The possibility of horrific, choreographed violence leaves me speechless.

Thank you very much for your insight into how this might play out, Sidh S. The 2006 coup was my first and the aftermath of that is bad enough for me. It’s radioactive half-life still seems to be on the order of a decade.

The ISOC also seems to be very much the sort of “secret police” and “death squad” detail that Thaksin unleashed when he made the part of the country I live in into a settle old scores, free-fire zone a few years ago. Although undoubtedly these troopers are more “professionally trained this time round”, that is cause for greater, not less alarm on my part.

Thaksin was “only” officially after some drug dealers. That’s not even a really serious crime when kept at “moderate” levels. The military and the police themselves engage in it during “normal” times.

But a conspiracy aimed at overthrowing the government, the army leadership and important institutions in the country is the kind of thing that really “justifies” going over the top.

It sounds as though they are going to bleed the nation of the “bad” element in order to return the nation to health and “purity”.

I hope this is just bluff talk, but it wasn’t bluff talk last time. And when they get the bit in their teeth organizations like the military don’t let up until they’ve so outraged and exhausted humanity that they simply cannot go on any longer.

Look at my country the United States of America. Two failed wars, millions dead, and a bankrupted nation later the charming man selling change we can believe in (he and Abhisit are twins, aren’t they?) is sitting atop the “gains” of one aggressive war and escalating the other while the Treasury burns.

Just because the pilots in the cabin of the US’ airline are bent on flying their plane into the ground doesn’t mean that Thailand has to follow.

What’s at stake from the belligerents’ side, really? A few more years of the “good” life before they have to accept the consequences of their long run of missteps no matter they want to or not. They’d sooner push down the pillars holding up the temple than accept the really rather meager changes that would allow everyone to muddle through.

That’s what I’m afraid is going to happen.

PMThaksin was well aware of that when he bumped GenSurayud upstairs (on their conflicting policies – business vs. security orientations – on the Myanmar border issue, if I am not wrong) he was said to call GenSurayud and asked “P’Aed, will you stage a coup against me?”. Before the 2006 coup it was PMThaksin’s “person above the constitution” and the tussle widely reported in the Thai media (and not just the English dailies) with PMPrem.

Post 1992 Black May, the military was discredited and the 1997 Constitution was also designed to keep them out of politics. By re-politicizing the military (especially after PMChuan-GenSurayud attempts, albeit slow, to reform the military), PMThaksin laid one of the many seeds of the 2006 coup. And what a transformation for them – from despised in 1992 to ‘hero’ in 2006 for many urban Thais (led by the same MajGenChamlong!).

Things could surely get worse – especially if there’s a violent crackdown on the Reds who are being rallied by PMThaksin’s very frequent phone-ins in the past few weeks. However, as long as the the security forces are professionally trained this time round and properly equipped (e.g. no more Chinese-made tear gas-bombs), it may not be that bad. Besides, in GenAnupong, they have a very cool-headed operator indeed.

Of course, PMThaksin wants an election now, before the highly capable Mr.Newin takes over Isan (via control of the Interior Ministry apparatus for one) and before PMAbhisit becomes comfortable in his leadership role (as some polls are already indicating). However he represents himself with people with highly questionable social standing (Chalerm), incompetent if not also corrupt underlings. Rumours of the Red leadership taking ‘a cut’ of the rally funds must have some truth when he decided to manage the opposition through his immediate family members (none of whom have any of Mr.Newin’s talents). Having AjarnGile’s spiritual and intellectual support is likely to erode his support further – especially if exploited by government.

In the longer term, the sad thing for Thai democracy is that PuerThai Party has not evolved into a viable opposition being dominated/handicapped by PMThaksin’s very personal agenda. Newin’s Bhumjai Thai Party is rumoured to be building a financial war chest that will attract/’buy’ PTP’s MPs into their ranks. PAD, in some reduced form, may also jump into the political fray.

Observer’s #11 “three main components” can’t even begin to comprehend the complexities of Thai society/politics/democracy – or any society/democracy for that matter. On the other hand, Observer’s components, when complemented with my 13++ components (more permutations welcomed!) in #15 and #16 is arguably a much more practical tool, better equipped to assimilate more “evidences” (refering to Nich’s).

Are the regime’s stooges at the Bangkok Post and The Nation now helping to beat the drums on behalf of the military for more blood sacrifice?

Talk of the 2006 coup came first from The Nation, they seem to have the inside track on military thinking. I dismissed that as over the rop at the time. I thought it was passe. Little did I know…

Jonfernquist’s bolded talk of marxist foreigners plays into that anti-communist, anti-republican, anti-people rhetoric.

Things might be about to get very, very much worse here in Thailand.

Jon F:

And of course, your anecdote-based generalizations must be applicable to every foreign scholar who comments on this website! Or to anybody who just happens to disagree with you on LM, the PAD, etc. Yes, we’re all here just a bunch of ignorant, self-righteous, disrespectful, ivory-tower Marxists especially if we dare question what’s shown on Thai TV at 8:30 pm every night. Ah, but you’re a foreign scholar too, but you’re not like the rest of us, as you’re “enlightened” and see things the “Thai” way.

In case you were wondering, yes my family is Thai, and I am no Marxist. In fact most people would consider my political views to be conservative. But of course, I don’t claim to speak for all Thais, or all conservatives. I think most people on this site don’t claim to speak for others either – they speak becausae they have informed opinions based on their unique experiences. And in case you weren’t clear, you only speak for yourself too – you do not represent the unadulterated “Thai” view against some ignorant “foreign” view. You speak for yourself. Which is fine, I don’t think anyone disagrees with your right to an opinion. Nor should you denounce people for signing letters that express their opinions either.

Imagine how you’d feel as a parent of one of the murdered civilians.

For me this highlights the staggering obtuseness present in Thailand.

What actually happens is that the locals (and us locally based and compensated Farang) sit around and listen to the Farang experts who are really clueless and not helpful at all because they don’t have enough on the ground knowledge to know what they are talking about (exemplified perfectly by the so-called realm of images hill tribe displacement article by these blog authors based on media reports). [One particular meeting stands out, when we were supposed to present our plan to educate hundreds of second year university students, meeting ended up consumed in the personal argument between s female PhD Farang expert from Univ Oregon dueling with a much less paid lower status female PhD Thai educated at University of Wisconsin, by the end of their duel everyone had forgot what the meeting was about]

The reality is that foreign institutions will be at the top of the heap in Thailand prestige-wise, for sure, but until they become more engaged at the ground level and less ivory-tower-esque faux-Marxist-drivellists, forget it, they are just not worth listening to.

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/22/us/thai-donor-to-democrats-pleads-guilty.html?scp=7&sq=Kanchanalak&st=cse