New Mandala

9 responses so far ↓

• 1 aiontay // Feb 18, 2009 at 1:02 pm

  While the elections certainly are a factor, it was only a matter of time for this conflict to come about. The regime has effectively turned over territory in a feudal fashion in order to maintain control over the whole. Now they are in the process of solidifying control over the whole country which entails reasserting control over Wa, and other ceasefire groups, territory. There’s one snippet of information I’d like to know: what is China’s policy?

• 2 Stephen // Feb 18, 2009 at 9:06 pm

  The Shan State East Tatmadaw commander’s statement that “The Wa need to either surrender or become a local militia force under the Defense Services,” highlights some interesting parallels between 1) the current efforts of the SPDC to subsume at least some of the disparate ceasefire groups within the larger Tatmadaw and 2) the situation in central Burma in the mid 1950s where the AFPFL sought to consolidate local strongmen and their decentralised militia (who had earlier joined up to fight off the Japanese but had developed into their own little fiefdoms) within networks of local Socialist political leaders and then turn them into ‘field units’ and bring them under formal Tatmadaw authority. (On the latter, see Mary Callahan, Making Enemies, 2003).

  At the time, the government and military needed to allow these disparate fiefdoms to continue as allies in order to be able to gradually extend and consolidate formal authority over what would have otherwise been anti-State insurgents. And now, as Aiontay notes, “The regime has effectively turned over territory in a feudal fashion in order to maintain control over the whole.” Similar to the Wa, the SPDC has reportedly ordered the DKBA to turn themselves, if superficially, into a border security force under the (at least nominal) authority of the SPDC. Or am I reaching a bit too far with this?

• 3 Charles F. // Feb 19, 2009 at 5:34 pm

  The DKBA has long done the bidding of the SPDC, at least since 1995.
  They smuggle drugs, guard drug shipments and labs, battle the KNLA, and engage in the sex slavery market.

  The SPDC wants the UWSA and the SSA to buckle under, turn over their weaponry, then submit to SPDC authority.

  The Wa and Shan are resisting, but for how long they can do so remains to be seen.

• 4 Moe Aung // Feb 20, 2009 at 8:04 am

  Interesting development among the Karen indicating that the other splinter group, the KNU/KNLA Peace Council led by Brig-Gen Htain Maung, and not the DKBA, might turn out to be the SPDC’s border force at Three Pagodas Pass:

  http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=15094

• 5 Charles F. // Feb 20, 2009 at 4:23 pm

  The KNLA has already tried at least once to kill Htain Maung. I’m sure that this development will give them even more incentive to assassinate him.

• 6 Moe Aung // Feb 20, 2009 at 9:42 pm

  Hope you’re not encouraging assassinations, Charles. It’s a bankrupt policy with the US as a role model that never achieves any lasting peace and harmony within and between groups.

• 7 jud // Feb 21, 2009 at 2:46 am

  Junta urges UWSA to turn into militia group
  http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/1746-junta-urges-uwsa-to-turn-into-militia-group.html

• 8 Charles F. // Feb 21, 2009 at 8:47 am

  Moe Aung,

  No, I’m not advocating assassination. Especially in an open forum. I was merely pointing out that the KNLA has tried in the past to kill Htain Maung, and that they now have one additional reason to want him dead.

• 9 Stephen // Feb 26, 2009 at 1:00 pm

  A February 25th Asia Times Online article provides an excellent overview of how the various ceasefire groups are handling the dilemma posed by the 2010 elections. It’s well worth reading.

  With a year to go before the polls, ethnic insurgent organizations are being forced to decide whether to carry on the struggle or become state-controlled militias… For many Myanmar analysts and ethnic leaders there is a real worry that a military showdown is brewing between the generals and the ethnic groups that could tilt the region towards fighting on a scale not seen in over 20 years… With little faith in the central government and its post-election promises, many other ceasefire groups say they will retain rather than give up their arms.

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