for themselves. And there’s no shortage of these people.
There is some quality talent out there; the west just needs some mechanism for recruiting and controlling them.
One of the individuals mentioned in the article had served time in prison for drug smuggling. That, in and of itself, would not make me keep him at arms length, but it would the U.S. government. They tend to hire saints to do this type of work, where they should be seeking out killers.
This is why the government fails in secret paramilitary adventures – they hire a priest instead of a pirate.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that with the influx of less than 20 million dollars in weaponry and no more than 100 freelance advisers, the SPDC would collapse.
At that point, the U.S., England, France and other democratic governments could position themselves to bring about positive change in Burma.
Building clinics along the Thai/Burma border, or feeding the tens of thousands of refugees is a good thing. But it is not going to change the situation inside Burma. Some of the donated money needs to be spent on arms, munitions and advisers.
I fully realize that the usual suspects are going to come out of the wood work and attack me for this post; my advocacy of arming the tribes. But their preferred method, negotiating with the SPDC, is not working. It’s time for a fresh approach, backed by the western powers.
5 Hla Oo // Aug 15, 2008 at 11:48 am
U Nu, the former prime minister of Burma and the most popular politician among the Burmese populace, tried in the seventies to topple the military government in Rangoon by staging a Thailand-based armed rebellion with more than 20 million dollars in his pocket and the full backing of United States. (No body knows how many advisers he’d got then, definitely more than 100.)
At that time the only 150,000 strong Burmese army under Dictator Ne Win was more than bankrupt and also facing the massive invasion of Chinese Red-guard divisions on the long Eastern Front by the Salween River.
Burmese territories East of the Salween river was lost to the Communists and the Burmese army even moved all the weapon factories and heavy industries to the West bank of Irrawaddy River, the last defense line against Chinese hordes. (Invading Chinese easily destroyed Pagan in 1287 just because the city was on the East bank of Irrawaddy.)
But the army successfully used Burmese Nationalism against foreign-backed U Nu Exile rebels. Expecting U Nu would target his former political stronghold in the delta, the army trained and armed every able men in the Burmese villages near the shoreline in delta, and pumped them up with a strong dose of patriotism.
As expected, U Nu sent many boat loads of well armed rebel forces onto the shoreline, but all ended up being killed or captured by the People Militia, called Pyi-thu-sit in Burmese, from the nearby villages once they landed.
The funny thing was the mercenaries equipped with modern M16s and M79s didn’t even get a chance to use their weapons against the villagers armed only with old lee-enfield .303 rifles. Then was the end of U Nu’s rebellion after he lost almost all his army of willing mercenaries.
Now the Burmese army has almost half a million men, access to the endless supply of arms from China, more than a billion dollars every year from selling gas to Thailand, and no other enemy to face except a tired and exhausted and seriously fractured bunch of ethnic rebels on the border with Thailand, which is now more than willing to cooperate with the Burmese generals for her own economic benefits, unlike U Nu’s rebellious times.
I honestly think that the time to use an armed rebellion to solve the Burmese problem was well expired. UNLESS, that is big unless, the gun-ho Americans are still willing to use their armed-forces like they did to Iraq. Then the another big bully,China, wouldn’t sit on the side line and the result would be bigger than the Korean War, or Ben Hur as someone said it in his post here.
Close to one million strong South Western Army of PLA has been waiting on the border and nuclear-armed and ready for that scenario since 1988, when the US Seventh Fleet entered the Bay of Bangal.
It is horribly scary and it could happen soon if George Bush listens to all the ex-special forces Americans and Aussies and Finish and … etc, etc’s writing on this New Mandala!
6 Charles F. // Aug 15, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Hla Oo , I disagree with you on a few important points.
Since the 70’s, the Burmese people have become even mmore estranged from their government. At this juncture I would think that they’d be more than willing to work with anyone trying to get rid of the SPDC.
If they ever needed a lesson on how uncaring their own government is, all they have to do is look no further than the misery visited upon them by Nargis, then compounded by the SPDC.
150,000 men are much easier to maneuver than 500,000 mutinous and disaffected troops. Additionally, the SPDC lacks the logistics to employ them effectively.
Finally, you can only get so many people onto a battlefield, as the Chinese learned the hard way in Korea. Numbers alone will not win the war.
When U Nu launched his ill fated adventure he had less than two dozen foreign advisers. The hope at that time was that if they – the U.S. – threw some money his way, U Nu might be able to upset the apple cart. The entire matter was ill conceived and poorly planed and executed.
In addition, as is typical in these things, U Nu got the idea in his head that he was a military genius.
The Chinese have no use for the generals of the SPDC, and knowledgeable people I’ve communicated with have stated that it’s their belief that the Chinese would prefer a more stable government. Their interest in Burma is economic. The name of the game with the Chinese is money.
You can forget about nuclear forces. They don’t come into play anymore. The Chinese would no more use nukes in Burma than the U.S. would in Cuba, or the Russians in Georgia. Not going to happen.
I really think you’re over analyzing the situation.
7 David Everett // Aug 16, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Dear Hla Oo,
Do you work for Burmese Military Intelligence? The slant you are taking on this matter would appear to lead many people to this conclusion. You words echo the very same message at the junta generals use in order for them to remain in power, that is foreign stooges are trying to take over Burma. Your subtleties are certainly not missed by this reader.
The US certainly did not back U Nu in his attempts to restore democracy in Burma. The CIA supplied funds in order to block the spread of the Burmese Communist Party (BCP). This was backed by Thailand and Bo Mya and the KNLA/KNU who prevented BCP cadre and units from moving south along the border through Karen held territory. So yes, there certainly was US money involved, but not in the manner you have presented here.
It certainly wasn’t the people’s milita who stopped U Nu moving into the delta region of Burma. The tatmadaw had implemented their 4 cuts strategy long before U Nu a small band of U Nu’s men arrived in the delta and their establishment of forts and lookout posts all along this area had already routed much of the KNLA resistance from this region. So again, you are misrepresenting the facts.
Today, I would dare the military junta to arm the militias and the general population to keep the foreign lacky’s from taking over the country. In so doing they would sow the seeds for their own destruction. Only those affiliated with the military support the generals as it is in their own financial and social upward mobility to do so. The general population in the country are enslaved to do the military’s bidding.
Though the generals purport to be the one uniting force in the country they have surpassed their use by date many years ago. However, it is in their own vested interests to continue along this line of reasoning and deny democracy for the masses. For if they were to hand over power to a civilian government they very well know that they will be charged with crimes against humanity and hauled off to the International Court of Justice in the Hague.
The problem they now face is the fact that their own armed forces are going to turn on them directly. No longer are the troops in the field guaranteed of upward social mobility by being in the armed forces. The troops are starving and thus robbing and stealing food from villagers in order for them to survive. Their families no longer get free education, medical treatment nor housing or food supplements. Only the officers get this. Hence the military is set to implode upon itself in the not to distant future.
The generals are masters at playing one side off against the other in order to stay in power. Because of it’s unique geostrategic position, no country is going to make an armed incursion into Burma. Nobody wan’s Chinese naval bases in the Andaman Sea because they then have the ability to block the Malacca Straits and thus starve the Asian region of oil and trade goods. India dislikes China immensely as China does India and as you said, the US is stretched to breaking point. So the general’s are sitting pretty because of this and continuing their enslavement of the people. They do not want peace with the warring ethnic groups because they will no longer have an excuse to stay in power if all armed conflict ends. They would not be able to justify their huge numbers of military personnel Blind Freedy can see this. 500 000 troops to contain 5000 KNLA troops and no perceivable outside military threats? No Hla Oo, the tatmadaw are basically prison wardens containing the civilian population of Burma. Burma is one big open prison. May the long suffering people of this country one day find peace and democracy.
8 Moe Aung // Aug 16, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Thanks David. You got it just right.
9 Hla Oo // Aug 17, 2008 at 6:05 am
Jesus Christ, almighty! I thought only we Burmese have that paranoid schizophrenia of accusing every other Burmese of working for Burmese Military Intelligence.
Come on mate. Don’t go for a low blow, fair dinkum. Everyone loves peace and democracy!
10 Hla Oo // Aug 17, 2008 at 11:54 am
But violent invasion is not the only way to achieve that peace and democracy we all love. WE the people of Burma have suffered enough. Engagement and talks among all the parties involved is the best and only way forward to solve the complex Burma problem.
11 David Everett // Aug 17, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Whatever!
12 Moe Aung // Aug 17, 2008 at 8:27 pm
If everyone loves peace and democracy, Hla Oo, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
13 Moe Aung // Aug 18, 2008 at 12:09 am
Yes, jaw jaw not war war, until we all go blue in the face and all the cows come home. Carry on the junta, sitting pretty on its throne, ruling by whim and keeping everyone under the boot. Just hunky-dory. Haven’t we done ‘engagement and dialogue’ to death or rather the junta gone through the motions for the umpteenth time?
14 David Everett // Aug 18, 2008 at 9:53 am
Dear Hla Oo,
who is talking invasion? You simply are cementing what I have said in my previous comments. Please lose the aussie slang, doesn’t suit.
15 Hla Oo // Aug 18, 2008 at 11:21 am
Hi Dave,
I used to live in Mayland in Perth twenty years ago. It was a tough suburb then because of a large population of Aboriginals, like Redfern in Sydney. One thing I learned hard way was WA cops were real brute compared to the cops in Sydney. I still have tons of relatives in Perth. They said Mayland is a yuppy suburb now and Morley even has a huge shopping mall now.
No job then and I was on dole full time and hanging around with them black fellas I picked up a few Aussie slangs there. I think I used to hear and read a lot about you in papers and suddenly it hits me last night you were the the most notorious guy in Perth then, If I remember correctly. Or I am confusing you with that brothers framed for the big gold heist?
I read that chapter “The Lost Tunnels” from your book on your site. It was a particularly good one. My father was in BIA with the japs during second world war and they stashed away so many weapons and ammo in the jungle tunnels like you described in that chapter. We still had a couple of rusting lee-enfield 303 gathering dust in the basement of our house in delta.
Is your time in big bad house also in your book too? I’m thinking of buying your book now!
16 David Everett // Aug 18, 2008 at 11:31 am
Hi Hla Oo,
yes that’s me. All my experiences are in the book. If you have a read you will see where I am coming from.
Leave a Comment
Please note: New Mandala encourages vigorous debate. However, for the moment we will only be publishing high-quality comments that make original contributions to discussion. There will, of course, still be space for pithy, humorous, eccentric and cheeky input. Short and sweet will usually trump long and involved. Repetitive ranting, unimaginative point-scoring and idle abuse will not be entertained. Comments which carry a real name are also more likely to be approved. Thank you for your ongoing interest and contributions.