There are ominous signs of another, and inevitably more bloody, crackdown on the red shirts. There are email reports that it may commence today. Political Prisoners in Thailand has a detailed report. Here is a brief extract:
Justifying what might be a bloody operation, the government released information from a “joint intelligence report” that came to the conclusion that the so-called third hand – increasingly identified by PAD and the government as being red shirts – were “armed men were recruited from three groups of people: separatists in the South, mercenaries from neighbouring countries, and paramilitary men trained by active officers allied with the red shirts.” This means that the government is saying it is off the hook for its actions on 10 April. By blaming red shirts, mercenaries and southern separatists, they lay the ground work for retaliatory violence.
This will be the start of the real civil war.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
we woke early this morning and panicked because the internet feed of TV from the protest site had failed
fortunately, we managed to bring it up again and all is well… for now at least
the redshirts are still unarmed and defenceless, sitting peacefully relying on their numbers to deter attacks by the heavily armoured and weaponed soldiers
more redshirts are arriving from the country. there are reports of them being stopped at checkpoints but amazingly they seem to be getting through… must be too many sympathisers in the police and military to seal them out.
its amazing really…
the yellows (pinks, no colors, etc) seem to be funded/aligned with the palace/privy council/military/big business so the police and military provide logistics support and cannot/will not suppress them
the redshirts have the privy council/military/big business against them and have to self-fund but the lower ranks and even some higher ranks support them so the police and military commanders cannot effectively execute arrests and attacks
if the redshirts can maintain their numbers they can continue to resist
but for them to win I think only a mutiny within the army will enable this… in effect a pro-democracy coup will be required to force the elites and their PAD supporters to agree to elections and installation of a democratic government
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
I fear brother Abhisit’s spineless glove-puppet behaviour is creating a measure of notoriety and infamy for him. There is no doubt in my mind that he (perhaps alongside brother Anupong) is being set up as the bad guy.
The true awfulness of Prem and the Palace are being made very apparent as we speak, and it hasn’t gone un-noticed by people out there in Thailand – they are not as stupid today as the amart have tried to keep them. Every day more people wake up from the 64-year propagandised dream to a propagandised reality that is in fact a nightmare.
The advantage of watching from outside the goldfish bowl is that one has a better and more objective perspective. As far as can be seen, the Monarchy is self-destructing as we watch from afar. The fact that they do not see this shows how much they need to be more objective, the inside of the goldfish bowl appears to be chock full of self-importance, contempt for the ‘little’ people and… self-delusion.
Prem is busy writing himself an epitaph saying “A mean-spirited man who waited too long to die”.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
It’s a shame that these sort of things are still going on in this day and age! When will we learn?
Regards, Daniel
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Prem and the Palace are making Thailand a North Korea military State by erecting huge propaganda pictures everywhere, closing down quality websites i.e. Prachatai, eliminating soldiers who support democracy, using PAD mob to advance its political agenda. Today, PAD announces that 7 days from today, they themselves will use force against the Red Shirts.
The main reason Prem and the Palace refuse to dissolve the Parliament now because they intend to further remove soldiers who support democracy from key positions in the military. That’s why they want to wait until after September. Last year, they had already done that but they want to further root it out democratic soldiers completely. The deportation of Hmong to Laos was the example of how Prem and the Palace made sure that General Panlop won’t have any available means.
In order to avoid bloodshed, it’s important to freeze Prem, the Palace and PAD. I do agree with David Brown’s comment (#2) that this requires pro-democracy coup, otherwise huge numbers of the Red Shirts will be killed.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Looking back in history, I’m comparing this event to those of 6 October 1976. The same thing happened.
In 1976, the government formulated groups such as Nawa-Pol (Nawa means 9 and Pol means roughly either Troop, strong, or mass) and Red Gaur group as the anti-students movement. These group was the major force in killing the students in 1976, now they are represent by the Yellow/Pink. After the crack down of 1976, a large part of the students went to hiding and staged a communist insurgent movement. Unfortunately for the student they didn’t have much people and furthermore, the communist ideology got split into two between the Soviet and the Chinese so the movement got weaker and in the end the government agreed to pardon them and they got assimilated back to the society.
However, this time, we are not talking about 50,000 strong students, we are talking about half of the country fighting another half. It will be a full scale civil war and not a pity insurgent.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
“armed men were recruited from three groups of people: separatists in the South, mercenaries from neighbouring countries, and paramilitary men trained by active officers allied with the red shirts.”
Burmese gunmen has been known for very long time as the hired-assassins for the hit jobs in Thailand and they are very cheap compared to the Thai gunmen.
In the 1990s I was told by a Thai army colonel that a Burmese hired-bodyguard would cost not more than 5000 bahts a day while hiring a Thai army sergeant would cost 25,000 bahts a day.
Probably Thaksin is now counting his money and hiring cheaper guns for the action.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
First, the PPT article was quoting a really irresponsible piece of trash from The Nation, pure psych-ops stuff. They are pouring it on: southern separatists, terrorists, mercenaries, blah blah blah.
Anupong does NOT want to retire as a butcher. Prayuth is hell-bent on establishing his creds as a real animal. He lost a pile of his future command structure last week, taken out by pros, probably active duty and not just Sah Daeng (oh, they WISH it was that simple, but its not).
And they expect the masses to run away to the countryside to spend another generation staying “sufficient? Dream on, it’s not going to happen. And the constant refrain of Thaksin money is pure crap: first, nobody risks their lives to this degree for a few hundred baht a day and second, this ignores the reality that the village organizations are becoming self-funded.
If they slaughter, the world won’t have to wait for the King to check out before the long anticipated civil war starts. The patronage mafia wants 100%, not 50% or 95% but 100% of power. And that game is almost at an end. So the next time some punk runs over farmers and their kids in his Mercedes, he better not cry like a bitch for the cops to rescue him. He’ll go down down down, just like the rest of this corrupt state.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Looking back in history, I’m comparing this event to those of 6 October 1976. The same thing happened.
In 1976, the government formulated groups such as Nawa-Pol (Nawa means 9 and Pol means roughly either Troop, strong, or mass) and Red Gaur group as the anti-students movement. These group was the major force in killing the students in 1976, now they are represent by the Yellow/Pink.
Tarrin, looking back in history can be strange. As I began to see the birth of the red shirts in opposition to the yellow shirts, I thought to myself, don’t they look like Red Gaur and village scouts again. Financed by local influential politicians with strongholds in places like Ayutthaya I caught the smell, and then Samak became prime minister and I thought ‘ Ho-ho the old gang is out and about again, ready for a bit of 1976 mayhem.” Déjà vu all over again.
I guess that goes to prove history can be quite personal rather than objective. What do you think?
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
I like your style dr anon.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Just got back from Silom lunch, and there are hundreds of soldiers and police there, as well as massing at checkpoints on Rama IV. Razor wire has been unrolled on the sidewalks, so beware, drunken tourists!
Looks to me like a show of force, backing down the reds from marching on Silom. Maybe the army just wants a small symbolic victory after the disaster of last weekend.
Don’t agree that there’s an imminent crackdown today. But more importantly, I don’t see how any of this is going to resolve itself any other way.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Les Abbey – 9
I’m more than willing to discuss about the Red Gaurs and NawaPol and their roll in shaping what is coming of Thailand today.
Anyway let me say why the Red Gaures and NawaPol are so much different than the Red but rather more similar to the Yellow/Pink. First you are certainly wrong about who initiate the formation of Red Gaurs /NawaPol – they were formed by the ISOC and not politician from Ayudhya as you said (at least you should get your fact check before you posted it, I did)
http://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B8%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%87%E0%B9%81%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%87
http://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B8%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%A5
There is nothing personal about history because what happened is already happened you can not intrepid any other way around except you can analyze the intention of why people made those decision in the past.
What I said was the fact, the NawaPol and Red Gaurs were the anti-student movement (fact) they took part in the student crack down of 6th October (fact), none of them got arrest or charge (fact) one of them became prime minister later on (fact) the communist community was split (fact). A large part of the NawaPol/Red Gaurs were made up of the ultra right-wing of the society, same with the Yellow/Pink (fact)
More on the side note, Samak was elected but Tanin Kraivichien came trough power via a Coup Detat.
As you can see, there’s nothing personal about my statement.
Moreover, the rule of thumb for every historian is, history was only written by whoever win the war. I will wait until you came up with some concrete evidences, since like many Yellow leaning right-wing fanatic here, most of you people fail to even produce something convincing.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/04/19/politics/Top-army-navy-units-readied-for-dispersal-30127373.html :
Elite forces from all three branches of the armed forces and police are being mobilised to carry out operations to remove red-shirt demonstrators from the Rajprasong intersection in Bangkok.
The rules of engagement are modelled on an emergency plan after 2003 when the Thai embassy and businesses run by Thai firms in Phnom Penh were burnt down by a rowdy mob.
Thailand was reportedly ready to go to war with Cambodia, with combat units readied and F-16 fighters put on standby for possible aerial attacks.
On Saturday evening, Army commander General Anupong Paochinda called a meeting of military commandants, the chief of staff and the acting police commander to discuss operational readiness of all units involved.
The meeting agreed that the military would no longer tolerate armed terrorists blending in with red-shirt mobs in Bangkok.
Army units to be used are capable of “special operations”. They include Task Force 90 – a heli-borne infantry assault unit, the 31 Infantry Regiment and red-bereted Army special operations forces. The Navy would dispatch their US-trained SEAL commandos and the Marines Force Recon strike force.
The Air Force will rely on their special operations commandos while the police would dispatch 191 SWAT commandos, anti-terrorism Arintharaj Force and paratroopers.
A joint intelligence report concluded that the armed men were recruited from three groups of people: separatists in the South, mercenaries from neighbouring countries, and paramilitary men trained by active officers allied with the red shirts.
Whatever sources they are from, the prime objective of the coming operations is to deal with the “armed third force”, coupled with red-shirt masses travelling to Bangkok from Monday to Wednesday.
All tall buildings nearby Rajprasong intersection are now manned by security officials.
What remains to be seen is whether these units will accomplish their mission – neutralising the armed terrorists, in line with a recently concluded hard-line determination by the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situation.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
6.10pm, 19th April, Bangkok time. Matichon headline: “บิ๊กจิ๋ว-สมชาย”พยายามขอเฝ้าฯ ทรงหยุดความขัดแย้ง ร้องรัฐรับปากต้องไม่มีคนตายอีก ยุบสภาทันที
[http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1271665627&grpid=00&catid=]
and
[http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1271665627&grpid=00&catid=]
I think this is a very important development, which helps us understand the strategy of Thaksin and the Red Shirts.
Chavalit: … ไม่เคยเห็นว่าพระองค์ท่านไม่สนพระทัยในลูกหลานของพระองค์ท่านเลยแม้แต่นอนนั่นคือความหวังความฝันของพวกเรา เมื่อถามว่าการขอพระกรุณาธิคุณจะอยู่ในรูปแบบการถวายฎีกาหรือไม่ พล.อ.ชวลิต กล่าวว่า เราคิดว่าทุกสิ่งทุกอย่างที่เราพูดวันนี้คงต้องถึงพระเนตร พระกรรณอย่างแน่นอนที่สุด ความเป็นจริงมีความพยายามของพวกเราที่จะไปกราบพระบาทด้วยตัวของพวกเราเองมาโดยตลอด เพียงแต่ว่าได้ทราบว่าพระอาการยังไม่ค่อยดี **** แต่วันนี้ทราบว่าท่านทรงพระสำราญขึ้นแล้วก็อาจจะมีพระมหากรุณาธิคุณโปรดเกล้าโปรดกระหม่อม **** ซึ่งคงจะเป็นโชคอย่างที่สุดของคนไทยของเราและของประเทศชาติด้วย…
very funny.
It seems to me that the central part of Thaksin’s strategy now is to draw the monarchy out into the open and to totally destroy its legitimacy – as the royalists have attempted to destroy that of Thaksin since 2005-2006.
One just has to consider for a while and ask oneself how the half of the country that supports the Red Shirts feels about “the Queen’s Guard” massacring Red Shirts on 10 April, and the Queen turning up at the hospital the next day to comfort her injured soldiers and mourn the loss of one of the key officers involved in the bloody April 2009 operation (which many Reds believed led to a large number of deaths).
So, if, after having been asked by Chavalit and Somchai (Thaksin’s “nominees”), the King DOESN’T step in to prevent more killings, and Abhisit orders “the Queen’s Guard” to go in and commit a massacre of Red Shirts, what will the Red Shirts (and much of the country (and the “international community”) think of the King and Queen, who were asked to step in and prevent Thais from being slaughtered…. but didn’t?
THIS is the way to destroy the monarchy….
You can’t say they were not given a chance to compromise.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
WLH (#11) if you were recently at Silom, you must have seen Thailand’s flag-waving welcoming Thai middle-class (the silent majority?) cheering the military/police. I am guessing those red-colored sunglasses darkened your cross-eyed vision even more.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Aladdin #12 – you’re exactly right.
The Queen has very foolishly placed the whole monarchy in jeopardy.
She thinks this is October 1976 – when she also stupidly pushed Thailand to civil war.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Aladdin: In 1976 it was clear that the palace was happy enough with the blood-letting. They helped set things in train and did plenty to stir up the hatred. And, they were quickly rehabilitated with the help of the “elite”, in a relatively short time. So I think you might be exaggerating a strategy. I think Chavalit is marginal to what the red shirts are doing and, in recent interviews has seemed hardly of this planet. If a call to the king is the best he can come up with, well, it’s sad. And forlorn. I know, it’s a call out and people will see it for what it is, but that happened in 1976 too.
In every case of kingly intervention, it has been on the side of the military and its rightist buddies. He’s doing the same now.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Ralph Kramden (15) – think about it: Thaksin’s “nominees” very publicly request the King to step in and prevent a massacre of the Reds. This headline goes around the country. Suppose the King does nothing, and Abhisit orders the troops in and there is another big killing, most likely much worse than April 10. What does the half of the country that supports the Reds think about the King’s refusal to halt the killing (which is done, ostensibly, to “save the monarchy”)? Obviously, that he supports the slaughter of Reds. What is the headline that will go around the world – and Thailand on Red community radio, internet sites and CDs (no doubt with help from Thaksin’s media team): “King Refuses Request to Prevent Killing of Reds”.
Game Over Thai Monarchy.
Re. Chavalit, anyone who can become Commander of the Armed Forces, end a communist insurgency, set up a political party and become PM in the snake pit of Thai politics I would think at the very least has a superior understanding of political strategy. I agree that when interviewed he rarely seems to make much sense, but it’s not his public speaking skills that are relevant here.
Third, I don’t think the comparison with 1976 works. In 1976 there was no mass politics. There was domestic – and international – support for a crackdown on “the communists”. The monarchy was on the “right” side – ie. it had enough domestic political support for its alliance with the far right. So it didn’t matter if it got its hands dirty. It would not damage the monarchy too greatly.
Today we are in an era of mass politics where domestic developments in Thailand (eg. liberalization of the economy, more ways of circumventing the state-controlled media, growing strength of political liberalism, etc.) are highly unfavourable for the monarchy and the existing political regime. The monarchy also now faces an increasingly hostile international media, which is likely to get worse. No doubt more of the monarchy’s skeletons will be paraded before the world in the coming weeks and months. In contrast with 1976 the King’s support for a reactionary massacre this time could be fatal.
Given the royalists’ attempts to destroy Thaksin: the car-bomb assassination attempts, the character assassination in the media, the coup, the dissolution of two of his political parties, the drafting and passing of a new Constitution rigged in the royalists’ favour, the prison sentence, the freezing and seizure of his assets, and now the killings of his Red Shirt supporters… one would think there is more than enough reason for Thaksin and his supporters to go after the monarchy.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
To use a common piece of slang: It ain’t over until the Fat Lady Sings.
Funnily enough, a favoured Karaoke spot for nostalgic old ladies is the top floor of the Dusit Thani Hotel. But not this week, I suspect.
RalphK: I guess Chavalit is going through the motions to underline the fact that person is question has mislaid mojo along with possibly some higher cognitive functions and simply cannot this time come out and pour oil on troubled waters. In which case, see para 1. Which rather does concentrate the mind.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
#19
Perhaps then it is time for the CP to grow up and do something positive for a change. …… Some hope!
One has zero faith in Thai politicians. Not that they are real politicians anyway. Just a bunch of corrupt warmongering mafia scum on both sides of the succession divide. I can’t even begin to figure what it is some of you NMites see in any of them. The idea that they are about to usher in some new era is pure BS. All evidence points to the contrary. These people do not have the necessary skills to fix this country’s problems, since that have only ever learned how to destroy that which doesn’t immediately serve their selfish interests. both sides have nothing to offer except more non-productive conflict.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
FredKorat,
your diatribe about politicians sounds like a typical excuse for military rule
are you happy with the unaccountable military being in charge?
are you aware that the democratic process where the people choose the government and the government is accountable to them in elections at regular intervals requires that all institutions in society are under control of the government.
because the government is accountable to the people at election time it can rightly claim the authority of the people and demand that institutions and agencies like the military be under their control. a democracy demands that the military and other public servants cannot engage in business. in particular the military must not engage in any activity that might conflict with its duty to defend the country from external threats.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Further to (14) : You can see that the request by Chavalit and Somchai for an audience with the King to ask that he use his authority to stop the violence has touched a raw nerve, with the Democrat and royalist “big guns” like Anand coming out to criticize the move:
“ชวน-สนั่น”ฉะ”บิ๊กจิ๋ว-สมชาย”ทำตัวไม่เหมาะสม ดึง”ในหลวง”ลงมา ให้พรรคพวกหยุดจาบจ้วงสถาบันก่อน
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1271734401&grpid=no&catid=01
and
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1271855835&grpid=00&catid=
The Democrats often refer to the “mediating” role of the King in May 1992, who, according to the mythology that has been built up since then, put an end to the killing by calling on Suchinda and Chamlong to end their conflict.
It seems that for the Democrats it is OK for the King to come out and use his “moral authority” AFTER a big killing (three days after, actually), but not BEFORE another likely round of killing (likely, since the CRES has declared that the military will be using live rounds).
Should the King refuse to intervene and the military proceeds with a bloody crackdown, after everything that has happened over the last four years, one would have to wonder why the half of the country that supports the Reds or pro-Thaksin parties would see any reason for the Thai monarchy to continue to exist.
(That may be why the crackdown has not yet come, and why the Royal Household Bureau was a little more circumspect in its reaction to Chavalit and Somchai’s request).
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Tarrin – 12
1/ There is nothing personal about history because what happened is already happened you can not intrepid any other way …
2/ Moreover, the rule of thumb for every historian is, history was only written by whoever win the war.
Tarrin, do you think there is conflict between these two statements of yours?
Anyway let me say why the Red Gaures and NawaPol are so much different than the Red but rather more similar to the Yellow/Pink. First you are certainly wrong about who initiate the formation of Red Gaurs /NawaPol – they were formed by the ISOC and not politician from Ayudhya as you said …
Don’t you think there was involvement of local provincial politicians in supplying manpower for the Red Gaur and village scouts? Wasn’t it true that Ayudhya supplied many of the people who carried out the 1976 massacre?
Regarding the makeup of the Red Gaur and village scouts wouldn’t you accept that it was mainly rural like the UDD as opposed to the PAD’s mainly Bangkok middle-class membership.
I do think you should remove your tinted glasses every now and then and let some daylight in.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Tarrin, do you think there is conflict between these two statements of yours?
What I said about the “history is not personal” is what actually happened aka, Hitler start would war (of cause there’s no other interpretation)
However, about the winner write history going to be about interpretation of history aka, Hitler start the war because he is evil (which is root is not the case at all) which the winner (the Allies) seems to paint Hitler that way after the holocaust.
Sorry if I made it sound confusing.
Don’t you think there was involvement of local provincial politicians in supplying manpower for the Red Gaur and village scouts? Wasn’t it true that Ayudhya supplied many of the people who carried out the 1976 massacre?
No, the Red Gaurs was made up of largely the tech collage’s students (who irony enough the same group and took part in the 1973 protest) the village scout actually has more of the middle-upper class joining rather than the actual villager themselves with the mix of ex-police and ex-military men. Even if there were involvement from politician, then its a very minor one, the real initiative was definitely came from ISOP
Regarding the makeup of the Red Gaur and village scouts wouldn’t you accept that it was mainly rural like the UDD as opposed to the PAD’s mainly Bangkok middle-class membership.
Like I said earlier, it was initialed by ISOP and the rural of Thailand was very political inactive then.
I do think you should remove your tinted glasses every now and then and let some daylight in.
Well, actually I took off the glasses that’s why I stand on his side of the fence because I was on your side of the fence. Are you ready to take off yours?
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
[Vichai - your increasingly offensive comments are not welcome on New Mandala. You can make them on your own blog. Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly]
Quality comment or not?
2 
0
Tarrin – 24
Wasn’t it Handley’s book that mentions the amount of Red Gaur or village scouts from Ayudhya and outside of Bangkok? I don’t have it to hand right now.
So are you saying that ISOP worked totally independent of the local provincial politicians in recruiting members?
Are we allowed to mention Samak in this argument or was he another embarrassment to the cause like Arisman is today?
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Revealing picture from Prachatai webboard: military wearing blue neckerchiefs – symbol of the Queen – during the operation against the Reds at Pathumthani yesterday: http://www.prachataiwebboard.com/webboard/id/41283
I’m not sure if there are any other sources that can confirm that the soldiers in some units are wearing this symbol of the Queen.
If the situation does get bloody and such pictures are circulated in the Red heartlands – and internationally – one would have to wonder about the Queen’s future in Thailand.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
I suggest exile in Sweden. Land of the Smorgasbord.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0