Thaksin Shinawatra has many failings. His errors and mis-steps are legion. But when it comes to winning elections Thai politics has never seen anything like the campaigning and politicking machine built, and then re-built, by the deposed former Prime Minister. We may all debate his legacy and his various policy contributions but there is little doubt that Thaksin, when in election mode, has proven Thailand’s best.
With his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, as the leader of the Pheua Thai party Thaksin is excited about prospects for the July 2011 poll. Talk of a return to Thailand later in the year must be predicated on a win for Pheua Thai and the Thaksinites. With his proxy candidate, described by Andrew Walker as “Thaksin in a frock”, he must also be confident that the old heartland will still throw its support behind the Thai Rak Thai 3.0 juggernaut.
While none of us ever know exactly what will happen when the Thais go to the polls we do know that a strong showing for Pheua Thai is almost guaranteed in at least some parts of the country.
Will that be enough for Thaksin and Yingluck to win a majority, or cobble together a coalition, to re-take power?
Time will tell.
In the meantime, I think it is worth seriously considering what could happen if Pheua Thai wins.
Many analysts seem to expect that new campaigns of destabilisation — spearheaded by yellow shirt street protests and augmented by judicial, palace or military interventions — could be on the immediate agenda. Red cards for vote buying would surely follow any Pheua Thai victory. Recent history indicates that the party (the third reincarnation of Thaksin’s machine) could be promptly dissolved, especially if it wins the election outright. The Pheua Thai tacticians will need to be extra careful because even small miscalculations could prove disastrous.
With this in mind the question preoccupying me right now is:
Can those powerful forces that out-maneuvered Thaksin in 2006, destroyed former Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and then swept aside the Somchai Wongsawat government really be expected to sit on their hands if Thaksin’s sister vaults to power?
The risks for the coup-brokers and other decision-makers are potentially overwhelming. Can they even contemplate those risks? Compromises and reconciliation are not impossible but everything we have learned since the coup of September 2006 suggests that Thaksin remains uniquely unpalatable to some of Thailand’s most powerful forces.
If the decision was made back in 2006 to keep Thaksin out of government for the time when the king dies (and thus when the palace transition occurs) then a Pheua Thai win is likely to be, at best, a short term success. So much treasure has been spent and blood has been spilled trying to ensure that Thaksin is not in-charge during that transition.
A Pheua Thai win, perhaps, but then what happens next?
I think PT will get red card regardless of whether they did something wrong or not. Last time when PPP got dissolve the evidence was not even strong but the court took it anyway, that said a lot about Thailand jurisdiction.
Anyhow, I don’t think when PT got dissolve (again) it will turn the country into hell hole or anything, just the dem will take the power again and people who opt for election will understand that election under dictatorship wouldn’t bring any good.
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If the decision was made back in 2006 to keep Thaksin out of government for the time when the king dies (and thus when the palace transition occurs) then a Pheua Thai win is likely to be, at best, a short term success.
This is very interesting, and perhaps a thought many of us have in the back of our minds.
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There could be a double whammy coming up. A big Pheua Thai victory, and an International Court of Justice decision generating a tsunami of international opinion repudiating the military/nationalist/monarchist/fascist aggression against Cambodia. The n/m/f faction in the military could lose enough face for the Thaksin faction to make a comeback. If the latter were to finally morph into a strong pro-parliament faction, the bad times could be over. A triple whammy might not be necessary.
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I also believe that the military and the elites are up to some dirty tricks. We certainly will know what they are if Puea Thai wins the election.
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The priority desire of certain forces to keep Thaksin out during transition has not changed.
The consequences of their actions, as expressed by the reds, has changed completely.
During the 2006 coup, civil protest was limited to what — a lone kamikaze taxi driver charging a tank?
By May 2010, well, you know.
The court dissolution of PT nullifying a clear election victory on selective, capricious legal charges will be effectively a challenge to the reds/PT/Thaskin that they’re bluffing. I can’t believe the generals would be that stupid. In the event of civil war, they lose a lot.
Wouldn’t it be a lot easier to hire some ex-Mossad agents to “disappear” Thaksin? Then let PT win and govern (thus avoiding a flashpoint for civil protest) and watch as their MPs slowly become like every other MP: petty, selfish, corrupt, bereft of ideals. Without Thaksin, PT becomes like BJT but bigger. Suddenly it’s 1999 again.
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How to defeat a PT victory? Read Bangkok Post 7th June – perjury charges are bring considered against Yingluck, it is said she gave false evidence and was holding shares on behalf of Thaksin during his asset enquiry. Redcards being prepared!
BTW your comment “Thaksin Shinawatra has many failings” must win first prize for the understatement of the year.
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Let’s not forget the old rule that there are no permanent enemies in Thai politics.
Backroom deal: Thaksin and the army agree to let PT rule as long as Thaksin waits one year before returning, doesn’t meddle in military appointments, lets them run the South as before, and increases their budget 25%.
As for “keeping Thaksin out during the transition” — wait, didn’t Thaksin support the CP? If the army wants him out when the king dies, does that mean they don’t support the CP? If the army wants a strong monarchy under the CP/Rama X, then how is Thaksin a threat to that?
Maybe add “stay away from the CP” to that backroom deal list.
Surely this kind of deal is better for both the army and Thaksin than a war of attrition?
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Perhaps we have all missed the point of why the election was called in the first place?
Consider when the banned executive of the old TRT become eligible to run for office again because their 5 years is nearly up?
Would the Democrats stand a chance then?
The Democrats just might scrape home with the help of Newin Chidchob and the smaller parties this time, but if the old TRT executives were running they wouldn’t have a hope.
Perhaps one of the academics would like to explore this angle?
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Thanks everyone, some seriously interesting discussion here already!
Roger:
This is a particularly useful comment. I’m inclined to agree that the various clocks that are ticking all help determine the electoral (and other) calculations. The fact that within a year the old Thai Rak Thai warhorses can get back in (official) business must weigh heavily on some minds.
I think there are other clocks that are also ticking increasingly loudly. Some are obvious. Some less so. Perhaps this will be a topic for a future post.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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I think things have changed a lot since the coup and subsequent machinations of 2007-08. There was no substantive Red Shirt movement at that point in time threatening to take to the streets and raise the international profile of the peoples’ grievances to something paralleling that of the Arab spring. The risks involved in any kind of action stifling the peoples’ will – be it judicial, military or whatever – are far greater now than before simply due to the presence (and experiences) of the Red Shirt movement.
Much more likely is for a PT win to be followed by a range of elite-level compromises: an ‘acceptable’ defense minister, Prayut staying on as army chief, amnesties on both sides, broader divvying up of govt contracts, suitable PT obeisance to the monarchy and so on.
But, as Nich says, nothing is predictable, and it may just be that the ‘powerful forces’ are simply far more obstinate and intractable in their singular terror of Thaksin than any more reasonable positions can account for. The wildcard for me is the US – and from what we know about emerging US strategy in bunkering down in ‘friendly’ SEA states like Thailand to balance China’s regional influence, not to mention the silence to date on brother Joe Gordon – the signs are not positive.
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Roger: Good point. Maybe Thaksin also favors the election timing because he can more easily control the less influential PT MPs than his own old guard? Can’t prove it but I likt to think Thaksin loses more sleep over his own people than over his known enemies.
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Roger – 9
Perhaps we have all missed the point of why the election was called in the first place?
And there was me thinking it was Abhisit keeping to his promise on having an election this year which was given under pressure from the red shirt protest. Now I know it was to avoid facing such vote winners as Sudarat, and …, and …. Ah well let’s say he called the election early so as not to lose a Bangkok seat to Sudarat.
Come on Roger and Nich, a bit of thought rather than more conspiracy theories please. That almost matches the “When will the next election be?” post.
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When the Peau Thai Party wins this next election, my prediction is that all the radical Red Shirts of Thailand will deliberately shed their shirts of red and put on their victory color of: Black Shirts of Thailand. That done, the huge brigade of Black Shirts of Thailand will proceed to welcome their Supremo Thaksin when he arrives at Suvarnabhumi Airport (around November 2011 is Supremo’s promised return date) and welcome the Supremo Thaksin with a 21-gun salvo using their favored M79 grenade launchers of course.
I could just see the fireworks and the coming carnage.
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The Thai military have done more than 18 coups… what makes you guys think it will be any different this time. Many have died in street protests.. International condemnationis often mute and always ignored.
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“The risks for the coup-brokers and other decision-makers are potentially overwhelming. Can they even contemplate those risks?”
Well, Nattawut was hinting at the risks in a very recent rally in Udon Thani:
“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack,” he added to waves of applause. “Let’s get this over with and finish the fight. Then we will bring Yingluck back to become prime minister.”
I observe the redshirts very carefully not just by following media but by actually witnessing a big number of their events on site. Personally I consider the risk for a prolonged and vicious civil conflict as being very high.
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Almost of Thai People has known what happen in Thailand.
For a half of century, Thai people are under royal propaganda and one side communication by the royal media.
But after coup in 2006, they saw the mistaken royal activities which against democracy and their loved-government (who won the election in 2004 )
When Abhisit dissolved the parliament, Taksin’s supporters and The Red Shirt thought they can win next election again.
But they have to face the real absolute power groups in Thailand.
At least, we only pray for them. for Thai people.
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nice to see the “anti-Thaksin” crowd out in force
when criticising policies and peoples choices fails then fall back onto the “tactical enemy” created by Sondhi Lim
the military/elites discovered that Thaksin was able to use the authority of the Thai majority to begin a real challenge to the power of the military, the privy council and those standing over the law
now, they are panicking because the Thai majority have wakened and there are many that are not only supporting Thaksin but if and when necessary will take over the same democratic crusade
I think the time has arrived where any overt moves by the military/elites to derail reform are very risky for them
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“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack” -Nattawut
Nothing really ever change among the Red/Black Shirt leadership. Threats and more threats and violent intent and sowing hatred.
I am resigned to the reality of the Red/Black Shirt violent intentions . . . win or lose. Attack if they win. Attack if they lose.
Oh yes . . . Attack if they lose is what Vichai N. said. Because the Red Shirt rhetorics just boil with hatred.
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It is nice to think about another party other than DP winning.
Personally, I do not think it is a question of ‘what happens if PT wins.” Rather, it is a question of what happens if the unthinkable happens: Democrat Party lose?
(Its also pretty clear what’s going to happen if PT accidentally “wins”)
I know that a lot of discussion here get drag into the evil Thaksin and/or evil Abhisit debate. I am guilty of those too, back firmly by my dislike of all things DP.
But I would like to refocus the issue. From the beginning, the issue was truely never about TRT or Thaksin – both are just convenient scapegoat and boogeyman. That is not saying Thaksin is a good man – no, never that. He’s a business man, and no business man in Thailand gets rich unless he’s deep in the corruption game. He’s an ex-PM, and no PM in Thailand ever get to sit on that chair without paying many someone(s) off.
Let’s not talk about corruption as a deciding factor – face it: they are ALL corrupt, and all politically power hungry. They are politicians. The battlecry “corruption” in Thailand has always been the excuse, never the crucial cause – which is really sad, because corruption ran deep in Thailand. So deep it stinks.
At the heart of Thailand’s civil future is always the forward march of the democratic state side by side with a growing well-educated middle class. As the country grow wealthier, and as communication technology improves, status quo will change. How the polity deals with this change – that is the issue.
Since the aftermath of the Suchinda coup – that opportunity was there – waiting, just waiting for someone to come along to take it up. Many rich technocrats saw it (CP, Shinawatra, you name them) – that opening to change the balance of power from military to technocrats. Who took it, as we know. What happened after, we also know. What is left is how each of us choose to see, or not to see. To accept, or not to accept. To move forward, or to remain stuck in the past gleefully stabbing at a bogeyman. To fight for equal rights, justice, and opportunity for all, or to just sit back and let status quo remain.
This really is Democrat Party’s election to win.
The cards are stack for them. The court is prepared for them. The monies paid, support bought or coerced, favors traded.
But if DP loses? Hell will break lose in the background of M, M,and DP. Now, that’d be interesting to watch.
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I think this largely depends on Thaksin’s behaviour, should his party regain a majority. He’s had quite a bit of time to think about ‘what when wrong last time’, and he has made (a few) comments that indicate that he may have learned from past mistakes. If he can respect the bounds of office this time, I think PTP will go a full term without a hitch.
There will be a terrible temptation to try put the military under the thumb for his own protection though. He tried to install relatives before and (if we may interprete an unusually lengthy wait for royal assent followed by a sudden change in government plans as a “no”) failed, although the fate of HM is a wild card this time around and could change everything.
If Thaksin tries to grab the military (sooner), or hasn’t learned from his past mistakes and strives for total domination (later), we are looking at another coup. But I very much doubt that he would be allowed to walk away from that one.
The yellow shirts are pretty much finished thanks to the hijacking of the movement for unrelated (and in my opinion, ridiculous) issues and Sondhi’s alienation of basically everyone. It would take a couple of years of Thaksin at his worst for the movement to build strength to become a significant political force again. I doubt it will happen.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the royal succession though. And my money isn’t on the crown prince.
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Vichai N – 18
Coup De’tat is treason and the instigator is punishable by death in many countries so do you expect people will just sit back like a sheep when that happen?
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WLH,
“Wouldn’t it be a lot easier to hire some ex-Mossad agents to “disappear” Thaksin? Then let PT win and govern (thus avoiding a flashpoint for civil protest) and watch as their MPs slowly become like every other MP: petty, selfish, corrupt, bereft of ideals. Without Thaksin, PT becomes like BJT but bigger. Suddenly it’s 1999 again.”
And,, “Backroom deal: Thaksin and the army agree to let PT rule as long as Thaksin waits one year before returning, doesn’t meddle in military appointments, lets them run the South as before, and increases their budget 25%.”
Man, you know politics. That’s how things really roll.
Keep posting dude.
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Roger, # 8
Yes you are correct — 30 May 2012 is the date that the democrats and their backers fear most. With capable and experienced politicians like Sudarat, Chaturon, Prommin, Adisorn, and the rest coming back from five-year ban, the democrats don’t stand a chance. Even a coup against them will be suicidal.
However, don’t count on Newin and other turn-coats.
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Roger said Perhaps we have all missed the point of why the election was called in the first place?
Consider when the banned executive of the old TRT become eligible to run for office again because their 5 years is nearly up?
Ban is not up until middle of next year and an election has to be held before then as the term is only for four years so this does not seem relevant to the timing of an early election..
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Nuomi, that was a very good post. And politicians are the same in every country that I know of, it is not just Thailand.
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lol I think I deserve an explanation as to why my comment on this topic has been removed. Ain’t you guys been screaming that Thai people in Thailand should have more freedom of speech ? How about starting by giving a freedom of speech here in this site first, otherwise you have no ground to support what you’re trying to propose what we Thais should do in our country.
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Kate,
We actively discourage any single voice from monopolising New Mandala, especially with repetitive interventions. Like in any good seminar, we moderate discussion to ensure that different voices and perspectives are heard.
We have been running New Mandala for almost five years and this is our longstanding practice.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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“A …… win? But then what?”
More power struggle and blood spilling of course. The result will change nothing. Enjoy the party, …… while it lasts
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BP # 24
That seems to be the reason why the initial sentence for disqualified TRT politicians was a 5 years ban in 2007.
For they were forced out of the game not only at the following election a few months later (Dec. 2007), but for the next one 4 years later, too.
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Today BKKPost got this on their front page
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/241094/pressure-mounts-on-yingluck
I have a feeling that they will try to shoot Yingluck down before the election even.
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Vichai N @18
Ah Vichai, Perhaps you should ask yourself when did the hate start. Surely with the Amart/PAD hate Taksin campaign and then on to the Red Shirts. According to Buddhist principals when you give out hate you get hate back. When you give out love you get love back. Maybe its time for you to start loving the Red Shirts. After all they only want the something I presume you want, a better Thailand.
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For me the big question is not who will win or what will change right after the election.
Instead, the big What is What happens after HM passes? Will that historic event trigger reform or a an authoritarian backlash? I could see either taking place under PT or the Dems. There’s not a party or leader who will be able to stem the initial free-for-all.
I don’t think there is any way today to predict what the parties (short as they are on ideology) and the leaders (short as they are on, errr, leadership) will do tomorrow, when the entire political and social landscape gets redrawn.
Those who see Thaksin and company as progressive democratic reformers are, I think, fooling themselves. There’s a lot of hope, not much evidence. But we all love an underdog. Many red shirts are true underdogs, no matter what shirt they wear. I don’t think billionaires can be underdogs, only top dogs, bold, enterprising, vicious. It’s the nature of the pack for the weak to follow the strong, and for the strong to rule with sharp teeth and to claim the best meat for themselves. The weak are hoping that a morsel or two gets left for them. And the sad state of Thai society is how many the weak have become, and how desperate for a morsel.
The Dems are more like fat cats, and Mark himself is a pussycat, a house cat, aloof and spotless. Despite the shrill accusations, he’s no Idi Amin. The claws come out when needed, but otherwise the Dems are content to lounge on the windowsill, gazing out at the scenes below.
And with the master of the house ailing, survival instinct has kicked in.
What happens in the vacuum? Could any civilian government withstand the uncertainty and military shake-ups that follow? At that moment, the army will have a huge advantage. I doubt the people will mount much resistance to a coup– not one predicated on electoral wrangling but an unprecedented social and cultural catastrophe, as the military will call it, and as many citizens will agree it is.
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This election is coming to resemble the 1990 election in Burma more and more everyday. First, the totally out-of-touch Army decides that it can win an election. Then a woman heads up a party that looks to sweep the boards. When she does so the Army says. “Ha, ha… only fooling…” and pulls the rug out from under her winning party. Again. For the fourth time? Whether they use the kangaroo kourt system or their tracked vehicles makes little difference.
The question in my mind is… is that really going to happen? Is the Thai Army just like the Burmese Army? And if it does… with the Thais take it as the Burmese did? or will all of Thailand come to resemble Yala, Narathiwat, and Pattani? Neither nightmare seems at all palatable to me.
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New Mandala readers who want to see the reception of these thoughts in Thai can head over to Prachatai. They provide a summary translation of my original post and then a long list of comments follows. And there are comments here too.
Thanks to a long-time reader for pointing out the Prachatai translation.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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#31 Hate exists here because the spirit of the faith has long been systematically abused by those to whom the ‘love’ principle is nothing more than a blank check for mass exploitation. I don’t begrudge ordinary citizens some hate myself. All this ‘love’ nonsense has served such citizens very badly. Presumably, it is ‘love’ that shoots people in the back. It strikes me the victims are entitled to hate mafia, businessmen, politicians, uniformed people vote enforcers and goon squads. (Especially since we never really know which successionist/separatist group murdered who, and exactly who took economic advantage from it.) Such barbaric acts most certainly do not occur because ‘they’ want to ‘love’ us. Rather, they love the very idea of always looking for advantage, and are prepared to greatly disadvantage ordinary citizens who just happen to get in their way.
As politicians set themselves up as society’s agents in the legislative process, they would be well-advised to start showing some genuine respect for their electorate. Those who aspire to rule should try to act according to a few rules (instead of acting the eternal scofflaw), and stop blaming others for the ill-effects of their own duplicity. It is up to them to demonstrate moral conduct, if they wish to be respected.
It isn’t always practical to adhere to a supposed tenet of a faith that has been cynically exploited by self-proclaimed ‘big’ believers since time immemorial. I note that hate has long been very widespread here, even amongst monks – some of whom subscribe to the idea of shooting people in the back.
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Now comparing Aung san suu kyi to Thaksin’s sister. That’s a good one… Thanks, Had not heard that one, you have me cracking up
))
Also the notion that politicians around the world are the same as thai politicians, after people going to extreme lengths for the last 12 months to explain the specifics of the thai situation?!?! Why try to make any point if it’s the same everywhere. How about the people, are they the same everywhere too? The people, isn’t this what counts, rather than always focussing on the same big wigs? Naaah, probably doesn’t count…. Too bad!
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John, # 33
The situation in both countries is frighteningly similar but one posting in this forum complained that Yingluck should not / cannot be compared with ASSK even though both are popular figures now.
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Following a PT victory, it is becoming increasingly likely that the judiciary are going to throw Yingluck in jail on any trumped up charge they can invent. She will then probably be allowed to make bail and do a runner like her older brother to Dubai.
However, does this really solve anything for the amart? There will still be a PT near majority in parliament (Bangkok Pundit predicts from the opinion polls that PT will only end up maybe a half dozen to a dozen votes shy of a true majority). In addition, the Dems, BJT and the rest of the opposition will have to contend with the sympathy for “the lady” (same as with ASSK in Burma), combined with the still pent-up Red Shirt rage against double standards. It could get quite messy. I am not advising any friends or family members to visit Thailand in July.
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“However, does this really solve anything for the amart? ”
I really don’t care about the amaat. Does this really solve anything for the people of Thailand.
Five years ago the Seven Dwarves (Prem, Sarayut, et al. you name them) locked Dracula in his coffin, but he morphed in his undead sleep therein into Snow White, and now on awakening will pickup right where he/she/it/they left off.
If the dwarves and their backers had foregone the tracked vehicles and the smash and grab at power and stuck to politics as they should have Thaksin would be being voted out by now, and good riddance to bad rubbish, everyone would be saying.
But the problem is, you see, that they cannot play politics because their interests are diametrically opposed to those of the people of Thailand, so they can never be elected, so they always must coup.
There has to be a ‘last time’. Why not 2006?
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In looking at the current state of political play in Thailand we overlook small details. it is sometimes small detauils that matter. Many English language discussion sites are fixated with the forthcoming elections as if it were an even contest between two (uneven) players. This ignores the fact that over the past five years most of the more competent political opponents have either been failed by the courts and on a five year ban which continues until middle of next year, or imprisoned for trifling matters or fabricated legal cases. But it is the street talk, the body language, the media and elite doublespeak, and the various ambiguities that we should observe closely. As in chaos theory, small nuances can lead to massive implications, rendering outcomes and long-term political predictions impossible. Who wins the elections is increasingly less important than who will not lose. We know that the knives are out for Phue Thai to fail through discrediting the red shirts and opposition members of parliament before the election takes place. The “old tricks” of the amaat worked well last two times, but this time the amaat regime has to be a little more wary given its appalling human rights record. The amaat/royalists are riding high again, just as they did pre-TRT 2001, but they are extremely nervous.
Makawan Bridge bomb last week in front of PAD group was planted to create the start of chaos. PAD has warned to expect something to happen before the 3rd July. The “multicolours” (aka “Yellow”) are trying to find basis to fail Yingluck (raising anything and everything, from an unregistered marriage to Thaksin’s early financial dealings). The ludicrous “destroying Monarchy” (Lom Jao) Mind Map of Sansern’s has now been reinvigorated from last year. Dr Sutachai Yinprasert threatened legal action against Sansern, Abhisit and Suthep over the fabrication of this “map” – which involves his name among many others. Sansern backed down in March saying that it was indeed fabricated and involving many hands but comes out again now saying that it is “real” after all! “About face” positioning is nothing to the amaat and their political dependents. Sutachai’s book “A historical stream of democracy in Thailand” (saithaan’prawatsaat prachaa’thipatai’thai) which came out in 2009 needs translating/reviewing for readers (Craig?).
Surachai “Sae Dan”, currently in prison, has now been charged with another case of LM from an incident in the north; he says that there is indeed a serious attempt to try and fail the elections and that we should not be surprised because the whole thing was planned way back. But even assuming elections go ahead, it will be hard for the democracy movement to reclaim terra firma if Phue Thai lose (even they are shown to have a decent lead right now) because they will have no legitimate basis to cry foul, unless of course they can prove (and to whom?) that there was election cheating and ballot rigging. An excess of 6.2 million ballot papers have been printed and of course overseas voting already closed…
Another danger is that by coming out now in electioneering mode all regional red shirt leaders have exposed themselves to the regime. They are now visible. An influential “hand” has now given the nod that Phue Thai should be failed; the army and their judicial partners will handle that matter in due course. Frankly, given this scenario, it may take many years again before the red shirt/pro-democracy movement can move the democratic process forward. The amaat must surely not lose the elections; this is part of a game plan set way back. It follows chaos theory and the continuing ripples from the centre. The elections are staged by the amaat regime to show to the world that the regime is serious about electoral democracy. The stakes are indeed dangerously high. Anything can, and probably will happen.
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#41
I’m looking at a full car transporter of imported quality motors. BMW, Audi, Nissan, poshe. Several softtopped sports models. Now we all know that this business operates in a perpetual grey area in which some government officials take regular pay-offs, and just occasionally they throw an impoundment bone to the media gutter.
So they are opening a new imported car delership. What splendid timing! Back in the last lot of elections I saw 3 transporter loads of Porsches arrive.
Frankly, I think you New Mandala folks greatly underestimate the ability of Thaksin to win over certain crucial amaat with financial inducements. Amaat have lived with Thaksin before, and they will again. Thaksin is undoubtedly amaat himself. The pakama stuff is just political posturing. Sure he has pissed some key people off big time with his relentless efforts to monopolise anything profitable that moves, but their anger really reflects the reality that they are unhappy with him moving in on their time-honored turf.
Against that background it’s obvious that Thaksin just treats the redshirts as a means to get what he wants, and he doesn’t begrudge making a few of them slightly rich or putting a load more in his debt along the way. They think they are exploiting him, but he is far more experienced in exploitation than they are.This means that nothing really meaningful will come from either a Shinawatra government or a government lead by his opponents. That has been the way ever since 1932 and nothing has really changed. The only real difference is that the general population are now much more subject to violence and the dire economic consequences of such crass local populism. The object is supposed to be to topple the amaat, but it would probably be more accate to view it as twisting their arms into accepting the Shinawatras as the country’s top economic dogs. However, they do stand to be recompensed for their loss of turf.
It’s already a certainty that NM readers will soon be very disillusioned by any likely election result or coup scenario.
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In a political system with no real checks and balances, the army is the last unbalanced check. I doubt 2006 will be the last.
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#43 Just the one. I think you forgot several more. For just a start you forgot the RTP. You also forgot the ever active (and by NO means down-and-out) Gen. **** faction of the RTA. Coups can still take us either way, and neither side has any real history of benevolence.
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I was in Bangkok during the February 1991 coup d’etat; the first indication that something dodgy was going on (it was Saturday morning) was when EVERY TV channel started showing the national flag, playing martial music and urging viewers to “stand by for an important announcement”. Next time around the notification will probably be by SMS.
Suchinda was the right man in the right place but at least 50 years too late. He went into his Brer Rabbit routine of “please don’t throw me in the briar patch, I don’t want to be prime minister” but that was only an act to ensure that even the dimmest of his underlings got the message about what he really wanted. Eventually he was appointed, but lasted barely 6 weeks. No longer a job that military service prepares you for. Thank God for Anand Panyarachun.
This time around? Hard to see a stable government emerging from the election. It’s a pity there’s no leftish party that could truly represents the phrai as a coalition partner. One side trying to buy them off with populist largesse and the other with appeals to be happy in a sufficiency economy doesn’t hold out much hope. If I were a Thai I’d be tempted to vote for the monkey. At least you might get a banana.
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“It’s a pity there’s no leftish party that could truly represents the phrai as a coalition partner. ”
That’s the order of business on the 4th of July… independence day, Thai style.
No one can expect this one election to change every|anything, but this election is not about Thaksin… its about the Thai Army and whether they can be tossed out of power.
The mission for the ‘rest of the world’, should they accept it, is to remember the egregious ‘error’ they made in according the Burmese junta legitimacy after the election of 1990 left The Lady at the head of peoples’ government elected by a landslide there. They need not to repeat that error again and recognize another coup, whether by tank in the courtyard or court in the tank in Thailand, and to stand by the government elected by the people instead. Of course all the governments of ‘rest of the world’ are as corrupt as Thailand at this point, with US/NATO aggression in Afghanistan and Libya and 30 US senators backing Netanyahu’s refusal to return to the 1967 borders in Israel. So the Thais are going to have to do it alone. Unlike Americans and Europeans, they seem up to the task.
A solid left (no -ish… sounds like squish) party can be built bottom up to take control next time around. The essential thing is not a candidate but a platform, an agenda.
If a peoples’ party could be built ground up and become a part of the next government, apres-Shinawat, people world wide would regard it as a mushroom, an apparition which sprung up overnight. And they’d be right
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“You also forgot the ever active (and by NO means down-and-out) Gen. **** faction of the RTA. ”
Please, Name, if you’ve got something to say, just say it. I think we can safely say the name ****. I’ve got a fair idea who you mean but I can’t be 100 percent sure and I think our discourse here would be improved by not resorting to codes except where absolutely necessary.
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John Francis Lee – 46
If a peoples’ party could be built ground up and become a part of the next government, apres-Shinawat, people world wide would regard it as a mushroom, an apparition which sprung up overnight. And they’d be right.
One of my earliest comments, (here or elsewhere I can’t remember), was on the mistake by some of the left in supporting a pro-Thaksin movement. It concerned what I suspected those supporters hoped to get out of such support.
My claim was that they saw an opportunity in what came after Thaksin or in the chaos that could be produced. To refute their view I compared it with the German Communist party in the 1930s who also had a similar policy except this time it was ‘after Hitler it will be our turn’. The leader of the German Communist Party, Ernst Thälmann, died in a concentration camp in 1944 after eleven years in prison.
Nice to see John Francis Lee confirming my suspicions.
The only enjoyable part of a Thaksin return would be waiting a year or so and then looking at some of the red faces of those that have gone along with that idea. Unfortunately most here on NM won’t be having to live with the mistake. As May 2010 proves and the old song says –
It’s the same the whole world over,
It’s the poor wot gets the blame,
It’s the rich wot gets the gravy.
Ain’t it all a bleedin’ shame?
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#47 referring to #43 QUOTE Just the one. I think you forgot several more. For just a start you forgot the RTP. You also forgot the ever active (and by NO means down-and-out) Gen. **** faction of the RTA. Coups can still take us either way, and neither side has any real history of benevolence.UNQUOTE
#47 Q Please, Name, if you’ve got something to say, just say it. UQ
Said it already. My comment indicates that I think that the RTA cannot be blamed alone. Old criminal rivalries between the RTA & RTP are far from over. Indeed, the turf war is intensifying as the all-important succession draws ever nearer. My comment also indicates that the RTA is definitely not just one faction. (Would you care to dispute that ancient fact?) I used the word ‘several’ to indicate a lot more than one or two …. or three. So obviously that also indicates that this is not even as simple as a divided RTA Vs a divided RTP. Even one overblown RTA retiree cannot take all the rap. I make no apologies if this further confuses you as to which side I’m on. One would be daft to take sides in a conflict that was clearly never about the welfare of the majority. For every asterisk in the entrenched elite, there is yet another asterisk in the aspiring elite.
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Reference #49: One of the reasons why the RTA is not a united force and factional infighting is increasing is the fact that there are far too many generals.
Prior to 1949 there was an Army Officer Cadet School that offered two main courses: a two-year syllabus of military training intended primarily for infantry and cavalry officers, and a four-year syllabus which combined military training with an engineering degree intended primarily for engineer and artillery officers. Two of the more prominent graduates were General Prem Tinsulanonda, who completed the four-year syllabus in 1941, and General Arthit Kamlangwek, who completed the two-year syllabus in 1944.
In 1949 the cadet school became the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy (CRMA), offering a five-year syllabus which combined military training with a bachelor degree. The first class, known as CRMA Class 1, consisted of just 29 cadets who graduated in 1954. Among them were Generals Sunthorn Kongsompong and Chavalit Yongchaiyudh. The fifth class, the Class 5 of 1991 coup d’etat fame (notoriety?), consisted of 146 cadets, of whom around one-third went into the police force (there being no separate police academy at the time). Among them was General Suchinda Kraprayoon, one of Thailand’s less successful ex-military prime ministers.
The point is that Class 5 was small enough to give every graduate a luctrative command appointment. That is no longer the case. The current army commander, General Prayut Chanocha, was only one of the 235 members of CRMA Class 23. The majority of his classmates can be expected to serve until age 60 and be promoted major general at age 55, but only a minority will ever occupy genuine command appointments, while the opportunities open to those in Classes 24 and 25 are few indeed, given the fact that senior command tenure is usually around three years.
In due course General Prayut will probably hand over to one of the 284 members of Class 26, leaving 283 out of the running and all of Classes 285 and 286 with very limited prospects for advancement, and the prospects of subsequent classes can only get worse. Most will end up as “military experts attached to Army HQ”, or as the Bangkok Post used to put it, “commanding generals at large”.
So nowadays there is a small proportion of generals in real command positions and a very large (and growing) proportion who aren’t but would like to be. It is rumoured that Thaksin’s agents are actively recruiting a “second eleven” of watermelon generals who will be promoted to fill the key command appointments should Phuea Thai come to power. In these circumstances, getting the broad-based support necessary to stage a successful coup d’etat is becoming inceasingly difficult. Interesting times indeed.
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WLH “Wouldn’t it be a lot easier to hire some ex-Mossad agents to ‘disappear’ Thaksin? ”
This must be under consideration as highly cost effective solution. Thaksin seems to have developed a number of business disputes while abroad, including with the Emirati lawyer, to act as credible camouflage and there is always the possibly of a love triangle since he reverted to bachelor status. Without him PT would devour itself pretty quickly and Yingluck would soon look like a newly graduated teacher from a white middle class home trying to keep order in a classroom in a bad ass inner city black neighborhood.
Any compromise that gives Yingluck the premiership cannot be acceptable to the powerful forces against Thaksin. Even if she is obliged to agree not amnesty her brother to get the job, She only has to limp through about 9 months and then she can call a snap election for after 31 May 2012 so the TRT old guard can stand in it and hope to give PT an absolute majority
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