In the wake of the April 2009 crushing of the Red Shirts, there was some speculation that Abhisit may be tempted to call an election sooner rather than later. I discussed this with a seasoned inside observer of Thai politics and he assured me that Abhisit would only call an election when he and his backers were sure they could win.
The Pheua Thai victories last week (in Sakon Nakhon 3) and this week (in Sisaket 1) suggest that a general election may be delayed as long as possible. According to Matichon Online’s unofficial figures Pheua Thai scored 123,557 votes compated to Chart Thai Pattana’s 75,420 votes. That’s 62 percent of the vote to Pheua Thai, almost exactly the same percentage as they scored last week in Sakon Nakhon 3. In the 2007 general election PPP scored about 52 percent in Sisaket 1, so they will be celebrating a 10 percent increase.
The Pheua Thai/Thaksin brand still has considerable electoral potency. As the unsuccessful candidate lamented: “even a lamp-post could win for Pheua Thai.”
11 responses so far ↓
1 nobody // Jun 29, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Abhisit will also face less problems from BJT as they lick their wounds and realise they need a longer period to get their message across. Indeed the government looks here for a while.
A big win for PTP but Abhisit probably wont be too worried. PTP and Dems remain the big players and the BJT experience is still developing. Now it looks likely to be a small to medium sized party rather than teh potentially big one a few short weeks ago some analysts were predicting.
One problem all face is that come the general election it is quite likely that there will be no outright winner and another messy interfered with and weak coalition is the result. That may well suit certain non-parliamentary players.
In the meantime it is quite likely everyone will avoid trying to make a mistake or misstep. PTP and the Dems seem to have their turf staked out. Maybe the battle lies in trying to eat the ground of others.
2 JwJ // Jun 29, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Thaksin has majority support.
No elections will be held.
Expect a coup when HMK passes.
3 Sidh S // Jun 29, 2009 at 6:55 pm
The house dissolution card is PMAbhisit’s main power bargaining chip (maybe the only one) against the deep influence of Suthep and Newin and he has/will certainly maximize it. It was a tool to deter unwarranted, unreasonable demands from coalition partners first and foremost. As I’ve mentioned before, the loss of BJT (and their nominee in the CTP) in the by-elections may have the effect of, ironically, strengthening the coalition. The previous over-eagerness of BJT ministers to push through huge controversial projects suggest a party filling up their ‘war chest’ to prepare for an expected election.
In fact, the NGV bus deal is almost like shooting two birds with one stone. The BJT can discredit/kill the Democrats in Bangkok (who tend to vote for the party perceived to be less corrupt) and use the money to dominate rural elections – thus they may be able to form government and put their man in the position of prime minister. It is now back to the drawing board for BJT and they must find a way to ‘out-sincere’ PMThaksin in the eyes of Isan voters. A bigger, brasher version of Thaksin’s ‘reality show’ at Artsamart clearly does not suffice.
It seems that PMAbhisit can now use the house dissolution at the most advantageous time for the Democrats – but all is not that simple as the Election Commission have seek to disqualify a sizable number of coalition MPs for holding shares in companies with government concessions. I think this is good development against corruption (does the rule now cover some of the loopholes and extend to immediate family too?).
4 Susie Wong // Jun 30, 2009 at 1:50 pm
มาร์ค เกี้ยว วีระ ลงพิธีกร เชื่อมั่นประเทศไทย
30 มิ.ย. 52 00.52 น.
อ่าน 7,443 ครั้ง
ทีมงานของ นายอภิสิทธิ์ ได้มีแนวความคิดที่จะให้นายวีระ มาร่วมเป็นพิธีกรนั้นเนื่องจากเห็นว่า จะทำให้คนเสื้อแดงสนใจรายการที่นายกรัฐมนตรีจัดมากขึ้น หลังจากที่คนกลุ่มนี้เลิกดูรายการต่างๆ ทางสถานีโทรทัศน์เอ็นบีทีไปตั้งแต่มีการยกเลิกรายการความจริงวันนี้
การกำหนดแผนดังกล่าวเพื่อดึงดูดให้คนเสื้อแดงมาดูรายการ
นายอภิสิทธิ์ เห็นด้วยกับแนวคิดดังกล่าว เพียงแต่ไม่แน่ใจว่า นายวีระ จะรับคำเชิญหรือไม่
From sanook.com
Brief translation:
Mark (Abhisit) woos Veera (one of the Red Movement leader) to join him as a host in his television program, “Confidence in Thailand”. The Red stop watching NBT channel after the Red’ program, “Truth Today” was cancelled. Courting Mr. Veera to join Abhisit as a co-host, it is hope to attract The Red Movement People to watch Abhisit’s program.
Abhisit agrees with this ideas but he is not sure if Mr. Veera will accept the invitation.
____________________________
5 Sidh S // Jun 30, 2009 at 3:44 pm
And another good development towards ‘reconciliation’ if true and if offer taken up by Veera:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/147442/pm-invites-veera-to-host-his-tv-programme
Veera may host PM’s TV programme
By: BangkokPost.com
Published: 30/06/2009 at 09:25 AM
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is reported to have told PM’s Office Minister Sathit Wongnongtaey to offer Veera Musikhapong, a core leader of the United front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), a spot on the premier’s weekly programme on Channel 11.
Mr Abhisit’s publicity team reportedly cme up with the idea.
Mr Veera would moderate the second part of the Confidence in Thailand with PM Abhisit programme which airs every Sunday at 9am.
His job would be to interview the prime minister.
The purpose would be to draw attention the red-shirts’ attention to the prime minister’s national programme.
Through Mr Veera, the red-shirts would be able to directly ask Mr Abhisit questions about theissues which bother them.
There was no indication whether Mr Veera would accept the invitation.
6 jonfernquest // Jun 30, 2009 at 4:05 pm
“The Pheua Thai/Thaksin brand still has considerable electoral potency. As the unsuccessful candidate lamented: “even a lamp-post could win for Pheua Thai.”
You don’t mention the most important fact: these by-elections were small victories in places that Pheua Thai already had locked down cold.
The importance of the by-election victory according to some is mainly motivation for Red-Shirts getting a second wind after their failed Songkran revolution.
7 Dang // Jun 30, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Oh dear ,The PM knows so well that if he ever call for an election,he will lose like fish on the sand.All he wants is to be a PM .He is proud of his Oxford degree and good accent which is better than Thaksin.
He realizes that he can never become PM without support from the army and the privy head.
He does not care for the voice and lives of the people (specially) the red shirts because they are uneducated ,sold themselves to Thaksin,and most of all these poor people do not understand what is democracy(he actaully means dictatorship).
8 years of starvation is torturing.It is sad that over 60 years do not teach them any lesson.Perhaps,too old to learn.
8 Michael // Jul 1, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Susie & Sid – unfortunately Veera has declined this bizarre invitation. See http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/147487/veera-no-to-hosting-tv-show A sanook quote: “Earlier on Tuesday, former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama said if Mr Abhisit wanted his programme to get a better rating he should directly seek advice from Thaksin Shinawatra.”
9 Susie Wong // Jul 2, 2009 at 2:09 am
Yeah, I know. Thanks, Mike!
I think PM Abhisit declined to debate with PM Thaksin via Phone-in format, further hurts Abhisit’s credibility. It only confirms what The Red Movement think of Abhisit that he lacks substantive knowledge.
I think a form of PM versus PM debate is appropriate, Abhisit should not be afraid by backing off on the proposal to debate with Thaksin. I hope to see PM Thaksin comes back home and has an opportunity to debate face to face with Abhisit. Let people decide who they want as the Prime Minister.
10 Andrew Young // Jul 2, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Let me remind all of you that Apisit didn’t become PM because he has the ability to do so. From the day he was born, this guy has not done anything to prove that he has the ability. He has no knowledge in any business at all. He was raised from a wealthy family. When he finished Eton, he went to Oxford and came back to Thailand to serve as a politician. He has never had any experience in doing any business at all. Before he became Thailand PM, he served as minister in some unimportant ministries. As for Mr. Korn who now serves as the Finance Minister, he too has no experience of any kind except in some shares sector. He may be good in manipulating shares prices but not the finance sector.
How much harm this two little kids will do to Thailand is remain to be seen. I can only think that the longer this government stay on, the more rotten Thailand will be. It will be a lesson for those elites who are behind this government. But this lesson is definately a painful one, especially for the poors.
11 Regular Reader // Jul 2, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Andrew Young #10, I have a question for you.
You seem quite certain, that both Abhisit and Korn’s previous “work experience” and “privilaged” upbringing, makes them both unfit for their present roles.
The question I have is : what sort of qualifications should people have, before they fit your “ideal” for these positions?
If you can answer, that, then can you please tell me, where are these “ideal politicians, who are capable of running a prosperous, free and democratic, Thailand ?
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