There are now intense rumours that Najib will call for a snap general election soon. Malaysia’s next general election (the 13th) must be held, latest by 2013.
Reuters has the following story:
“…Malaysia’s reluctance to upset its majority Malay population has led to reversal of government decisions and reform pullbacks that are fuelling talk Prime Minister Najib Razak may be readying for a snap election…” (Read here)
Rumours had already been circulating since the beginning of the year, that Najib would call for a snap election mainly due to the rise in support for Malay ethnocracy (via PERKASA: read here) undermining his own position in UMNO while his administration’s weak performance (e.g. policy flip-flops, inability to address long-standing issues such as corruption, police brutality, weak economic fundamentals, etc: read here) has made him unpopular with middle Malaysia.
In fact, as early as March, Reuters had already suggested that Najib would call a snap poll:
“…Malaysia’s recent pullback on fiscal reforms has fuelled talk that the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak is gearing up for snap polls even though the next general elections are not due until 2013.” (Read here)
When Najib was asked recently on the possibility of snap polls, he had this to say:
“…I cannot say one way or the other. If it (general election) happens, it will be a surprise.” (Read here, here and here).
A recent poll conducted in early June 2010, indicated that 72% of Malaysians were happy with Najib (The media release of the survey is available here under the title “Malaysian voters have mixed views on government KPIs – survey”).
Dr. Mahathir and many others sarcastically responded that Najib should quickly call for an election, now that an overwhelming number of Malaysians like him.
The clearest sign that an election is forthcoming was the approval of an additional RM500, 000 in addition to the RM1 million that they had already received, for all members of parliament from the ruling coalition. (Read here and here)
p.s. Note that opposition members of parliament do not have access to government funds although this contravenes Malaysia’s constitution (read here) but then again this is Malaysia.
No doubt, the opposition have also been preparing, with the Islamic party (PAS) being the most impressive while Anwar’s party has been absolutely dismal plagued with infighting. The man himself maybe on his last legs as the government closes down on him through the sodomy case.
The WSJ has an excellent analysis on PAS which runs counter to the general perception (read here).
There have also been calls for opposition run state governments to call for early polls so as to free resources for the federal elections (read here). This would definitely turn the tables on Najib, as it is likely that the PR would retain these states seeing that they have been run more efficiently than under the BN.
Nevertheless, the best way for Najib to move forward on his reform agenda is to call for a poll - to gain a fresh mandate and also to find out what Malaysians think of him. After all, like Julia Gillard, he was not elected by the people of Malaysia and neither was he elected by the members of his party. The warlords put him there and hence he is beholden to them (Najib became Prime Minister through a transition plan that saw a no contest rule at the UMNO party level).
By seeking a mandate from the people, should he win, Najib would free himself from the shackles of warlords in UMNO.
Don’t think there wll be a general election until all the major contracts in the 10th Malaysian plan have been signed. Money makes the world go round and this is particularly true in Malaysia.
BTW – the “no contest” rule was started by Mahathir and has been in force ever since, so the statement that Najib was not elected is only technically correct – not so in UMNO politics
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Hi Neptunian,
That’s an interesting angle. But with all the fight within UMNO and increased scrutiny, do you reckon its still an important consideration?
on the no contest – yes your right although Muhyiddin did threaten to take on Badawi if Najib did not do anything and ofcourse Razaleigh did attempt to go for the Presidency – but was blocked.
No doubt that the warlords got together to put Najib in place with Muhyiddin as deputy and ofcourse a Najib friendly line-up.
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The contracts are always an important consideration. Those are the bargaining chips for the leadership. As for increase scrutiny.. are you kidding me?
Let’s take a look;
1. New Palace cost RM$400 mil, noe gone up to 1.2 B, last est
Contract awarded by direct nego
2. Sungai Buloh land, new city deve… direct nego (billions)
3. MRT – RM$35 B – direct nego, nobody heard of it ntil it was announced
4. Sungai Besi airbase to be converted into commercial area – direct nego (bllions)
5. Former prison Pudu Jail – commercial dev – direct nego (billions)
Now wait for the nuclear plant announcement!
Tell me again please. What has scrutiny and GTP (Govt Transformation) etc got to do with it. Its business as usual. Tou support me, I give you a contract, with all the fat and trimmings. If Najib and UMNO is worried about winning, all the more they will cmmit to very very large contracts, etched in stone to guarantee, they and their cronies will be reaping rewards long after…
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Point taken Neptunian.
It is a foregone conclusion then that nothing much can be expected from BN if only marginal changes are being put forward.
Wonder why the ‘majority’ still comes out supporting BN. Using Andrew’s analogy, are the ‘majority’ of Malaysians hedging their bets when they vote for BN?
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If the electorial process is like the Australian – proportionate representation, then election outcomes would be different in Malaysia. 10 years ago, the “majority” voting for BN would be absolutely right. not so much now.
The election commission is not “independent” electorial demarcations are changed accordingly to favour the BN. The ability to breakdown in precise numbers on who voted for whom has always been a mystery to me. Are the ballots actually secret?
The bulk voters (BN fixed deposit) as the political analyst like to put it are the rural Malays. This group feel they owe BN, and will mostly vote for BN. The Govt agencies (again not independent) cannot tell between their duties and political campaigning. Even so, the voters in Penisula Malaysia are changing, including the rural Malays. If East malaysia is taken out of the picture, BN would have lost the Federal Govt. – So Andrew is not “so right” in saying “majority” still support BN.
BN / UMNO themselves know this and is sparing no effort in persecuting or buying over PKR reps. IF the treat is taken lightly, then why the effort in this endeavour (persecution)
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Hi Neptunian,
I was drawing from Andrew Walker’s analogy of Thailand – where he argued that Thai’s are “adept at hedging their bets”. He was not commenting on Malaysia per say.
It’s true that Malaysia has a serious democratic deficit and there is a feeling of change in the air since March 8, 2008.
But can Malaysians really plead innocence – when we have been part and parcel of this system – which for long periods of time, many of us did support (remember the roaring 90s or Pak Lah’s first term).
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For a long time there was really no alternative to BN. Sad to say, the opposition had been a motley bunch. PAS was spewing fire and brimstone, DAP ran around like a headless chicken etc.
There was no coherence and no shadow cabinet to represent ideas or alternate policies for people to compare and judge. Given that, Malaysian, if they vote, would simly “play safe” Life was good, or at least decent. I myself was a Petronas Scholar… shining example for my “kampong”. Needless to say, the entire neighbourhood, voted Alliance – former BN.
Times are changing though, and the parallel between Thailand and Malaysia, as far as elections go is becoming more irrelevant. The other bits relating to governance, rule of law, judiciary etc, I leave to you imagination
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Najib is facing opposition from both inside UMNO (Muhyddin), and outside the party – the ultraMalays (Perkasa) and the Opposition ‘Pakatan Rakyat’, ie PAS, DAP & PKR. He’s still at the beck and call of the never-to-fade past PM, who insisted that his son sits in the cabinet, while the UMNO Youth Chief is left in the wilderness. So, yes, he needs to get the mandate to ‘rule’ (not govern, this is Malaysia, the PM practically rules the country!), and do things his way (or his wife’s ways, so we’re led to believe, that they co-rule the country). If the betting license was already given & up & running, I would say he’s ready to call for elections anytime. So, that plan is on-hold now.
Yet with the country declared to go bankrupt by 2019, he still found ways to increase the budget for all the white elephant projects (new palace – from RM400 million at the onset to 800 mil now, and expected to ball0on to 1.2 billion at completion, new parliament – if not for the uproar from the people, new armouries for MINDEF, etc). Today, he declared there’s still money afterall for scholarship to all ‘brilliant’ students (a slap in the face for the DPM, who already read out his proposed scheme a few days ago). All signs of spending to shore for cronies and people’s support. More, the publication license for the Opposition papers are denied, with the Rocket the only one yet to be cited. On the mainstream media’s end, they’re running stories of racist rhetorics of Ibrahim Ali vs the MCA Youth Chief, all played to the gallery. Then there’s the new story of Anwar Ibrahim the CIA agent, which used to be Anwar the Israel agent. The smear campaign has started, the clamping down of the Opposition mouthpiece in progress. Soon, the ISA and Sedition Act wil be used against some Opposition leaders, as they demand for answers for those billions lost (including the new palace). I think once they ‘cleaned-up’ their list, he’ll call for the elections. Tried and tested by his guru, Mahathir, son of Mohamed Iskandar Kutty.
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it is easy to comment the ruling Government with everything wrong that is done by them.
No one really look at the greater good .
Let us examine the Opposition – are they better of with them now running 5 states. How can people say that the Government is running crooked election or maybe people are blinded by rage until cannot see.
Selangor is a cartoon state now , with a lot of rubbish coming out from the state government.
Penang – maybe we can describe as a double faced government.
Kedah- tak apa state because GOD is great
Kelantan – always good because have suppose good leaders but with all the sins there is that what is good.
Perak – have a lot of Gila Talak YBs.
That is the reality of the matter
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it is never easy to “governs” a country call Malaysia. Reading all the comments made by fellow readers … a suscint point is now clear .. The people is feed-up with the way malaysia been “governs” .. they want change yet they expect others to do the change for them. It really do not matter who runs this malaysia , things may remains the same . A new event is now emerging .. the growth of 2 partisan barisan. This is new .. BN is now seeing the presence of a new big boys in his neighbourhood.. this is a healthy development and i believe this is good for Malaysia.
On the good and bad character of each party.. that is the malaysia way. That is unique in malaysia and it is still a long way to see the true realities of 1malaysia.
The quest for wealth is not going to end… I believe accepting the malaysian way of life is to accept malaysia reality… that is akin to say in malaysia time is like a rubber band… that’s my view
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Simple, choose between the two. Opposition – no experience governing a nation, can be seen from the way they govern the few states – havoc and no progress. Present govt is the better of the two despite its weaknesses.
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@ Kong & @ Azmi Zain.
It is a question of values. Most Malaysians who support BN, do it for the following reasons:
(1) People who believe in Malay supremacy (mostly in UMNO);
(2) People who accept Malay supremacy as long as they can “survive” – those in BN component parties, chambers of industry & commerce, rentier capitalists;
(3) People who are apathetic (tak kisah) e.g. as long as I have food on my table – I don’t care what BN does;
(4) People who are ignorant of their rights and the responsibilities of a government – especially the poor in rural Sabah & Sarawak but also on the Peninsular, and also large segments of middle class Malaysia who do not understand the workings of a democracy (this also relates to point (3);
@Kong, you will note that very few people vote for BN because they believe that its a great/best political party – they vote for it out of fear, greed or simply not vote.
At the moment, for the reasons stated above, Malaysia is still a low quality democracy as its built on a low quality electorate resulting a low quality government.
If Malaysia is to achieve Vision 2020 or take its place as a leader among the community of nations – it will need to improve the quality of its electorate.
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Hai Greg,
Vision 2020? That’s easy to achieve. Please take a look at Melaka State declaration that it is a “developed” state. I believe Perak has also taken up the clarion and declared itself a “developed” state.
Anyone with any sense will know that both Melaka and Perak are far from “developed” as compared to any developed countries that one can visit with a cheap airline ticket. Yet, they have been declared!
So now back to Vision 2020 – it’s just a matter of declaration. If BN is still the govt then, Malaysia will have achieved Vision 2020 by declaration….. and I will be in Thailand, playing golf when that happens
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@ Neptunian,
The Rakyat will be the judge and I’m counting on the fact that eventually the Rakyat will mature – and not just worry about “bread & butter” issues but higher order principles.
To this end, I do hope that Malaysians like yourself can support worthwhile causes such as MyOverseasVote and the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement.
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Helo everyone,
I’m simply inexperienced in deciding which of the both should earn my vote. Running through the volleying comments, I made a few points here.
1. Largely, young voters forbid themselves from casting a divine vote for BN because they trusted their own eyes, their own ears. No one should deny the way BN runs this country, for me, I don’t really care who was on the throne, as long you did your job splendidly. And clean. You want to exploit the national wealth, sure you could, but at least make sure the policies are running based on consciousness and country’s benefits. It’s just never make any sense if any country could completely sweep corruption out of it.
2. Regarding which coaliation stands a more promising ruling syndicate, I say why not let us swap in between the 2 coliation? People who said PKR stands no chance against BN are definitely a complete denial asshole. And if you said BN achieved completely zero distance in all aspect in the past 50 years, you’re a loser yourself. Both has pros and cons. Both has their own agenda and platform to perform. I would like to see how PKR rules the nation, at least for once. Young people around me would tells me, how their family cast vote to BN just because the parents are civil servants, their business ties . Reality, competition favors a true mandate, and if one of them wants people’s vote, they should compete in a stand out showdown, clean and just.
3. I’m quite inept of these 1Malaysia and vision 2020 stuffs. Look closely if you could my fellow friends, does these apparently bringing any positive impacts? By telling the people we need to be strong is not through slogans and war cry. We united long ago, and we heart this country. 1Malaysia is like an insult to our succumbed loyalty and patriotism, because I don’t think the people need a campaign which apparently stems from political propaganda, to teach us how we should love each other. We know, and it is this government who stirring the ties between me and my other races fellows. So, one last word, stay out of my loyalty, my loyalty is to my nation and not BN. Neither any nation’s destroyer.
My 2 cents, 5 cents and 1 ringgit. What ever la.
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Rumours that Malaysia’s 13th general elections will be called “soon” has been spreading since 2010. Its a strategy that the government uses to keep the opposition in a perpetual back foot. However, the crescendo is now increasing as reported by Reuters.
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Everyone is wondering when the 13th General Election (13GE) will be.
Predicting this is more difficult then finding a needle in a haystack. Signs of a snap election came as early as March 2010
The latest rumour is that Prime Minister Razak will dissolve Parliament on the 11-11-2011, five days after returning from performing the Haj in Mekah. 1-12-2011 will be nomination day with 10-12-2011 being election day.
This fits the more general strategy that the elections is best for Najib Razak if called for between 4th quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.
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Greg Lopez
Greg, in your own understandings and knowledge. What do you think will happen if the Opposition is the new govt and another question, will the Malay Sultans be vanished by the Oppositon.
I myself am a Malay boy from Kuantan, Pahang. I like BN but i dont like PKR. They are the going to be the downfall of Malaysia. The Chinese will gradually control our economy and politics. Soon Malaysia will be the same as Indonesia, full of corruption and a big gap between rich and poor.
I dont hate the Chinese or Indians, but we malays were the ‘original’ ones.
Why cant everyone just accept what malaysia is like now, everyone chatting shit bout current govt and policies and bumiputeras.
Why dont we just shut the fuck up and DO something about it together instead of doing some kind for Bersih Revoulution. Next time when PKR got power. Everyone is gunna be so happy. five years later, semmua nak BN balik because BN was better.
Malaysia is a country like no other, we have three races living under the same roof, we all eat the same food, we all bitch about each other and we always say LA. I am still young and learning and have no experience of politics but all i want to say is that we should not fight against each other as malaysians, look at south africa, they got along with each other, why cant we? do we really want to be like Indonesia or even Egypt!
You who can vote at the moment should think first before you vote which party to vote for. One vote can make a difference. It could make your children and grandchildren worse or better. Or even the future of Malaysia too.
What about this vision 2020… vision my ass, lets keep on improving our economy, tourism and make Malaysia a better place.
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To be honest, I am making a stand for PKR, it is not because they are better, as Malaysia just need a two party system to balance up itself. This is an easy-to-understand concept, take oneself into a scenario whereby he is always the champion, he got no challenger which worth him to practice to be better, time over time this guy will be Ego, Ignorant and of cause Backward. He can’t follow the trend of neighboring school kids (World), not even neighboring class kids (SEA). As we can see, this is the fact that Malaysia is losing out, obviously by only comparing to SEA peers… Ask yourself one simple question, if you always get number 1 in ur class, will you put more effort in ur test? If one day you are ousted by another person, now will you put greater effort? Talk the sweet talk is useless, the one and only solution to make both party do the best for peoples is balance them up. This means vote A for 1 election and B for the next… Simply action and I can guarantee you a handsome yield!
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@ I’m a Malaysian #21
I appreciate your views. You are of course entitled to your views.
However your views are the very reason why Malaysia will never progress as a country.
You may not hate the Malaysian Chinese and Malaysian Indians but your claim that the Malaysian Malays are “original” demonstrates your lack of understanding on the concept of citizenship and Malaysia’s Federal Constitution.
And unfortunately, there are still a significant, albeit declining number of Malays like you, who are actually Malay first, Malaysian second. This is never good for nation building.
When you have the time, please read up on the Federal Constitution to understand what the real meaning of citizenship is.
You will also realise how silly you are with regards to the powers of the Sultan.
Any amendments to remove the powers of the Sultan needs a two-third majority in Parliament and more importantly the consent of all 9 Sultans.
The only person to have successfully reduced the powers of the Sultan is Mahathir Mohamed – in 1993 and not DAP.
You do realise how silly you are I hope.
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“I am a Malaysian #21″
I do hope your are not a typical example product of Malaysia’s education system. As Greg said, you are entitled to your views, but I do think views should be grounded in facts.
“will the Malay Sultans be vanished by the Oppositon”
This is probably a good thing, but cannot happen as it requires two thirds majority in Parliament and the last say is still with the Sultants themselves.
“The Chinese will gradually control our economy and politics. Soon Malaysia will be the same as Indonesia, full of corruption and a big gap between rich and poor”
For a start, the Chinese do not control the sconomy now, the “Malays” do, thru the GLCs and other cronies. If you are not a crony or a cyber trooper, then I guess you do not share in the booty. THis probably explain why you thik the Chinese control the economy or will control the economy.
In the event that the PR takes over the Federal govt, there will still be more “Malays” then other Malaysians in Parliament. Some re-alignment of management in GLCs will probably occur (reduction of political appointees) , making them actually more efficient and profitable. This is a good thing not a bad thing.
As for corruption, you seem to think there is no corruption in Malaysia now! Please pull your head out of the sand… thanks
Gap between the rich and poor? The middle class is now suffering in Malaysia because of the stagnated income situation. The cronies, including Malays, chinese and indians are getting richer and richer. Just take a look at all the contracts awards! Inflated prices, mediocre performance.
“I dont hate the Chinese or Indians, but we malays were the ‘original’ ones.”
This is a good one! Where did you learn your history? Are you an aborigine? Most of the Malays came over from Sumetra in the last 300 years. The early chinese came to Melaka in the 1400s. How far back do you want to go to claim ownershipof a land?
BTW, as Greg said, do you understand what it means by citizenship? The Chinese and for that matter Indians/Arabs were here way before the concept of citizenship was even thought of.
Having control the country for so long and treating it like their own property, the BN govt has forgotten that Malaya was born in 1955 and Malaysia in 1963. Through poor education and propaganda, thr Malays have been brainwashed into thinking the same way.
If you want to build a nation, then you have to start thinking “Malaysian” not Malays and pendatang. A lot of Chinese have more claim to the land than most Malays, who came much later to the land now called Peninsula Malaysia
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