UCL International Public Affairs Society
Panel Discussion: Understanding Thailand’s Political Turmoil
Speakers:
- Dr. Tim Forsyth, Development Studies Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science
- Associate Professor Giles Ji Ungpakorn, exiled Thai Scholar and Political Activist
- Dr. Lee Jones, Department of Politics, Queen Mary, University of London
Moderator: Kanokrat Lertchoosakul, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
Time: Thursday 27 May 2010, Time: 5.00-7.00pm
Venue: Council Room, School of Public Policy, University College London, The Rubin Building, 29/30 Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9QU
Thailand has captured international media attention since September 2006 after the military coup d’état deposed a democratically elected government of PM Thaksin Shinnawatra. The situation in this second largest economy in Southeast Asia hit the headlines again after a demonstration beginning in March by the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), also known as the “Red Shirts”. Their demand is for the military-backed Democrat Party to dissolve the parliament and call for a fresh election.
Despite a call from Ban Ki-Moon, the UN Secretary General, for the two sides to restrain and return to the negotiation table, the government response has been a bloody crackdown. Since 10 April, the government’s tactics has claimed the lives of at least 70 protesters including journalists, health workers, 5 soldiers, and thousands of people injured. On 19 May 2010, the UDD protesters called off their demonstration to prevent the further loss of life, while large numbers of regular protesters have spread around Thailand setting fire to provincial government halls, banks, and government related facilities as revenge for the large amount of deaths on the protesters’ sides. The government has declared a state of emergency and curfew in 24 out of 76 provinces in the country and has imposed a curfew for the evening.
Please join us in a panel discussion with experts on Thai politics to find out what the future will be for this country, dubbed by tourists as the “Land of Smiles”. What will be the way out? What are the roles of the political elites in this conflict? Is it because of the class divide? And what is the international dimension to the situation in Thailand?
Video footage of the events will be shown prior to the discussion.
All are Welcome!
Seats are limited. Entry is on a first come first serve basis.
For more information, please contact ipas.spp@gmail.com
I hope they are going to discuss the possibility – still somewhat remote, but now certainly an increased possibility – that Isaarn and Lanna are starting to break away from “Thailand”, just as Pattani is doing, though there’s no Isaarn or Lanna desire to secede from Siam.
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Thousands of pictures showing soldiers killing unarmed Red Shirts but still some folk cannot see the truths. Take
Gordon Duguid, US GOvt Department Spokesman statement yesterday at a Press Briefing in Washington DC:
QUOTE “We are encouraged by the actions of the Red Shirt leaders who have surrendered to law enforcement agencies and support their call to supporters to return home peacefully. However, we are deeply concerned that Red Shirt supporters have engaged in arson targeting the electricity infrastructure and media outlets and have attacked individual journalists. We condemn such behavior and call on UDD leaders and affiliated opposition politicians to urge their supporters to stop such acts. We remain very concerned about the situation in Thailand and we will continue to monitor those events closely.”UNQUOTE
It is deplorable. These are not legitimate “Law enforcement agencies”. How can we even assume Red Shirts killed anyone as we now know there were contests between factions in the army. Saedaeng knew too much and was killed for this. So one journalist gets shot from an unknown entity and the media all of sudden shout moral outrage and blame the Reds! This was the issue: It was never a level playing field so how can both share the same responsibilities? It is like the elephant and mouse (sheer numbers are not enough against a well armed fascist state)
But note: Wallons in Belgium refuse to sell arms to the illegitimate Thai state!
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Brilliant Jim Taylor – re. Wallons in Belgium.
Have you got a reference, footnote, anything like that for this ?
Kasit publicly claimed at the FCCT that he supported the Belgium model for Thailand.
Would be good to see how he responds to
to what you say about Wallons, if you can cite details.
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I would like to ask three questions.
1. Military: วงศ์เทวัญ บูรพาพยััคฆ์
Wongtawan and Burapapayak factions are the current military establishment in power. The main function of these two units is to be the Queen’s body guards.The Queen directly commands these two units. They carried out the order against the Red Shirts.
In this new context where the Thai military is under the direct command of the Queen, can we still consider the Thai military as an powerful independent entity like in the past?
2. Monarch Asset: ทรัพย์สินส่วนของกษัตริย์
The burned down Central World building is the property of the King’s Assets which is rented to the Central Company. The monarchy has been operating a profitable businesses in the prime location of Bangkok. Why don’t the monarchy pay property tax and income tax from the profits like everyone else?
“เวิลด์เทรดเซ็นเตอร์” เริ่มก่อสร้างเมื่อ พ.ศ. 2525 และเปิดดำเนินการเมื่อ พ.ศ. 2532 ประกอบด้วยห้างสรรพสินค้าเซ็น และ อิเซตัน โดยบริษัท วังเพชรบูรณ์ ต่อมาบริษัท วังเพชรบูรณ์ ประสบปัญหาทางการเงิน ไม่สามารถก่อสร้างโรงแรมและอาคารสำนักงานให้เสร็จได้ สำนักงานทรัพย์สินส่วนพระมหากษัตริย์จึงเปิดโอกาสให้บริษัทอื่นเข้ามาประมูล เป็นผู้บริหารศูนย์การค้าแทน
ปัจจุบันโครงการนี้บริหารงานโดย บริษัท เซ็นทรัลพัฒนา
3. The Existing Political Structure: Patron-Client Power Structure
The sniper that took Seh Daeng’s life was hidden inside the high-rise of the Dusit Thani Hotel building. It is a public knowledge that the owner of Dusit Thani Hotel, Lady Chanat Piyaoui, is one of the Queen’s close confidant.
กลุ่มดุสิตธานีของท่านผู้หญิงชนัตถ์ ปิยะอุย เจ้าของโรงแรมดุสิตธานี
My main issue is the Queen is the main player yet she has no formal political title to take any responsibility. Furthermore, the lese majeste law prohibits and punishes the discussion of the key player. Aphisit is only the de jure while the Queen is the de facto power behind the scene.
It would be a waste of time to discuss about Aphisit because he has never been a decision maker.
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Chris B. for Walloons, check: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_yyEg-MlpKVo/S_VtcDUuMPI/AAAAAAAAk6U/sYC368Z4F8E/s1600/Untitled.jpg
(hopefully it is fully accesible!
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A very interesting recent debate between Giles Ungpakorn and Philip Cunningham on a US TV station. Shows there is more than one opinion on the left among the academics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-PPpGScujQ
Really is worth watching, but probably will not change anyone’s personal opinions. Funny bit is where Giles accuses Cunningham of bandying around the term ‘fascist’ without understanding the meaning of the word and then within a minute is using it himself. I guess we are all guilty of that
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-Suzi Wong
Interesting and well informed comments you make.
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Andrew or Nich
The above link to the Ungpakorn/Cunningham debate covers the basic disagreements among so many over the left’s position on the red shirts it’s probably worth putting the link as a separate post. Up to you of course.
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Les#6: seems to me Philip Cunningham is living in abstract world where reality does not exist: he should open his eyes and listen to the people. Maybe he is paid by the Yellow Shirts/amaat, the real fascists in Thailand. These folk would love to listen to his prolific anti-Thaksin propaganda speak. I was also at Chula and taught at Political Science Faculty with Ji. I was influenced at the turn of the last century with the massive amount of Thaksin fiction in the media like many intellectuals/academics -but then I went out to the countryside and listened to people. The Red Shirts are a broad based social movement and it is based on their losses that are as much cultural, political and economic; along with double standards and injustices in deposing more than once since 2007 a govt that they elected. What school did Cunningham go to??
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Jim Taylor – thanks very much for that lead :
only partly accessible – even in Oz !!!
Suzie Wong – thanks for confirming what is an open secret.
Was it Yellow Shirt agent provocateurs who torched Big C ?
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I really want to listen to this talk, I hope it will be posted on youtube.
I agrees with the point Ungpakorn is making. From his criticism of the monarchy to his support of the Red Shirt, Ungpakorn supports the Red Shirt which is the movement for the people which in its nature doesn’t lie with the elite, ‘up-there’, agenda.
Ungpakorn has always been an activist. Recently, he make it clearer that his is a Red Shirt supporter to the point that I feel he is loosing his legitimacy as a scholar. His talk at SOAS, University of London was a great talk really discussing the situation. But if you listen to his debate with Cunningham, Ungpakorn is a Red Shirt supporter whole heartedly speaking with an agenda to support the red shirt. With that agenda, he is not an academic in that discussion.
I am not saying Ungpakorn should take what position. Considering his background, experience and world view, it almost only make sense that he is a Red Shirt activist than just a Thai political scholar.
On an entirely separated point, both Cunningham and Ungpakorn are missing a giant elephant in their debate.
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Jim Taylor – 9
I guess hoping to open minds to opposing views was a bit of a long shot. Funny you teaching at Chula as you never struck me as an educated man reading through your comments. Is that purposely talking rougher as in the “mokney” accents in London? Are you a Trotskyist like Giles by the way just so I know where you are coming from?
What school did Cunningham go to? I have no idea as I only heard his name today. What school did you go to Jim? Why we are at it, I’m interested in what school Giles went to. His biography seems to start with university. Makes me wonder if he is a public school boy. Surely not Eton like Abhisit. Do you know Jim?
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Chris Beale, interesting that you see Suzie Wong’s comments as ‘confirming’ these ‘open secrets’. By what authorty do you feel that someone who names themself after a brothel in Soi Cowboy has to justify those claims. Was s/he in the Dusit Thani with Seh Daeng’s assasin, is s/he part of HM’s retinue to know that HM is the key player?
I’m not saying what Suzie Wong is neccessarily wrong, just that someone voicing an opinion does not alway constitute ‘confirmation’.
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MangoBoy #13 :
it is obvious from the accurate information Suzie Wong has placed on this post over a very long period that she is not a Soi Cowboy lady.
She is definitely somebody with very good, very highly placed sources of information.
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Just to repeat the earlier requests for a video if it’s at all possible. It would be enormously appreciated by many, I’m sure.
And re Suzie Wong: my first thought was the book and film. Strange that anyone would think (or, indeed, even know) of a bar on Soi Cowboy.
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Suzie once quoted Notthenation and it took a dozen posts by NM regulars for someone never heard of before to eventually spot it.
God knows where “she” gets the rest of her info.
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/02/20/army-defiance/#comment-681069
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MangoBoy #13 :
Re:
“Was s/he in the Dusit Thani with Seh Daeng’s assasin, is s/he part of HM’s retinue to know that HM is the key player?
I’m not saying what Suzie Wong is neccessarily wrong”
Thanks for these clues – Jim Taylor, Andrew Walker take note.
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Suzie Wong, thank you for your input concerning the Thai military and the Palace, particularly the Queen. I, for one, encourage you to continue exploring and explaining the behind-the-scenes linkages which too often tend to be either ignored or avoided by many of us New Mandala posters. I also appreciate the questions you have posed and look forward to reading the comments of our peers regarding the realm of the shadows. In my humble opinion there has been too much focus on the obvious (King Bhumipol, Abhisit, Suthep, Anupong, Prayuth, Thaksin, etc.) and not enough on the unseen (sounds like a marketing slogan, doesn’t it?). If we truly seek to comprehend fully Thailand’s ongoing political crisis then we must pay closer attention to the inner workings of the military establishment, the Privy Council and the Palace (Queen Sirikit especially). I no longer subscribe to the concocted and royally-sponsored PAD accusations that Thaksin is the root of all evil in the Land of Smiles mainly because I have been a willing and PAID disseminator of anti-Thaksin propaganda. The Thai State is without a doubt a kleptocracy. But we need to turn our attention and point our fingers in the right direction, anonymously of course.
I would like to declare that the Thai armed forces are undergoing a major stress test at the moment. The Royal Thai Army is showing signs of strain and it is fissuring to such an extent that the loyalty of certain officers is “suspect” and deemed a “threat”; this is especially evident within the 2nd and the 3rd regional commands. A reshuffle could happen earlier than anticipated. Palace interference in the promotion of “favourites” has led to some officers openly to question the “fairness” of the system or have not carried out their orders to the full. Instead, excuses are given such as Red Shirt protesters blocking the railroad, not enough trucks to transport the troops, too many soldiers on furlough, do not have the right equipment, etc. Anupong and Prayuth have their work cut out for them. Also keep in mind that the military units that were involved in and responsible for the recent crackdown on the Red Shirts in Bangkok have conducted covert “sweeps” of mid-ranking Red Shirt community leaders and activists across the city. However, neither the Thai nor the foreign media will touch this story for the simple reason that there are “no” witnesses, “evidence” is lacking, and who cares about the fate of “terrorists” to begin with.
By the way, back in 2007 there was an intriguing article entitled “How Thailand’s Royals Manage to Own All the Good Stuff” that caused quite a stir amongst the military government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. I argue that it needs to be reread and revised.
And before I forget, the reason why the Palace does not shell out its share of taxes is because the Bureau of Crown Property is exempt from contributing a portion of its well-deserved largesse to the national treasury. Thaksin was a fool who believed that he could enjoy the same courtesy and look what happened to him. Still, let’s not ignore the “facts” that he WAS an abuser of State power, a violator of human rights, a corrupt politician, a manipulator of the rural and urban poor, and a closet republican. Dio mio, our propaganda campaign really worked, didn’t it?
Do not forget – one chapter has concluded, another one has just begun.
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Chris Beale/Jim Taylor: Jim’s link about the Wallons was just a jpg of part of the article. I found the article here:
http://www.lesoir.be/actualite/belgique/2010-05-18/suspension-des-ventes-d-armes-wallonnes-vers-la-thailande-770822.php
It’s in French.
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re Chris Beale comment #17
I don’t suggest that Suzie Wong is wrong precisely because I, like other armchair commentators, have absolutely no idea what constitutes the truth in all this murk. And that is exactly my point in critiquing your faith in his/her assertions.
For all his/her ‘accurate information’ (Not the Nation post included), without some hard evidence it seems a little previous to equate conjecture with confirmation. If either s/he or you can provide proof that the sniper who took out Seh Daeng was in the Dusit Thani, and there at the bequest of its proprietor and then by association at the bequest of a significant other then I’ll happily shut up.
I would also add that suggesting to others that my critique of your faith in Suzie Wong’s comments to be ‘clues’ may also be remiss.
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Please do not only videotape this discussion but also add Thai subtitles. I get a lot of requests from thai friends who want to see any kind of information. They are hungry for truth.
Please give something to feed them.
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MangoBoy #21 – no please don’t shut up : you’re providing all the clues we need.
Eg. :
For all his/her ‘accurate information’ (Not the Nation post included), without some hard evidence it seems a little previous to equate conjecture with confirmation. If either s/he or you can provide proof that the sniper who took out Seh Daeng was in the Dusit Thani, and there at the bequest of its proprietor and then by association at the bequest of a significant other then I’ll happily shut up
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Jim Taylor, for someone who taught (what?) at Chula’s Political Science Faculty, your argumentation is weak and logic flawed. Even if there were “thousands” of pictures of soldiers targeting what you call civilians, what does this prove? It does not prove that thousands of innocents were shot. Pictures don’t actually prove anything. If anything, photos deceive. My biggest problem with righteous photojournalists, of which are many in Bangkok. They just don’t show the relevant context. How can you photograph the intangible power structures that factor in this conflict? I digress …
Your logic is flawed in quoting the US Govt in saying “we are deeply concerned that Red Shirt supporters have engaged in arson targeting the electricity infrastructure and media outlets and have attacked individual journalists,” as if that makes any comment on the notion that soldiers shot at unarmed, innocent civilians. It doesn’t touch upon any accusation aimed at the military, but instead it focuses on the facts that Red Shirts went on a rampage. Does pointing that out say anything about the behaviour of soldiers? No, it does not.
You say, “How can we even assume Red Shirts killed anyone as we now know there were contests between factions in the army[?]” Here you deploy no argument again. One can never assume anything about such a complex conflict, which is why we need to deal in facts, not suggestive rhetoric masquerading as argument. You suggest that because it is possible that the military has rival factions that they must have been responsible for killing each other, not the Reds? What planet are you on?
You also say, “It was never a level playing field so how can both share the same responsibilities?” Not having “equal numbers” does not suddenly make a group innocent. This is pathetic logic, not just flawed. You have a problem with the “fascist” state of Thailand and can’t seem to see how this is not a state-vs-the-people conflict in the way you emotionally portray it to be. The Thaksin that the Reds so love – and you seeming to too – has no interest in their genuine fate. He used them as pawns for his own power and fortune. If you cannot see that – from being blinded by “talking to the people” – then how sad for you.
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Thanks to Suzy Wong for her excellent comments which are correct and confirmed by sources which cannot be disclosed for evident security reasons. I would like to add, that it is quite clear that several army units are opposed to shoot on Thai people and information has leaked out already mote than one week ago that the queen has given orders “to eradicate all reds”, but, it’s the king’s and the queen’s policy to “leave no fingerprints”.
I would like to add some more information about this unjustifiable way to treat people’s legitimate request for democracy. The first bloody incident took place on April 10 where apparently over 50 soldiers died and 200 were hurt by “friendly fire” i.e. military opposed to other fractions over this way to put an end to the peaceful demonstrations. It also appeared that the army engages mercenary’s (Karen, Cambodians, 2000 Bath a day plus 2000 Bath per head-shot) and uses also forces from the south which don’t speak or understand neither northern language nor eastern dialects and therefore are somehow immunized to the red’s explanations and also have no “red wives” at home. It’s also one of the reasons why the police forces have not been utilized despite the fact that they would have been the most appropriate force to break up the demonstrations which were carried out at certain periods by over 100’000 clearly unarmed people. You cannot qualify slings, firecrackers and homemade “rockets” as arms, material frequently used in European football matches and never gave any government the idea to bring in the army). It’s evident that the main responsible for killing people are the king’s and the queen’s guards. It seems that at one point the Navy was also asked to step in, but they refused because they didn’t want to be implicated in this shitty operation.
The buildings burnt in Bangkok belong mostly to the King/Queen. Besides that, it could be that some “owners” took the occasion to light up their property as the government has installed a special insurance to largely compensate the losses of the poor owners who also don’t pay property taxes.
To my opinion that’s what will go on in the near future: As it seems evident that now Thailand is again under an Army-Government and as the “soft” red leaders have rendered, the hardliners have gone underground and are preparing armed actions. You certainly will soon see bombings similar to the ones in the south (not as amateurish as the bomb placed by the army itself in Bangkok soon after Thaksin’s “departure”). The irresponsible generals and the puppet PM are best advised by continue to hide in army camps. The red populations have amassed so much frustration that there is no real way back and they now will only come the rest when the monarchy and all its lackeys and the corrupt army chiefs have been pushed aside, brought to justice or even “cleaned up” by an action similar to the one of Jerry Rawlings in Ghana in 1981.
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I can’t believe it, 47 thumbs up for Suzie Wong. Hilarious.
Guess where one of the thumbs down came from.
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Chirs Beale #23
Willfully or not (and I suspect the former) you are entirely missing my point.
It was my understanding that this forum was for academic discussion of issues in mainland Southeast Asia.
My only point is that it is entirely un-academic to suggest conjecture equals confirmation.
That’s it.
You are guilty of that wholly amateurish mistake three times already in this forum alone. (#10, #17 and #23)
Interestingly, in #3 you show that you are capable of holding unsupported assertions to account by asking Jim Taylor to provide a source for his comment on the Wallons. And I applaud you for your integrity here … I just think that you would have made yourself look less amateurish had you done the same for Suzie Wong.
Here, Chris Beale, let me save you the trouble: Suzie Wong, it would be a positive contribution to this debate, and would help us all move beyond hearsay, innuendo, and conjecture if you were able to provide some clear evidence to support your claim about who is the de facto power in Thailand.
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Mangoboy:
I am afraid no one can provide you with a clear evidence to support any claim that so-and-so is the defacto power in Thailand and that is a F.A.C.T.
There are a multitude of reasons why this should be the case, and top of the list IMO is the Les Majeste law. Any real in-depth critique of political governance in Thailand can be twisted in some way to trigger a les Majeste charge from an unhappy rival or enemy. Hence, most publicly available media are very carefully worded to the point of vagueness and can be interpretable many which ways.
Second, there are many factions and families whose power are interconnected in very simple yet complicated ways (I really no words to describe this for now, I am sorry) but who all share the same vision of ‘rotating power and wealth’ at the top of the foodchain. All have skeletons in their closets to use against one another and therefore end up protecting each other. All understood the your-turn-today-my-turn-tomorrow unwritten rules. All of them adhere to the enemies today friends tomorrow rule if it helps them retains power.
Like you, I find relying on heresy frustrating, but unfortunately conjectures from a series of events are all we have at the moment. Until the LM is lifted and people are able to talk freely and write freely that is.
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“conjectures from a series of events are all we have at the moment”
This moment has lasted for years already and some people have seriously taken those conjectures for reality and would defend them to the last hyperbole.
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Thank you Nuomi.
Your comment is very thoughtful and helpful.
I recognise the extreme limits that LM puts on frank discussion of the situation in Thailand. Which in part is why I find it frustrating that people who should know better seek to ascribe fact to gossip. And in honesty chris beale’s poorly chosen words are next to insignificant by comparison to some of the propaganda doing the rounds. Though it was fun crossing swords with him.
I take your point about linking events and conjecture loosely together to arrive at some basic cognitive collage about what has happened and why.
With that in mind, people like chris beale ought to keep their ears to the ground for the latest round of hearsay as to SD’s role in all of this, take it into consideration with what has been said in this forum (without the benefit of a verifiable source, just as chris has done above) , then decide how quickly they want to confirm it as fact.
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Jim Taylor. Does that mean that the Walloon government is allowing FN Herstal to sell arms to Thaksin instead?
Personally, I would recommend he stick to AK47s, M79 grenade launchers and bon fai rockets. FN makes some nice modern weaponry these days but revolutionaries are better off with the more basic type of weapons that are easy to use and maintain. An AK47 can be buried in the mud for months and still fire OK when dug up. It is a bit heavier than an M16 but also less temperamental and the folding stock version used by the red guards, as displayed by CRES, is ideal for concealment. M79 grenade launchers are also easy to maintain and use and a serviceable version can be knocked up in a vocational college workshop.
Didn’t notice the Thai army using any FN weapons in the crackdown, so I don’t suppose the suspension of contracts will greatly affect their riot control effectiveness.
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MangoBoy :
Suzie Wong wrote – “It is a public knowledge that the owner of Dusit Thani Hotel, Lady Chanat Piyaoui, is one of the Queen’s close confidant.” Do you deny this ?
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I just wonder if anyone knows more in details about the late Colonel Narongdet Nanthapotidet, the former Commander of the Royal Queen Tiger Force. He was also the Queen’s personal body guard. He was basically the person who built the “Tiger Force” for her, independent of her husband.
I ask because today (24th May 2010) Aphisit visits the late Colonel Narongdet’s half-brother Major Kraingsak Nantapotidet, Commander of the 2nd Infantry Division for the king.
เวลา 16.00 น. นายอภิสิทธิ์ เดินทางมาที่โรงพยาบาลพระมงกุฏ เพื่อเยี่ยมทหารที่ได้รับบาดเจ็บจากปฏิบัติการขอคืนพื้นที่จากบริเวณสี่แยก คอกวัว คือพล.ต.วลิต โรจนภักดี ผู้บัญชาการกองพลทหารราบที่ 2 รักษาพระองค์ และพ.ท.เกรียงศักดิ์ นันทโพธิ์เดช ผู้บังคับการทหารราบที่ 2 กรมทหารราบที่ 21 รักษาพระองค์
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Portman -30
A unite that involve in the 19th May assault was using a gun from FN, I saw a FAL in some of the pictures taken during that day.
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