Pheua Thai’s nomination of Yingluck Shinawatra as their candidate for Prime Minister gives Thailand the electoral contest it had to have. It’s not quite Abhisit versus Thaksin, but it’s as close as Thailand can get to a historical confrontation that has been ten years in the making.
Thaksin Shinawatra has dominated Thai politics for a decade. Electorally he is the most popular politician Thailand has produced. In his last electoral confrontation with the Democrats, in 2005, he flogged them. Like any political leader he had his vulnerabilities, but the forces arrayed against him in 2005 and 2006 had neither the wit nor patience to chip away at his power via electoral means. The Democrats (or, as I used to refer to them, the “Democrats-except-when-you-can’t-win-an-election-and-then-a-coup-is-ok”) refused to rise to the occasion when Thaksin called their bluff with a snap-election in April 2006. The Democrat boycott of that election helped to pave the way for the military coup that came only five months later.
Given all that has passed since, it is easy to forget the central reality of recent Thai politics: Thaksin was a thrice-elected Prime Minister who was forcibly deposed by an illegal military coup. For a great many in Thailand his electoral legitimacy remains intact.
The Democrats are terrified of another contest with Thaksin. Together with their allies in the army, the judiciary and the palace, they have done everything they can to neuter his power. The coup was just the beginning. It was followed by the dissolution of two opposition parties, the banning of scores of Thaksin’s political colleagues, the imposition of a new constitution that can be used to sabotage electoral decisions, the conviction of Thaksin for one of his more trivial infractions, and the seizure of Thaksin’s assets as punishment for his success in contributing to a buoyant stock market. But it’s been an uphill battle for the Democrats, despite the backing they have received from the military and the palace. In the 2007 election, when the smooth and urbane Abhisit faced the odious Samak Sundaravej, the Democrats fared well in the party list vote, but were soundly beaten in the constituencies.
Yingluck is a much better proxy for Thaksin than Samak. That she is more presentable goes without saying. More importantly, she does not have Samak’s long and volatile political history and the whiff of maverick independence and unpredictability that went with it. Yingluck is clearly Thaksin’s woman: “Thaksin thinks, Pheua Thai acts”. Unlike Samak, Yingluck perfectly symbolises Thaksin’s appeal to generational change; her femininity underlines his challenge to established expressions of power; her business background echoes his CEO style; her economic success excites the aspirations that Thaksin cultivated; and, most potent of all, her surname is Shinawatra.
In political terms, Yingluck is Thaksin in a frock.
The government can fume all they like about her being Thaksin’s proxy—with her ear always to the phone—but, of course, that is exactly the point.
This will be a fascinating contest. If Ahbisit can win, he will be able to claim some electoral legitimacy. But he will have to manage that claim carefully, given the numerous shackles that have been placed on his opponents over the past five years. It’s not really a level playing field. Nevertheless, an Abhisit victory would surely force Pheua Thai to re-think the potency of the Thaksin brand.
If Yingluck wins, we’re back to 2005, except with political divisions hardened and a symbolic power vacuum opening up as Thailand contemplates the not-too-distant coronation of an unpopular king. A Shinawatra victory would set the scene for very interesting times indeed.
56 responses so far ↓
1 Nganadeeleg // May 18, 2011 at 10:48 am
It took me a while to come round to the view that Thaksin was ‘as good as it got’ in Thailand, and I acknowledge I was initially fooled by Abhisits smooth talking, but I’m still hoping Yingluck will be better than Thaksin was.
(yeah, you can call me a sucker
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2 Charles Frith // May 18, 2011 at 2:27 pm
A few years ago I’d have agreed that it’s a step back in time. But let’s not forget the unstoppable power of demographics. We’ve had six years of the old guard dying off, six years of the able becoming increasingly disabled, and six glorious years of new blood coming into the game.
Few are privy to who pulls what strings at the elite level, but one thing is for sure.
They’re six years closer to their expiration date.
It’s just a matter of time. Deep down they know they’re clinging on to the past. It’s a losing battle because attachment is suffering.
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3 John // May 18, 2011 at 3:12 pm
It is purely Thaksin’s billions that gives him appeal and to many of his supporters, legitimacy. It doesn’t matter how this wealth was amassed as many powerful people in the kingdom have gained power through illegal means.
Money politics in Thailand is what perpetuates the divide in the kingdom as it reinforces the archaic and corrupt ‘patronage system’ which Thaksin when in power, fully utilized so as to appear to be a champion of the poor.
What differences his little sister will bring as a leader is anyone’s guess ,yet the power of the families enormous wealth will certainly be taken into account when Thais go to the polls.
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4 Simon // May 18, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Jeez, nothing like a bit of bias and axe-grinding. I thought that New Mandala was supposed to be an academically-oriented site? Where’s the analysis?
We already have access to endless quantities of serial partisan ranting. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, I just think a bit of analysis and some honest debate would be a lot more useful than an additional venue for political team sports.
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5 Jim Taylor // May 18, 2011 at 3:25 pm
I feel a bit like a spoiler but…(here is my penny worth): it is not a question the positioning of two political actors or even parties in terms of their respective virtues or otherwise…This makes too many assumptions that are not able to be substantiated. The game plan is far more complex that mere personalities, gendered or otherwise. In this piece we risk losing a vision of the forest for the trees. We know that since late 2006 the amaat regime took on a new and aggressive front in order to claw back power once and for all from an emerging inclusive democratic process; [other than sporadic events post Oct 1976…] No, to my mind it is not about political “partying”. It is about summit dominance over culture, economy, politics, [perceived morality] and a desperately lost civil society, all orchestrated by certain military actors close to the palace in a compact with the notoriously corrupt DP Party [as a face of Thai Parliamentary democracy]; the latter which as AW says, has long benefitted from coups to establish a political platform to rule and control resources and roll out personal benefits. Simply put: it matters little who wins at the polls (and assuming it is going to be fair – which it will not) because we know who will not lose: the amaat regime, which will continue its maintain its control by whatever means over government and policy outcomes.
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6 WLH // May 18, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Nganadeeleg @1, I’m with you. I hated Thaksin because of his hostility to the free press and obvious cronyism, positions I still stand by, but I’ll readily admit that my convictions that he was the “most corrupt ever” was based on ignorance of the Thai par for corruption.
The last five years have been a hard, complex, frustrating but enlightening education in Thai politics. My wife used to idolize the king and marched with the PAD in 2005 — and now she reads Prachathai and is ready to vote PT. Her friends, unfortunately, just cover their ears and drink the yellow Kool-aid.
Like many reasonable Thais I know, I still feel great anxiety that Thaksin’s return will bring the same autocracy/press hostility/cronyism/power consolidation /patronage corruption that we saw from 2002-2006.
But on principle it is preferable to the current autocracy/press hostility/cronyism/power consolidation /patronage corruption of the unelected military and monarchist elite.
To paraphrase Churchill, Thaksin is the worst possible Thai leader, except for all the others.
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7 Tarrin // May 18, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Nganadeeleg – 1
I think you shouldnt put up any hope with anyone at this point (yes not Yingluck, not Abhisit). Thailand’s problem is not about who should get the power, but rather, how the country should reform (or revolutionize) itself from the current elite centralized power structure to the one that allows grass root to have more political say in the country’s affair and for to the country be more open and more “democratic”. Certainly neither PT nor DP promote that particular agenda.
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8 John // May 18, 2011 at 4:30 pm
At the end of the day Thai people deserve who they vote for.
No amount of outside discussion will make a difference, as I have often been told as a foreigner I could never understand ‘Thainess’ no matter how much I read or research.
It is not difficult to see what historically has evolved in Thailand yet the Thais themselves accept what in many cases has been forced upon them.
A great man once said ‘Forgive them for they know not what they do.
There is hope as in an age of global communication maybe there will be a way for the misdirected to find the light and actually see what those in power are actually doing to them and finally say enough!
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9 Charles Frith // May 18, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Sure, there’s an Hegelian dialect being played out and the only aim is for the winner to amass wealth and power but once in a coloured moon the elites and wannabe elite are at war with each other.
The aim is to encourage that inner circle conflict by voting in the unwelcome party and then not participating when both sides are at peace with each other.
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10 LesAbbey // May 18, 2011 at 5:17 pm
I see Phue Thai is offering an executive amnesty decree if they win. Everything done since 2006 will be forgiven. From the Post we have this quote from a well known supporter of democracy.
Although the PAD had earlier voiced its opposition to an amnesty law it would likely agree with the Pheu Thai’s amnesty decree now that its leaders are facing terrorism charges for blocking two Bangkok airports in 2008, Mr. Chalerm said.
I wonder if that’s true. I always suspected that among the PAD there were quite a few willing to be martyrs so it could well be wrong and we could see the yellow shirts in the streets again.
Of course the local press will be full of ‘vote Yingluck get Thaksin’ but don’t forget you get Chalerm and a few others too.
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11 neptunian // May 18, 2011 at 7:45 pm
Hai John #8, I would agreed with you except for the fact that the Thais did not get the govt they voted for! The govt they voted for was sacked by the army / juditiary / whoever ? amart? I don’t know
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12 Khun Aran // May 18, 2011 at 9:07 pm
It seems that Phuea Thai will win the greatest number of seats but fall short of an absolute majority. We will then see the Red Shirt mobs pressuring the smaller parties to join a Phuea Thai – led coalition, and the ammataya pressuring them to join a Democrat – led one, with further political instability following either outcome. Perhaps a royal succession to further complicate matters.
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13 Aintnoelection // May 18, 2011 at 11:50 pm
There will be no election .
I am pretty sure something big will be staged/orchestrated/manipulated during Thursday’s red demonstration, giving the elites the all too obvious reason they have so desperately been looking for, not to have an election they know their pathetic puppet will lose .
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14 Erewhon // May 19, 2011 at 12:25 am
May I refer to WLH’s comments:
“I still feel great anxiety that Thaksin’s return will bring the same autocracy/press hostility/cronyism/power consolidation /patronage corruption that we saw from 2002-2006.
But on principle it is preferable to the current autocracy/press hostility/cronyism/power consolidation /patronage corruption of the unelected military and monarchist elite.”
But is it preferable? Why?
Thaksin is responsible for the death without trial of 2,500 so called ‘drug dealers’, and the killings of 150 Muslims at Krue Se mosque and Tak Bai. Taksin instigated the issue of a guarantee by the EXIM Bank so he could sell his telcoms equipment to the Burmese government. Taksin manipulated a change in the law so that foreigners could own 49% of a Thai telco not 25%, the day before the share sale of Shin Group to Temasek, and the issue of a tax exemption letter for the sale profit by the head of the Thai Revenue Department (since dismissed). Thaksin’s ne’er do well son (found guilty of cheating in his degree exams) was mysteriously awarded the advertising contract for all stations on the Underground line. A Thaksin employee assasinated in North Thailand, as he was about to spill the beans on Shin’s import duty avoidance scheme. Thaksin’s wife allowed to buy foreclosed commercial land at a fraction of real value. Thaksin’s lawyers jailed for attempted bribery of court officers. Thaksin’s wife implicated in the airport xray machine scam. Thaksin attempts to crush dissent and criticism by dismissal of employees at his TV station (staff ordered to be reinstated by the Supremet Court) and his libel action claiming 400 billion Baht against Suppinya Klangnarong. How many more examples?
And the Democrats? They signed off for military expenditure on German submarines, Russian helicopters, Ukrainian APCs, Swedish jets etc etc, showing who holds the real power in the land and who must be appeased accordingly. The approval at the last Cabinet meeting of hundreds of juicy public contracts without any debate, appeases the provincial godfathers. The announcement, after Parliament’s dissolution, that state banks will bail out credit card debtors at lower interest rates, and the bail revocation for Redshirt leaders, was designed to avoid any parliamentary criticism. Democrats? Don’t pull my leg.
They are as corrupt as Thaksin and his henchman Sanoh and Chalerm. Remember it was Chalerm who as Interior Minister signed off on many of Thaksin’s telecom concessions in the early 1990s. And Sanoh who orcestrated the Alpine Golf scam, when he too was Interior Minister (how come the authorities did not sue until the 10 year limitation period expired?)
The election result will either be a Democrat coalition or a Peua Thai one. And if the latter happens, probably another coup soon after.
But is there any difference between Red corruption and abuse of power, and that of the Yellows?
Is there any difference between a flea and a louse?
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15 Withheld // May 19, 2011 at 5:46 am
Yes an election it definitely needed.
Problem is that he elite has been in the background. If PT wins, they will pull out all the stops to keep the PT from being able to rule just as they did when PPP won in 2007.
Murder, LM charges, EC red cards, disbanding PT but yet again, False Flag (aka Black Flag) operations, agents provocateur—they will not allow the Shinawatra clan to actually rule.
Thaksin did his best to appease them with his 2007 selection of Samak, one of their members, who he thought that he would be able satisfy the royalist, the right-wingers, the militarists….. but we all know how that ended.
He is smart choosing a Family Member with brand recognition. All Thai politics seems to involve Thai/Chinese Godfather Family Businesses masquerading as a political parties anyway.
However, mark my words, if they win. They will not be allowed to rule. The octogenarian oligarchs will not recognize any mandate of the ‘people’. Only one that they write and can control.
If they ‘allow’ the PT to appear to take government, be assured that they will hobble it all along the way.
If the Democrats win, after stacking the deck against TRT/PPP/PT so many times and in so many ways, yes they will try to claim legitimacy. Yet the feeling will be that they really cheated and it will always taint them.
And at the end of the day, this whole political debacle probably boiled down to TRT buying cement from the wrong company, or granting a lucrative government monopoly at the airport to a rival family.
Myself, I think that this election will mark the end of Thailand’s legitimacy problem, but rather mark the end of the beginning.
For true democracy in Thailand, the Civil Government needs to get the military under its control.
The pink elephant in the room needs to be brought under the kind of controls that exist in Britain, Sweden, etc.
Corruption must be tackled and significant players need to be incarcerated.
Programs need to be people centered.
The country needs to be decentralized form Bangkok.
And I need to feel comfortable to sign my own name to my postings.
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16 Andrew Spooner // May 19, 2011 at 7:04 am
Les Abbey,
How about Vote Democrat and get Newin? I’d have that down for my election slogan.
What the (Non) Dems and their supporters don’t get is that Thaksin is far far more popular than Abhisit.
And, if it was straight race between Thaksin and Abhisit, with both being able to campaign openly, it would be a PT landslide.
Khun Aran.
Red mobs? You’re referring to the electorate there.
The only “mob” with any real power in Thailand is that in green, equipped with sniper rifles. And they are a tiny minority in alliance with another tiny minority and together they were prepared to kill up to 500 unarmed civilians last year to stay in power. It is only by some miracle that only 93 died.
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17 c. proctor // May 19, 2011 at 11:03 am
Surely the #14 post should replace the article which generated the discussion. I don’t contribute much but I come to New Mandala to learn. I learn more from contributions that don’t floor me with incredulity. The author does his arguments a great disservice by suggesting (amongst others):
1. Thaksin’s 2006 snap election with the greatest majority in electoral history less than a year after winning that overwhelming mandate; was a “snap call” on a Democrat bluff. What were they bluffing with? Charges of corruption, treason? Seems a strong hand. Seems like snap-calling would have been to face due process in court, rather than call a “no confidence” snap election with the greatest electoral mandate in Thai political history? Seem like he knew the Democrats had a strong hand, and rather than call, unwilling to fold, he shoved his entire stack in over the top. The Democrats said “screw that” and boycotted and with the dealer forced to step in and announce the hand to be replayed, Thaksin agreed then disagreed, ignored the House Rules (rightly or wrongly), and the House security walked over and gently suggested he leave the premises. I think that would be a more faithful analogy no?
2. A central reality of a nation in the spectre of a military coup. Perhaps. And the spectre of a criminal fugitive from justice who has never faced the judiciary over his human rights abuses; extra-judicial executions of innocents and what-have-you, funding of domestic terrorism and other trivialities, a failed uprising which left Bangkok a ghastly picture of flames on fateful night etc. You know, as we drift towards the centre of reality…
3. “Everything they can” to neuter Thaksin’s power; example: “the conviction of Thaksin for one of his more trivial infractions”. If a student of mine submitted a contradiction as laughable as this, I’d be sorely tempted to fail the lad on sheer principle. I hope I don’t have to point out why the example obliterates the premise. This is the lecturer writing? Or a (poor) student ghost writing? I’m confused.
4. “Everything they can” to neuter Thaksin’s power; example: “the seizure of Thaksin’s assets as punishment for his success in contributing to a buoyant stock market” This is factually incorrect. It’s almost brazen. This essay must be resubmitted. There was a great deal of unaccounted for baht Thaksin lived on, whilst his domestic bank accounts were frozen pending High Court deliberations – I don’t think he struggled, pretty sure he bought a top-flight EPL football club whilst he awaited the verdict? Those don’t run cheap, you know. Then they returned almost half his many billions with that verdict, which was unjust – clearly. Even if Justice exacted the brazenly incorrect re-claiming of baht in the author’s example of “everything they (could)”, there would still be a very large invoice owed to the Thai people from the fugitive’s luxury digs in Dubai (where, as it stands, a banker faces trial for thieving a stupendous ‘fee’ from his thieving client – where is the honour among their kind?). There is a great deal more coin stuffed away in the globe’s stockings, accounts in the name of T. Shinawatra. Hard to wage an expensive war against one’s political enemies, penniless and exiled, no? I do believe retaining all your Parliamentary (and slightly-less-immune) employees is not cheap, when one has conceded control of the till. Not cheap, would be putting it rather…extra-correctly.
And oh-so-much more…
I like this forum for it’s (occasionally) educating and stimulating discussions. I feel very strongly that the errors in the article detract greatly from the potential educational enjoyment readers expecting to be stimulated, might reasonably expect in the future.
The #14 comment is a great deal more what readers would expect, from contributors I am assuming are aiming to ignite intelligent (?) and open debate.
Last but not least, the distraction posed by the forced focus on the fugitive takes the discussion away from the far more relevant – if somewhat more sensitive – discussion that should be taking place. I refer, of course, to the reality all-too-briefly mentioned in the author’s concluding paragraph.
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18 Tarrin // May 19, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Erewhon – 14
Couple of point I think you should be aware of about Thaksin era.
Thaksin is responsible for the death without trial of 2,500 so called ‘drug dealers’,
It was proven again and again that HRW get the number totally wrong that number was the “total number” of murdered case throughout feb-march. 1,100 of that were drug related, and about 78 cases of that were confirmed to be done by officer on duty.
the killings of 150 Muslims at Krue Se mosque and Tak Bai
Thaksin definitely protect the security force, should he be responsible for Tak bai? maybe, but on Krue Se I think he deserve some justice since the incident happened without Thaksin or Chaovalit consent, the security force just go on do their thing without telling their CO.
Taksin instigated the issue of a guarantee by the EXIM Bank so he could sell his telcoms equipment to the Burmese government.
The deal was specifically structured so that the Burmese Government use the money to “buy” Thai product to improve their “satellite” infrastructure, other than THCOM that is “thai” and dealing with “satellite” what other company fit the profile here??
Taksin manipulated a change in the law so that foreigners could own 49% of a Thai telco not 25%, the day before the share sale of Shin Group to Temasek,
If you know any better that law has been in the making since 2000, its even written in the constitution!
If mean we could go on and on with your grossly inaccurate facts but I’ve been doing that in NM for 3 years I felt like I didn’t want to do it anymore.
Furthermore, don’t mistaken me that I’m mr. T fan or anything, I’ve been critical of him as well. However, if Thaksin is to be judge then also the PM before and after him should be given the same treatment. People seems to be in the illusion that Thaksin was the first corrupted PM, guess what, he is not.
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19 LesAbbey // May 19, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Andrew Spooner – 16
How about Vote Democrat and get Newin? I’d have that down for my election slogan.
But will it Andrew Spooner? Let’s say for example that Bhun Jai has the numbers to decide which party forms the next government, would there be a bidding war? Is it totally outside your experience of Thai politics for that to be possible?
Now Chalerm is a very special case. Long before his boys were old enough to follow in his footsteps he had already showed himself to be the bogeyman of Thai politics. Find some friends who have been here a bit longer to recall some of the stories of Thonburi style election campaigning.
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20 Khun Aran // May 19, 2011 at 2:41 pm
Andrew Spooner:
My election slogan:
Vote for Yinglak, the only fresh item on the menu.
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21 Charles Frith // May 19, 2011 at 3:28 pm
The oysters go off very quickly between the sea and the table Andrew.
Seafood’s a gamble but still worth the risk.
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22 WLH // May 19, 2011 at 3:49 pm
Erwhon @14:
“But is it preferable? Why?”
Because he was elected, that’s why.
When an unelected army imposes tyranny, the will of the people is clearly suppressed. When an elected leader imposes tyranny, well, at least you can say the people made their choice and have to live with it, or go the other way at the next election.
The point of democracy is not to instantly have perfect leadership, but to have an institutional process for incremental improvement based on learning. You either believe the electorate has the right to this learning process or you don’t. I do. The PAD, amaart, and farangs on Thaivisa do not. What do you believe?
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23 SteveCM // May 19, 2011 at 6:08 pm
c10
“Of course the local press will be full of ‘vote Yingluck get Thaksin’ but don’t forget you get Chalerm and a few others too.”
Fair comment, but most major parties (and certainly those with any prospect of office) here have their Chalerms – it’s part of the Thai political package.
It’s voting for the Dems that guarantees you get a much more dangerous (green) cuckoo in the nest – one that will only be further consolidated in its already greatly strengthened position since handing office to Abhisit. The Thai military will inevitably see a Dem victory as endorsement of all that they have done – starting with the coup and including all the many self-serving machinations since – and take it as an encouragement to go even further behind their very convenient facade of “Yes, sir/no, sir” civilian government.
Lousy choice – but it’s surely clear which is the lesser of the evils.
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24 michael // May 19, 2011 at 7:14 pm
I frankly don’t care if Yingluk has had no experience in parliament. She couldn’t do a worse job of running the country than the current impotent PM. I’m not a great admirer of Mr T, but it’s quite obvious that as her mentor he can bring her up to speed fairly quickly – he certainly did a better job as an administrator than anyone since, & it looks like Y will head a more cohesive government (with real power) than the present one. Hopefully T will have learnt some lessons, & will behave better this time. Surely the objective is to get proper elections going again and eventually get the army & its associates out of the picture. It will be difficult, but T is the only contender with any hope of getting the second process going.
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25 Andrew Spooner // May 19, 2011 at 7:53 pm
Les
Yep, MP buying is a far bigger problem than “vote buying”.
But, from all accounts, Newin was made an offer he couldn’t refuse… the money helped, of course.
Chalerm comes over as a straight up gangster – but so are plenty of other people in the Thai elite whom, remarkably, never seem to attract any kind of negative comment from the Dem supporters…
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26 Kaiser // May 20, 2011 at 10:47 am
Why is Taksins corruption preferable to Democrat corruption.
For the simple reason that without some sort of system of democracy it makes no sense to talk of corruption. – there is no such thing as corruption. Corruption is the system.
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27 Tarrin // May 20, 2011 at 11:25 am
Something weird is going on, 2 of the 3 database servers for storing the population ID card database at the ministry of interior affair were out of order. Suddenly 150 ID card printing machines from 150 district were out of order. Furthermore, the temporary “yellow A4 paper ID” was proven to be able to crete easily imitate simply by using a mid range printer and a yellow colour A4 paper.
If this is not some scheme of set up for voting forgery I dont know what is.
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28 Phanfah // May 21, 2011 at 1:18 am
Tarrin, #27
Of course the main purpose is not to allow Pheu Thai to win and military-backed abhisit will return to power.
Besides, look at Bangkok Post’s report that Yingluck may be disqualified. Why the ammat are so scared of losing ?
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29 SteveCM // May 21, 2011 at 3:11 am
c27
Tarrin, according to Don Sambandaraksa (experienced IT writer & ex Bangkok Post “Database” columnist), there may be a more basic exercise going on – given that the sticky-fingered BJT are involved in the purchasing. As so often – follow the money…..
He wrote a piece about this situation at http://www.amitiae.com/?p=2843 – and I then asked him if he could expand on the “why” of what was going on. His reply was posted as a comment under the article and here’s the most relevant part:
“I think it would be safe to guess that the only reason that replacement computers have not been procured is that the, ahem, minor issues of payment have not yet been resolved rather than any ulterior, wider ranging motive. The best thing about backing a critical project into a crisis is that when in crisis mode, emergency budgets can be made without proper scrutiny.”
As he says, he can’t/doesn’t claim to be sure – but that’s his bet. FWIW, he did have the reputation of being quite yellow/anti-Thaksin while at the Bangkok Post.
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30 Nganadeeleg // May 21, 2011 at 11:04 am
SteveCM: Whilst plausible, that answer from Don seems a standard PAD response http://www.facebook.com/smartbrain?ref=ts
Sounds to me that Tarrin is right to at least be concerned about what is going on.
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31 Rachel // May 22, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Here’s one farang who supports Yingluck all the way.
That Thaksin (who wasn’t perfect) had to be gotten rid of in an illegal military coup shows how far the Democrats would use illegal means to get what they wanted. They couldn’t get in legally and fairly so, hey, let’s work behind the scenes and get the elected PM kicked out. Then we can get our guy in office.
Since then, they’ve dragged Thailand down to a level far removed from where it would have been under Thaksin who, as I said, was not perfect but who DID have economic smarts and knew how to deal with international affairs and trade to Thailand’s advantage. Abhisit? Useless.
As a Brit, it’s embarrassing to me that a man this politically unintelligent and impotent (Abhisit) graduated from Oxford University. What an embarrassment for Oxford.
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32 SteveCM // May 22, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Comparing the pictures of Thaksin and Abhisit that you have obviously deliberately selected to portray the two men, I detect absolutely blatant bias on your part – in favour of Abhisit of course! But then, we know this has been your hidden agenda all along…..
The selected Thaksin picture is an accurate reflection of how he looks today – largely unchanged from when he was PM. By contrast, the selected Abhisit picture shows a fairly youthful happy-go-lucky chap that nobody has seen for some time! What is this – the old Dorian Grey trick updated for the internet age?
Proof if proof were needed that “you lot” at NM are absurdly biased in favour of the present regime – pretty funny considering that you’re supposed to be so-called “academics”, I think! Pull the other one! Did you really think we wouldn’t notice this clumsy deception? Huh – think again!
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33 Name // May 22, 2011 at 9:39 pm
#31 “As a Brit, it’s embarrassing to me that a man this politically unintelligent and impotent (Abhisit) graduated from Oxford University. What an embarrassment for Oxford.”
It happens all the time. Isn’t that really what revered universities are all about? Some silly sod at Sam Browne University also decided to award a degree in criminology to a person who feels even less bound by moral constraints than the Unibomber. Indeed, the monumental inadequacies of the World’s political classes have never been more apparent. Well I suppose that in a World where some people consider reality TV to be high art, it isn’t too surprising that people have become hopelessly addicted to celebrity politics. A healthy disregard for the whole shit-shower of current politicians is far better than hero-worshipping a very flawed hero just because he is the last man standing.
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34 Aintnoelection // May 23, 2011 at 12:19 am
I think it is becoming clearer every day that Abhisit is going to lose the upcoming election despite all the manipulation, imprisonment, one sided propaganda and blatant bullying of the Amart .
The only question I have is : what’ s next for Thailand after the puppet disaster ?
I have my own take on the subject but I am not at will to discuss it under the current climate of ruthless repression of freedom of speech .
Yet to anyone with just an inch of historical perspective, it is crystal clear what will eventually happen .
The course of history can be tampered with , but simply won’t be stopped .
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35 Roger // May 23, 2011 at 1:12 am
One of the twits I got today was about Abhisit and his team trying to campaign in Siam area in a sunny Sunday afternoon but were chased away by …… not red shirts, but yellow shirts supporters. Am pretty sure the Nation, Post or Thaivisa will not report this incident.
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36 Erewhon // May 23, 2011 at 4:02 am
To WLH:
“An elected corrupt and tyrannical regime is preferable to an appointed corrupt and trrannical regime. Discuss”
Do you really think a louse is preferable to a flea?
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37 neptunian // May 23, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Erewhon – #36,
At least “I” elected my louse.. do not want a flea to be imposed on “me”
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38 Andrew Walker // May 23, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Matichon’s translation/summary of this article is available here:
http://matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1305908930&grpid=01&catid&subcatid
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39 Nganadeeleg // May 24, 2011 at 10:49 am
Rather than being a referendum on Thaksin, I think the more critical issue in this election is whether the electorate approves of the state killing citizens.
Whilst an Abhisit victory would give him some legitimacy (disputable anyway after all the rigging in his favour), the more serious implication is that a vote for the Democrats, PJT, CTP parties is also effectively a tick of approval to the time honored tradition of Thai military killing citizens.
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40 SteveCM // May 24, 2011 at 6:43 pm
c 39
“Rather than being a referendum on Thaksin, I think the more critical issue in this election is whether the electorate approves of the state killing citizens.”
In principle, yes – though I’d want to express it as “one of the more critical issue(s)” and widen it to include what I described in c23 above.
Abhisit recently said: “We have been mired in a seemingly endless politically coloured conflict with Thaksin at the very centre of it for several years now. Do we really want, or need, a Thaksin clone?”. This seems to be the heart of the pro-government message – with a hint of re-running the 2006-and-after experience. But that coin has two sides; the obvious counter is “Why vote for more of the same (and worsening) conflict that has been so evident since September 2006 – and particularly during Abhisit’s time in office?”
In practice, I see the overwhelming majority of Thai voters regarding most of all that as a relatively minor side-issue – if they think of it at all. Yes….. “It’s the economy, stupid!”. Under Abhisit, despite all the fine talk and promises of jam tomorrow, the cost of living (including, particularly for farmers, the cost of making a living – e.g. buying fertiliser) has gone up way more than their incomes (e.g. what their crops sell for) . That hurts where it counts – and it compares badly with what many perceive to have been the good old days of relative plenty – and with promises made and kept – in the Thaksin years. Doesn’t matter if the perception is correct or whether there are external (global) causes for their change in circumstances. These voters are not paying attention to the (for them) arcane issues of sub-prime meltdown, Wall Street shenanigans and bank bail-outs – nor are they going to be checking the SET index or perusing the latest GDP figures before going in to cast their vote.
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41 Khun Aran // May 24, 2011 at 8:26 pm
I have been living in Thailand for the past six years and each week practice my Thai on around a dozen different taxi drivers. Since the election was called only one out of more than 20 has told me he intended to vote for the Democrats. The rest said that they would vote for Phuea Thai because they see them as better economic managers under Thaksin’s direction, and also to register a protest at the army for removing a prime minister they and others like them had elected three times in a row. I think the most critical issue in this election is whether the electorate approves of the army unilaterally removing a government voted in by a majority of the electorate, not whether the electorate approves of the state killing citizens. After all, one side is responsible for Tak Bai and the other for Ratchaprasong.
One side has put up a clone as its No. 1 candidate, and the other a puppet. My money is on the clone.
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42 justjohn // May 24, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Khun Aran
After all, one side is responsible for Tak Bai and the other for Ratchaprasong.
Agree with most of your post, but we must remember the people who pulled the triggers were the same. The RTA.
The Thai Army are above the government, though sometimes they do agree to agree.
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43 LesAbbey // May 25, 2011 at 11:05 am
Nice to see Phue Thai giving Wan Yubamrung a run in a Bangkok constituency. His father will be proud. Maybe they will let him run the anti-drug campaign if they win.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/238679/chalerm-son-confident-voters-to-give-him-chances
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44 Alec Bamford // May 25, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Nganadeeleg #39
‘Rather than being a referendum on Thaksin, I think the more critical issue in this election is whether the electorate approves of the state killing citizens.’
In my conversations with rank and file red shirts during the Ratchaprasong protests last April-May, I asked about the extra-judicial killings during the ‘war on drugs’ where Thaksin’s role is well documented. The general response was whole-hearted support for decisive action to stop a serious social problem.
If the electorate does not approve of the state killing its citizens, exactly who can they vote for?
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45 Andrew Spooner // May 25, 2011 at 5:05 pm
Khun Aran
No. The army were responsible for both Tak Bai and Ratchaprasong.
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46 Khun Aran // May 25, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Khun Andrew and Khun John:
Thaksin was PM at the time of Tak Bai and Abhisist in April/May last year. The army may well have been the direct cause of most, if not all, of the deaths but the government of the day must accept its fair share of the responsibility.
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47 SteveCM // May 25, 2011 at 6:29 pm
c46
When the army clearly considers itself not answerable to – and operates almost entirely independently of – the government of the day, what is that government’s “fair share of the responsibility”?
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48 Tarrin // May 25, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Khun Aran -46
Someone has to responsible that’s for sure, but as of now, Thailand needs to restructure its governing system first and impunity must not be impose not only on politician but also everyone with “power”.
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49 Nganadeeleg // May 25, 2011 at 7:34 pm
Alec Bamford: Good point.
Both sets of killing could easily have been avoided, so I suppose it comes down to voters making a judgement on whether they prefer killing to hold on to power (delay a legitimizing election and protect the spoils of a military coup), or killing to to try to clean up an out of control drug problem.
They would also have to make a judgement on whether the killings were deliberate or clumsy (or both).
The ‘no vote’ crowd are as bloodthirsty as anyone, and were the chief cheerleaders of the crackdown (and the coup), so they are the worse option.
Given that the killings under Abhisit are the most recent, the fact he dangerously played the 1976 style royalist card with the CRES mindmap, and that Abhistit is directly contesting the election, (whereas the face of the 2003 drug war is not), I still think the upsoming election is much more a referendum on the 2010 killings than the drug war.
As an interesting aside (and I’m not exactly sure what we can deduce from it), His Majesty did comment on the drug war, but to date I have not seen any comment on the 2010 killings.
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50 SteveCM // May 25, 2011 at 7:43 pm
c49
“…..I still think the upsoming election is much more a referendum on the 2010 killings than the drug war.”
And if anything is to be considered a referendum on the 2003 drug war, then surely it would have to be considered at least a factor in the 2005 election? I think most of us know how that turned out…..
Not to mention the opinion polls on the subject that repeatedly show major and widespread support for it…..
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51 Nigel // May 25, 2011 at 11:15 pm
I am consistently amazed by how sanguine many people are regarding the prospect of a pro-Thaksin government in Thailand, which no doubt would lead to the speedy return of the man himself. I wonder how many of these cheerleaders were in Thailand during his previous reign of terror.
My initial feelings towards Thaksin were positive, but his insidious encroachment on press freedom (I seem to recall the withdrawal of advertising from newspapers who did not tow the line and the prosecution of journalists who dared to cross him through Thailand’s absurd defamation laws, amongst other things), the thousands of extra-judicial killings during the so-called ‘war on drugs’, his unconditional support for the murder of Muslims in the South by the army, the disappearance of a prominent lawyer… Need I continue?
In what way could this vile kleptocrat and his sordid crime family be an improvement on anything? And then we have the vultures perched on the shoulders of the Shinawatr family – the Yubamrungs, for instance – scary homicidal maniacs rich enough to be above what passes for the law in Thailand. I am not entirely sure of the shade of glasses through which some of you are viewing this chamber of horrors, but I suggest you remove them and take another look. Oh, and by the way, I am not suggesting that the Democrats are any great shakes either.
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52 Tarrin // May 26, 2011 at 1:21 am
Nigel – 51
Some points worth mentioning.
his unconditional support for the murder of Muslims in the South by the army,
Actually its not “unconditional” support, in case of Krue Se Mosque (which I dont know why not many people seems to mention) the officer in charge was remove from the post as punishment. You should check who was the officer in charge, yep no other than Mr Pallop Pinmanee himself. If you didn’t know, his driver was found with 4.5 kilogram of various explosive not far from Thaksin house.
the disappearance of a prominent lawyer
Many other had disappear before and after his government, nothing has changed. Do I support it? of cause not, but should Thaksin be responsible for everything? of cause not.
the Yubamrungs, for instance – scary homicidal maniacs rich enough to be above what passes for the law in Thailand.
Actually Yubamrungs family is not “THAT” rich (pretty wealthy for sure) but the only reason nobody dare to touch him was because he hold so much secret for so many people, that’s why no one really dare to go against him directly.
Oh, and by the way, I am not suggesting that the Democrats are any great shakes either.
The thing is, the Dem was obviously a lot worse, I certainly more terrify now than when during Thaksin was in the office.
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53 Thailand’s First Female Prime Minister? · Global Voices // May 26, 2011 at 9:10 am
[...] to Yingluck’s candidacy? Andrew Walker, writing for the New Mandala identifies Yingluck’s strengths Yingluck is a much better proxy for Thaksin than Samak. That she is more presentable goes without [...]
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54 Thailand’s First Female Prime Minister? | Sao-Paulo news // May 27, 2011 at 3:51 am
[...] to Yingluck’s candidacy? Andrew Walker, writing for the New Mandala identifies Yingluck’s strengths: Yingluck is a much better proxy for Thaksin than Samak. That she is more presentable goes without [...]
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55 Prva tajlandska premijerka? · Global Voices na srpskom // May 30, 2011 at 3:21 pm
[...] su reakcije na Yingluckinu kandidaturu? Pišući za New Mandala, Andrew Walker prepoznaje njenu snagu: Yingluck je mnogo bolji Thaksinov zastupnik od Samaka, mnogo bolje [...]
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56 Nuomi // Jun 3, 2011 at 7:38 pm
#27 Tarrin,
This is old news I know but I have not been online for a while. There is a conspiracy theory that the govt ran out of budget to get the smart cards for IDs – printer out of order is just a cover story (I am one of those still on yellow slips).
Cheers
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