The East Asia Forum has an overview piece on Thailand in 2008 by Dr Pisit Leeatham, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at Chiang Mai University (and Head of the Macroeconomics and Finance Working Group of the Thai National Economic and Social Advisory Council and formerly Deputy Minister of Finance). After a rundown on the year’s politics, he discusses some of the economic challenges. Here is an extract:
The major challenge for Thailand in 2009 is political stabilisation. It is not certain whether the new government can cope with the pressure from former PM Thaksin and his supporters while they seek to resolve growing political and economic problems. It is a high mountain for a relatively young leader like Abhisit to climb, to restore political stability and ensure the continuity of his government while he weathers the storm of internal conflicts, the global economic crisis, social political problems, and the separatist movement in the South. The positive side of the current government is that it has backing from the army, bureaucracy, and the business community. … Though it is difficult to be totally confident, there is some light at the end of the tunnel of the political troubles in Thailand, and that is bound to help the economy.
12 responses so far ↓
1 David Brown // Dec 30, 2008 at 12:01 pm
the real challenge, as usual, is to predict the future and work backwards to an optimum solution
for those that believe that the democracy genie is out of its bottle in Thailand and even Prem wont be able to put it back this time, the optimum is for the TRT/PPP/PT government to be in charge and let free to implement rescue for the Thai economy… and the only highly qualified and experienced leader should be brought back to direct the effort in person
for the reactionary that believe that a new leader will be able to continue to hold Thailand together in its traditional rule by rich families then muddling on with inept weak democratic rule may seem like a reasonable price to pay
2 Mark Johnson // Dec 30, 2008 at 2:59 pm
This looks like another boring recitation of PAD talking points; not surprising considering the source is a former Democrat politician and Bangkok Bank official.
This view of the PAD is far closer to how they want to be perceived than what they are and appears very naïve when compared to more sophisticated views in international media.
The PAD (in the yellow shirts) is comprised of middleclass citizens, urban elites, academics, state union leaders and a broader coalition of those against Thaksin.
I would lump this article together with the Foreign Ministry’s letter to the Economist as examples of how the old elite’s cloistered lives don’t allow them deviate in the slightest way from the storyline their propagandists have handed them.
Is there anything at all new in this article? No.
3 Sunflower // Dec 30, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Discontent comes from injustice. Thailand’s growing crisis of governability because Abhisit Vejjajiva is illegitimate.
The interference of Prem Tinsulanond (Chairman of the Privy Council), Anupong Paochinda (Army Chief) in arranging Abhisit Vejjajiva to power has destroyed the core of democratic principle. Throughout Thai political history, majority of Thai have been fighting for democracy. They feel democracy has been robbed from them when illegitimate Abhisit became PM. Because of this cheating, majority of Thai is against Abhisit.
The lower rank soldiers voted against Abhisit’s party and for Thaksin’s party. The split between Anupong and majority of soldiers is clear. Abhisit was unable to enter the parliament, he went to the army for help. The lower rank soldiers shouted, “We don’t like terrorists.”
Private sectors are against his choice of ministers saying that Thailand cannot afford amateur during the global slowdown. The ministers from his coalition parties are inexperience, incapable, and with serious history of corruption.
Illegitimate Abhisit Vejjajiva should step down before he further destroys Thailand.
4 doctorJ // Dec 30, 2008 at 6:05 pm
This kind of opitmistic (wishful thinking) viewpoint is rather out of touch.
The political rift that was kept under the rug (by the newly appointed goverment and some local medias) did remain and ready to outburst another round of violence at any time.
Abhisit’s cabinet was manipulated by so many factions since the day one (military,PAD,Newin et al, ….)
The failure to bring the law-breaching,terrorist act etc to justice,inevitably disable rule of law.
Aren’t these enough to foresee the fate of Democrat led gov,”running out of time from the start”
5 max // Dec 30, 2008 at 7:01 pm
I don’t understand how this is going to be resolved peacefully…the brutal repression of the “Reds” that they so clearly desire would only lead to a greater disintegration of the state through their deeply flawed visions that would surely be mismanaged. “The Manager” has prepped their egos and bolstered their ideology under a bubble of impunity to ensure that they are fully unaware of what successful management looks like when the consequences of their ignorance and violence are manifested.
The most important and clearest goal in this political haze is to neutralize and declaw the army, because only then can any real political reform be accompished.
6 Srithanonchai // Dec 30, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Pisit was also a spokesperson for the coup-appointed Constitution Drafting Assembly. In that capacity, he gave an utterly boring PPP at the FCCT, turning up with a sizeable entourage. He is a typical member of the Bangkok technocratic elite, though he now seems to have emigrated to Chiang Mai.
7 Thobphon // Dec 31, 2008 at 2:55 am
Mark Johnson: Judging from the author of the article, and after skimmed over it, I was not surprised at all that the article is very politically polarized.
The real pressure is not how Abhisit can cope the current situation, I believe how can the current government cope with the majority of the people (I suppose, but this might change after the Newin’s group defection) who voted against and are unhappy about the current government. It doesn’t mean that, in order to get support from the opposition of the Democrat Party (which are not always the rural poor, we should not imply stereotypical view here I believe), Abhisit immediately needs to resign or dissolve the parliament, but I just wonder what means and to what extent he is going to use those means to gain back supports from his political enemy (or his “companion’s” political enemy).
I suspect the tactic Abhisit will use is to revive the Thaksin’s infamous Populist policies (at least from the PAD’s world view) and relabel them to something that sound positive, like Social Welfare, or Social Contract. I am eager to see what is the reaction from the Abhisit’s rejectors.
I believe, we need to wait for some period to see the effect of the “Change” that Thai society is going to face.
By the way, I don’t mind Abhisit as the PM, because in parliamentary democratic system, the house majority are not always able to form the government (Japan during the 90’s, for example). However, I “DO” mind the method the Democrats used to become a government.
p.s. I mean offence to no one but I think we should put apart the hatred of the person or groups (by whatever reason we choose to), and need to carefully tackle down the issue by the issue itself. I’m not saying that I’m a neutralist (apparently, I’m very polarized), but I try to at least think neutrally.
8 Markus // Dec 31, 2008 at 3:07 am
Whilst certainly not a supporter of Thaksin OR the old “Amata” power clique, I do have a sincere love of Thailand and its people due in part to my wife, life and work colleagues here.
“discontent comes from injustice” says Sunflower. How true. Let us ask of the one of the previous government’s victims of a war on..erm..something. A few thousand victims, I seem to remember. Injustice? Absolutely.
A name of a place, can’t quite remember, two words. One begins with ‘T’ and the other begins with ‘B’, both end in ‘i’. Four dozen people died. Injustice? Absolutely.
Yes, Thaksin was a breath of fresh air for many as he broke the old model of politics back at the beginning of the century. He did some good things to help poor people, surfing a wave of the world economy and TV (owned) popularity, but did too many things (half a dozen off the top of my head) to enrich himself at the expense of the country. A substantial number of previous supporters turned away from him as the number of corruption (strangely not human rights!) allegations began to mount.
Without further getting bogged down in details, I would like to offer the following:
In my humble opinion, a former PM did some good but ultimately spent his time enriching himself, his family and his friends. PM’s before him were often found to be corrupt. Is one worse than the other? No! There is no innocent party here.
At least the current incumbent appears to be qualified for the job. He is a privileged (!) man with a good education. Will he treat the press with disdain? Will he be a braggart who’ll hide from the press in a toilet? Will he be a submissive tool of the military who owns land in a national park? Will he declare war on something to sacrifice a few thousand lives for some kudos? Will he face thousands of mildly rabid (choose-a-color) demonstrators on the streets organised by a first/second/third/fourth-hand? Will the “Amata” be able to stop pulling strings? Will his inexperienced members of government prove more useless than the last government’s?
Only time will tell. At least give the guy a chance.
9 Jim Taylor // Jan 1, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Pisit, get real, the real challenge is to right the wrongs created by current illicit forces in power. As popular Bangkok activist monk Phra Payom Kalayano said: rather than fixing the economy Abhisit has to fix the deep seated hatred felt in Thai society caused by the Democrat/Amaat/military alliance against Thaksin. The demonizing and re-imagining of Thaksin by consistant fiction was as an attempt to pull people over to the Democrats/and the status quo ante. The trouble is it went too far and did not work as most people who saw the direct benefits of a Thaksin led Government in improving the quality of their lives (even below the sub-district level) were not convinced by the sophisticated propaganda campaign through the media. How to heal the rift? That has to the responsibility of those who stage-managed this hatred four years+ back.
10 udon thani expat thailand // Jan 2, 2009 at 5:06 am
2009 will be terrible for thailand unless all sides except no one power can triumph over the will of the pepole
most votes should always win power but when greed destroy.s thailand from within and i feel that day is comeing
the likes of vietnam and cambodia will profit from the tourist.s
of tomorrow while thailand kicks her heels
11 LouisW // Jan 7, 2009 at 3:20 pm
If you watch ASTV1 you will see the utter exorbitance of the PAD propaganda, celebrating the airport siege and Abhisit’s heave to power as “peoples’ victory” – not wondering as the channel is Sondhi’smedial outlet. But this utter arrogance won’t do the Abhisit administration any good. What the ASTV makers may consider as education of the mass on the blessing of PAD will in fact deepen the rift in Thai society. It is the mere lack of respect of different opinions and the inability to find a compromise that prevails in Thai society and the PAD shows it aggressively. The so-much prayed for unity of the Thai nation which has been engineered over the past decades is now cracking on political differences. Instead of self-glorification the PAD should rather work towards a national reconciliation as Abhisit tries to do.
However, when looking deeper, one can see the current rift of the Thai society as a work of Thaksin clique. His rise to power was like an uprising and defiance of the regions, especially the north and northeast. And his overt disrespect for the Thai elite only could conjure this drift. Thaksin came as a hero, unfortunately, his own greed and arrogance was less honourable.
On the other hand this crisis is the process in which the previously voiceless parts of Thai society emancipate themselves from being mere vote-bringer to an active player. The elite may have restored their power for now, but it is just a matter of time when the old order will be seriously challenged. Let’s hope that the Thai nation will not apart over it.
12 Rogera // Jan 8, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Is Thailand going the way of Korea? Will there be a North Siam and a South Siam? I have nightmares about the possibility. As for the light at the end of the tunnel, yellow or red is immaterial. So long as it is not the bright WHITE LIGHT welcoming you to the next life!!
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