On Saturday I had an article in The Canberra Times that surveys Burma policy and the ongoing sanctions debate. A slightly revised version of the article is available here at Inside Story. One of the key sections argues that:
On the one hand any such change in United States policy will be greeted as a victory by the generals. The senior leadership rejoices in its survival and in the combative instincts that have seen it weather years of critical international opinion and bad press. As self-proclaimed custodians of Burma’s independence they are prepared to wear a damaged reputation if the country remains united. It is, after all, a nationalist mission that defines their esprit de corps. On the other hand we should not assume that a shift away from sanctions-led policies means that all international pressure will evaporate. A well-crafted strategy for re-engaging with key parts of Burmese society, including the military and bureaucracy, is likely to increase pressures in ways that make the generals uncomfortable.
Two decades of disengagement, isolation and tough sanctions have not achieved the political reform sought by those who imposed such international pressure. What it has achieved is simply greater suffering of the poor, total collapase of the nation’s infrastructure (not directly because of sanctions) , the health, education, economic and social administrative structure of a nation. Now that the junta has access to some wealth, it has realised that they are unable to rebuild the nation without the health, education and well being of its people. Than Shwe is fast running out of time, like his mentor Ne Win before him, he needs to do good deeds in this life to redeem his soul in life hereafter. He is certainly not looking forward to history repeating when it comes to his family either. His personal security is at stake, if he really takes the step of retiring from his military position. The length and measures of brutality and ruthlessness he has engaged in protecting himself is proof his insecurity.
I see the sanctions as having achieved some results. I do not see that
any change in United States policy will be greeted as a victory by the generals”. There has been unprecedented decisions on the part of the junta, viz. meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi and allowing her to talk to the diplomats. These small concessions in itself are very ‘humiliating admissions’ that they need the help of one they have sought to destroy for so long.
“Ill-educated people with their resentment of learing and their need to prove the superiority of their ignorance cause much unnecessary suffering.” Aung San Suu Kyi, 1997.
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The question is who will outsmart whom, ASSK or the generals who have so far used her as a bargaining chip in the sanctions game with no intention of releasing her. She’ s been in the dock accused of being the perpetrator calling for the sanctions and hence blamed for the impoverishment, declining health/education standards and infrastructure whilst they’ve been running the country – into the ground – at the same time enriching themselves. She has managed to frustrate their move to sideline her in the new phase of ‘detente’ with the West despite her continued house arrest and exclusion from the imminent election campaign.
A well-crafted strategy for re-engaging with key parts of Burmese society, including the military and bureaucracy just to make the generals uncomfortable is pointless unless it can succeed working especially on the military and bureaucracy with regime change as its ultimate goal. The American Center and the British Council have already been condemned as subversive institutions encouraging dissent and sedition, so dealing with ‘civil society’ will have to be more subtle and almost exclusively business and skills oriented. The obvious risk still is the generals succeeding in outwitting and manipulating all comers to their advantage so they can carry on more confident than ever and growing from strength to strength.
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