Seasoned Burma-watcher Andrew Selth has, once again, weighed into the debate about whether there is a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) program in Burma. His article over at the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter has all of the details. I recommend it to anyone hoping to get their head around the issues.
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The Burmese government lacks the technological wherewithal to construct nuclear weapons. Same with ballistic missiles.
At one time I believed that Burma was serious about constructing or acquiring WMD’s, but my thinking on it has now evolved due to several credible articles I’ve read on the subject.
Unless some rogue state provides a nuke and delivery system to the SPDC, the generals are just blowing smoke.
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Burmese generals definitely have had nuclear ambitions and started a program long ago since Ne Win’s time. Then CRO (Central Research Organization) now called Ministry of Technology and Research always has had a small Russian research reactor operating in Rangoon.
CRO is always headed by a trusted MIS colonel and since the 1988 coup the program has been expanded many thousand folds. The first incursion of US fleet into Burmese water during the 8-8-88 uprising and the second incursion just after Cyclone Nargis definitely had inflamed the generals’ paranoia more.
Nearly everyone in Burma knows the existence of the nuclear battalion and the hundreds of young Burmese DSA graduates sent to Moscow to study the nuclear and missile technology.
Few years back there were several incidents involving a few of those Russia returnees who added their Russian nuclear diplomas and their battalion name in their newspapers’ marriage notices as it was a common practice in Burma to proudly announce the bride and groom’s academic degrees and their work places.
But it reveals the open secret and now all the DSA trained officers are strictly prohibited from mentioning their diplomas and their serving battalions in any public notices.
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This is the link to the DVB’s Expert Analysis paper on the secret Burmese Nuclear Weapon facilities.
http://www.dvb.no/burmas-nuclear-ambitions/burmas-nuclear-ambitions-nuclear/expert-analysis/9297
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I find this only just ever so slightly more frightening than the thought of Thailand building a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes.
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Nuclear weapons? In Burma? You got to be joking. This sounds and smells worse than the WMD in Iraq!
After years of occupancy, the US and others have yet to find any WMD in Iraq. Think about that. I guess if the lie works, then why not repeat it.
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Nuclear Ambitions?
Well, honestly, which military in the world won’t have that?
Attempts and intents?
Well, if ambitions exist, intent exist, and therefore attempts exist.
But actual capability and implementation?
Nah, neither the technology or equipment
As for other chemical based WMDs, well, I have a feeling information on how to create a good number of those are freely available online coming out of the various countries such as America. I find this the scariest – the simplest ones tend to be the most used because it is easy and possible.
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The idea that the Burmese military could even remotely pose a proliferation threat is pretty ridiculous. They can’t even keep the lights on in Naypyitaw.
And I agree with N. above – relying on ‘defectors’ was bad enough in Iraq, in Burma it’s silly I no single government, even the US, has come out to give any credence to these claims.
Don’t get me wrong – there’s a lot of nastiness in Burma and nasty people in the army, but this nuclear story has two problems (beyond the obvious lack of real evidence):
(1) its conjured up and being put forward by people who’s dream is to invite US/Western intervention (a la Iraq), and at the very least scupper attempts to engage the regime.
(2) it plays directly into the hands of hardliners in the regime who are trying to convince the rest that they may be paranoid, but they really do have enemies. I’m sure there are people in the regime who love this attention because it basically detracts from the real issues (like bad economic governance), they at least have the option of pulling off a Libya, with no more democratic questions asked.
Who loses out from peddling half-baked stories? The Burmese people (again).
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On 9 October 1983 three North Korean Commandos placed three large bombs inside the ceiling of Martyr Mausoleum in Rangoon and detonated over the visiting presidential delegation from South Korea. The explosion killed 21 and wounded 46.
Among the dead were the South Korean foreign minister, the economic planning minister, the deputy prime minister, and the minister for commerce and industry. Then president Chun Doo Wan narrowly escaped the carnage just because his motorcade was a few minutes late.
Burma immediately declared North Korea an enemy state and kicked every North Koreans out of the country and hanged the captured commandos except one who is still in Insein Jail serving his life sentence.
Almost thirty years later the generals abruptly resumed the diplomatic relation and started secret arms dealings with North Korea just out of the desperation to get hold of Nuclear and Missile Technology.
There is a pile of overwhelming evidence including the advanced machinery for the production of nuclear and missile equipment and hundreds of Russia-trained scientists and engineers from DSTA (Defense Service Technology Academy) like the defector major Sai Thein Win.
Civilized world will continue to ignore the real threat of allowing the nuclear weapon in the nasty hands of Burmese generals at our own peril!
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Hla Oo says:
“Almost thirty years later the generals abruptly resumed the diplomatic relation and started secret arms dealings with North Korea…..”
Uh – if it’s ‘secret’ – how do you know?
If there’s one thing the DVB documentary did is it conclusively debunked the earlier story by Desmond Ball that the Burmese at Myaing had a ‘secret’ Russian nuclear reactor or that the N Koreans were involved there in any way. Seems there’s only a machine parts ‘factory’ with no Koreans in sight.
The people who propagate this stuff (beyond whatever cold facts there may be) seem not to realize that they are playing right into the hands of Than Shwe.
Whats better leverage than having nuclear weapons? Seeming like you might be getting nuclear weapons.
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Here is a recent article about the Burmese major who provided most of the information on Burma’s nuclear quest.
http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3057:nuclear-defectors-hometown-swarmed-with-junta-agents&catid=86:war&Itemid=284
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