The foreign editor of The Australian, Greg Sheridan, has weighed in to the debate about Australian engagement with Burma. His full analysis is available here. Sheridan argues, among other things, that:
As the only Western nation in the Southeast Asian region, and as a close ally of the US, Australia has an important role. Ours is certainly smaller than that of Burma’s big Southeast Asian neighbours or China or India. Nonetheless, it’s important.
Over at The Interpreter, long-time Burma watcher Andrew Selth provides a more expansive treatment of Burma’s current politics. Selth suggests that:
It is always difficult to discern what is in the minds of Burma’s leaders, but few of their decisions lend themselves to simple explanations. Most seem to reflect consideration of a range of complex issues. One possible reason for the more nuanced policies emanating from Naypyidaw that has not received much attention to date is that Burma is seeking to satisfy certain expectations expressed by ASEAN, in order to assume the chairmanship of the Association in 2014.
Thoughts from New Mandala readers about these lines of argument are, as ever, very welcome.
I’ve always thought the 2014 ASEAN chair was the best leverage the international community had to encourage political reform in Myanmar. I don’t see too many other options really, short of removing sanctions.
Countries like Australia will need to tread carefully to capitalise on this opportunity. Push too hard and the Myanmar government may decide it’s not worth it, but at the same time it shouldn’t be given a free ride. It would be wise to keep the discussions/negotiations as low key as possible, in my opinion.
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The legitimacy for the ASEAN 2014 chair argument is interesting, but what happens after 2014? The cerebral atmosphere generated by Selth’s article leads one to the conclusion that the Junta will revert to its despicable ways! I think a lot more needs to be known about Thein Sein.
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*** erratum: not that it has really moved much from its despicable ways, but reverts to what it was before where it has moved to at present.
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When U Thant was the SG of the UN. He managed to deflect, successfully all the negative aspects on then Burma Government of Ne Win/BSPP.
Similarly atrocious and trigger happy nature as this present regime were, let to slide by the west under the “Laissez-Faire” approach with rare exposé of Ne Win as ‘enigmatic’ ‘odd’ etc., yet accepted as a dignified Head of a State (HoS) every where.
Truly undeserving, tongue in cheek, dignity accorded to Ne Win and his BSPP/Military Cohorts.
U Thant however in private treated Ne Win with unspeakable disdain. A well know historical fact, thus incurring Ne Win, a true megalomaniac, personal grudge.
The dead of U Thant and the subsequent funeral arrangements allowed & disallowed by Ne Win sparked the important students revolt at the RASU that result in the well known facts. One of which is ‘propelling Daw AUng San Suu Kyi’ to the forefront as an opposition leader with “Democracy” as her banner.
Subsequent bad choices that she made that again show absolute disrespect to the power that be now, has led Myanmar to the present quagmire.
The reasons to these regurgitates:
1) No Burmese especially the HoS will ever endure disrespect especially by their own, without consequences, as proof is continuing Than Shwe’s personal treatment of anything DASSK’s. To a certain extend Khin Nyunt.
2) Indignities inflicted by any none Burmese will be endured until such time, as strengthened enough to be ‘defiance and intransigent’. In the process the HoS will embrace even the devil.
AUng San embracing the Fascist and again The British as historical proves is now being repeated in N.Korea and to a certain extent China.
The approach, to Myanmar should be, is well suggested in New Mandala’s tongue in cheek article on Indonesia support.
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/08/03/indonesia-and-burma-strong-and-dignified-states/
The indignity shown to this country’s HoS resulting in the unspeakable suffering of the citizenry must be reversed and revised.
The willingness of this present Government to foray to the international forum/ASEAN chairmanship must not be met with past anti SPDC crowd’s apathy.
Continuing these well documented indignities, in the past similar “jump this hoop” or “Carrot and stick” approach will mean continuing “circle the wagon” mentality of this regime.
There are plenty of positive evidences, that will justify a “dignified” engagement.
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ASEAN is bending over backwards to accommodate Burma. Any excuse will do. They have Jim Webb on side not to mention certain experts.
Andrew Selth makes these salient points that the regime habitually turns into a vicious circle.
Another mass protest in Burma, for example, prompting yet another military crackdown, would be hard for the Association (ASEAN) to ignore. An escalation of the current counter-insurgency campaigns against armed ethnic groups and a renewed flood of refugees across Burma’s borders would also be major obstacles. And there is still Naypyidaw’s problematic relationship with Pyongyang, with its associated claims of ballistic missile and nuclear weapons cooperation.
‘Disciplined democracy’ is being tested by the farmers of the Delta in this report here. Can we envisage the new hybrid regime overseeing fair play and rule of law in this very important issue of land confiscation taking place not just in the Delta but in Mon State too? How about forced labor, union rights and industrial dispute? No way so long as the fox continues to be in charge of the hen house.
Unless these day to day bread and butter (rice and oil) issues rightly become a priority, and not the USDP’s exclusive permit to import new cars (to print money) or gold mining rights in Kachin State for the Chinese and their cronies, there’s no way out of this miserable vortex.
Of course plan B’s overarching concerns over dignity that a ‘HoS’ deserves, denied by the ‘useless careless west’ to Than Shwe but enjoyed by Ne Win before the days of the Internet and globalisation, are bound to be shared by many Burmese chauvinists who feel their country’s name has been sullied and its flag dragged in the mud so often, regardless of who made it happen in the first place.
They want to have their cake and eat it. And some of us seem to want ‘pragmatism’ stretch all the way. It must be someone else’s fault to wit the West mishandling the whole thing. So let’s all join in watering the proverbial poison plant.
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I’ve had a hard time trying to understanding the comments contributed by the readers. I wonder how the ordinary burmese readers will even appreciate the serious discussions going on about them in New Mandala. If New Mandala publish a burmese version would be a great idea.
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Great idea Aung. Coincidentally, I was having a conversation with a friend about this yesterday. Any plans for a Burmese language version, Nich?
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“Of course plan B’s overarching concerns over dignity that a ‘HoS’ deserves, denied by the ‘useless careless west’ to Than Shwe but enjoyed by Ne Win before the days of the Internet and globalisation, are bound to be shared by many Burmese chauvinists who feel their country’s name has been sullied and its flag dragged in the mud so often, regardless of who made it happen in the first place. ”
Ko Moe Aung
Just one mistake you made in this sweeping Man Friday statement.
…who know (not feel, mind you) their country’s name has been sullied…
‘Chauvinist’ for the citizenry is always better than a sell out to a host country.
And I thought you believe in “The change must come from within”!
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plan B,
So hopelessly mixed up in your mind between one’s love for one’s country and ‘my country right or wrong’ mindset, I despair for you.
I guess, like the generals, you reckon you have a monopoly on patriotism. They still believe only they can run the country properly and look where we are after nearly half a century of military rule in one form or another. In deep proverbial, and all the neighbors having overtaken us by a million miles, mocking privately among themselves and taking advantage of us. Who put us in this situation? Like in our old expression “drifting in a river of other people’s spit”.
Change must and will come from within, not because of people like you bemoaning and complaining the ‘west useless careless’ policy ad infinitum ad nauseam, looking to outsiders for any tangible progress which you lot has accused ASSK of all along with not a hint of irony.
Remove the cause, not ineffective palliative measures. The Burmese patient needs radical excision of the cancer of military rule that is gnawing at the heart. Not band-aid and balms. And we must do it ourselves.
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I don’t understand why there is a problem with Myanmar being chair of ASEAN, when it has been held by Vietnam and Laos, both of which are totalitarian communist dictatorships with poor human rights records.
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aggadassavin,
a) First, Burma’s human rights violations are an ongoing concern, especially because it’s relentless and against the minorities near genocidal. The abuse is blatant and widespread, all well publicized too, not least the presence of refugee camps over the Thai border, like they are Asia’s Palestinians .
Unlike Vietnam or Laos, or China for that matter, the abuse is not limited, sporadic or behind the scenes. Public opinion matters in the West and even in ASEAN member states where they have an electorate they cannot blithely ignore. What’s more ASEAN wants to remain in the good books of the US.
ASEAN member states after all have signed up to all the good ethical principles worthy of any respectable regional grouping in the world. The rhetoric must have at least some bearing on practice. The West on the other hand must seize the moral high ground at all times.
b) Secondly the geopolitical considerations that are peculiar to Burma. It is right smack between India and China, with very significant and enduring Chinese patronage and protection, contributing to its geostrategic aims which poses a real dilemma for the West and limits the options for intervention.
Witness the charm offensive launched by the ‘new’ Burmese govt wooing ASSK , relaxing press censorship, lifting the ban on Internet websites etc., all in aid of
a) securing the Chair of ASEAN and
b) lifting of the sanctions.
The $64,000 question is what happens after they have achieved their goals. If the track record of the ruling generals is anything to go by, as soon as the people try and push this ‘disciplined democracy’ a little harder with renewed confidence , the mask is all too likely to slip, reverting to their old habits of zero tolerance to dissent and pluralism.
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Moe Aung,
The reason why China has been able to realise its geostrategic aims in Myanmar is a direct consequence of sanctions. The reason why the generals turned to China is because European and American sanctions gave them no choice.
The Americans and the Europeans need to decide whether they want to act in the interests of the well-being of all the Myanmar people, rather than just one of them.
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“The $64,000 question is what happens after they have achieved their goals. If the track record of the ruling generals is anything to go by, as soon as the people try and push this ‘disciplined democracy’ a little harder with renewed confidence , the mask is all too likely to slip, reverting to their old habits of zero tolerance to dissent and pluralism.”
Fear of the future justify:
1) The present ongoing infliction by the knowing west of this useless careless nature of, deprivation of the citizenry.
2) To show the disapproval of their unsupported and unelected government!
Hmm
Ko Moe Aung
What if the generals get what they want and resort to the worst you have described.
Re slapping the complete present sanctions and all the useless careless accouterments can still be done easily!
What has the west got to loose beside proving the citizenry their sincerity even for that short period?
On the other hand you and the yahoos, for purely vindictive purpose rabidly support the west that
1st
‘Sanctions does not hurt the ordinary citizenry’ then
when the first failed
‘Sanction hurt the generals more’ lies.
Has more to loose.
But not more than the citizenry of Myanmar.
Can always say “I told you so”, Eh.
Just watch how the generals play the west:
1) By being politely intransigent, so that sanction remain in place, yet win the sympathy of ASEAN members and high lighting the well known ‘Ugly American’ phenomena, and continue on with their business as usual co-atrocity on the weaken citizenry while blaming the west.
2) Win more brownie point with Uncle Wen and brother Kim who are actually their reliable benefactors in the foreseeable future.
3) Attain ASEAN Chairmanship 2º to approval votes from Vietnam, Indonesia etc and even Thailand.
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aggadassavin,
It’s a nice illusion to think the US & EU would act in the interests of one person, albeit someone who still represents the majority of the people and not by coercion or sleight of hand, or those of an entire nation.
Yes, we hear the analogy to Cuba all the time. Granted China’s role is crucial both in the UNSC and across the border, only these days it’s wearing a bit thin since ASEAN, Russia, India and both Koreas have all been important players, not least Singapore and Thailand among them. The isolation argument does not hold water anymore as in Ne Win’s days when the isolation was self-imposed. The geostrategic issues apply to all although it exercises the US the most as it poses a real challenge to its dominance in today’s world.
The Americans and Europeans will always have an agenda of their own. And they’ve been itching for Burma to join the new world order, not that Burma on its part is uninterested, there’s China’s shining example .
The sticking point unfortunately remains relentless repression, not least the denial of the presence of 2000 prisoners of conscience and renewed conflict with the minorities. Granted the ‘new improved’ regime is going through the motions of extending an olive branch to ASSK and relaxing its iron rule, the West promptly following the cue eyeing on one of the world’s largest remaining relatively untapped markets for them.
Engagement requires some kind of positive response, some quid pro quo, or it becomes appeasement. ASSK’s engagement with the generals is a case in point, now the wall seems to have ears all of a sudden when they want something in return. The generals are consummate players staying ahead and on top of the game. You underestimate them at your peril.
We are a nation in a hurry both the rulers and the ruled, I can assure you. There are more ways than one to skin a cat. All options must be on the table.
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Direct consequence of sanctions? Geographical proximity, especially a land border with China, as well as her resources to bear and time spent engaging the regime in cuddles, should count for something more one would think.
There are two or more sides to the sanctions issue and while a case can certainly be made that sanctions have hurt ordinary people in ways, aren’t other more focused ones (military equipment, dual use technologies, visa restrictions, etc) useful or at any rate have forced an annoying if minor diversion of assets to Dubai. That there would be an influx of outside officials and traders less concerned with how odious their new business dinner companions are is a given. Trade is not something utterly sacrosanct, needed to be placed on a pedestal above political considerations for the greater common good. Part of being sovereign means one’s leaders (and however much input the citizenry has in such policy) do not have to trade with those they do not wish to. The current sanctions do not exist for the interest of just one person. Please also consider the interests of those political prisoners in the jails, those in IDP camps along the borders, those whose land was recently confiscated in Mon State, those soon to get an unwanted rush of water near Myitsone, and the list goes on. Of course Western countries could drop all sanctions and, indeed, offer Yangon a much wider array of weaponry, albeit more expensive than than China can, and presto, some magical “influence” might ensue. Perhaps even a UN vote or two by Burma for the Americans and Europeans…dare to dream.
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plan B,
If the scales were to fall from your eyes, you just might see plenty of evidence that I am no fan of the West and their new world order.
And I am not concerned exclusively and obsessively with the sanctions like you, although I’m sure you’ve heard the bad news that Congress has approved extending them for another year. So more foam around your overexcited mouth I should imagine.
Please do not kid yourself that ASEAN members behave as they do out of sympathy or love for Burma. It’s purely business, and not about East vs West. To them the ‘Ugly American’ is as relevant as the Cold War it harks back to. Kim is more likely to see it as ‘them and us’ than even Wen when China’s fortunes are hard to disentangle from those of the US despite the good old capitalist competition between the two. No wars among the capitalist powers since 1945, remember? Only in the Third World, gainfully testing out their hardware backing one party or another.
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Yet the Marxist, Leninist, Maoist based archaic hatred inspired, never proven to work, one size fit all, assumption continue—
facts:
All Myanmar government since, and even blf Jan 4 1948 is the 2º result of direct and indirect response to interferences of the west and the Chinese.
From the quelling of the communists, supported by mainly the Chinese white or Red, to present 30 years of useless careless policy of relentless vilification, as well as sanctions, the former make Ne Win to be Ne Win and the latter now the generals to be the generals, ironically, again under the Chinese support.
All proven here @ New Mandala per Ko Hla Oo multiple exposé and the author of the present topic Andrew Seth article here:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6479/is_3_30/ai_n31178685/pg_4/?tag=content;col1
Yet the main cause, the useless careless interferences is ignored, in favor of focusing on the villains that were created by the very west and the Chinese,
Might have been a great arm chair discussion if not for the plight of the citizenry that has almost never mentioned lest discussed.
As long as the 50 millions+ citizenry undeserving plight of this unique country that bare no resemblance to any others, is not made clear and dealt with accordingly, any none applicable policy of the west will make present Myanmar a continuing Hell Hole for the citizenry.
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“Marxist, Leninist, Maoist based archaic…” must be the ultimate abuse you could hurl at me I guess. The old chestnut Reds under the bed, like ASSK was accused early on by the regime at the instigation of Aung Gyi. Indicative of desperation and bankruptcy of ideas.
Selfish greedy right wing fascists need nobody’s creation or help to behave as they do, and yes, they are good at constantly seeing enemies (‘internal and external destructive elements’), real or imagined, since they are so paranoid about losing their grip on power which they’ve managed to grab for themselves by hook or by crook.
Crocodile tears for the ‘plight of the citizenry’ and alleging others of ignoring it as if all the generals needed was a pat on the back and economic support just ain’t gonna wash.
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1) Crocodile tears for the ‘plight of the citizenry’
2) Alleging others of ignoring it
3) As if all the generals needed was a pat on the back and economic support.
Proof please.
1) The dying and the slowly dying from deprivation of education and economic among the most vulnerable will refute your baseless, labeling well. You can find proof for the here in New Mandala.
2) For your info. not “alleging” but “accusing” Certainly will not have difficulty finding in New Mandala as well.
3) That is how you and your ilks see lifting sanction as. Another proof of ‘Fixation’ on generals and forget about the real victims the citizenry.
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plan B,
Yeah, right. The generals have nothing to do with the real victims. Whose victims? Who preys on them? It must be the ‘useless careless west’. Is this what’s known as fuzzy logic? Cool, nay, wicked!
The citizenry must be too stupid to realise it’s the Western sanctions and not military misrule that keeps them on the lowest plane of human existence whilst at the same time the rulers and their cronies have joined the ranks of $ billionaires. Don’t they recognise a paradise on earth when they see one being created? I guess they ain’t letting the riff raff in.
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Victims. villain, all the V’s but no victors.
If villains are defined by their villainy than the generals wins hands down.
Plenty described here and repeatedly so @ New Mandala.
Never given the benefit of Moe Aung’s “ad infinitum”et “ad nauseum”.
How about the well know villainy of the west’s policy that not only effect the intended but never even alluded to “the unintended”?
There will never be victors, knowing well what the generals, Daw Aung San Suu as well as yourself will be doing, having Burmese blood running in your vein!
Confirmed here again the ill conceived, useless careless Sanctions have been for the benefit of Daw Aung San San Kyi.
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/06/23/disparate-sanctions-us-sanctions-north-korea-and-burma/
So are the supporters of the villains, and their villainy, villains as well?
“He that is not with me is against me; and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.”
KJB Matt. 12:30.
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Since you’re getting all biblical on us Plan B, how about “By their fruits you will know them”? I’d say most people would agree that the Republican era of China was one of the worst periods in Chinese history, or at least recent Chinese history. A Kachin friend recently pointed out to me that the percentage spent on education during that era in China is roughly what the generals in Burma are spending now. In both cases, it is a shamefully small amount. I sure you’ll find some way to try to blame it on the villains in the West, and while they might in some way be to blame for the overall amount, the percentage spent of the overall national budget spent on education is purely the generals’ choice.
“In their council let me never set foot, their assembly my presence shun. For in their fury they slaughtered men, at their pleasure they tore down ramparts. Cursed be their fury so fierce.” Genesis 49:6-7 Robert Alter’s translation.
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aiontay
The origin of all these info, with wily, almost hidden “disclaimer”
http://www.senate.gov/general/search/search_cfm.cfm?q=turnell&x=9&y=11&site=default_collection&num=10&filter=0
and repeated by all others:
‘nobody truly know, the exact income or expenditures of anything, within Myanmar due to the lack of or availability of records’.
ALL present Myanmar’s expenditures in everything is just GUESSTIMATE!
Whom you believe make you the supporter of that party assertions/villainy.
Yet reports/propaganda exists in print, roughly translate as:
“The record of advancement during the government of Tamadaw.” (1988 – 31.12. 2008) 412 pages.
Readily available in AVA book store on Sule Pagoda Road, Yangon.
If the government is to be trusted, then it will make ALL the guesstimates appear ridiculous just by looking at the salaries of 2 aspects: # of teachers, and others related to the education and Healthcare.
The conventional wisdom will dictate that:
The actual expenditure, in every aspects towards citizenry’s well beings, is more than every anti generals alleged and definitely less than the generals might like to claim.
Plainly, NOT ENOUGH even by this present government own admission, % or otherwise.
Plenty articles here.
http://www.mizzima.com/
Myanmar has always needed help in Education, Healthcare as well as other supports, even in the best of time. Available even during equally atrocious Ne Win’s era.
Sanctions terminated almost every aspects for 1 generation of Myanmar citizenry.
Will you or anyone care to Guesstimate so boldly, what % of that, contribute to further the degradation of citizenry Education and Healthcare and all related tragedies as did for vilifying purpose?
Righteously curse the generals however let’s not ignore the compounded sufferings imposed on the citizenry.
Re-litigating all the false info out there, that neglect the plight of victims of this tragic episode, becoming even more tragic with continuing villainy from all sides.
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Sanction hurts!
Its not!
Another never ending argument with flowery words which is not suitable for the people with little English like me.
Is sanction really hurts?
Let me breakdown this down in simple equations.
Who control most of the mega businesses and export sector in Burma?
Junta and its cronies.
So, does sanction hurts ordinary people?
No.
Does all businesses and production processes employ Burmese citizens which gives them some opportunities?
Yes.
So, does sanction hurts ordinary people?
Yes.
Does the wealth of junta and its cronies dripping back to its citizens?
No.
So, does sanction needed to be in place?
Yes.
Does sanction effective?
No.
Does Burma needs engagement?
Yes.
So, does sanction should be in place?
No.
I believed that this problem would not go away as long as the major players in Burma issue keep concentrating on ‘what happening’ instead of trying to know ‘why things are happening that way’.
However, I do not expect anyone would listen to me.
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do the jailed victims of the MI purge in 2004 meet the definition of ‘political prisoners’ ? if not, why not?
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@ aggadassavin
No offence but I believed you better ask whether those MIs meet the definition of your own phrase, ‘jailed victims’, first.
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@24
Myanmar = The sums of 1,2,&3.
1) 50+ millions of humanity/Citizenry ( Karen, Chin as well as other ethnicity) Yes, ALL the political prisoners as well.
2) Unelected government!
3) INCOMPETENT opposition!
Using Political prisoners and the atrocities against selective ethnic groups, conveniently to make the case for sanction while neglecting the rest of the 50+millions no longer wash.
“Who control most of the mega businesses and export sector in Burma?
Junta and its cronies.
So, does sanction hurts ordinary people?
No.”
At least another admission of the generals and cronies doing well.
Need I say any more about the incompetency of opposition.
Junta doing well and ordinary people is not hurting.
Hmm
Twisted logic imply Junta= Ordinary people.
@26
“whether those MIs meet the definition of your own phrase, ‘jailed victims’, first.”
ALL Myanmar citizenry is currently unwitting victims of # 2 and the political prisoners are the faults of #2 and #3.
Please do not EVER equate the plight of the citizenry with the misfortune of the resulting incompetent opposition.
I did see why sanction is any way justifiable in Myanmar case.
At this point the only case one can make is:
“If not for sanction the generals might behave even worst.”
Then one will still have nothing to refute:
“Sanction hurts the whole country”
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Win,
You can safely say those MIs are victims of a purge and they are in jail.
Arguably they can be classed as political prisoners according to Amnesty’s definition of prisoners of conscience, see other status. Interesting their brother officers in parliament were willing and prepared to take up their cause. Not sure which one it was Tallyrand or de Tocqueville who said, “a reforming govt is at its most vulnerable”. Even a bogus glasnost & perestroika can potentially unravel the whole thing.
As for sanctions, plan B’s statistical evidence or the lack of it is neither here nor there. Burma’s govt has never known such wealth in its own coffers as in recent times. Offshore gas syphoned off to foreign markets continues to be a gold mine (tax collection has never been an efficient part of the bureaucratic machine in our history). Nor have we known $ billionaires in the past. So things are most definitely on the up for some. Why then does it not trickle down to public sector services such as health, education and transport? It’s the political will, stupid! Aid shouldn’t come into it to a crucial degree as plan B alleges. I bet he knows.
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Thanks for your replies, guys.
I wish I could reply to you but chose not to because of my usual trouble with language part.
However, I would be more than happy to discuss about these things in Burmese if you do not mind. For that reason, you are always welcome to my blog for any proposition about Burma, either casually or with supportive facts.
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