The celebrations by the yellow shirts at Suvanabhumi will be short-lived. The Constitutional Court has struck a blow against the elected government. Somchai has gone. Twelve cabinet members have gone.
But Thai Rak Thai, soon to take on its third incarnation, remains.
The parliament has not been dissolved and the government looks very likely to maintain its majority. The Democrat-except-when-you-can’t-win-an-election-and-then-a-judicial-coup-is-OK Party simply can’t muster the numbers. More blatant judicial or military intervention will be required to remove the government.
After the respectful lull for the king’s birthday, the People’s Alliance for Democracy will be back with new targets and provocations. But their yellow ranks may be thinner. Their international and national reputation is in tatters. Released from the cult-like hot-house atmosphere of Government House and Suvarnabhumi a good number of the “aunties with clappers” may decide that dabbling in terrorism is not for them.
The greatest threat to the PAD is, of course, the formidable political machine that is Thai Rak Thai. It has proven to be an extraordinarily resilient party political force. Formed in 1998 by police lieutenant colonel turned telecommunications magnate Thaksin Shinawatra, it has survived concerted efforts to destroy its popularity and legitimacy. It has endured large-scale popular protests, a military coup, corruption convictions, a bloody record of gross human rights abuses, two dissolutions and the dismissal from power of three of its prime ministers. With the end of the People Power Party, the Thai Rak Thai cadre will now line up under a new banner, Peua Thai.
When it first won an election, back in 2001, the memorable Thai Rak Thai campaign slogan was “new thinking, new action, for all Thais”. Delivering on many of its promises to devote attention and resources to rural issues and the plight of the poor, it has been deeply unpopular with parts of the middle and upper classes. The Thai Rak Thai government challenged powerful players in the existing social and economic order while Thaksin helped himself and his family to some of the spoils of office. Thai Rak Thai has paid the price ever since.
Nonetheless all previous efforts to remove it from Thai political life have failed. If pushed it could mobilise crowds on the streets of Bangkok that would dwarf the anti-government forces. Of course, in the coming months, Thai Rak Thai 3.0 is likely to face even greater threats to its existence. It is clear that some people have staked their futures on a Thai political system where elections have a diminished role.
This is a future that former Prime Minister Thaksin and his populist tacticians are working very hard to avoid.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Tony Loader // Dec 3, 2008 at 11:39 am
A little introspection and an admission to its shortcomings on behalf of TRT and its proxies would do nothing but good for the party’s successor. It might even win back some of the support it lost over the conduct of its despicable anti-drug and far-South campaigns for example.
This would then establish a clearer choice for Thai electors, many of whom now neither support PAD or TRT proxies (that is, those whose wardrobes are strictly neutral).
As I have posted elsewhere on NM, the onus is then on PAD to admit to its own failings (a forlorn hope?) and form a legitimate party of its own, pushing its own agenda, particularly as the Democrats remain as indecisive as ever.
As a farang who should probably shut up and mind his own business, I write here in hope!
2 David Brown // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:50 pm
hi Tony…
as a farang (like me) maybe you dont know how bad the drugs problem was becoming….
the Thaksin drug war was successful in its objectives of substantially suppressing the drug trade generally and drug taking in Thailand
and it really inconvenienced and annoyed some of the rich that were making money from the trade
so, how much of the tragedy is a beatup by the rich and powerful and how many deaths should legitimately have been pursued as unnecessary outcomes?
since that drug war, the drug trade has grown again, notably over the CNS period, which is why there have been further attempts early this year and just lately to try to suppress it again
drugs as you should know are a despicable problem and Thailand is in the centre of supply so especially vulnerable… i think instead of whingeing, people should ask themselves and propose what they believe should be done about the problem?
Do you have suggestions or only criticisms?
What can i say about the South, the problem continues… i think the same question applies…
for Sondhi (the master of blaming other people for his own faults) its really easy to criticise… i keep waiting to hear any positive suggestions from him!
3 nic // Dec 3, 2008 at 11:13 pm
is it “POPULIST” the right definition for the TRT social politic?
4 NoDorm // Dec 4, 2008 at 2:40 am
PAD stands for People’s Alliance for Democrat (Party).
There is no way they form a party because there is simply no point as voter will vote either way (eg. The Democrats will get the same number of votes even if PAD and Democrats merge). As such, PAD will remain a proxy for the Democrat Party.
Abhisit reminds me of Nick Leeson of Barrings Bank UK. A young lad trying to prove something, but eventually destroys the institutions that nurtured him. It cannot be disputed that he has shifted from the principles of Democracy to a silent advocate of tyranny.
5 Angelo Michel // Dec 4, 2008 at 11:06 am
As a foreigner here, I do not have any prejudice against TRT/PPP or any other avatar of the same party.
What is happening is the second “hand-wash” of corrupt and fraudsters in that political movance, and it should be hailed !
A strong political current exists in the slot named “populism”, and Thaïland is not the only country to be like that, it is an indiscutable fact.
The stake here is not (should not be) to eliminate it by any means, but to eliminate the corrupt and those who use fraud as a way to get to power.
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