Comments on: The garlic roller coaster http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/ New perspectives on mainland Southeast Asia Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:39:39 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: More on the garlic roller coaster http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-661705 More on the garlic roller coaster Wed, 22 Jul 2009 23:00:21 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-661705 [...] week I wrote about the relatively long-term fluctuations in the price of garlic. In response to a couple of the [...] [...] week I wrote about the relatively long-term fluctuations in the price of garlic. In response to a couple of the [...]

]]> By: เด็กชายคิมหันต์ http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660927 เด็กชายคิมหันต์ Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:39:45 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660927 Re: The long term trend is completely flat - over the long term the real price of garlic has not changed. Yes, that's the purpose of using CPI-adjusted info. Well, there are two more points I'd like to mention here. 1. In Thailand, there are many CPI figures separately calculated & provided by Bank of Thailand and National Statistical Office. They are so interested in the core-CPI, that they target the RP rate on such a funny CPI. Though, those indexes are highly correlated, please make sure which CPI index you'd like to use. 2. If I can remember correctly, I've seen some example about a simple CPI-adjusted graph on front matter of Fa dieokan magazine. That's about Ministry of Defense budget over several decades. Re: The long term trend is completely flat – over the long term the real price of garlic has not changed.

Yes, that’s the purpose of using CPI-adjusted info. Well, there are two more points I’d like to mention here.

1. In Thailand, there are many CPI figures separately calculated & provided by Bank of Thailand and National Statistical Office. They are so interested in the core-CPI, that they target the RP rate on such a funny CPI. Though, those indexes are highly correlated, please make sure which CPI index you’d like to use.

2. If I can remember correctly, I’ve seen some example about a simple CPI-adjusted graph on front matter of Fa dieokan magazine. That’s about Ministry of Defense budget over several decades.

]]> By: Dominic Earnshaw http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660781 Dominic Earnshaw Wed, 15 Jul 2009 09:25:47 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660781 I don't know if you already have this, but here is a link to the Office of Agricultural Economics Yearbook: http://www.oae.go.th/download/journal/yearbook50.pdf It has national production data for garlic from 1999 to 2008. FAOSTAT has production data going back to 1961. Their data comes from the OAE as far as I can see. I also have another OAE publication with import, export and consumption data for the years 2006-2008 but I can't find the link to it on their website anymore, it just went through a re-design. I could email it if it would be of interest. Here is a link to the previous year's edition with data from 2005-2007. http://www.oae.go.th/download/document/commodity.pdf I don’t know if you already have this, but here is a link to the Office of Agricultural Economics Yearbook: http://www.oae.go.th/download/journal/yearbook50.pdf

It has national production data for garlic from 1999 to 2008. FAOSTAT has production data going back to 1961. Their data comes from the OAE as far as I can see.

I also have another OAE publication with import, export and consumption data for the years 2006-2008 but I can’t find the link to it on their website anymore, it just went through a re-design. I could email it if it would be of interest. Here is a link to the previous year’s edition with data from 2005-2007.
http://www.oae.go.th/download/document/commodity.pdf

]]> By: Andrew Walker http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660774 Andrew Walker Wed, 15 Jul 2009 05:45:01 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660774 Thanks for the comments. Very helpful. 1. In relation to production data: I have some data but only for a few more recent years. If anyone has any suggestions about a source for longer term production data at a national level I would be very grateful. 2. In relation to garlic import data: I also only have some data for a few more recent years (but not the most recent years as the Thai customs data for garlic imports seems to stop at 2006. ) Again, suggestions about sources would be greatly appreciated. However I suspect that import data is going to give a rather incomplete picture given relatively high levels of smuggling. 3. As for adjusting the garlic price data for inflation: I would love to do this. But I am not sure how to. Can someone help? If I had the inflation figure for each year I suppose I could figure out the maths. [Update: in fact I have tried it using some inflation data I found. The long term trend is completely flat - over the long term the real price of garlic has not changed. But the short term boom and bust pattern is equally evident, though some of the detail is modified.] Looking forward to further useful contributions. AW Thanks for the comments. Very helpful.

1. In relation to production data: I have some data but only for a few more recent years. If anyone has any suggestions about a source for longer term production data at a national level I would be very grateful.

2. In relation to garlic import data: I also only have some data for a few more recent years (but not the most recent years as the Thai customs data for garlic imports seems to stop at 2006. ) Again, suggestions about sources would be greatly appreciated. However I suspect that import data is going to give a rather incomplete picture given relatively high levels of smuggling.

3. As for adjusting the garlic price data for inflation: I would love to do this. But I am not sure how to. Can someone help? If I had the inflation figure for each year I suppose I could figure out the maths. [Update: in fact I have tried it using some inflation data I found. The long term trend is completely flat - over the long term the real price of garlic has not changed. But the short term boom and bust pattern is equally evident, though some of the detail is modified.]

Looking forward to further useful contributions.

AW

]]> By: Sidh S http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660771 Sidh S Wed, 15 Jul 2009 05:14:57 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660771 Fascinating and beautiful graph. As Jean-Philipe#2 mentioned, it would be interesting to see the graph adjusted for inflation/deflation. Fascinating and beautiful graph. As Jean-Philipe#2 mentioned, it would be interesting to see the graph adjusted for inflation/deflation.

]]> By: Jean-Philippe Leblond http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660729 Jean-Philippe Leblond Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:05:47 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660729 This graph is really interesting. About the 4-year cycle. As suggested by Dekchaikimhan, it would be nice to couple the price data with other data, in particular national production. If this 4-year cycle is caused at least in part by mini-boom-bust in production (which are caused by the farmers' general tendency to go in and out of the market as prices go up and down), there should be a similar cycle in production occurring one year in advance of the price's cycle. Btw, Kuntum (2003) identified from a short-term time series a 2-year cycle in the price of maize. Not sure what the cause is. Notice also that garlic was in a downward trend when the price of other crops was rising to the top in 2007-early 2008. About the long-term trend. I assume you plotted the price in nominal value. I know this is not your point, but I'd be curious to see what the trend would be if you use the price in constant value. ref: Kuntum K. (2003) An Analysis of Price Movement and Market lntegration of Maize in Thailand: A Case Study of Petchabun Province and Nakhon Ratchasima Province. [in thai]. Bangkok: Kasetsart University. This graph is really interesting.
About the 4-year cycle. As suggested by Dekchaikimhan, it would be nice to couple the price data with other data, in particular national production. If this 4-year cycle is caused at least in part by mini-boom-bust in production (which are caused by the farmers’ general tendency to go in and out of the market as prices go up and down), there should be a similar cycle in production occurring one year in advance of the price’s cycle. Btw, Kuntum (2003) identified from a short-term time series a 2-year cycle in the price of maize. Not sure what the cause is.
Notice also that garlic was in a downward trend when the price of other crops was rising to the top in 2007-early 2008.

About the long-term trend. I assume you plotted the price in nominal value. I know this is not your point, but I’d be curious to see what the trend would be if you use the price in constant value.

ref: Kuntum K. (2003) An Analysis of Price Movement and Market lntegration of Maize in Thailand: A Case Study of Petchabun Province and Nakhon Ratchasima Province. [in thai]. Bangkok: Kasetsart University.

]]> By: เด็กชายคิมหันต์ http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/14/the-garlic-roller-coaster/comment-page-1/#comment-660693 เด็กชายคิมหันต์ Tue, 14 Jul 2009 08:34:05 +0000 http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6027#comment-660693 This is quite interesting. However, the data provided is only the price. Another piece of information about volume of trade either domestic/import would complement the analysis. This is quite interesting. However, the data provided is only the price. Another piece of information about volume of trade either domestic/import would complement the analysis.

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