No knight on a white horse with a bundle of cash and much more, which it can’t do without, has thus far appeared on the horizon.

It is thought that not many people with deep pockets would risk choosing sides openly and donating to the alliance …

The funds to keep afloat the ASTV cable station and newspaper, which are the broadcasting and publishing arms of the PAD, are reportedly depleting. The revenue from advertisements is barely enough to pay staff salaries, said a source who complained the path to new politics was strewn with spikes.

The source said if the pay cheques are late, staff are distributed 10 bags of ‘‘ASTV rice’’ to make ends meet until they are paid.

In other words, the company is struggling to get its financial act together.

At this rate even if the PAD has the mind and muscle to get the party rolling, achieving anything without the ‘m’ factor is out of the question.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/145962/padhas-many-loose-ends-to-tie

well, I guess we “agree to disagree” – particulalry regarding who needs whom more. so, I stand by my statements.
(I’ll skip “ridiculously slippery slope argument” remark )

but I do not “discard the PAD” as you say. if you read my previous comments, as my answer to Ngadaleeng – I still consider PAD as a source of too radical and ruthless poisonous demagogic propaganda, therefore very misleading. so, I neither “discard” nor “underestimate” PAD.

let’s wait and see who is right or wrong.

it is pretty clear that PAD has no real substantial influence, because even now already PAD is quoted (on Nation) saying something like :

‘Power not primary objective’
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/06/08/politics/politics_30104566.php

to me it actually means that they do realise pretty well that they can’t win any substantial number of seats. that’s why they are trying to make such excuses in advance, like “oh, we are not actually eager to get power”. silly ! or even stupid.

Let me again remind you that between 1992 to 2006, the 2 colors you refer to lost a lot of their ‘power’, only to be regained once key ‘liberalists’ (PAD leaders) aligned themselves with a self-serving media magnate (Sonthi) in an attempt to oust Thaksin. That these “liberalists” sided with the real elite allowed the military out of the barracks to enact in a power grab resulting in the see-saw of power games we have seen till today.

Even today, with almost explicit “invisible” backing and a ’successful’ putsch against Thaksin’s Red Shirts, the current government is hanging on only by a thread.

Anyone can see that by entering politics with weird or almost nonsensical statements like “We only wish to make politics clean, etc.” show that the PAD leadership is at odds and a little bit dazed right now.

Like a torn person, the PAD can no longer decide who is their worst enemy, the ‘untouchable’ caste who has aligned themselves with the Devil Thaksin, or the ‘elite’ class who used them.

I argue is crazy to discard the PAD. The PAD obviously don’t want to leave yet; but when they do (and they will soon if things remain stagnant or if a very particular charismatic person passes from the scene), and the PAD align themselves with certain aspects of the Red Shirt (less Jakraphob, Truth Today, and Thaksin), you will the formation of a very real and extremely powerful force that will have the khaki shirts and the grey shirts quaking in their boots and wetting themselves.

I do not succumb to your ridiculously slippery slope argument stating that the PAD are stuck in a lose-lose that Thailand will either fall to a popular uprising from the Northeast or turn into a facist state. No one will financially support the first, and the image-concious elite will have too much trouble in the Western world justifying the second. For all their complaints about the western world, the elite love travelling and showing off their ‘virtues’ to the foreigners who ‘don’t understand’ Thailand. Shades of facism will be too uncomfortable and there are a lot of Royal-Liberalists who will not give their “independent” backing of this kind of state of affairs.

There is one difference I would like to make though. The Red Shirts can live without the PAD, and perhaps even achieve their long-term goals without the PAD. Though, a joining of PAD and Red alliance would be game-changing.

There are no permanent enemies in Thai politics, so it will be interesting how things go.

Again, I agree with you that the PAD were only successful because of the backing from behind, without which the PAD would probably have been just another footnote in history. But the PAD also provide the only fathomable legitimacy (as of now) for the invisible people to keep in control. Blue and white shirts have not caught on and probably won’t either. There is no obvious bottom-up part in that organization that the PAD achieved.

So again I conclude, for the elite to remain powerful, they do need the PAD more than the PAD need them.

The PAD can always (and are) rebranding themselves as a group who will remain clean and fight all dirty politics, as such, they will try their best to remain ‘clean’. If pushed too far, I am sure that the PAD will go back to the battle of 1992 as their rallying cry.

well, I am not spending so much time on them lately as I used to. just a litle bit.

as for name change …. ha, I know – you’re trying to catch me.

name still has to remain as a reminder and as an encouragement to create awareness – coz their ideological propaganda is too fallaciously poisonous and rutheless and therefore still needs to be exposed. (if it wasn’t – there won’t be the whole this discussion here and some people claiming that PAD has got some credits for something which is too obviously and evidently belongs to others).

besides, they are perhaps the main if not the only comparatively open target to aim at – apart from Abhisit and Dems may be. “open” in the sense that they are “in the open” (not that they are “open minded” or liberal ), on the surface, while others (army, judiciary, elite, etc.) are more like concealed and therefore it is more difficult to critisize them, or often impossible (for the lack of exposure or some taboos).

naturally being on the surface or acting as the cover – they get all the fire, being on the surface or acting as the cover, which is precisely the whole design of their puppeteers, I guess.

so, they can’t complain about it. hahaha

but anyway, thanks for reminding me – I was thinking the same more or less in past few days (like “wasting my time”).

regarding “Who warned them” – well, that I guess you should ask Nation newspaper (or MCOT ?), who as usually do not bother much to provide sources for reference. I merely tried to quote by memory what I’ve read in that article.

Who warned them?
Are they very smart or do they still have friends on the inside of the group that was apparently trying to destroy them?

Finally, if the PAD are so unimportant, perhaps it might be a time for a name change???:)

btw, I think you write some good stuff, but, by your own admission above, you are possibly spending too much time focussing on the wrong enemy.

I do not underestimate PAD. I am rather wuite realistically aware of their capabilities and role. but once again – I will never accept their alleged credit in removal of someone or in “change” for better !

they did NOT remove anyone and neither WILL NOT remove the “Old politics” or whatever the corruption. because they are themselves pretty much an integral part of the old system – many of their members are elite, or high-up middle class, as well as middle class.

so, yes – they do have SOME power and influence – however it is NOT a progressive power for real change, but a reactionary force !

therefore, they will not be able and even not willing to change anything. they only talk. in reality though – they want things to remain as they are – that rural majority continue being kept enslaved and provide an easy source of cheap labour, cheap food, cheap everything (and meat for brothels – another huge industry which elite runs and middle urban class enjoys).

that’s why they have joined or aligned with ultra-right, whome they themselves battled back in 1992. now though they support them – back in 2006 they supported coup, although in 1992 they vwere eagerly giving their lives to oust Suchinda.

why is that ?

so, as I said – I do not underestimate PAD. I merely view them in a more realistic way: as a reactionary, not progressive pro-democracy force. and that certainly creates a complications and difficulties for any change to happen in Thailand.

therefore PAD will bear the consiquences sooner or later for this their reactionary role. unless they correct their course and realise that they are doing disservice to country and place themselves at disadvantage (of being between hammer and anvil – doesn’t even metter who is the anvil and who is the hammer, army/ elite or grassroot movemement !) and even into dangerous risky position. because if the development of events takes some truly ugly turn (if peasants and labour get too pissed off and start slaughtering all the reactionaries – as most recently it was in Cambodia under Pol Pot), then PAD and their followers will be exterminated too, along with their masters and patrons.

or otherwise if opposite will happen (like some ugly ultra-right dictatorship ala Nazi Germany or later after WWII in Argentina, Guatemala, Salvador and
Chile in 70s and 80s or may be as what is Burma now?), again PAD will not be spared either, because in fascist dictatorship ANY sort of political and socilal movements will not be tolerated.

@tettyan

the main difference is that I emphasize that without the PAD, the elites could not do what they’ve been doing…

well, I can agree with this only to some extgent: in the sense that elite needs SOME sort of “cover”. however I don’t agree that ONLY PAD can be used as such. because for elite – PAD is just another disposable group. and they can compile and use any and many such groups. so, PAD is nothing special or unique in this sense – it just happened at that time that Sondhi started his own fight with Thaksin out of personal reason first of all. so, elite has simply taken opportunity and enriched, expanded, supplied and nourished PAD – which was ALREDY ready available. there was no need for them to create something new – it was CHEAPER so to say.

I know that elite (and to say more broadly – Amart) needs PAD and PAD needs elite. that’s the whole point.

however the difference is : this dependence is NOT mutually proportional. because elite can easily creat any number of other groups and movements (in other colors of T-shirts so to say ). and in last few months we’ve seen the examples of that : Blue shirts emerged in Pattaya, then later “white shirts” started their own so called “unity movement”.

so, elite / Amart doesn’t need PAD as much as PAD needs Amart !
and that’s precisely what PAD has realised and expressed already by saying many times “when they don’t need us anymore … ”

Amart can EASILY get rid of PAD, because for them it is disposable and expandable ! Sondhi’s attempted assasination was a clear message about it – because he started to talk too much and foul-mouthing his masters / patrons – and again, he did so because of … too good understanding that he and PAD are expandable !

if you might remember – Nation has mentioned after his attempted assassination that “Sondhi knew very well about it, and was warned – but chose to ignore it”.
there are also several videos where he speaks things like “while we were fighting for you – you were playing gold. and now you want to get rid of me? I’m not afraid – I wasn’t afraid even of Thaksin, and you think I will be afraid of you? if only even 1 single drop of my blood falls to the ground – you will see ! …”

so, why would he say that unless he knew very well that he and PAD ARE disposable ?

another example: Chamlong and Sondhi back in April , BEFORE the UDD started their rallies on Wed Arp 8th has issued a statement to all their PAD followers to “stay away from Bangkok for at least a week or two”. they said that time and later (also there are videos) that they already knew about a plan (mostly by army ) to create a situation where yellow will clash with reds on the streets so that take this opportunity to crash and destroy both of them. therefore PAD has strongly warned their followers NOT to get involved and in their statement published on MCOT ENgl. on Apr 12th (after cancelling ASEAN in Pattaya) news I remember Chamlong or Sondhi saying that they will NOT go to the streets and endanger their own members, as well as implicate them ! so, they already knew what is going to happen (the bloody crackdown).

so, my main point is : PAD already knew and continue knowing that Amart doesn’t need them so much, if at all anymore !

that’s why they have started to change the tune into “formal politics” (aka official party – which till even few month back was out of question !), their attitude towards “Reds” (as Sondhi saying : “we are almost same”) and the color of their T-shirts into “green-yellow”. I guess to change yellow color into some entirely different (without any traces or hues of yellow; although “orange” color is rumored as possibility of PAD uniting with UDD – I think it is out of question, at least by now) would be too abrupt and too blatant reverse of their course.

so, I consider Dickie’s point even more unrealistic than Tetyan’s :

“the elite need them more than they need the PAD.”

I don’t think so. and there are mamy too clear evidences of that – as I said, “Blue T-shirts”, “white T-shirts”, as well as the many other ANY colors in stock ! LOL

in fact, in Thailand there are only 2 colors which matter: khaki (the military) and gray ( as in the famous saying “gray cardinals” – the elite, judiciary and whoever else power brokers, rich chaps) – only these 2 colors have REAL and strong power and influence. other “rainbow” colors are disposable. even “white” or “blue” T-shirts too.

While I agree with what you are saying, I would also give PAD a LOT more weight than you have.

Remember 1992, a lot of the PAD guys are the same if not similar. As such, PAD has a ‘history’ of having at least landing a few tough punches (though not a knockout) on the military and the invisible involvement in Thai politics..

The PAD hold the key to ‘knocking out’ these power players, but the problem with PAD (less Sonthi) isn’t so much their ideology –> bottom-up organization, sustainable development, tough screening of government policies, et al –> but it is actually their sense of belief that they are ‘higher’ than the ‘other people’. As such, they side with the thai ‘elite’ but the basic structure of their belief in bottom-up movement puts them directly against the elite.

By the last statement I will refer to what they refer as the ’selling’ of votes of the ‘dumb red’ followers, and also I refer to their ‘moral’ high ground in banning Chang to be listed in the stock market as 2 examples.

I wouldn’t underestimate the PAD. As tettyan above said, the elite need them more than they need the PAD.

practically we are saying same things with slight variations.
yes, PAD played SOME role, but it was rather superficial.

You’re right, we’re not really that far apart on this matter. I think the main difference is that I emphasize that without the PAD, the elites could not do what they’ve been doing, at least not in this day and age. Manipulating events completely behind the scenes was possible in the 1970s and 1980s, but it’s harder to pull off today w/o attracting criticism. They need something that appears to be a popular movement to legitimize their machinations. The PAD need the old elite – but the old elite need the PAD just as much, if not more. It will be interesting to see what happens when the interests of the two sides begin to significantly diverge – some say it already has …

A statement that should rightly belong to “Comedy central”