With the renewed Red Shirt protests on the streets of Bangkok, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban has denied that a coup is on the cards. If somebody had the time and patience it might be instructive to do a really deep trawl of the archives to see if coup “denials” have any relationship to the timing of Thailand’s previous coups. Does anyone have a sense (even a gut feeling) of whether coup denials are a good indication of an impending coup? Or is the relationship quite the opposite? I would be interested to hear your ideas.









5 responses so far ↓
1 Slack Alice // Aug 18, 2009 at 3:08 am
I have just paid the residents of my soi to manufacture and deliver a pre-emptive pardon to the highest authority in the land. Most of said soi residents have no idea who I am, and have never actually seen me, It appears, however, that they like both the color of my money and the swashbuckling manner with which I tell them complete porkies about how rich I am going to make them all. (There really is no point in giving charity unless one is completely assured of an eventual heavy return on the investment.) The idea is that I will be able to walk scot-free the next time I am caught red-handed in King Power.
2 nobody // Aug 18, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Coups tend to happen when the military leadership feel threatened. Maybe that should read army leadership. The head of the army usually makes sure his men occupy all those important positions.
I would guess a coup now would be more likely over military reshuffle issues. Then again who would pull it as it seems quite open that the military are divided. This years reshuffle must be quite a negotiation and that is even with the Thaksin supporters sidelined in this issue.
Coup rumours are thrown around for all kinds of reasons imho:
Real threats by military, real fears by government, posturing by an individual military or political leader, disinformation, misinformation, media scoop, media invention, coup prevention technique, a dont you dare to the government, add a whole rake more of things. At the end of the day in Thailand a coup is a regular part of the political agenda and will therefore always be part of the equation of what will happen.
3 Jim Taylor // Aug 22, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Fortune tellers are talking about it; the Saraburi barracks on the ready; the Democrat Party are starting to fall apart over the authoritarianism of führer Abhisit over the coerced, illegal and clumsy attempt to nominate a favoured yellow supporter Police Chief; senior police meeting at Thammasat threatening to bring the Dem Party down next week for a number of reasons, including taking blame and being ordered to let the yellow shirts off the hook when they were rampaging in public places; Newin and his mate Interior Minister Suthep are on the edge – including over Abhisit’s behaviour and Newin’s looming corruption charge over rubber plants (Newin said well, Ok, we should declare an amnesty for everyone-including himself!); the grand self-sufficiency project (and along with other similar “nicked” Thaksin grassroot initiatives) have caught the Minister for Social Welfare for one with his pants down over a high level corruption charge…The Red’s petition (not about Thaksin but fundamentally about democracy and frustration felt by so many) and the ongoing mischievous counter-petition enforced through the Min of Interior and Blue shirt thugs on a hapless and a thoroughly dejected population: a forthcoming coup? probably. It is all up to the army Nick. Burma here we come!
4 Regular Reader // Aug 23, 2009 at 12:00 am
Good to know Jim Taylor is still living in that cuckoo land he inhabited back in April.
Keep it up Jim.
Be careful of the men in yellow shirts.
Then again, some of the red shirts might want an embarrasment like you out of the way too.
Stop bending the facts and dreaming about a Thailand that will never be.
5 Ralph Kramden // Aug 23, 2009 at 8:51 am
Jim: Have you been reading the Nation and taking it seriously? Sure, all thes things you mention are in play and you left out some – how about the role of PAD at this point? Splitting the Dems could help them. Abhisit bungled by listening to them rather than Suthep. What about the reds? Are they likely to support a coup? Haven’t they backed themselves into a corner? If they supported a coup now, surely their game would be up too? Is this what Jakraphob has been warning?
Many reasons for a coup, but how about just replacing Abhisit instead of a coup? He’s been as weak as piss anyway. Wouldn’t the old elite prefer that given all the problems they had after the last coup?
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