By now, Srithanonchai’s touchingly domestic scenes of the political standoff in Bangkok may be a thing of the past.
The crack down has begun. What bought this about can be debated later. For coverage, as usual, Bangkok Pundit is the best English language source.
So far there has been plenty of rough and tumble, but even the PAD mouthpiece Manager seems to be having difficulty backing up its claim of excessive police violence.
Let’s hope it stays that way.
Feel free to post your updates or comments on these latest developments.
28 responses so far ↓
1 matty // Aug 29, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Lots of people resentment against the Samak government are quickly emerging following the ‘crack down’. Most Thai people already harbor a severe distrust of the corrupt police force and while I admit the riot police handled the anti-government protesters (from TV) with least violence, I was surprised to see my wife jumped angrily cursing the police and Samak when a few incidents showing the police roughing up the protesters were shown.
And the protests are rapidly spreading in the provinces (Phuket, Haadyai) and civil disobedience started by State Railways of Thailand have infected Thai International Airways. Samak’s proxy days are getting shorter.
Proxy Samak Sundaravej is probably going to be booted out of office just like his boss Thaksin Shinawatra, unless Samak finds the good sense to resign now and limit his disgrace.
2 Andrew Walker // Aug 29, 2008 at 9:27 pm
So what then Matty? If Samak resigns what would PAD want next?
3 matty // Aug 29, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I would not pretend to fathom what PAD would want next because the answer, I suspect, depends on what type of leader succeeds PM Samak. But PAD succeeds only (to draw the people on its side )because PAD was able to touch on the resentment, anger and distrust of the Thai people against leaders who are blatantly corrupt, or, assume powers to protect corrupt interests.
The difference between you and me Andrew W. is your willingness to overlook the blatantly corrupt and the patently divisive politics of Thaksin and his proxy Samak, merely because of your constipated faith in the majority vote to emancipate the poor and the marginalized Thai villagers. But I hold the view that these Thai poor and these marginalized Thai villagers are in reality being impoverished, marginalized and used/abused by the very same corrupted democracy without accountability.
Your democracy strictly by the numbers is dangerous Andrew Walker and very oppressing. Any criminal opportunist could easily exploit democracy-strictly-by-the-numbers to turn a Thailand into a Marcos-cursed-Philippines, or, even a Mugabe-hyperinflation-ruined-Zimbabwe. Thaksin almost succeeded . . . His proxy Samak thought he could also try.
4 tum|bler // Aug 29, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Your democracy strictly by the numbers is dangerous Andrew Walker and very oppressing. Any criminal opportunist could easily exploit democracy-strictly-by-the-numbers to turn a Thailand into a Marcos-cursed-Philippines, or, even a Mugabe-hyperinflation-ruined-Zimbabwe. Thaksin almost succeeded . . . His proxy Samak thought he could also try.
…and all this then entitles a group of lunatics to destabilise not only the state mechanisms but also the country’s economy, affecting the lives of the vast majority of people who do not share the PAD’s views in any way and just want to get on with their lives?
5 jonfernquest // Aug 29, 2008 at 11:17 pm
“If Samak resigns what would PAD want next?”
A non-Thaksin proxy? Abhisit would fit the bill.
(right answer?)
PAD will probably not stop until either:
1. Thaksin has been extradited, is in jail, and/or has had his Ample Rich offshore shading dealings untaxed wealth, finally taxed or confiscated outright, or:
2. the apparatus that has been set up for him to return and evade justice, after the constitution has been suitably amended and all the necessary courts and government agencies suitably stacked with loyal functionaries, has been defused and deactivated.
Chamlong Sri Muang isn’t stupid and his background is in the military. At this point he is probably thinking von Clausewitz’s trinity of warfare: 1. probability: street protests as a chaotic affair where you are playing the odds (the fog of war), 2. violence: hasn’t happened yet, sort of reverse war, where you make the other guy throw the first punch, at which point he loses, 3. politics: aggressive street protests as an extension of politics by other means.
Whether it fits into preconceived notions of western electoral politics is besides the point. Many people are fed up with the divide and conquer scheme (Laothomatas “Tale of Two, rural and urban, Democracies”) strategy that Thaksin used to concentrate power in one party, and continues to use, although currently in temporary abeyance…
6 matty // Aug 29, 2008 at 11:45 pm
to tumbler: ‘collateral damage’ to people who do not share any political views in any way and just want to get on with their lives is an inescapable fact of life. If Tumbler you did NOT vote in any election because you just want to get on with your life, you ARE now paying the price for not making any choice. Next time vote, and vote wisely.
7 Mariner // Aug 30, 2008 at 12:28 am
There’s only one person who can save us now……. Bernard Trink!
8 fall // Aug 30, 2008 at 1:08 am
If Samak resigns what would PAD want next?
This is the simplest question that everybody ask and the PAD seem to intentionally left unanswer. Why would not the PAD answer?
Well, my law knowledge is not good enough, but I would hazard a guess that the PAD leaders have a chance now to fight treason charge in court with interpretation. But the minute they officially announce the answer that question, then the intention is clear and their is no fighting chance for treason charge.
9 Historian // Aug 30, 2008 at 2:46 am
I find it very strange with your “as usual, Bangkok Pundit is the best English language source”. Andrew , you could have put it otherwise. This is really embarrassing.
10 Fonzi // Aug 30, 2008 at 4:12 am
Matty-
Your hypocrisy and double standards never cease to amaze me.
What was your beef with Thaksin? He was a crook and law breaker, right?
To justify coups and anarchy and lawlessness to get a crook is intellectually, ethically and morally inconsistent.
You want the courts to enforce the law against Thaksin, but get upset if the police enforce the laws against the PAD?
You mock the poor, rural people for being oppressive while cheerleading the PAD mobs for fascist thuggery and for committing treasonous and illegal acts in their attempted overthrow of the legally installed government that was elected under the new constitution and signed off by HMTK.
The PAD didn’t even try to stand in elections.
Where does their authority derive from? It doesn’t derive from Thai culture, Buddhist morality, democratic politics, or loyalty to the monarchy.
They don’t have one justification for their outrageous actions, just like you don’t have a justification for your intellectually inconsistent arguments.
11 Nick Nostitz // Aug 30, 2008 at 7:34 am
I am too tired to make a long comment here, after having worked day and night at the protest site.
This is not anymore about Samak resigning, who is right and who is wrong. The situation on the ground is that any little spark could incite civil war. What i have seen today is the collapse of democracy, how politics of patronage has won over the law.
Please be aware that if the powers in this country don’t find a solution very soon – this will be the end of the Thailand we know and love.
12 matty // Aug 30, 2008 at 11:51 am
“What was your beef with Thaksin? He was a crook and law breaker, right? To justify coups and anarchy and lawlessness to get a crook is intellectually, ethically and morally inconsistent.” Amazed Fonzi
‘Moral authority to rule’ is an abstract that Thaksin, Samak and Fonzi may have read about but had failed to comprehend. Because Thaksin and his proxy Samak themselves and by their conduct, are believed by these (PAD) people to have violated the substance of the constitution Thaksin/Samak flaunt to justify their ‘moral authority to lead’. Thaksin and Samak could rip and throw the pages of constitutional law at those thousands of angry PAD crowd and their supporters with a plea ‘intellectually, ethically and morally consistency’ is when street anarchy shall prevail.
Had I mocked the Thai poor Fonzi? You must have surely misunderstood what I have written.
13 tum|bler // Aug 30, 2008 at 4:10 pm
matty said: If Tumbler you did NOT vote in any election because you just want to get on with your life, you ARE now paying the price for not making any choice. Next time vote, and vote wisely.
You said it yourself. Now I’d like to ask why the PAD don’t wait until the next election for a change of government?
14 nganadeeleg // Aug 30, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Why does it always have to be winner take all?
Is losing face really so bad?
Why is admitting you might have been wrong seen as a weakness rather than a strength?
The solution to this stalemate is simple for rational people.
In a nutshell, the problem (simplified):
- PAD are concerned that Samak/PPP are crooks who are hell bent on amending the constitution to exonerate themselves & Thaksin, get back the loot and manipulate the institutions in their favor.
(I know it a lot more complicated than that and there are other issues such as a ‘third’ hand etc, but IMO, for the majority of the protesters the problem is as stated above)
- Samak & PPP were elected, and feel a mob has no right to demand they resign.
The solution: Each side take a step back from their ‘winner take all’ strategy.
Samak should explain that resignation is out of the question, however he should also acknowledge the PAD concerns and agree to put the proposed constitutional amendments up for public consultation, followed by parliamentary debate which results in a model constitution that is then to be put to a public referendum.
Once that offer has been made by Samak (not sure of the legalities, but something like a cabinet resolution & media announcements should suffice) then the PAD protesters be given 24 hours to disperse.
(they would retain the right to resume protests if Samak/PPP does not follow through with the promise)
If PAD fail to accept the proposal, then they have no right to complain when police move in to disperse them.
PAD/UDD/academics/media should all then put across their points of view regarding the model constitution.
For PAD, rather than trying to stop the ‘uneducated’ masses from having a vote, they would be better served formulating an education plan that highlights to the masses that the same problems will continue for as long the same sort of politicians continue to be elected.
15 nganadeeleg // Aug 30, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I forgot to add, that if Samak merely waits for this protest to fizzle out (or crushes it) and then proceeds full steam ahead with the exoneration/manipulation strategy outlined above, then for sure the matter will not be really over and the FINAL SHOWDOWN will just be delayed until another time.
All these problems will only be over (for good) once the ruling politicians act reasonably, and it is up to the people to keep choosing new politicians until they find some that do.
Third hands become irrelevant once you have reasonable politicians.
16 Historian // Aug 30, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Samak is not that Bad he is just an average old style politician, yet highly initiative and artistic. The only problem is that Samak is the Frontman of PPP and trying to ignore the reality of what his gangster colleagues are doing. Fonzi , BP and Andrew will link whatever actions against this Gov with anti-Thaksin by promoting their anti monarchy propaganda. See , whenever they got chance , they worked like programmed machines.
Historian
17 amberwaves // Aug 30, 2008 at 6:33 pm
I can’t say I follow Matty’s argument at all.
It seems to boil down to: mob rule is better than vote buying.
The system should follow the will of 30,000 people – all presumably pure of heart with towering integrity and intellect – threatening chaos, and disregard the votes of millions, who can be dismissed as ignorant bumpkins who will do anything for a little beer money.
Civics lesson: Laws are meaningless.
Here’s a hypothetical: suppose several thousand Samak supporters with banners and t-shirts declaring their allegiance decide they would also like to camp out at Government House. Now.
This is perfectly ok, right? And you would condemn any PAD attempt to stop them, right? And the Samak supporters have the right to push their way in if necessary, right? All Thais have equal rights and privileges, right?
No? Why not? — because it is a provocation? Because they are trying to cause trouble? And the PAD occupation is not a provocation? They are not trying to create trouble?
18 karmablues // Aug 30, 2008 at 10:38 pm
nganadeeleg makes some good points. The education plan idea is a good one but not sufficient since voters in general even if somewhat educated cannot be expected to always vote for the public good or even rationally. That is why democracy isn’t all about just having (free and fair) elections. There are also other generally accepted essential components of democracy, namely, protection of human rights, public participation in decision-making processes, and rule of law.
So for example, even to take something which might seem trivial, let’s say country X has a legal requirement that a PM must hold at least a high school diploma. If PM Cheat of country X having won landslide victory in elections was later on found to have faked his highschool diploma, what happens? In a democratic country, you don’t have to wait until the next election cycle for PM Cheat to get voted out and for civil society to try and educate the citizens that cheating is bad. In a properly functioning democratic system, PM Cheat would be immediately subject to the relevant processes and be disqualified and replaced (the prospect of disqualification would probably prompt him to resign anyways).
A more important case would be politicians who break the law or abuse fundamental human rights. In a democratic system, we aren’t supposed to wait for such elected politicians to get voted out in the next elections. The system is supposed to get rid of these politicians via parliamentary (eg. impeachment) or legal proceedings, REGARDLESS of whether voters want them to continue governing the country or not. (but of course, after serving their time in jail, they can run in elections again and people can vote them back if they want to – although it seems quite possible that many countries probably have certain limitations about people with criminal records running for elections, which is understandable)
So, I think for Thailand, we really need to improve the check and balance system. There should be a strong rule of law, and rule by mob is not a desirable alternative. With a stronger rule of law in Thailand, I don’t expect to see any more major instances of attempts to rule by mob.
ie. If elections fail to filter out the corrupt and abusive politicians, then the parliament/independent bodies/courts must get rid of them and thereby people will have no reason to attempt rule by mob.
19 Fonzi // Aug 31, 2008 at 3:58 am
amber-
I like your argument.
Wonder what the intellectuals and media would say if the poor farmers from the North and Isaan decided, hey, we are going to go take over The Manager, The Nation, Chamlong’s leadership school in Kanchanaburi, ThaiPBS, the faculty offices at the universities, the offices of the corporations that are financing these mobs to stand up to the fact they are being disenfranchised by proto-fascists once again.
After all, they would just be exercising their right to protest just like the PAD.
20 nganadeeleg // Aug 31, 2008 at 12:12 pm
I also am of the opinion that if either side is seen to ‘win’ completely, then that will be bad for democracy in Thailand.
There is no need for me to comment on what it would mean if PAD has a complete victory, but would a complete victory by Samak/PPP be the best outcome?
The stakes are so high now, that such a victory would basically say the government only needs to win elections – there is no need to be concerned with minority viewpoints – as long as the majority vote for us we can do what do what we like!
In most western countries we can live with election outcomes because there are functioning checks and balances to overcome the tyranny of the majority, but we all have seen how those checks and balances are continually manipulated in Thailand
(by all sides).
Also in most western democracies, we know the majority of the voters have a reasonable standard of education, and know that if the government acts badly, firstly the checks and balances will keep them under control, and if that fails the people will – at the next election.
(That’s the theory anyway, although lets wait until the next US election result to see if it still works that way, or has western democracy evolved to something else again?)
In Thailand, it has not even reached the ‘in theory’ stage because the level of education of the masses is relatively low, and they are also relatively poor.
Lets leave whose fault that is to another post, but IMO that leaves too much opportunity for slick operators to manipulate the masses.
Whether they are hoodwinked, seduced or co-erced becomes irrelevant, and all that counts is who won the election, and without functioning checks and balances that becomes bad democracy.
So whilst I would hate to see PAD have a complete victory, I think it is in the best interests of Thai democracy that Samak/PPP at least be seen to be acknowlegding and addressing the legitimate concerns of the PAD rank & file, at the same time as they dismiss and ridicule the more outlandish claims of some of the PAD leadership.
21 Bob // Aug 31, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Nice one again, hobby. A victory for law and order would mean a defeat of minority opinions.
Somehow, that is non sequitur. The mob has clearly lost its legitimacy, but future minority opinions that respect the law and don’t play this dangerous game (after all that is what it is) still have the same voice.
P.S. Here is an example of a slick operator: Sondhi L. And here is an example of manipulated masses: PAD crowds. Yep, so let’s disenfranchise all of Isaan and the North and allow only Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, and the South a vote.
22 fall // Aug 31, 2008 at 2:50 pm
What hobby said was an idealistic situation (except for the part about education of the mass), but dirty reality tend to differ.
The reason for Thailand not even reached the ‘in theory’ stage is not because of education, but because there is a “referee”. Like two siblings when they have problems and would look up to daddy for final ruling, instead of solving the problem themselves like a grown man.
For PAD to demand a legitimate government to resign is impossible, however, if for withdrawn the constitution amendmend for say 2 years in exchange for the PAD to stop protest and PAD leaders turn themselves in. That could be a starter deal each can bring to negotiation table.
If the PAD willing to attend the table, that is…
23 nganadeeleg // Aug 31, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Bob: Law and order?
Thats a microscopic way of looking at a much bigger problem, but hey, we are all entitled to an opinion!
btw, since when did addressing legitimate concerns have to mean disenfranchising Isaan and the North?
24 nganadeeleg // Aug 31, 2008 at 5:18 pm
I forgot to mention that I think it’s about time the PAD protesters went home and had a wash and a sleep!
It seems the same old issues have been around for years and will be around for quite some time to come, so I dont see why they need to bring it all to a head this week.
Give Samak a chance to govern – if he has not taken the right lesson from this weeks events then there will be other (more appropriate) times to resume the protests.
25 matty // Aug 31, 2008 at 11:38 pm
NO BACKING DOWN in Thailand
With foreboding shall we all greet tomorrow’s morning because both the PAD and Samak’s government will ‘NOT BACK DOWN’. And heaven forbid the ‘showdown’ because neither side won’t back down! But knowing the intransigence of Chamlong-Sondhi and the pugnacity of Samak, I get sick that the outcome could be worse than my direst fears.
Political lessons learned from revered authors (of names long forgotten) dictate a reasoned conclusion that Samak Sundaravej will be within his constitutional authority and duty to protect the Office of the Thai Prime Minister (and related government ministries) by all means, including force, if necessary. The PAD had gravely overreached , the PAD and their leaders had deliberately broken the nation’s laws and had defied the Thai constitution with their current protests.
But tomorrow or the next when blood starts being spilled on the streets, and, the protesters are gassed and violently struck with police truncheons TO ENFORCE THE LAW I will be feeling an angry despair that the lawless protesters had failed, and, the victorious Samak Sundaravej will continue to sit, rightfully, as Prime Minister of Thailand.
26 nganadeeleg // Sep 2, 2008 at 9:14 am
Would be interested to hear from Nick Nostitz now that the UDD/DAAD mob have entered the fray.
It seems to me that where they go, violence seems to follow.
To me it does not seem like the PAD has the same propensity to violence as does the UDD/DAAD.
Is the difference due to the respective leaders of each group (doubtful in Sondhi’s case), or due to the type of supporter each group attracts?
27 Nick Nostitz // Sep 2, 2008 at 10:27 pm
“nganadeeleg”:
I am extremely busy the last week, so please excuse me if i have not read any of the debate other than my name coming up in your comment.
Propensity of violence – the situation is insane, both sides have murder in their eyes.
Yet – yesterday it was only PAD who fired shots, not UDD.
3 UDD guys got killed, and several also injured by gunfire. Shell casings were found at a place that was held by the PAD during the clashes, that was on the opposite side of the road, where i ducked. I believe that i have seen PAD fighters firing guns, but i am not 100% sure.
Later, when PAD sent probing parties into the small side sois, shots were fired as well at UDD fighters from those sois.
Nirmal Gosh also heard bullets whizzing past him, clearly from the PAD camp.
Nobody knows what is going to happen tonight. If there is a new round of fighting, things might easily escalate. The only hope i am having now is that somehow both sides can be persuaded to back down, and not just one side. That also means that without a PAD withdrawal from Government House, there will be no chance for peace.
28 nganadeeleg // Sep 2, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Thanks Nick. It sounds like a real mess – please keep your head low & be safe.
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