[This is a rough translation of an article from Siam Intelligence Unit]
Thailand’s upcoming general election in July will decide where the country will head in the next few years. After the reign of Thaksin, Thai politics has become much more “leadership-driven” and people now consider the quality of PM candidate as one of their voting factors.
We can’t deny that there are only two distinct PM candidates at present: the incumbent Abhisit Vejjejiva from Democrat Party and Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister from Pheua Thai Party. The voters will definitely decide who is better for the job but for now we will compare these two just according to their attributes.
As a Thai think-tank on politics and policy, Siam Intelligence Unit (SIU) evaluated both of the candidates and then put the results into comparison table. The goal is to provide the Thai public easy-to-read information for the election. It is quite popular in cyberspace with nearly 5,000 views, 150 tweets and 277 Facebook shares. So we decide to reach non-Thai readers who are interested in Thai politics too.
We use the data as of 20 May 2011, the day after Yingluck officially announced her campaign. As you can see, some details are missing. For the English version, we decide to keep the same information and leave it to the readers to give the score in the missing spots.
Quick explanation for the table:
Age
We can see both are in their 40s. This is a good sign for Thai politics entering the new generation, no matter who will be the new PM.
Education
While Yingluck has a masters degree from the USA, which is above Thai average education. Abhisit beats her on this front. He is true world elite: Eton, Oxford’s PPE and St John’s College.
Family
Both are married. Abhisit has two children, Yingluck has one. Yingluck married without registration and a Democrat MP attacked her on this issue. He got a backlash from the Thai public and feminists. Chuan Leekpai, two times PM and former Democrat leader, also married without registration and has one son.
Wealth
As a member of the Shinawatra family, Yingluck is definitely a millionaire (if not a billionaire). She also had a day job as a CEO of SC Asset, a public company. Abhisit’s family is also rich but he can’t compete with Yingluck with his fortune.
Appearance
Abhisit was greeted by the foreign media as “photogenic PM” and many of his supporters are women. However, Yingluck is competitive as well. She has a good look, slim figure and modern style. Many Thai men are surely pleased with her media appearance. We give them a tie.
Political Experience
Abhisit wanted to be a politician since his he was a teenager and his family intentionally raised him as a PM candidate. He was Chuan’s assistant in his gap year at Oxford. Since then he has become a spokesman, a minister, a party leader, an opposition leader and finally the PM in one of toughest times in Thailand’s political history. So we give him a perfect score.
Yingluck shows her strong ability in her current campaign tour but she has no official political experience.
Oral Skills
In his Oxford times, Abhisit was a head of a debating club. Not many Thai politicians dare to challenge him for a debate. Another perfect score for him.
At our evaluation time, Yingluck had not given any speeches so we give her unknown score but her current campaign in North/Northeastern Thailand show that she is a good speaker too.
Administrative Skills
Abhisit has been attacked in his reign on the basis that he can only speak. Thailand was not a failed state during his time but we can’t say he is good on administration. We give him 2 of 5.
Yingluck has full business administration experience but we have two criticisms:
- Being an exec from the Shinawatra family in a Shin Corp company is not so tough, right?
- Business administration is not exactly the same as country administration.
So we can’t give any score to Yingluck yet.
Leadership
On the one hand, Abhisit showed his strong leadership skill during 2010 military crackdown (even if many did not agree with his approach). On the other hand, he showed the lack of leadership as well: during Thailand’s 2010 flood, the controversy with Cambodia and the appointment of Royal Thai Police head. We give him 3 of 5.
We can’t give any score to Yingluck, as stated in previous points.
Economics Skills
Abhisit has a degree in Economics but he usually assigned the finance & banking tasks to Korn Chatikavanij, the Finance Minister (also Eton and Oxford graduate). He is not outstanding PM on economic policy and got 3/5 from us.
By business nature, Yingluck should know a lot about economics. But as stated above, we can’t give her a concrete score before she really takes the top job.
Relationship with Red Shirts
While some of progressive red shirts think Yingluck is Thaksin’s nominee, almost all red shirts are pleased with her “true Shinawatra blood”. We give her a perfect score.
In the other side, Abhisit is red shirts’ biggest enemy. Especially after the May 2010 crackdown.
Relationship with Yellow Shirts
Yingluck is Thaksin’s sister, a taboo in the yellow shirts’ world.
Abhisit was a dearest politician in the yellow shirts’ eyes but after a dispute on Cambodian border, he is now the yellow shirts’ biggest enemy too. Poor him.
Acceptance from Thai Middle Class
In Bangkok, the Democrat Party won a landslide in the 2007 general election. His clean, elite, and good looking nature catch Thai middle class heart completely. Two and a half years later, some are still his fans but many think he is not competitive and can’t bring the country to peace.
Yingluck hasn’t faced a vote before so we can’t decide. But now many polls show her popularity is rising very quickly.
A simple but good analysis.
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7 
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Yes, but Abhisit has lousy business skills. It has been proven already. and 2/5 is still too much. The economy isn’t doing so hot, either. Palm oils anyone? 3/5? With that score, we’d think that Suthep was doing the grading.
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The chances of electoral fraud and ballot stuffing by the ruling elite regime are inevitable – given the stakes (see Amsterdam and Peroff, “Down by the Law: Thailand 2011 General Election Report Series, No.2: http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ERS-DOWNBYLAW.pdf) In Australia, 18 & 19 June will be the days in Canberra and Sydney for formal voting, but in the past few months the Thai Embassy has sent out notification forms for postal voting requesting all personal information and IDs. The cheating will not take place in Australia, but all votes from various countries will be sent in sealed boxes to the Department of Foreign Affairs in Bangkok to sit there for a few weeks mixed together & unattended (guess the rest!) Rules of the game are also changing by the minute to marginalise pro-democracy “red” voters: there is a video shown in Thailand by the Election Commission (กกต) which shows voters what to do and what not to do. Red shirt voters are shown voting wrongly while yellow shirts come along and show the correct method! (see the “two [Red] Ajaan’s” Dr Suda Rangkupan and Dr Jaruporn Kundilok: http://thaienews.blogspot.com/2011/05/2_29.html). Pre-voting is another easy method of fraud and has already started as companies and government agencies coerce their employees to vote in advance so that their votes can be manipulated. The DP’s amaat Governor of Bangkok [M.R.] Sukhumbhand Paribatra has asked the army to be in the capital during the elections. This is very dubious and smacks of a hidden motive. This is the first time the military has been deployed in this way for keeping an eye on a general election. NLA Meechai Ruchupan came out to say that he is not happy with the provincial electoral commission (actually elected by the people!) and agrees with the corrupt judiciary that these positions should be selected by them. Then there is the veteran peace and human rights advocate [seen sitting on the fence, but leaning towards the centre] Gotham Arya, posing as a neutral actor, who may even take ASEAN observers to see the regime’s staged “good” balloting, and ensure observers avoid the corrupted balloting elsewhere around the country! We can anticipate lots of likely dodgy activities from a range of pro-amaat actors in the coming weeks until the election. So what can we do? A red election watchdog is being formed within Thailand and outside Thailand by pro-democracy Thais. We cannot guarantee that the election outcome will not be fraudulent but we can and will at least monitor and document every activity undertaken by the despotic regime and its friends.
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Why do these Shinawatras . . . Thaksin and Yingluck . . . prefer no-name American schools for their grad/post-grad degrees? Either these Shinawatras were just plain lazy or their university scores were just sub-par that disqualified them to get accepted at name/highly credited US graduate schools.
Hot debate. What do you think? Quality comment or not?
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I immediately dismissed this “anaylsis” when I arrived at Wealth. The Shinawatras might have more money than the Vejjajivas, but 3/5 makes it seem like Abhisit is somehow middle class. I wouldn’t be surprised if both families are in the top percentile nationally, and neither are representative of the average Thai family income/wealth.
@ Jim Taylor – Do you have a personal vendetta against paragraphs?
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I hope Ms Yinglak becomes prime minister. Then Thaksin would be free to replace General Prem as chief privy councillor.
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c4
As to the opening question – I suggest you tweet both and ask them. Feel free to come back and report the response(s).
Given how money talks (as do connections) and gains places for even the most academically suspect at the most prestigious US universities, I doubt that academic grades had anything whatever to do with the choice for Yingluck. I don’t know about the choices open to Thaksin at the time – but then, after two terms as a highly popular and successful PM, that’s rather…. ummm….. “academic” now, isn’t it?
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To Leeyiankun,
We do not want a leader with business skills. In fact, we need one with strong management skills and both differ significantly. I also question Abhisit’s management skills because he fails tremendously as the manager of his government.
To SteveCm,
Like Twitter, this forum is also an opening discussion so Vichai N just expressed his view. No need for sarcasm on this forum. The comparative table compares various aspects of both potential leaders and I think acaemic background is a valid point. A number of research studies (i.e. Bass, House, Fidler etc.) confirm positive relationship among strong academic intelligence and leadership.
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I fail to understand why the wealthy including Thai politicians alike are educated abroad as when they return to Thailand they are seemingly unable to implement what was learn’ t in the west.
It doesn’t seem to be RESPECTED!!
Thousands of Thai students study abroad, many do business studies that apply to international standards especially within Europe, the USA and Australia, yet on return to Thailand these graduates are thrown back into an archaic ‘patronage system’ that has no regard for international standards of doing business, as this system operates outside of set rules and laws.
How foreign countries deal with such duplicitous standards in international trade with Thailand intrigues me!
The international degree so favored by the elite classes in Thailand, seems like a FACE building exercise much the same as acquiring a designer handbag.
It makes you wonder why Thai Universities are viewed as sub standard in terms of the degrees they offer.
Why must Thais go abroad to study when they really can’t apply what they have learn t once they return to Thailand?
Its totally absurd but when you look at what goes on in the kingdom you can strangely understand.TIT
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“We can’t give any score to Yingluck, as stated in previous points.”
Surely if Khun Yingluck is “Thaksins clone” and “Vote Yingluck-Get Thaksin” plus Thaksins statement that he doesn’t want her to be PM makes it clear that us and the voters that she is not required to run the country only win the election as a proxy.
Therefore should we not substitute Thaksins scores against Abhisits where it is stated she has no experience to make a more informed comparison?
The questions for most people I think are:
1. How successful will he be running the nation by telephone?
2. When will he pick up the courage to return?
3. What changes need to take place before he does?
4. What will happen when he does?
3 and 4 are the most interesting IMHO. Note I say when, not if.
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John – 9
I fail to understand why the wealthy including Thai politicians alike are educated abroad as when they return to Thailand they are seemingly unable to implement what was learn’ t in the west.
That was because Thailand political system is nothing like the West. No matter how progressive you are or whatever you might get from the West, the elite will shoot you down pretty easily because they have all the tools at their disposal such as the media, the state apparatus and the gossip network to destroy you.
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I like ‘sarcasm’ as much as I like ‘innuendo’., but thank you just the same Nattavud(#8) because I am starved for affection at NM.
But why SteveCM will disregard academic background (for Thai PM candidates) could probably be explained by SteveCM highly endorsing a ‘pimp’ (Chuvit!) to the Thai legislature.
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Full score for Abhisit in “Oral skills” and “Political Experience” is ridiculous.
Best argument against the first is his low rated and rarely watched boring Sunday Morning Show, and his at least mediocre performance at censure debates.
In eperience he is clearly not on level with Thaksin, who should get one point more. Maybe even two, for how he handled PT under unfavorable conditions, fooled everyone with a fake Mingkhwan candidacy and surprised with his sister.
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“No need for sarcasm on this forum.”
There is every need for it, as about the only means available to indicate that local politics is a total bum steer. I would hardly call NM the cutting edge of political punditry either. Although to be fair they talk up the stuff that supposed elite people need to know. It is just irrelevant to us mere mortals who struggle to survive the constant shitstream of local powermongering. Indeed, even that token rebel Chuwit claims to ‘love’ the system.
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Tarrin – 11
All that wasted money, time and effort for international degrees.
Why is it always the ‘face value’ of the west that Thais love to consume but to actually have them learn and apply something they have learnt in the west sees many Thai turn xenophobic exclaiming they do not respect the knowledge that comes from there.
Its totally contradictory and actually makes the PM, Yingluck and her big brother who has a degree from the US look ridiculous.
If they can’t apply anything they have learnt in the west they should not have gone to study there in the first place.
Thai universities could of offered them more than enough knowledge of how to deal with the peculiarities of Thai politics they certainly did n’t need to go abroad.
Iinternational degrees in Thailand are actually worthless when you come to think of it as you could never really apply anything you have learnt to the Thai way of doing things as you’d surely get knocked down soon enough by those very dinosaurs who have hijacked the culture.
Gotta luv them elites they know how to make an academic look really good!!!!
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Vichai N – 12
But why SteveCM will disregard academic background (for Thai PM candidates) could probably be explained by SteveCM highly endorsing a ‘pimp’ (Chuvit!) to the Thai legislature.
Education might be an important thing but hardly a deciding factor, what you said is just a good example of typical Thai elite want na be.
John – 15
Thai way of doing things as you’d surely get knocked down soon enough by those very dinosaurs who have hijacked the culture.
Thailand got this unique problem that we can say anything about the dinosaurs so its really hard to get rid of them, but well, some people are trying.
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Nowhere do I “disregard academic background (for Thai PM candidates)”. On the contrary, I made the point that Yingluck’s money and connections would have gained her admittance to the most prestigious universities – enough that any supposed deficiency in her intellectual/academic ability is very unlikely to have been a bar to her entering one of them.
I do make the rather obvious point (as any employer would readily understand) that two well-documented and successful terms “on the job” as PM make consideration of his much earlier education background relatively irrelevant. If education equips you to “do” and there are many successful years demonstrating such “doing”, then one can’t escape the conclusion that either the education did its job or – failing that – it plainly proved to be no hindrance to the man’s rise. Richard Branson (and many others) would understand this very well.
Judging by recent interviews (particularly ABC’s video version), of course, we’re given to understand that Thaksin is not a candidate for PM in any case. For string-puller-in-chief? Almost certainly. Given that, perhaps people would like to compare Prem’s less than glittering academic background with Thaksin’s?
As for Chuwit, I stand by my comment that he’s a valuable part of the necessary mix in any legislature – 1 out of 500 in this case. If others choose to try and make specious hay with that notion….. up to them.
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Decent article.
Family Income: as @Ricardo pointed out, Abhisit should be at least 4/5 — extreme family wealth, less than Thaksin, but nowhere close to middling. Three stars is more appropriate for someone like, say, Weng Tojirakarn.
Political Experience: Abhisit does not merit 5 stars. He has been around for a while and and a PM for 2 years, but then how many stars should be given to, say Prem, Chuan or Anand Panyarachun or for that matter, Thaksin?
Oral Skills: while Abhisit speaks well and can hold his own in a debate, he’s far from a brilliant public speaker, did he ever make a memorable public speech? He’s smooth, but unremarkable — more akin to a good corporate PR rep, rather than a notable political orator.
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We are glad for many conversations generated by this infographic. Btw, we will address just only the comments directed to the table/infographic.
leeyiankun – 2
Both Abhisit’s administration and economics scores are “average”. Not so hot but not so bad.
Ricardo – 5
The percentile ranking is a good point. But how we evaluated is much simpler (we admit it is not best approach). 3 is for normal rich people (above average middle class), 4 is for a millionaire and 5 is for an exceptional billionare (e.g. Forbes listing or a member of rich tycoon)
Billy Budd – 10
It’s one of our ideas to compare three people (Yingluck/Thaksin/Abhisit) but finally we decide to use official data as possible.
Tukkae – 13
I personally agree that his Sunday show is boring but his day-by-day media war skill is sharp.
For the latter point, it’s “Political Experience” not “Political Skills/Success” so Abhisit who has almost 20 years in politician career and many official titles scores 5 on this point.
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Tarrin 16
“Thailand got this unique problem that we can say anything about the dinosaurs…..”
Oh really?
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billy budd-
Oh really?
Can’t* typo there.
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So being educated in the West creates great leaders does it? So in the US recently we have had Bush (R) and Obama (D) , both puppets for their Banker overloads, both ran absurd economy destroying debts, both oversaw wars of profit and both oversaw US companies exporting jobs to China. Good stuff.
Both Abbhisit and Yingluk are Elites, the former old money and the latter new money. Both are puppets in their own way and report to their masters, neither offers any long term intelligent plan for the future of the country, although both are buying votes through populism.
The Democrats cannot even win an election without the army helping out, Pheua Thai would probably face another coup if elected. As such the better result is probably Abhisit with his gaggle of experienced Treasury raiding cronies as will probably be more peaceful without yet another military coup. Great choice.
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What does “married without registration” mean? Don’t say ‘common law marriage” either, it does not exist. In the old days the children of such relationships were referred to as illegitimate. No longer.
I thought the modern custom was to refer to one’s partner, whether that person is male or female.
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Re Tarrin 11 and John 15
I condemn foreign universities particularly in USA UK and Australia whose priority is to gather in foreign student fees from Thai and Asian students for ungraded master’s degrees.
Amongst law firms in Thailand, the cynical view is that foreign paper LLMs at least imply a degree of English language ability that might not be the case had the Thai student not studied overseas, and saves firms the cost of paying for Englsih language lessons. I recall interviewing one Thai lawyer who had on paper a LLB and two foreign LLMs. She was so immature, childish and uncommunicative that I would not have offered her a job as the office cleaner. God knows how she was awarded 3 degrees.
And what does that say about the quality of Thai university degrees and English langauge abilities? Not a lot.
Banharn’s foreign degree is from a French university, as I recall he cannot even speak English. Thaksin’s foreign degree is in criminology. Doubtless that taught him that drug dealers had to be quietly removed without the need for evidence and trials etc.
The point is that Thai universities must raise their standards, and foreign universities should not look cynically upon foreign students as a source of extra income.
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Erewhon #24,
Been living in Asia long or an asian yourself? “don’t tell me about common law?”
Haven’t you heard of “traditional” marriage. A lot of S.E. Asian actually goes through “traditional” marriage without doing the “western” imposition of a registered marriage. Don’t know about Thailand, but “traditional” marriage, where the couple go through a traditioal wedding ceremony is regconised as official.
BTW, what’s the big deal about not being able to speak English. I think the Chinese has sent a probe around the moon, with designs and engineering done by non English speaking or writing scientists and engineers!
Don’t even get me started on Koreans, Japanese, Germans, French, Italian etc etc. Beng an Anglophil does not make one a better person nor professional!
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Erewhon – 24
I would not blame the West education that’s for sure since there are many outstanding school out there that’s really willing to give their students good education and good attitude. Are there a sub-par quality university in the West? certainly, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say the whole system is so corrupted with greed.
Furthermore, I do agree that having population with good english skill is certainly a requirement for every country to be success no doubt, but just because the person couldn’t communicate well and immature doesn’t that the person is stupid or incompetent.
Education is not even the core problem in Thailand, its the political culture.
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Highest education achievement of Abhisit is an Oxford BA in PPE, Politics, Philosophy and Economics. The MA is a qualification added by paying college fees, it is not the result of any academic course or thesis.
PPE is a relatively easy option and does not carry much weight on an Oxford scale. If my memory is correct, he graduated with a 2nd Honours, hardly a brilliant achievement.
The Eton component is available to anyone with the money to pay for it, given average intelligence.
I have no estimate of the worth of Ms Yingluk’s academic achievement, but on paper it trumps that of Abhisit
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How come transparency (aka tendency to corrupt or abuse national policy for the benefit of self or family members) is not included. I think it’s one of the most important criteria for candidate PM.
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I agree with Kate – transparency & accountability is very important regarding Prime Ministers, politicians, institutional appointies, and Heads of State (and their family members).
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Nganadeeleg – 29
Yeah agree on that, the politicians have to declare their asset but not the judge, not the military, and of cause not the Head of State.
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Kate and Ngnanadeleeg, transparency is something that you have to see through. This is not easy.
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@Khun Nganadeeleg wrote:
“I agree with Kate – transparency & accountability is very important regarding…Heads of State (and their family members).”
I agree that transparency and responsibility for Head of State is very important, and Thailand lacks that badly isn’t it?
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Very good to see the election results in Peru where Keiko Fujimori, running in order to get an amnesty for her father, a convicted corrupt authoritarian leader known for his human rights abuses, lost.
Now let’s substitute brother for father. Remind you of anyone?
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Personal honesty with accountability must be a proven and repeatable pattern for every candidate and office holder. Either man or woman must have their feet held to the fire and the people have to be continually informed of the leader’s record.
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