Over at The Interpreter, the must-read blog of the Lowy Institute, veteran Southeast Asia-watcher Milton Osborne makes some very interesting points about yesterday’s resignation of Thai Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag. Based on a lifetime spent observing politics across the region, Osborne’s analysis is, to my eye, worth a very close look.
He concludes that Tej’s “departure has all the elements of a signal that the king wants a rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand”.
But taking the headline question about the king, I wonder if it is, in fact, worth asking something much more specific. What is it that the king may have had enough of? Enough of the “uncertainty”? Enough of the street-protest using his brand to bring down the elected government? Enough of the critical attention that the current showdown brings to his kingdom? Enough of the Samak government? Enough of parliamentary democracy?
That’s enough from me.
What do New Mandala readers think?
22 responses so far ↓
1 Srithanonchai // Sep 4, 2008 at 6:35 pm
“He concludes that Tej’s ‘departure has all the elements of a signal that the king wants a rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand.’” >> We did not need this “signal” to guess what was on the king’s (and on many other peoples’) mind, really.
2 nganadeeleg // Sep 4, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I have just posted a blog about what I think the Referndum questions should be if the government really wants a solution to the current crisis, instead of just a rubber stamp to continue the manipulation agenda:
http://www.nganadeeleg.blogspot.com/
Perhaps the following additional question could be thrown in for good measure:
Should the King appoint an interim government? Y or N
and what about this one, to put an end to all the snide nonsense:
Should Thailand be:
(A): A constitutional monarchy?
or
(B): A republic ?
3 BangkokDan // Sep 4, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Tej Bunnag was forced to take the job, he didn’t want it.
It’s only fair to let him off the hook again.
I would’t read too much else into it.
4 amberwaves // Sep 4, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Mr. Osborne’s observations are more than welcome, but he makes reference to a piece of “conventional wisdom” that I’ve never really seen explained:
“… the army is showing little inclination to enforce the state of emergency the prime minister has sought to impose…”
Perhaps I am being naive, but what evidence is there that Samak and Anupong are not on the same page, as this implies and others have said explicitly?
A very close parsing of their respective comments?
Or perhaps it is somehow predicated on the idea that a state of emergency automatically means all its provisions are to be enforced immediately and by all available means?
I’m all ears…
5 Colum Graham // Sep 4, 2008 at 9:17 pm
amberwaves, who has more power in Thailand, the military or the PPP government? I think the assertions are more from experience of previous situations where the military has shown itself to be inextricably tied to the monarchy… as the monarchy is the state. Does this mean the monarchy is in an emergency situation? I don’t think so. Emergency? Those people who wield un-democratic power in Thailand are not under threat. Maybe Samak and Anupong are on the same page, but which one turned their page to suit the other?
Osbourne writes “But he has now resigned ‘for personal reasons’ associated with his wife’s health and it is impossible to believe that he would have done so without the approval of the palace.” – OK – so it’s impossible to believe he would have done so without the approval of the palace, but what’s to say he wouldn’t have resigned with approval of the palace under normal circumstances?
I don’t think anything objective can be interpreted by us from situations that are not entirely open to public scrutiny. Of course it would be great if we could have more accurate predictions about the conclusion of the present stand off, but we can’t – and feeding off scraps (or non-scraps), like Tej Bunnag’s resignation, as indications of potential democratic health only prolongs a tedious wait.
Power in Thailand will remain elusive and mysterious while the public is unable to access it. I think a valid indicator of democratic progression, or at the very least – an indication of the Bhumibol’s democratic values would therefore be for him to be more accessible. Until he is more accessible, I think it’s reasonable to assume that a failing democracy is in the interests of Bhumibol because it is a great marketing strategy for his “benevolent” reign – and subsequently, perhaps “Has Bhumibol been feeding off of the present crisis?” is a more fitting question.
6 saay // Sep 4, 2008 at 11:44 pm
amberwaves, the BP writes:
“One key leader from a coalition party has even suggested that the way Gen Anupong is refusing to exercise his power under the emergency decree to send in the troops against PAD demonstrators is a kind of silent putsch.”
http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_News/04Sep2008_news08.php
7 The Ghost // Sep 4, 2008 at 11:58 pm
I think…..
I think if you keep writing about H.M. The King and excerpting The Book That Shall Not Be Named you’re gonna get New Mandala blocked and blacklisted in Thailand and lose a big local audience.
8 ThaiCrisis // Sep 5, 2008 at 1:47 am
Enough ? Apparently not.
Samak was granted an audience last week. And he came back… quite confident.
My point : if the King had really enough… Samak would be out. Already.
Or… we can assume the opposite… the King had enough of the PAD. In this case…
Anyway, enough speculating.
9 ratisee rumruay // Sep 5, 2008 at 12:13 pm
We are coming back to the same old topic: that the Thai people have the mentality of a child and need to be guided by the divine hand, always.
10 Above^ // Sep 5, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Prove otherwise then! You won’t do it by mindlessly and slavishly following any of the major protagonists in this conflict. But that is precisely what is happening. A good solid slightly left-leaning party built from the roots up wouldn’t be a bad start. But it never works like that, does it? Indeed, most of the Octoberists have sold their souls to the Thaksin Devil for the sake of a comfortable retirement. And those people who do have some credibility left are treated like social pariahs.
11 David Brown // Sep 5, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Colum Graham says “experience of previous situations where the military has shown itself to be inextricably tied to the monarchy… as the monarchy is the state.”
this seems a bit mysterious to me…
as far as I know the King has never said what he thinks except in things related to sustainable development, water management, etc … never to my knowledge any statements on the elements of government or its relationship to society, except in very general terms… like do your job diligently and all will be well, etc
all sorts of people and institutions claim to be operating with or for the monarchy… eg. military governments routinely claim to be supporting the monarchy, as do the PAD, etc, etc
the monarchy, specifically the king, princess and to lesser extents other members, are revered by the ordinary Thai people and would be protected by all those people if they got the chance
I think the Bangkok elite, rich and influential figures, etc use the idea of the monarchy when it suits them for their own purposes
a side thought just strikes me… the once highly regarded saviour of students for democracy, Chamlong Srimuang, is now the military strategist for the PAD. He is associated (how?) with the non-mainstream Santi Asoke Buddhist sect and he has surrounded himself with monks form the sect at the PAD protest. The Santi Asoke followers are cooking vegetarian food for the protesters and presumably the monks are there to give an outlet for those Thais that wish to give to monks (offering food in the mornngs) and also as a bodyguard for Chamlong and the other leaders. they know that the police and military would never force themselves through a barrier of monks. If you look closely at footage you can see the monks, strange that the media (english) has not mentioned them….
so some Thais will even use Buddhism for their own ends……
12 BkkOptimist // Sep 5, 2008 at 3:21 pm
wasn’t exactly a super insightful article. the resignation came because Thailand is no longer on the brink war with Cambodia, but is now rather on the brink of civil war.
13 หมดอาลัย ... // Sep 5, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Wouldn’t it be nice if the King thought, “I want to take the 2 mai ow position but my wife won’t let me”?
14 jonfernquest // Sep 5, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Osborne: “… the army is showing little inclination to enforce the state of emergency the prime minister has sought to impose”
amberwaves: “what evidence is there that Samak and Anupong are not on the same page”
IMHO Amberwaves is right and Osborne is not.
Samak and the military have been working together in many ways, enforcement of lese majeste, no violence against PAD for the military, no coup for Samak. Samak now occupies the Supreme Commander’s office after his office was taken over by PAD.
Osborne: “Tej’s departure has all the elements of a signal that the king wants a rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand”.
Doesn’t everyone want a “rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand” ?
Remember Anand’s comments on royal intervention: “His Majesty has been through 16 constitutions, 18 coups d’etat and 24 prime ministers. He has an acute grasp of constitutional rule, yet he remains detached from politics, playing a non-partisan role in the country’s political process and development.” (Bangkok Post Article August 24, 2007, SPEECH BY ANAND PANYARACHUN, The monarchy: an indispensable institution)
Is a non-partisan role really possible now? Whatever intervention the king makes, one party will lose. Where is Suchinda nowadays?
15 David Brown // Sep 5, 2008 at 10:29 pm
re the whole question of handling the PAD, I just sent the following to the Bangkok Post:
When commenting about the very light hand adopted by the police and military why has the Post not mentioned that there are Santi Asoke monks amongst the protesters?
Even if the police and military might want to disperse the PAD and
arrest its leaders they are seriously constrained because the PAD is
cunning and immoral enough to put children, women, old people and monks in harms way.
Some people have suggested that the police and military should seal the compound, restricting entry of any people or supplies, switch off the power and water and allow the PAD protesters to disperse.
However, I am sure this has been thought through and it is recognised that the PAD would ensure there are medical and other emergencies that they can blame on the “violent” confrontation’
Instead of naively and innocently highlighting the ineptitude of the government, police and military the Post should help readers to understand the broader picture of this confrontation.
We should all have sympathy for the police and military in the front
line and their commanders and the government in discovering a humane solution to the illegal and inconvenient occupation of the government compound.
Unfortunately the only real solution is for the authorities to hold the line calmly and quietly while everyone, especially the PAD protesters, have time to think through and recognise what they are doing and show their good sense by gradually dispersing.
While waiting for good sense to prevail, the justice system can handle some of the backlog of cases including considering the cases against leaders, who may be convicted in absentia, and the government can keep on doing its job of developing the country.
16 ratisee rumruay // Sep 6, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Dear David Brown: those monks at the PAD rally are just fake monks not recognized by the Thai Buddhist Organization. So please leave Buddhism out of it. What has happened at that rally is not Buddhist at all, e.g., the use of foul language is definitely forbidden in Buddhism.
17 Land of Snarls // Sep 6, 2008 at 5:18 pm
หมดอาลัย … #13, see my post #3 on:
http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2008/01/28/the-electorate-and-the-acute-state-of-thai-politics/
18 David Brown // Sep 6, 2008 at 7:36 pm
ratisee… thank you for your comment
I understood that Santi Asoke is a breakaway sect. I presume they have followers who respect them and you have confirmed that they are not respected by other Thai Buddhists.
The question here is whether the police and military would feel in danger of being hated if they had to manhandle one of these people who do wear a robe that looks Buddhist.
Do you think most Thais would accept if there was video broadcast of such an action… how much would Sondhi be able to beat this up as an issue, especially around the world where the distinction between sects would not be understood….
btw… I agree that the monks and of course the leaders of the PAD are all behaving badly… for example, I saw a monk walking along the road shouting at other PAD protesters and the lies and innuendo of the group are obscene.
An aside, do you think the Santi Asoke are gaining many supporters from amongst the paid for protesters?
More importantly I am curious about the middle class and rich that are apparently supporting (paying) and attending the protests. Do you agree these would be even more gullible and foolish and maybe prime targets for Chamlong and Santi Asoke?
19 Land of Snarls // Sep 7, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Spooky paranormal Samak quote :
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/read.php?newsid=30082782
Breakingnews
Hail falling at Government House not normal: Samak
Published on September 7, 2008
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said Sunday that he has never seen hail falling at Government House once in his life until Friday.
He said his disagreed with the Meteorological Department which said the hail fall was a normal phenomenon.
“It’s definitely not normal. I’ve never seen anything like this in my 73 years of living,” Samak said.
The Nation
——————————————————————————–
Privacy Policy © 2006 Nation Multimedia Group
September 7, 2008 01:21 pm (Thai local time)
http://www.nationmultimedia.com
20 Colum Graham // Sep 7, 2008 at 9:36 pm
David Brown, I’ve not argued that the King has said anything, my opinion is that the military would support the King before an elected official. For Thailand to be a ‘constitutional monarchy’, the constitution needs to come before the monarchy. People in Thailand are instead subject to a monarchial constitution, where everyone tries to guess and then use the King’s constitution, against anyone who opposes them. Keeping his beliefs quiet, only allows for this “we act in the name of the King” ridiculousness going. Samak has now started using the King as a political tool. It has the same practicality as spiritual interpretation.
21 Jim Taylor // Sep 8, 2008 at 11:58 am
I dont know if Milton Osborne claims to be a Thai specialist but Tej’s departure cannot be connected to the apsirations of otherwise of the king. Tej was feeling the pressure from both sides, government and a division between Prem’s cohorts and the ex-coup boss Sondhi Bung & his PAD aligned interests. Both sides of the anti-government platform want Anupong to take sides and set the stage for a coup but, so far, he is having nothing of this.
22 Do Lover // Sep 8, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Goodness me, to see Anand Panyachun, the great propagandist for the palace, quoted as fact is amazing, especially following the 2006 coup. Impartial? Detached from politics? Non-partisan? No significant analysis supports this view (as has been shown at NM numerous times).
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