The coming month looks like it will be a testing time for Thailand. The spectacular funeral rites for the king’s sister, Princess Galyani, have merely paused the battle between Thaksin Shinawatra and the forces configured around the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD). At the same time, the divorce of Thaksin and his wife of 28 years has many tongues wagging. It’s now looking very likely that this is the beginning of a more openly combative, “gloves off” phase in Thaksin’s war against his enemies.
Such a battle has the potential to get out of hand. Violence on a scale that has not been seen in Bangkok in recent times would make for a very sad end to the year. The leadership of the People’s Alliance for Democracy has pursued a strategy of provocation and escalation. A more publically active role by Thaksin himself will further inflame their passions and rhetoric. Pro-Thaksin forces have demonstrated a willingness to fight back. Their recent mass rally was an impressive show of force and there are elements within the pro-government ranks who are itching for a more direct confrontation with the PAD.
But there are also possibilities for restraint. Even the most rabid Thaksin supporters must realise that a violent clash will play directly into the PAD’s hands. Sustained street violence in Bangkok is PAD’s best chance of bringing on a military coup. Thaksin’s strategists have surely decided that a series of high profile, well attended and peaceful pro-government rallies will hurt the PAD much more than a street fight.
The PAD is also under restraining pressure. The 7 October incident may well be the high point of their provocation. The Queen’s explicit support for the PAD in the wake of the October violence was a short term public relations coup, but it has almost certainly raised high level anxieties about the royal family being drawn so publically into the political fray. Senior backers of the PAD may be looking for some breathing space, so that the royal family can be disentangled from the problematic imagery of political confrontation. Efforts to convince the PAD brigades camped out in Bangkok to disperse have reportedly picked up speed.
There are plenty of possibilities. What are your thoughts on what happens next?
19 responses so far ↓
1 David Brown // Nov 19, 2008 at 12:26 pm
I believe the pro one-person one-vote democracy people have strength of the big majority of Thai people and should stay calm and, as much as possible, ignore the PAD
(I have to keep using the one-person one-vote descriptor because the PAD, and others, keep trying to twist the meaning of democracy)
The PAD are declining in support and, if left alone, I think will fade away with some desperate death throes.
The traditional powers in Thailand will have to accept this tactical defeat and hopefully, like similar military-industrial right wing forces in other country will gradually learn to manage their own place in the political scene.
2 Nick Nostitz // Nov 19, 2008 at 12:57 pm
So far the PAD always had some ace up their sleeve, and with a Master strategist like Chamlong i would not call its demise yet. Many times in the past people have expressed the wish that PAD might simply fade away. There are still many supporters both – private citizens glued on ASTV, and institutional.
There are many possible strategies, and i would not dare making any prediction on what may happen. As long as PAD still occupies Government House, and PPP threatened with dissolution, anything is possible, and the situation has to be watched day by day.
3 Sidh S. // Nov 19, 2008 at 3:27 pm
TRT/PPP/PT are clearly gearing up for a new election and with PMThaksin’s direct media campaign through “Truth Today” roadshow around the country, might even secure a majority in the next elections. They will still need minor parties to guarantee that constitutional changes get passed – and, if the win is big enough, amnesty for PMThaksin. They might even be confident enough to fire the top military brass and put all their men in place.
They will have to move quickly, as even the best qualified/prepared government (which they are clearly not) will struggle to deal with the very possible, serious recession next year. But not to worry for Thaksin’s fans – PMThaksin, master of turning crisis into opportunities, will order house dissolution after he is cleared to return to politics, and come back as prime minister to ’solve’ the crisis.
PMThaksin will not leave anything to chance this time and will want TOTAL control. We’ll have the biggest societal purge in history where the Thai Police will play a very prominent role. We’ll have lots of ‘collateral damage/deaths’ from War on Drugs and lots of kidnappings/disappearances. PAD leaders and their sympathizers will go into exile in England but Thaksin will make sure they pay for what they did to him with interest… PMThaksin will not have to apologize for his “honest mistakes” anymore.
For South East Asian politics, a new breed of prominent Prime Minister Oligarchs in Myanmar, Cambodia – following the Thai model – rise to reap the economic benefits of ‘mutual cooperation’.
No, I am actually clueless on what will happen – and will agree with Nick that Thai Politics will have to be religiously followed on a day-to-day basis (maybe even hour-to-hour). I have just only outlined my educated guess of PMThaksin’s plans – at least the ideal version.
I’m afraid it is a plan which will never work – and not because of PAD’s resistance and that no one should meddle with the military reshuffle for politics anymore – but because PMThaksin is served by unloyal, greedy, self-serving politicians maximizing on his electoral popularity. Once in power, their agenda will take priority over his and they will mess up – like last time. The next TRT/PPP cabinet better be filled with his immediate family – Yinglak, Payap, Chaisit, his three children, his nieces and nephews… If they have the appetite for ugly, divisive politics that is…
4 Clean out of magic bullets!? // Nov 19, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Your site says ‘new perspectives’, but it seems you are locked into analysing the future moves of those right-wing business, royalist and uniformed groups (and their brainwashed supporters) who have long monopolised Thai politics. To engage in analysis of such a worn-out gramophone groove is to go nowhere. I suggest you climb off the fence and go looking for some genuine alternatives to the current knob-rot of Thai politics and political punditry.
5 Clean out of magic bullets!? // Nov 19, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Nick Nostitz’s comments are a classic example of the rut this site is in. Why bother to label the Chamlong as a “master strategist” when it is so blatantly obvious that his strategy is going nowhere new. One can only be a “master strategist” if one creates a breakthrough situation. Do you really think that Chamlong is capable of such a breakthough? I can’t think of a battle Chamlong ever really won conclusively, either in the military or out.
6 Nick Nostitz // Nov 19, 2008 at 5:23 pm
“Clean out of magic bullets!?”
Well, in this political battle, the PAD has already managed once to first force new elections a few days after Chamlong has openly broken with Thaksin and joined up, and created enough turmoil to inspire the military to stage a coup.
Since it’s re-appearance last year PAD has been called almost defeated many times. Facts though speak for itself – two violent clashes, several violent incidents, many members of Senate and “independent” organisations still in strong support of PAD.
Just because presently there are at most less than 1000 PAD protesters in Government House does not mean that PAD is defeated. Before Chamlong and Chaivat were arrested, there were also very few people in Government House.
Underestimating the PAD has already cost the government and Police a lot. I would suggest not making this mistake. This is far from over.
“Sidh S.”
Thaksin never was in “total control”, and never will be. He may make a come back, or likely not, but total control will not happen. He won’t even be able to control his own party. He never was in this position. This is impossible – Thailand is made up of too many factions of power, some far more powerful as any elected politician, yet, as we can see, not anymore powerful enough to solely dominate the scene ignoring the will of the increasingly political aware population of previously apolitical sectors of society.
There may be many greedy and self serving politicians in TRT/PPP, as there are in any other political party in Thailand including the Democrats, but TRT/PPP also has many politicians with a clear vision for Thailand’s future who see Thaksin’s popularity under the population as a way to develop democracy and civil society in Thailand. They are aware of the difficulties, and that uncomfortable compromises have to be made along this way.
The drug war is the most misinterpreted example of Thaksin’s rule.
The drug war, as it was done, was only possible because all different groups of power have agreed on this course of action. In the present political situation, and for the foreseeable future, such an agreement is not possible.
Thaksin alone could have never done the drug war in such a radical fashion.
Any drug war that is or has been announced after the coup, and resulting arrests, is nothing but increased budgets for border units, as it was under Samak, or increased controls of known offenders, and a slight increase in raids, as it is presently now under Somchai.
The only prediction i would dare making is a future of political and social turmoil. Fighting drugs and other problems will take a secondary role at best.
And we can see already now that drugs are making a huge come back. This development will only increase with the coming economical problems.
7 Contributor // Nov 19, 2008 at 9:39 pm
As anyone knows the game is not between the PAD and the DAAD/UDD/PPP/PTP and alikes. The game is played in another higher table and it will be there that a way forward will be shown on day. Although many people is pushing the military are the one’s less interested in staging a coup. They know what it will take for the country and know what it will take to run it in the difficult days to come with the economic crisis affecting Thailand. But there are some strong pushes that they cannot stop. TS decision to fignt back I think it is welcome. No more this dual mode. “I am out of politics but talk to you and intervene whenever I want” though it may help ignite the slow burning fire. One thing is know to everyone. With the currect actors this farse cannot proceed anymore. They are too bad actors and it is needed a new cast for the novel to get again on top of the audience charter. Looks rusty, smells mould. And meanwhile the Democrat Party concern is with the internet ruling and not with proposing solutions for the future of the nation.
8 Sidh S. // Nov 19, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Nick #6, I have said that the scenario I’ve laid out is my speculation of PMThaksin’s ideal plan (based on following his premiership for 5 years and his post-coup movements for another 2). I also said that it’s unlikely – and not only because Thai society is uncontrollable for the most part (and I agree with you there). It is also because he has a long documented tendency to monopolize power and seek control whether it be of power, money and media (admittedly, I still kept getting fooled – I totally believe the Bahamas and Bermuda stories). No Thai politician has ever been this ambitious – even if they are, none has been as talented and ruthless… And this is the root of the current crisis.
A large group of urban-based Thais will not let PMThaksin get away with his excesses while PMThaksin want his 73billion assets back (enough money to come very close to controlling Thai society. There’s a good chance that he’ll be able buy out the Democrats this time – having succeeded in only buying a number of Democrat politicians the previous times).
“… TRT/PPP also has many politicians with a clear vision for Thailand’s future who see Thaksin’s popularity under the population as a way to develop democracy and civil society in Thailand.”
Either you are kidding me or they are kidding themselves…
But pray introduce us to these high-minded TRT/PPP pollies (among the majority of greedy, hopeless, unprincipled, self-serving low quality stock) and what exactly they have in mind for Thai Democracy and civil society? Why do they need Thaksin’s popularity AND notoriety to achieve their goals? What will they do with their Capitalist-mafia colleagues?
9 HC lau // Nov 20, 2008 at 12:16 am
I am not a big fan of any politician – I am just a big fan of better living for the ordinary folks. For all the big fan and supporters of the “democratic” party (quotes intentional) and the PAD, please name one thing good that the ‘democratic” party has done for the better living of ordinary Thai citizens.
10 Dog Lover // Nov 20, 2008 at 4:14 am
Sidh: did you mean to suggest that there is a minority of politicians who are high- and civic-minded, not greedy, hopeful, principled, and high quality amongst the TRT/PPP group when you stated: “But pray introduce us to these high-minded TRT/PPP pollies (among the majority of greedy, hopeless, unprincipled, self-serving low quality stock)…”?
11 Sidh S. // Nov 20, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Dog Lover, Nick suggested it in #6. I expect he’ll give us some names (and, along with it, some hope) soon…
The bombing of PAD at Government House last night suggests PMThaksin at his impatient and violent best – only a day or two after openly declaring war against his enemies. As we have suggested, Thai politics at this moment has to be followed by the minute.
“Fatal blast hits Bangkok protest ” in
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7738853.stm
12 Dog Lover // Nov 21, 2008 at 12:14 am
Sidh: These were not exactly Nick’s words and I wondered if you had slipped up, considering that there were such politicians and were keeping them to yourself. Now I see that you can find none and seek others views on who are the appropriate leaders and political players hoping to become more optimistic.
I tend to think that if you draw back from the minute-to-minute then you might see a more optimistic perspective. In other words, one may not need to blame Thaksin for an event for which there is no evidence only supposition. Equally, no particular need to think that PAD might be responsible for these attacks on their own supporters/pawns. One may not have to read too much into Suriyasai seeming to call for civil war and carping about the military’s failure to intervene by way of a coup.
Rather, one might see these political troglodytes and dinosaurs in their death throes or being significantly transformed. To what, we may not be sure. However, we know that the monarchy and the judiciary are being transformed. The military looks as though it is being transformed as well. Political parties are becoming more interested in politics. The poor and dispossessed have developed a hope and a voice. NGOs and social movements have been forced to think about what their leaders are doing. Students have been re-energised.
All of this could amount to zilch in the end, but probably not. For me, it is not the political dinosaurs that will drive political development in Thailand. Increasingly, it looks like the global economic crisis is going to come into play. Some might see this as a threat to a more “progressive” outcome in Thailand but, equally, the chips might fall in another way and support a more progressive, democratic Thailand.
That’s the optimistic view for sure, but there are , to quote the great Ian Dury, some reasons to be cheerful (maybe).
13 Sidh S. // Nov 21, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Dog Lover, thanks for your optimism. And yes, we can just conveniently blame yesterday’s bombing on the “Third Hand”. However I don’t think the criminals are that anonymous – as there are people in the know, from PMSomchai to MajGenKhattiyaa Sawadipol (both closely linked to PMThaksin), who has mentioned that heavy arms will be used against the PAD protestors. As they are people in power, it is unlikely we’ll get to the bottom of this as is the case of Oct7th (where there are video footages in the internet as evidences)…
On the other hand, for the immediate future, there’s not much to be optimistic about. As long as a former prime minister who is also a convicted fugitive refuses to submit to the Thai judiciary system and who can still commands significant respect and influence over Thai politics. Regardless of whether the cases against him are “politically motivated” as he alleged or not, this is very fundamental – otherwise where would this conflict end? Amnesty to all factions involved? What precedents does this set for Thai Democracy? As long as you are popular and win elections by big margins, the rule of law does not matter?
PMThaksin must remember that in his 2001 assets concealment case, his actions were clearly illegal. However, the judges made their decision and his enemies accepted it.
Just as the US Supreme Court decided the 2000 US election, which was clearly politically biased and unfair to Al Gore who won the popular vote, he had to accept it. At times, true leaders has to sacrifice themselves for bigger principles that benefits society.
The troubles will continue as long as PMThaksin thinks he is above the Thai judiciary system and his supporters only think of self-preservation…
14 HC lau // Nov 21, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Koon Sidh,
Thaksin above the law, PAD above the law, declared desire to overthrow govt not illegal, demonstrations with armed guads and bombs not illegal.
Seems like everyone in Thailand is above the law. Police have to ‘ask” permission from PAD for access to govt house to investigate bombing.
My question is – is the govt house now under a different country’s jurisdiction? Since when does the PAD or Sondhi “own” the govt house?
Anyway, too many questions and not enough answers as everyone seem NOT to want to “SEE” the obvious.
My personal take on the bombing – just figure who benefits from the act? PAD support is waning, Chambron said it himself when he laments the dwindling numbers at PAD marches. This bomb can re-ignite the PAD cries – smells like conspiracy and burnt flesh of sacrificial lambs
15 Dog Lover // Nov 21, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Sidh: I did try to open a broader question and to move beyond the pro-/anti-Thaksin mindset. Seems I failed.
You should read Suriyasai’s interview in the Nation on the 20th. His position is not that dissimilar to yours on the need to put Thaksin in jail. He then says that Thaksin might then be able to legitimately claim that he is in the mould of Nelson Mandela. That suggests a remarkably narrow knowledge base. What is more likely to happen if Thaksin is put in jail (or assassinated) is that the big war will be on for all. I suspect that is what some in the PAD leadership crave.
16 Sidh S. // Nov 24, 2008 at 4:42 pm
KhunHCLau, yes, everyone is behaving above the law – but my argument is quite basic. The prime minister, in any functioning democracy, must be the standard-bearer of the rule of law. It is his clear role under the constitution. In any mature democracy, the issue of accountability is fundamental and the punishment is much more severe for office-holders that break the law – as it should be.
The problem we have today, where everyone disregards the law, stems from PMThaksin’s power abuses and cynical approach to the 1997 Constitution (e.g. the fundamental issue of conflicts of interests in the assets concealment case. Legally, he can’t hold controlling shares in ShinCorp, so he lets his driver and servants hold it instead).
And it is in the rule of law where PMChuan is a superior prime minister to PMThaksin (not in other areas ofcourse – but the rule of law benefits society more in the long term, I argue). MajGenSanan Krajornprasat, then the Democrat’s kingmaker, was convicted of precisely the same case in the late 90s – there was no fight to the death. That should have set a landmark precedent but was totally ignored by PMThaksin…
PMThaksin, as a former prime minister and arguably the person puppeteering PMSomchai, must submit the the rule of law FIRST. PAD leaders will then certainly get their day in the Thai courts…
17 Sidh S. // Nov 24, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Doglover, if PMThaksin gives in and goes to jail quietly, they’ll be no war: “My people, I have made another honest mistake. This time I will have to go to prison for it. I deserve it as I broke the law. Please wait for me for 2-3 years. I will come back to serve you”. If he goes in fighting and cursing, swearing revenge – the country will have to split as one PPP MP suggested. Thailand will be reduced to the central and southern regions. Thaksin will rule the north and northeast (which one will be more democratic would be another question). Like the partition of Pakistan from India, people will have to choose which country they want to stay in.
The latter scenario is already ongoing, especially if we see exiled fugitive on the run as a form of being in ‘prison’. PMThaksin was running the PPP government from his English ‘prison’ – it is now Dubai (like mafia bosses running the crime syndicate from behind bars)…
I doubt PMThakin’s ‘assassination’ will lead to an all out war, it would more likely translate a big political mandate for politicians close to him who can lay claim to be his ‘heir’. Whoever they are, they’ll likely govern better than the current PPP without his influence and interference.
Doglover, believe me, I’d like to see it beyond the pro-/anti-Thaksin mindset. I just can’t as it is the main show that dominates Thai current political space. It is certainly narrow, sad as it is… It is also violent – which is only Thai and rather hard to explain to HCLau (and most foreigners not familiar with the naunces of the elite and street rules).
(RULE #1: Don’t bother to protest against ANY Thai elite without being armed to the teeth. HCLau would have missed the news a couple of weeks ago of Klongtoey vendors protesting against eviction got a bomb thrown into the protest:
13 injured in explosion near Klong Toey market
in
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/13/national/national_30088331.php)
18 HC lau // Nov 25, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Koon Sidh
I don’t miss anything, just like to see the bigger picture. being a trans-national for the last 25 years has made me see the light and the PAD is a dark cloud indeed.
I was in pakistan when Zia Ul haq (remember him) plane got bomed out of the sky.
Slept under the bed in a manila5 star hotel, financial district, during the military coup – end of marcos era
I was in kathmandu when the price hosed down the rest of the royal family with a machine gun
Been in Indonesia through a lot of riots
Now living in malaysia when the opposition party finally made in-roads into the governing system – won state govt in 5 states. (racial riots in 1969 – had a couple of weeks off school hurray!)
Guess what – all the blood shed perpetrated by mobs, demonstration etc did not do any good to anyone except set everyone back several decades. ordinary citizens are suffering and will suffer more
People who go to these PAD type mob gathering consist of die hards, paid ignorant, and a bunch of instigators to keep spirit up. None really know what’s going on and what is the real agenda behind the so call leaders. Going thru the name list of the so call PAD leaders will show that the agenda is not so “kohsher” and harping on Thaksin is simply a rallying cry – nothing more
19 R. Dayley // Nov 26, 2008 at 3:34 am
Sidh. S.,
Principles and conviction matter but so too do strategy and tactics. Please explain to me how PAD imagines how Thailand will be once they rule and “New Politics” is instituted? Will they allow their opponents the right to engage in the same types of “civil disobedience” strategies and tactics they did for years? Will a PAD government (if it ever were to be) show the kind of restraint on protesters as PPP governments? Very few governments worldwide would ever allow PAD-style siezures and disruption without cracking down.
Please convince me that PAD strategies today wouldn’t come back to haunt them later (assuming they could actually oust this government and end majority rule democracy in favor of “New Politics”). I don’t get it. Don’t they simply want to rewrite the rules in their favor just like everybody else before them? The core problem in Thailand is not Thaksin or the PAD, the problem is a political culture that values political victory over the fundamental principle of the rule of law. Thaksin…PAD… they are all the same: no respect for the rule of law. I feel sorry for Thais who crave the rule of law. Democracy, above all, is about the management of peaceful political conflict and peaceful transfer of power of one set of leaders to another, is it not?
Please explain why PAD is any different than Thaksin in this respect.
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