There has been one big positive to emerge from Thailand’s recent years of political conflict. There is now something approaching a national consensus that violent repression of protest action is unacceptable. There have been exceptions, but the passionate debate that those exceptions generated points to a shift in the political morality of managing dissent.
This puts Abhisit in an extraordinarily difficult position. He has formidable legal powers at his disposal. The State of Emergency decree provides extraordinary powers of arrest, detention, search, seizure, expulsion and prohibition. But I suspect that both he and the security forces he has mobilised in Bangkok lack the will to enforce these powers. Abhisit’s credibility rests on the impression that he has brought a semblance of stability to Thailand in turbulent times. This impression will evaporate if a crackdown on the red shirts results in violence. He is young enough to take a much longer term view. For its part, the army may well be reluctant to erode its own political capital by implementing repressive action that will only temporarily prolong the life of a terminally weak government. Both the government and the security forces have pragmatic reasons to respect the new principle of non-violence.
Thailand’s new consensus also places responsibilities on the protesters. In late 2008 I was vocal in my condemnation of the extreme provocation practiced by the anti-democratic yellow shirts. I have had much less to say about the tactics of the reds. So far, I think the reds have managed this round of protest activity in a way that is broadly consistent with the new rules of the game. Their goal – a national election – is honourable. But taking advantage of the government’s non-violent response is a high risk strategy and it risks slipping from legitimate protest to provocation. The incursion into Parliament was a mistake that will give heart to the hardliners who yearn for a return to a more muscular era of repression.
The current round of political turmoil in Thailand is moving towards an endgame. It is an endgame with a very crowded board. If I am right about the new rule of non-violence, and if the reds don’t push their pieces too recklessly, further negotiations and some compromise on an election date is the most likely outcome. If I am wrong, the consequences could be very unfortunate indeed.
41 responses so far ↓
1 Hla Oo // Apr 8, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Cool-headed Thais have never ever committed violence just for the sake of violence unlike their cousins, hot-headed Burmese.
Historically the violent incidents in Thailand, whether countless number of individual assassinations or a few armed repressions by the military, in Thailand are always influenced by the commercial interests.
Current stalemate of non-violence confrontation will last as long as one side, most probably the military-backed royalists, still feels that their long term commercial interest are not seriously threatened.
But once the red shirts or Thaksin starts calling for the abolition of monarchy in Thailand the river of blood will flow on the Bangkok streets.
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2 Vichai N // Apr 8, 2010 at 3:48 pm
You are probably wrong Andrew Walker . . . again.
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3 Srithanonchai // Apr 8, 2010 at 3:55 pm
I am not sure whether this “non-violent” approach is due to any “new consensus” or to the context and form of the protests (applies both to the PAD and the UDD).
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4 anthapan // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:03 pm
@Vichai N: If Andrew’s wrong, when it’s all said and done Abhisit may have to seek some advice from some of his contacts at Kyrgyz embassy.
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5 GeGee // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:09 pm
Andrew, I think your commentary is quite sound. It always amazes me that commentators on things in Thailand are so fixed on what happened in the past, they find it difficult to admit that things can change – and sometimes for the better.
It’s not always a case of same, same, only different.
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6 john francis lee // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Their goal – a national election – is honourable. But taking advantage of the government’s non-violent response is a high risk strategy and it risks slipping from legitimate protest to provocation.
Taking advantage of the government’s non-violent response… you make it sound like the government has forsworn its “right” to kill Thais out of the goodness of its heart. Because it’s a “Democrat” government, no doubt.
It’s a military government and has been since 19 September 2006. The military has been pulling the strings since that date.
The idea that the Red Shirts are provoking the Putsch by their non-violent demonstrations is absurd.
What you are arguing for is “change without changing”. Where have I heard that before? Let the people “sound off” then pack up and go back home and we’ll review their “suggestions” and see if we cannot accommodate some of the utter inessentials.
The only people standing up to totalitarianism in Thailand… to the ability of the Regime to “legitimately” invoke a “temporary coup” whenever it deems it necessary… are the Red Shirts. If they were to go down the new military consensus, the convergent Thai-Burmese model… power in the hands of the military, exercised through their civilian puppets… would be a fait accompli in Thailand as it waits in the wings in Burma.
But the Red Shirts, the people, are not going to go down. The people have girded their loins for the long haul and have made up their minds that they must do “what it takes” to wrest control from the unelected elite regime. That is the real consensus in Thailand, and the people will pursue it, and it will take as long as it does.
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7 Srithanonchai // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:12 pm
P.S.:
Thanks for the nice banner picture. It looks like the coup group in 2006 announcing its evil act. That is, a picture of shame, and potentially a picture for future Thai history textbooks.
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8 chris beale // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:15 pm
Vichai N #2 – from opposites end of the political spectrum, I agree with you : Andrew is probably wrong.
I pray he is right – I pray a government of national unity will steer Thailand out of it’s current self-imposed trap, via another election soon.
But realistically, I don’t see this being successful.
In the long-term : there is no more “Thailand”.
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9 Nicholas Farrelly // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Chris,
You never did take up the challenge to defend your long-standing Thailand secession scenario. We have heard enough to want to see you put some meat on those particular bones…
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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10 David Brown // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:22 pm
presumably the military are willing to wait while Abhisit is on track to secure their amazing wealth creating budget requests and stand aside while they make their personnel reshuffle to further secure themselves in power
if it seems Abhisit and the government might give in to an early election then the generals will want to act but will have to face their uncertainty that their soldiers will obey their commands to dismantle the redshirts
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11 chris beale // Apr 8, 2010 at 4:23 pm
Nich – these events are still unfolding, it’s a moving target of a subject : I’m working on it – and will get back to you.
Thanks for your offer.
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12 Maratjp // Apr 8, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Andrew,
“He has formidable legal powers at his disposal.” Are you joking? When has a Prime Minister in the last four years had any kind of real authority? Did the military do what Samak and his successor ask it to do? Is the military doing what Abisit would like it to do?
As long as the Crown is worshiped like a deity it will let the military be the final arbiter of all things political here.
M
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13 Frank G Anderson // Apr 8, 2010 at 6:13 pm
The consensus is against you. Any lull in apparent violence against free speech is only because the violence has been transformed into legislated intimidation and repression. The oppression is now legal.
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14 Erewhon // Apr 8, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Andrew, everyone said the Thai military would never stage another coup, but in 2006 that is exactly what happened. So why do you think suppression of dissent will never take place? Now that the Redshirt TV station has been blocked, do you think they will not protest this when the Yellowshirt station is still operating? General Anupong will not use force, he retires in 6 months time and does not want violence and bloodshed on his conscience. I think the protests will continue until Abphisit announces a general election, but he will find it hard to do that because Peauthai (Thai Rak Thai Mark III) will win a majority. Democrats can only stay in power if they continue ot ally with Chidchob group.
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15 Frank G Anderson // Apr 8, 2010 at 7:23 pm
I have yet to meet a Thai military or police senior officer who was in any way at all worried about anything on his conscience. It is a hard judgment, but based on experience. Anupong is more likely preoccupied with affairs that we know little about. And he likes it like that.
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16 Jim Taylor // Apr 8, 2010 at 8:09 pm
this is not a game: push people to the limit and this is the consequence. There is no legitimacy in the current regime and trying to substantiate a reasoned argument along these lines is fallacious…futile and proven time and again to have failed. Abhisit is too thick to do anything but hold on to power that was taken from the people’s elected government. How can you talk about the rule on “non-violence” AW when more than five years on suffering, oppression and silence has been imposed on any oppositional voices to the present neo-fascist Thai political and social order; any resemblance to democracy in the current status quo is simply a mirage or fascade of Thaksin’s political reforms that were left behind/
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17 Hla Oo // Apr 8, 2010 at 8:43 pm
All the human societies of the world can be divided into just two types.
The advance ones which accept the following concepts that :
1) every human being, whether rich or poor, is equal,
2) the principle of one man one vote is a noble idea, and
3) the majority rule, however thin that majority, is the only political solution.
The primitive ones which obviously reject all three concepts and the ruling minority uses the violent repression to govern the majority .
Thailand now belongs to the latter class and the violence is the only mean to rule that society, as in Burma and China.
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18 chris beale // Apr 8, 2010 at 8:57 pm
Well said Jim Taylor# – and I now hang my head in shame for supporting the 2006 coup (because I thought Thaksin was becoming too powerful).
What has followed since – especially Abhisit’s born-to-rule
“no-election”, within any reasonable time-frame, utterly disgusts me. Ditto his stance on peace talks via Chavalit, Anand, LeekPai.
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19 Lek // Apr 8, 2010 at 9:16 pm
Sorry to say, I think your assessment of a “national consensus that violent repression of protest action is unacceptable” is based on a simple misreading of the 42 months since the last coup in 2006 destroyed that other national concensus – that there would be no more coups.
The concept that it’s wrong to violently suppress mass protests was re-invented by the Amart in the mid-2000′s to help facilitate the overthrow of Thaksin’s elected government by the PAD mob, beofoe and after the coup of 2006. With that mission now accomplished, the folks who put Abhisit in the premier’s chair are frantically seeking the right reason to chuck the whole concept and crack a few skulls.
May I suggest that the “right to suppress dissent ” is taken for granted in a society which still ascribes god-like qualities to its symbols and leaders and is ready and willing to imprison people for political blasphemy.
The only thing that has restrained these folks from violence thus far is the fear of failure. The army doesn’t want to get its hands bloody fighting to save the necks of politicians it sees as weak and vulnerable. Combine that with the generals’ genuine fear that they lack the forces to win a quick, if bloody, crackdown on an army of protesters, and you get the kind of inaction you see now.
If there’s any concensus in Thai politics today, it’s the time-honored military doctrine that you only use force when you’re sure you can win quickly and decisively.
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20 David Brown // Apr 8, 2010 at 10:37 pm
Lek… makes sense
if it was the US military they would underestimate their enemies and psych up their soldiers that they are foreign and primitive heathens and gung ho in anyway…
in this case the Thai military probably also underestimate the staying power of the reds
but the real fear of failure comes because the enemy is family to their soldiers, house slaves, toy girls and boys and the risks of rebellion could strike in very personal ways
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21 StanG // Apr 8, 2010 at 10:37 pm
PAD exploited this “newly” found consensus to the full three years ago.
The police blinked in Oct 7, 2008 incident and was universally condemned so much that they flatly refused to deal with the reds a few months later, saying they were unfairly prosecuted for that one fateful day.
Now the consensus is emerging that dispersing street mobs is absolutely necessary, a few more days and the consensus will be that reds blood is a small price to pay for peace and order, and they are asking for it anyway. Whatever people think of reds, “innocent victims” is probably the last thing on their minds.
I expect far more casualties this time around, no matter how hard the army will try.
Don’t forget to send postcards to red leadership who devised this strategy of sacrificing lives to make government look bad.
I suspect it won’t work at all, Abhisit might even come out with better approval ratings instead.
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22 Ralph Kramden // Apr 8, 2010 at 11:40 pm
Well said StanG. Ignoring you is often the best strategy, but here I want to congratulate you for your savage if small mind. What would we do without card-carrying fascists justifying military interventions, coups, privilege and now (he seems to hope) murder? The whiff of tear gas, the clack of baton on shield, and blood in the nostrils is so soothing for the jack-booted brigade.
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23 chris beale // Apr 9, 2010 at 12:54 am
StanG#21
“Abhisit might even come out with better approval ratings instead”
- so why not now have an election ?
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24 Noud // Apr 9, 2010 at 2:27 am
I find most of the comments here to negative. I think Andrew sees things quite sharp. Blunt violent repression of this protest would mean civil war and the military knows that. I’d put my money on Abhisit and the red leaders sussing it out with some compromise on an election date. The reds have every reason to assume an election is beneficial to them.
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25 Enrico Damanche // Apr 9, 2010 at 4:02 am
Signore Kramden, please do not be to harsh on Signore StanG. He definitely is not an intellectual giant nor he is an astute observer of the Thai political scene. Many of us Yellow Shirt veterans look with particular disdain on outsiders (especially farang) who pretend to understand the intricacies of our country – its politics, economy, society and culture – and who consistently engage in gross over-simplification of our political crises as struggles between good and evil. But he does have a point or two worth considering.
First of all, he brings to our attention the glorious battle and victory of the People’s Alliance for Democracy over the detestable Thaksin proxy regime on the 7th of October 2008. Our demands were not being met and so we took action like soldiers. I am not embarrassed to declare that it was necessary to sacrifice a few pawns for the greater good of the Movement and there was no hesitation in ordering our paid volunteers to confront the barricades and the police. It has been asked, “Weren’t these Yellow Shirt thugs brandishing weapons?” I retort, “Does it matter anymore?”
What was paramount was for the Movement to keep itself in the headlines and to wear down the puppet government through attrition. (Yellow Shirt veterans like myself remember that day with pride and with a deep sense of accomplishment. No one can take those feelings away from us.) The PAD emerged stronger, more united and more determined to install our own “democratic” administration. We had a martyr to hoist over our heads during our subsequent marches and later royal sympathies were bestowed upon us. Our media spin was so effective that we did contemplate another charge against the corrupt police but many of our supporters demanded extra payment as compensation for the extra risk. Imagine the shock of most of us Yellow Shirt boosters. Then again this is Thailand and money does buy loyalty. (However, I personally learned a valuable lesson that day. Middle class protesters are unreliable and fickle. I prefer proletariat types to act as both my shield and my sword.) Not surprisingly the foreign media assisted us in disseminating globally our message of authoritarian repression, State terrorism, and democratic change (we can count on). We had scored a major PR coup.
Tell me, who really supports the Red Shirts? Who listens to them? Who understands their babble? Who cares about their so-called “grievances”? Listen to me, these Red Shirts represent absolutely nothing.
Secondly, I suspect that Signore StanG would agree with me and other Yellow Shirts that sanctioned and legal violence on the part of the State can and should be used when the interests of the amart are being threatened or eroded. It does not make any sense to call out the armed forces to protect the life and property of peasants, labourers, and spineless bourgeoisie. Their primary function is to defend the structures and the institutions of the State from both foreign and DOMESTIC enemies, in other words, to maintain national security. (I love this concept and we elites really know how to use it for our own ends.) Let’s not be bleeding-heart liberals here. This is a high stakes game for power and wealth, nothing more and nothing less. Our way of life must and will be upheld. We will not tolerate usurpers such as the Red Shirts.
As for Abhisit, he is expendable. We always can find another “face” to function as the spokesperson of our “elected” government. I just hope one day that we can be so fortunate to be under the enlightened leadership of another General Prem Tinsulanonda.
Before I conclude my commentary, I would like to leave you with a plea from one member of the elite to another: Do not delude yourselves any longer. There is only one law which exists and is observed in this the Land of Smiles. Who out there is familiar with Kipling?
Buona notte. And may all your wishes come true.
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26 polo // Apr 9, 2010 at 10:11 am
I don’t think you back up the statement “There is now something approaching a national consensus that violent repression of protest action is unacceptable.” For one, it’s not even clear that acceptability was a factor in the past, if one weighs the way the military decided to move, the limitations on those moves, and the negative public reaction afterwards.
Isn’t it possible that a couple other factors are at work here today? : First, that the two sides are fairly evenly balanced and, unlike the past, neither has the ability to convince its followers or the public that a violent tack would succeed. And second, no one, especially the people at the top behind the scenes, can predict the outcome given the big-picture stakes of the future of the monarchy.
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27 banphai // Apr 9, 2010 at 11:17 am
Enrico Damanche, you really are such an excellent satirist, a worthy successor to Aristophanes, no less. Please continue to amuse us with your parodies. I, for one, always look forward to a chuckle at your next post. Your patrons amongst the UDD supporters should be well pleased with you, but be ever mindful that the use of ridicule can result in a writer simply looking ridiculous.
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28 Bh. V. // Apr 9, 2010 at 1:41 pm
It surprises me that PM does not take pages from Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America to guide his policy. Many people think this work that is sympathetic to Americans but in fact is from the hand of French aristocratic academic.
For example:
“I regard it as an impious and detestable maxim that in matters of government the majority of a people has the right to do everything, and nevertheless I place the origin of all powers in the will of the majority. . . I therefore think it always necessary to place somewhere one social power superior to all others, but I believe that freedom is in danger when that power finds no obstacle that con restrain in course and give it time to moderate itself.”
There are many, many more like this.
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29 Enrico Damanche // Apr 9, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Ah, Khun Banphai, you flatter me. And with all the sincerity that a satirist can muster I say, “Molto grazie”.
However, I assume from reading your post that you are the product of a good education. You see, that is what distinguishes us elites from the commoners. We are cultured. We are privileged. We are ethical. We are trendy. We are productive members of society. There is nothing wrong, I repeat, nothing wrong in embracing an amart identity. Why do people spew forth venom in our direction and champion the “rights” of the poor, disenfranchised and the marginalized? I humbly declare that it is just a waste of time and energy. Social justice is simply a mirage; it does not exist here in the Kingdom of Thailand, and it never will, mark my words.
I must confess that I have not come across too many people in the Land of Smlies (both foreigners and Thais) who would recognize the name of Aristophanes or even understand his contributions to world civilization. I am saddened to find out that despite the large investment of public funds by the Thai State in developing and improving the national education system of the country, I often see children and young adults playing around in rice fields, factory floors, marketplaces, office buildings, etc. Why isn’t the “future” of Thailand in school, memorizing their textbooks, listening to the instructions of their teachers, and learning how to behave? I cannot restrain myself any longer, “These phrai DO NOT deserve a place in the political arena. They bring nothing to the table.”
And yet, what does this country produce? Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai Rak Thai. Red Shirts. Water buffaloes.
Does anyone know what UDD stands for?!!!
UNITED DUMB & DUMBER
Before I sign off (I have an intimate working lunch appointment with one of my personal secretaries), I would like to leave all of you with something to contemplate, a gift of elite poetry and wisdom:
“By words the mind is winged”.
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30 StanG // Apr 9, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Consensus is not something born out of your intellectual efforts, consensus is what other people agree on, regardless of what you think or know is right.
By now it’s clear to everyone, including the reds themselves, that their insurgency cannot be contained without the use of force.
Abhisit might decide it’s better to capitulate or he might find that the army is ignoring his orders, but that’s being incapable to use force, not being unwilling to, due to some “consensus” formed between a couple of posters on New Mandala.
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31 Tarrin // Apr 10, 2010 at 1:01 am
StanG – May I add that consensus is what “majority” of people agree on.
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32 banphai // Apr 10, 2010 at 1:36 am
Enrico Damanche, whilst satire is amusing to some, it is nevertheless the lowest and most mean of human dealings.
The full quote from The Birds is: “ὑπὸ γὰρ λόγων ὁ νοῦς τε μετεωρίζεται ἐπαίρεταί τ᾽ ἄνθρωπος. οὕτω καί σ᾽ ἐγὼ ἀναπτερώσας βούλομαι χρηστοῖς λόγοις τρέψαι πρὸς ἔργον νόμιμον (Words give wings to the mind and make a man soar to heaven. Thus I hope that my wise words will give you wings to fly to some less degrading trade) .”
My thoughts exactly. You could become a red-shirt politician and educate the plebs.
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33 Bh. V. // Apr 10, 2010 at 11:06 am
Yom banphai,
You did not know Greek [phaasaa yuan] before and that is perfectly understandable! Why now would you now purport to understand Khon Muang?
Ayu, wanno, sukham, balam . . .
Bhikkhu V.
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34 Bh. V. // Apr 10, 2010 at 11:18 am
Yom Jim Taylor,
Nobody say it is a game. Please recall that the Red Shirts are even a minority of people that even voted for Thaksin and hope for something different. You are a Farang anthropologist and maybe represent some of your kin. Which of the Thai kin do you represent?
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35 michael // Apr 10, 2010 at 5:52 pm
Enrico, I find your contributions have much more in common, in tone & style, with the work of Swift , than that of Aristophanes. His ‘A Modest Proposal’, in which he suggests killing 2 birds (the problem of unwanted children & that of the shortage of good food) with 1 stone, is an excellent example.
‘banphai’ , history does not appear to agree with your assertion that satire is “the lowest and most mean of human dealings.”
Personally, I find Enrico’s work, along with that of Harrison George on Prachatai and of ‘Not the Nation’, provides some relief in this very serious situation – as well as a sense of perspective to the baffling & illogical statements of some commentators, many of whom seem deluded into believing they are democrats or, worse, have the best interests of this nation at heart.
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36 polo // Apr 10, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Re Enrico: Just what we need, another Italian from the Commedia dell’arte brandishing great rhetorical skills and dramatic concepts, and of course that ever-justified Italian political/cultural superiority complex (Berlusconi, anyone?) but very few real facts and little deep insight to tell us what is good and bad for Thailand. Mr Enrico, regarind Aristophanes, well I wonder how many Italians ever heard of, much less read, the Tripitaka? But certainly Italy is a much greater place….sets an example for the worl. (And how many tourists go to Italy for imprisoned Balkans and African prostitutes?) One could go on… but Enrico already has.
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37 banphai // Apr 10, 2010 at 7:22 pm
Michael, I completely agree with you – well, almost. My negative comment about satire was a paraphrase of a remorseful reflection made by John Ridd, the narrator of Lorna Doone. My reference was, of course, ‘tongue in cheek’ as I am confident our master, Enrico Damache, will recognise.
Nevertheless, there are many humour-challenged who do not understand satire and consequently find it offensive. For me, possibly like you, it is an antidote to the results of watching human folly.
Before my enlightenment and becoming a scientist, I have the burden of an earlier education in the ‘classics’ which enabled me to read much of Aristophanes in the original Greek. This protected me from 18th literature, so I cannot comment on the relative merits of a comparison with Swift. However, I will happily yield to your view.
Whatever, viva Enrico!
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38 michael // Apr 10, 2010 at 7:29 pm
It’s just what I need, Polo #36; certainly a better read than some muddled, convoluted & pretentious rubbish. You could learn something from it.
BTW, why should Italians read the Tripitaka? I should think that delusory religious texts of any persuasion are not enormously popular reading at the moment in view of the fact that the pope has been outed as a criminal.
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39 StanG // Apr 11, 2010 at 5:03 am
Back to consensus – for two days in a row reds have been battling the state, pushing the security forces to their limits.
Now it’s not a question of whether the government is willing to use force, it’s a question of whether the government can enforce the laws with non-lethal methods if the insurgency continues.
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40 Ralph Kramden // Apr 11, 2010 at 9:10 am
You got your answer StanG. 15 killed and more than 700 injured.
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41 abejero | from the Big Apple to the banks of the Mekong // Apr 14, 2010 at 5:15 pm
[...] least overall it seems armed repressions are in check, with a more solid consensus for non-violence. Both sides seem to have distanced themselves from the weekend’s clashes, with many observers [...]
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