New Mandala

6 responses so far ↓

• 1 Srithanonchai // Oct 13, 2008 at 5:15 pm

  “Perhaps the saddest sight in all this is the Democrat Party. …. They are being dragged along at the back, shedding principles and scruples behind them like a litter of plastic bottles.”

  Very true. Even worse is that leading Democrats might not merely be electoral opportinists, as Chang Noi suggests, but truly believe that the PAD has basically been doing the right thing, and thus need to be supported by the Democrats.

• 2 Ed Norton // Oct 13, 2008 at 8:56 pm

  While I agree with the sentiment expressed by Chang Noi, I have a feeling that Sondhi Lim has presented a better picture of what this is about. What follows are some thoughts.

  Importantly, these events are most decidedly not still about Thaksin. Thaksin is a symbol of what PAD’s fight is about but not the reason for the continuing struggle. Sondhi calls it a civil war or wants a civil war and this is much closer to the core of what PAD are about.

  This is a clash of interests that has been fought at various levels for some time. PAD want to end a system of government that threatens the interests of the people and class fractions that they claim to represent. Some readers may remember one of the earlier claims of Sondhi regarding the nature of the interests involved: that the middle class was being taxed to fund the TRT programs for the poor. When those poor elect the populist capitalists (and they don’t pay taxes – see Thaksin and Shin sale), then the middle class revolt.

  Obviously PAD has big business support as well from royalists and others, but this is because a change of political and economic system in the direction PAD proposes/wants suits them.

  There is also the racial-class element involved in identifying us and them – for PAD, “us” is essentially Thai-Chinese (PAD: luk chin rak chat) and “them” is the “black Thai” of the north and the northeast who have always been considered “lazy” (after all, as the Bangkok middle class refrain goes, if they weren’t lazy, they wouldn’t be poor).

  The dispute is essentially the big one: who will control wealth and power. This is why it is now a fight to the death. Everything is at stake now.

  I think the Chang Noi headline makes this all too fuzzy.

• 3 suthi mayteekoon // Oct 14, 2008 at 1:09 pm

  Even an Oxford alumnus has turned out to be devoid of the Oxonian spirit when he is involved in Thai politics. All the things that are happening now merely prove that we Thais put self above service and that what we keep harping about loyalty to king and country is but lip service.

• 4 Sidh S. // Oct 14, 2008 at 6:58 pm

  Yes, many sides are responsible for the October 7th tragedy as accused by Chang Noi. And, yes, “Thai democracy is in a state of (SELF) immolation” according to Michael Connor and he has outlined interesting plausible scenarios – but as he said, reality often takes on a life of its own… The latest episode provides an excellent example.

  As the smoke settles on this latest series of Thai crisis, Chavalit and Chamlong seem to emerge as the critical catalysts/provocateurs. Whatever actually transpired in their meeting between “brothers” to “peacefully resolve” the conflict, led directly to events on the 7th.

  The interesting question for me: was it about the peace or actually the derailing of peace? The ’surrender’ and arrest of Chamlong seemed to be a tactic to re-activate the base (to borrow Sarah Palin’s effect on right-wing Republicans) responding to PMSomchai’s soft, concilliatory approach (he had called tycoon Sonthi earlier and had an amicable meeting with PMPrem), while PMChavalit’s involvement in the planning of the police offensive and later his call for a coup (to derail PMThaksin’s 21st October court verdict???) seem to point to the latter direction…

  On the other hand, it may be a strictly legal path to peaceful resolution – with the eventual surrender of PAD’s leadership to lesser crimes as strong evidence and the set up of the new constitution drafting committee endorsed by all sides…

  If the latter was the case (which I personally believe it is) what went wrong???

  “Reality” – KYPornthip’s investigation points to Chinese-made gas-bombs containing excessive explosives (and Nick Nostitz got to experience its destructive capacity firsthand – ah, globalization’s cruel realities… Chinese melamine-tainted milk and explosives-tainted gas bombs; US-tainted subprimes – and maybe more hawkish McCain-Palin presidency???). To compound the matter, YouTube reveals that the Thai police didn’t know how to shoot it – they shot straight, horizontal at the crowds. From Nick Nostitz’ report, the police seemed as shocked of the devastative effects…

  The Nation mentioned that the Chinese-made gas bombs were bought in 1993 – post Black May (interestingly post Tiananmen as well) – which reflects the general good intent of the security forces. However, going on a detour here, one wonders why the Thai police would procure crowd control equipments from the Chinese not known for peaceful crowd control (no one knows their latest performance at Tibet pre-Olympics)…

  Anyway, that’s not the main point. My current analysis points to very poor equipments and poor training of the police/military in crowd control (and the military’s hesitancy to ‘deal’ with PAD under PMSamak’s orders is not surprising in this light – and the recent history with Takbai). Had they been given the best equipment and training and they were minimal casualties, I suspect things will be significantly different.

  Frankly, I don’t know what will happen from here. The “Reds” are mobilizing at Muang Thong and Sanam Luang. HM the Queen now openly supports PAD. PMSomchai came back from an audience with HMK disoriented… Maybe a house disolution to buy time? (but the coalition has not filled their election war chest yet)

  I support the amendment of the 2007 Constitution through a broad participatory and transparent process as the way out of this (and I commend PMSomchai here, a powerless figure with a domineering wife and the Master Puppet brother-in-law)… I emphathize with many desparate PADites, urban middle-classes that seek a less democratic 70:30 or 50:50 solution – but I don’t support punishing the poor by diluting their voting rights for something they are not guilty off. I am also glad the GenAnupong is keeping calm and not staging a coup (but exerting pressure in other ways)…

  I hope they are other ways to strengthen the rule of law, checks-and-balances, accountability, civic participation involvement etc. in Thai democracy. Maybe heavier penalties for electoral cheats and for abusing power? Life-time ban from politics? Hefty fines, asset-seizures???

  Meanwhile, history repeats itself. When there are civil strive in Thailand, Cambodia (PMHun Sen) opportunistically attacks!

• 5 HC lau // Oct 15, 2008 at 2:14 pm

  Readers and writers who keep harping on the issues of the PAD and its leadership trying to get corrruption out of Thai politics are severely blinkered and has chosen to ignor history and background of the PAD and democratic party leadership. They should do themselves some intellectual justice and research the background of these people before heaping corruption charges on Thaksin and company and talking about the PAD and democratic party bosses as if they are saints.

  It doesn;t take a genius to figure out the fact that the Thai military and police are corrupt to the hilt as they are very blatant about it. Given that, please take a look at the names of the leadership of PAD – mostly starting with some military designation (Gen / maj / Col etc). Have these people been ‘born again” buddhist and now become guardian of purity – I think not.

  have you also notice the photos published by the pro-Pad press. ome shows military men in full battle fatique sitting amonst the PAD “guards” take a close look – from their carrying, these are “officer class” military. (if you have seen what the regulars look like in thailand you will have no problems spotting an officer)

  Given all that, it becomes obvious that the whole PAD charade is being ochestrated by the current and former military elite to wrestle back ‘administrative control” from the elected govt. The democratic party and its predessors have been appointed govt by the military time and again, but cannot win elections. The reason is not ‘vote buying” by the other side, but the arrogance and distained that the party (PAD etc) view and treat the electorate.

  Yes, there is corruption on both sides but TRT did what the democratic party elite refused to do for decades – bring development to ALL of Thailand, not just to the urban elite.

  (I am a regular visitor to Thailand, speaks Thai and have relatives in both bangkok and the southern provinces)

• 6 Sidh S. // Oct 16, 2008 at 3:59 pm

  HC Lau, no one is a saint here – I think that we all agree on. For me, the judiciary in complicitly ‘releasing’ PMThaksin, the Dark Lord, to attend the Beijing Olympics opening is telling in itself. If you corner PMThaksin in Thailand by convicting and jailing him (with clear, technical evidences), there’s a big chance that he’ll bite back with a vengeance and take a large chunk of the Thai elite that he has had shady business/political dealings with down with him and his family.

  By allowing PMThaksin to escape and protest his innocence in England or the Bahamas, many others in business, politics, military, bureaucracy can breathe easy in Thailand and also maintain their ‘innocence’.

  At this point and atmosphere, it is almost impossible that PMThaksin will ever come back. For PMThaksin, it is now the matter of ‘negotiating’, directly and through nominees in parliament and on the streets, his assets back (whether rightly or wrongly gained, this may or may not be proven in courts). This is where the current elite must thread with great care. If they cave in for the sake of ‘peace’, they’ll be empowering PMThaksin and there are many precedents when PMThaksin says he’ll quit politics for good, he means the exact opposite…

  And I agree with Chang Noi’s analysis, PAD’s diverse membership is only united as long as they sniff Thaksin’s hands in any political dealings. Since the military coup in 2006, his has not been about forwarding Thai democracy, but about merely containing Thaksin and his cronies/nominees. PAD are willing to ‘pause’ democracy until PMThaksin really retires.

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