Vajiralongkorn is a graduate from Australia’s Royal Military College in Canberra and has trained with the U.S., British and Australian armed services…His Western lifestyle is not discussed openly, thanks again to lese majeste. But people have privately asked whether he has the natural authority to unify the nation, especially given his partisanship towards the military. Meanwhile, the king remains convalescing in a heavily guarded Bangkok hospital as the unsaid succession to the throne gets thought about daily.
- Extracted from “Police on guard against anti-king comments”, UPI, 4 November 2009.
It is hardly surprising — given the inevitable international curiosity about Thailand’s succession – that descriptions of this type will continue to appear in newspapers around the world. Such descriptions tend not to be explicitly critical of the royal family, or Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, but they are, I’d suggest, one part of increasingly broad-minded efforts to understand the future of Thai society. These efforts are now coming thick-and-fast; on some days they are starting to dominate discussion of the potential changes that will come with the end of King Bhumibol’s long reign.
Some months ago I put together a tentative list of Fifty-two questions for the study of mainland Southeast Asia. Today I want to draw attention to question 41, “Is Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn really as bad as people make out?”. Well-informed answers to this question will, I’m sure, help journalists, analysts, academics and others to better understand Thailand’s longer-term prospects. Such answers may also help Thais who are interested in the succession to improve their own understanding of the palace, and its key personalities. We haven’t seen the end of newspaper articles that seek to describe (usually in very cautious terms) the potential for an even deeper political crisis. So it makes sense, I reckon, to attempt an answer to one of the questions that is lurking in the background of these commentaries.
Comments and suggestions from readers are very welcome here. You may even want to chance your arm…and offer an answer to the question.
14 responses so far ↓
1 Goombah Boy // Nov 6, 2009 at 7:08 pm
The big big flaw in the lack of open debate or transparency in talking about the Thai royal family is, that given the internet age we live in, such laws as LM actually damage the institution rather than preserve it.
First of all rumour becomes as powerful as fact.
Secondly no rumour can be openly discussed and therefore disproved in the court of public opinion.
So question 41 can never be answered. It will just be imposed. And anyone who dares to publicly digress could face a 15year prison term.
All this against a backdrop of Western media and so called human rights organisations in Bangkok (stand up Ben “we can see why Da Torpedo got 15years” Zawacki) who are pathetically acquiescent largely because they don’t want to lose their visas and they think Abhisit is ok cos he utters posh-Brit speak.
2 arthurson // Nov 6, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Last night’s dinner discussion brought up yet another rumor (with enough details to make it believable at least at the urban legend level) that “he who must not be named” has yet another wife. When the question is asked, “how many wives does he have?” the answer comes back, “hundreds.” This kind of gossip and rumor mongering goes on on a regular basis. People outside of Thailand ought to know this. The view that “he’s no saint” is a big factor why, although Thais certainly accept him as heir apparent, many don’t respect him because of these alleged aspects of his character.
3 Ralph Kramden // Nov 7, 2009 at 6:08 am
I want to ask the Australians to find out if he really graduated from Duntroon in the fullest meaning of that term. He briefly trained with the SAS following the end of his studies at Duntroon, but was called back in haste in time to play his notorious role in the 6 October events.
4 Chris Beale // Nov 7, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Ralph – I’d be surprised if any member of the general public or academic/ activist found anything more on this than is already in Handley’s book.
5 abejero | from the Big Apple to the banks of the Mekong // Nov 7, 2009 at 10:00 pm
[...] Hat tip to PPT, and read their About page. This is a good blog for those interested in Southeast Asia politics, especially with increasing political repression in Thailand in face of the impending succession. [...]
6 Chris Beale // Nov 7, 2009 at 11:14 pm
This elite obsession with “Thailand’s” Crown Prince is a distraction from the main question : whether the country can hold together ?
Just one example – given below – an opinion poll showing Abhisits’ popularity apparently soaring, because he “stood up
to Hun Sen” over Cambodia’s appointment of Isaarn’s hero Thaksin. Only problem with this poll ? = NO Isaarn opinion !Abhisit’s popularity soars three times for downgrading ties with Cambodia :
From The Nation, 7/11/09
“The popularity rating of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has tripled after his decisive action to downgrade the diplomatic ties with Cambodia, Abac Poll said in a survey released on Friday.
In comparison to 23.3 per cent in the survey in September, Abhisit’s popularity leaped to 68.6 per cent.
The prime minister was most popular in the South (88.2 per cent), followed by the Central Region (68.9 per cent), Bangkok (68.8 per cent) and the North (64.6 per cent).”
The Nation
7 michael // Nov 8, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Chris Beale: “Only problem with this poll ? = NO Isaarn opinion !” Not so.
“About 53.1 per cent in the Northeast voiced support for his leadership.”
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/read.php?newsid=30116044&keyword=abhisit+popular
8 Ralph Kramden // Nov 8, 2009 at 11:07 pm
Chris: With due respect to the Handley book, he doesn’t actually say anything more than the prince attended Duntroon and then had a stint with the SAS. Now if you were to read my post, I was asking if he graduated from the regular program at the former. Handley doesn’t say “graduated”. Some web sites have him graduating and others have him attending. The Age from Melbourne, which is available online says he got most of his higher education at Duntroon. Couldn’t someone see the public record in newspapers and so on a see how the event was described back then. That is usually the way research is conducted.
9 polo // Nov 9, 2009 at 9:32 am
Yes, he is.
10 Ralph Kramden // Nov 9, 2009 at 12:31 pm
polo: yes, he is what? At least Thaksin says nice things about him in the Times.
11 Chris Beale // Nov 10, 2009 at 4:21 am
Actually Ralph – Handley says a lot more !
But what a stir Thaksin seems to have created by praising the Crown Prince. Should n’t the entire Thai Cabinet, especially Abhisit and Kasit, now be charged with lese majeste for
disrespect to the Crown Prince – when it is quite obvious was doing nothing but heaping praise on His Royal Highness ?
This is the foolish fuse the Democrats are lighting.
12 Beau Geste // Nov 10, 2009 at 6:14 am
I don’t suppose anyone has considered the issues of consanguinity and polygamy?
Monarchies throughout history have wrestled with this problem.
Some of the attributed excesses considered unciwilai today were accepted in the time of King RamaV. It was Chulalongkorns concern about the views of western powers of the “civilised” development of Thais that started the adaptation of western “manners” What Thais now mutter and gossip about pruriently was previously acceptable (and understandable) behaviour at court.
The royal families of Europe are notable for their consanguinity and distaff offspring and it is only the christian morality ethic that binds them tiresonely to monogamy.
In fact monogamy and consanguinuity is not a healthy lifestyle as history has shown vis Hapsburgs/Romanovs & Saxe- Coburgs.
13 Ralph Kramden // Nov 10, 2009 at 12:15 pm
So tell me what more Handley says about Duntroon Chris. My copy only has 3-4 references listed in the index. Is the index inaccurate?
14 Steve // Nov 10, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Chris Beale: “Only problem with this poll ? = NO Isaarn opinion !”
As the excellent Siam Report describes* in detail, there’s a far bigger problem with this poll. Not reported by The Nation and Bangkok Post (and, presumably, most if not all Thai-language media) are the questions asked – and, crucially, the order in which they were asked:
Q 1: Do you know about Hun Sen’s interview in which he attacked the fairness of the Thai judicial system?
Q 2: Do you support the Abhisit government?
Asking the first question sets up the respondents for the second one – it’s a very familiar device and known in the trade as a “push” question. The second question was also asked in a poll on 19 September – but without the Hun Sen question being put first (of course not – Hun Sen hadn’t said anything at that point). In September, an overall 23.3% said “yes” (they did support the Abhisit government). The 6 November overall figure for those saying “yes” to the same question is 68.6%. That’s an astonishing jump – but only if you ignore the Hun Sen question being asked first (81.1% saying they did know about it)……… which entirely predictably turns the Abhisit support question into an Abhisit v. Hun Sen (effectively Thailand v. Cambodia) popularity/loyalty contest. Perhaps the only surprise is that the pro-Abhisit (v. Hun Sen) vote isn’t much, much higher……..
Lies, damned lies, statistics – and opinion polls with very dodgy methodology.
*http://siamreport.blogspot.com/2009/11/abhisits-popularity-jumps-30.html
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