Having played a key role in undermining the legitimacy of Thailand’s monarchy, the yellow shirts are now doing their best to discredit the nation.
The current campaign by the yellow shirts, and their various rabid and fundamentalist off-shoots, is a reflection of a political movement in crisis. With support dwindling, and with the prospects of electoral success looking increasingly remote, they are resorting to the familiar strategy of ultra-nationalism.
The yellow-shirts have been down this road before. Reviving the Phra Viharn dispute in mid-2008 gave their campaign against the Samak government some much-needed momentum. As I wrote at the time:
The Phra Viharn … issue gained prominence in Thailand primarily as a result of an opposition movement that was struggling to find an issue around which it could build a credible campaign against a recently elected government [Samak] that enjoyed parliamentary and electoral dominance. Phra Viharn had been bubbling in the background of Thai public discussion for some time, but in late May and June 2008 it became a focus for opposition protest, as they sought to ramp up their campaign with the PAD march on government house and the Democrat’s pursuit of no-confidence motions in parliament.
The yellow shirts (though most of them don’t seem to wear yellow any more) are now determined to use even more inflammatory rhetoric to give them a new political platform for 2011.
The red shirt leadership must be delighted. With their electoral confidence diminished since the by-election results of December 2010, they will be hoping that the re-emergence of the yellow shirts will both damage Abhisit’s government (the anti-Abhisit invective from Sondhi et al is remarkable) and focus voter’s minds by sharpening the red-yellow political divide.
No one seems to be taking too seriously the claim that the red shirts were planning to bomb the ultra-nationalists rallies. In the current climate, a revived yellow shirt movement may exactly what the red shirts and Pheua Thai need. Even a modest electoral showing by the PAD’s New Politics Party will hurt the Democrats much more than it will hurt Pheua Thai.
Excellent analysis! What is so valuable about the disputed temple? Ah politics! What will be tremendously encouraging is if the next election goes off just fine. Wouldn’t that be outstanding! That most Thais have their feet on the ground; not wandering around up in the clouds somewhere or telling everyone they are ready to jump off a cliff, then doing it while their leaders sneak off to claim the political rewards. Is there ANY difference between the Reds and the Yellows? They both want to take over the airport, etc. etc… hasn’t the latest government already sprinkled enough new benefits, to be paid for in the future, to make this work out ok?
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As per this piece from January 25, 1942, the rightwing in Thailand has a long history of generating territorial claims against its neighbors…and in fact, during a brief period of its alliance with Japan in WW II, Thailand occupied large areas of Cambodia and parts of Laos….only to be told to leave once the war was over…..
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Jan 25, 1942 – Thailand joins Axis, declares war on U.S. & UK, claims right to swaths of Cambodia, Laos & China…..
http://goo.gl/XnhSR
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Steve –
Is there ANY difference between the Reds and the Yellows? They both want to take over the airport, etc. etc… hasn’t the latest government already sprinkled enough new benefits, to be paid for in the future, to make this work out ok?
As far as I concern the red never attempt the take the air port. Furthermore, the red never use the Phra Viharn for their political agenda, and the very core of their demand is totally on the other side of the PAD. On the last note, this governing didn’t sprinkled anything but the increase the budget deficit from 175 Billion to 380Billion with no obvious major project in sight. Some of the “Dustless Road” project was to demolished a perfectly fine side walk in front of the criminal court and rebuilt it, how is that going to pay out in the future??
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The madness of the current situation is not just that we see a rather small-sized crowd (n=2500) of little old ladies and their assorted loony leadership frothing at the mouth saying stupid things, but that the Thai military is playing along with them. They are now planning to conduct military maneuvers including a live artillery fire exercise (a la North Korea) on a mountainside not far from Preah Vihar. Watching the Bangkok Post’s Morning Edition TV broadcast this morning, I was struck by how much Thai politics in this situation is being driven by a mob of people acting like idiots.
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As Steve says, excellent analysis. Needing an issue to build a campaign around is exactly right. The Red Shirts have double standards as their rallying cry. PAD, having removed a democratically elected government, can’t really take that line. What else is there but nationalism? The problem is, as countries around the world have found, when this genie comes out of the bottle it’s *really* hard to put back.
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This time the yellows have dug themselves a hole they can’t climb back out and I’m sure they know well enough in advance of it. Let’s see when they will start going violent which I suspect is well within their plans…..
As for the Abhisit, with 2 colors now going against him….how much more credit can he get, as the lunatic Sondhi said ” People are being fooled by his good looks” and not by his ability….
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It does seem that with no Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand and no pro-Thaksin government trying to change the constitution or grant an amnesty to bring him back, the role of, and support for the PAD seriously diminishes.
Let’s see what happens if Pheua Thai form a coalition later this year.;-)
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Abhisit being trashed by two ‘fringe’ groups on the opposite ends actually legitimizes him as being a worthy leader. Hope he hangs on. Hope the silent majority speaks out in his favor.
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It does seem ironic that this group is getting so worked up about the temple again, at the very moment that Burma Army troops are making incursions into Thai territory, and Burma Army shells are falling on Thai soil.
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“Despite Thailand had helped Cambodian refugees during the civil war in the neighbouring country.” One must know the PAD is talking to the wrong government, and they need to learn more history. Thailand let the resistant factors and the Khmer Rouge to stay in Thailand back then in hope to topple the new government led by Hun Sen. You may not want to remind Hun Sen that Thailand was helping China and the U.S to support Khmer Rouge to fight with Hun Sen in late 1970′s to early 1990′s. China and U.S sent weapons to Khmer Rouge through Thailand. Also if you talked to Khmer immigrants, you will know that Thai armies abused them, raped, and robbed these poor refugees. Thousand of Khmer refugees were also forced to walk back to Cambodia through land-mine-infested jungle at Dongrek mountain through gun point. If one knows history, one should also know that Thais once lived in China. I wonder where they got their current land from without the hospitality of then Khmer empire?
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It is amusing to see Kasit has fallen out with his former comrades the yellow shirts People’s Alliance against Democracy. Kasit once praised PAD rallies for the “good food and music” but now he forgets how and who made him sit in his soft seat in the foreign ministry.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/218587/pad-severs-ties-with-fake-kasit
However, this is not surprising because robbers/thieves always fight each other when they cannot agree on the loots.
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