If you watch the Burmese media closely then you already know that there have been some simply remarkable changes in the past year. I can’t think of any time (since 1962, at least) when so much has happened to shift perceptions of the country. It is remarkable, and important, that the media is now free(er) to play a vital role in helping keep the public informed about the country’s political, economic and social changes.
Here’s a (slightly) self-indulgent example. In a very long article published in a special supplement to this week’s Myanmar Times (the supplement, available here, deals with the first anniversary of the 2010 election) I get a chance to make some comments about the resumption of ethnic conflict in 2011. The section reads:
But one ingredient that has been lacking is progress in resolving simmering conflicts in Myanmar’s border regions, with the government apparently struggling to reach out to armed ethnic groups in a meaningful way. Dr Nicholas Farrelly, a Southeast Asia specialist at the Australian National University in Canberra and co-founder of the New Mandala website, said the government’s handling of the ethnic conflicts had been “bewildering”. “I am perplexed by the contradictions presented in recent events. On the one hand, Myanmar’s new government has shown itself adept at political and economic maneuvering … it has even shown itself to be developing some admirably democratic instincts,” he said.
“[But] no sooner than Myanmar started to enjoy relative democratic progress then these new civil wars kicked off. The resumption of hostilities is a black mark for President Thein Sein. A quick end to hostilities, with a pledge to take ethnic violence off the agenda once and for all, is the only way forward.” With steps towards political reconciliation in Burmese-dominated areas well underway, resolving these conflicts should be the top priority in the next 12 months, Dr Farrelly said. “Without a fair and sustainable resolution in those areas everything else will prove irrelevant window-dressing,” he said. “Any further escalation of the ethnic wars would not end well, for either side. So let’s hope the government opts for a more conciliatory path and gives itself a chance to agree final and lasting deals with its many ethnic opponents.”
As an illustration of what can now be printed in Burma today I think this is particularly helpful. So is this editorial which certainly gives some sense of the huge changes that have occurred over the past year. Naturally there are still all manner of problems when it comes to the free operation of the media but, reading that Myanmar Times supplement, I reckon there is no doubt that the old analysis about freedom of expression in Burma now requires reconsideration.
For those who are interested, this article sums up the new terrain quite well. It also quotes an anonymous Yangon-based editor who says:
The relaxation of censorship has been significant and occurred faster than I think anyone in the industry expected…Journalists now have more scope to criticize or quote people criticizing both the government and private sector. They are able to cover issues that were previously considered too sensitive, such as political prisoners. There is also a lot more advocacy — calling on the government to do this or that, which I think is also positive.
What do New Mandala readers think?

I believe it’s nothing more than a charm offensive at this stage. It is certainly a trend to be encouraged, but until reform moves outside Yangon and Naypyidaw to the borderlands I’m not convinced of its veracity.
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I think if it’s still improving after a decade – then okay – things will have changed. I think the combination of people desperate to see changed, and Burma’s tyrannical system of governance has not evolved, and this alchemy does not mix well for near-instant social and political change that some are claiming. There’s the possibility for things to instantly to resume the course prior to 2011. When that is no longer a possibility, then things will have really moved. In my opinion, the key word for Burma’s change is: irreversibility.
Sabai sabai
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Zarni’s : “Change the Burmese Public Can’t Believe In” http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=22301
Recent James Scott interview:
http://www.dvb.no/interview/james-c-scott-making-a-pact-with-the-military/17989
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One should not try either to convince that changes are happening for real, or that it’s all facade as usual. maybe time to think a bit out of the box, and listen to burmese people a little more, and a little less to the usual foreign pundits.
One thing is sure, the people who claim that very little is actually happening would have indeed be unable to imagine or even accaept the idea that within a year of the election, a repeat dialogue would have occured between ASSK and Thein Sein, that the chinese would be told to shove up that dam up after the people opposed it, that a substantial number of political prisoners would be released, and that the NLD would be able to debate to become a legit party again.
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“Any further escalation of the ethnic wars would not end well, for either side. So let’s hope the government opts for a more conciliatory path and gives itself a chance to agree final and lasting deals with its many ethnic opponents.”
Given this statment I expect that you will be watching carefully the talks between the Government of Burma and the NMSP and KNU:
http://www.dvb.no/news/karen-mon-armies-make-stab-at-peace/18728
These talks should give a fair indication on the state of mind not only of the Government but also of the NMSP and KNU regarding a willingness to bring Burma’s civil war to an end.
However, the ongoing offensive against the KIA and the atrocities being inflicted upon civilians – murder, rape, destruction of homes etc – certainly doesn’t bode well for the hope the Government may adopt a more conciliatory path.
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Different ingredients sometimes of oppositing taste are put in different stage of cooking to get a dish.
Than Shwe has masterfully changed the heat and ingredient according to his own recipes and it is simmering nicely.
The main theme of military knows best and would make all the major decisions remains the same. They have impeccable organizational ability, ruthlessness and fine sense of timing. Unfortunately they do not have ability to understand what is best for the people.
For them and unfortunately for the populace for a large portion of the so-called opposition including majority journalists, progressive country for the former and democracy for the latter is simply a few cities in the country like Shanghai, Tokyo or Bangkok connected by high speed trains and large roads and fast cars and broadband iPads. To that end all are united in selling off the coastal lands, rivers and farm lands, most fertile in the word, into foreign hands for quick bucks unsurprisingly with enthusiastic support from potential customers wringing their hands.
Military has written and approved by itself self preserving constitution and now need to change the appearance for the flavor as some buyers might have finicky domestic constituents.
And that is the story so far.
I have written elsewhere this.
Aung San Suu Kyi will be invited to the soft and air- conditioned pilot seat to be with Thein Sein. There they will find that the plane is in fact flown by computer. But they can still push on the buttons. It will not change the course of the flight but it will change the color of the plane from the current dark one reflecting the true inner self to sky blue so that the customers feel more comfortable and the tortured and the raped feels more hopeful.
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Burma inexplicably launches a charm offensive.
Burma wants to chair ASEAN in 2014.
Obviously these 2 things are completely unrelated.
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@surachai thongpanich – is everything in Thailand about Thailand wanting to chair Asean? Thailand wanted to chair Asean a couple of years ago. Was everything the government did then – in economic policy, politics etc dont to be able to chair Asean? The Myanmar government wants to chair Asean the way it has any other foreign policy goal, it’s important to the foreign ministry, it’s not important to the president or others at the top. If it happens, great. If it doesn’t it doesn’t matter. To think that the junta would dissolve, Than Shwe retire, a new constitutional system be set up , Aung San Suu Kyi be brought into politics, ceasefires agreed, major economic reforms started, political prisoners released, media freed-up, to CHAIR ASEAN? ??? It’s laughable.
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Soe Thane,
ASEAN is a matter of prestige and legitimacy. They were never going to blackball Burma anyway, only the US could get in the way.
Sanctions on the other hand relate to more down to earth money matters, and it’s two birds with one stone what the govt is trying to hit. Than Shwe’s favourite grandson has already made a trip to gay Paris they say.
The latest is ASSK has decided to re-register the NLD and contest the by-elections, another more or less foregone conclusion given the lack of options. A slippery slope to turn collaborator, corrupted by power (they’ll probably give her some obscure ministerial post like culture), or inside the fortress walls like a Trojan horse (less likely to survive and not rumbled) only time will tell.
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A great deal of international legitimacy will be given to Naypyidaw if the US begins to refer to Burma as Myanmar. I wonder if that could be used as a marker to symbolise one of Farrelly’s ‘turning points’ with regards to change.
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Speaking of which, Obama is set to visit Naypyidaw
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577045102193363634.html#articleTabs=article
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Speaking of which, Clinton is set to visit Naypyidaw
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577045102193363634.html#articleTabs=article
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Vietnam will never permit construction of a Chinese rail-road or oil pipeline in their country. Neither will South Korea. Not even North Korea. Why would Burmese generals permit construction of a Chinese railroad and oil pipeline? They can’t be that stupid, but some are very corrupt.
If there is a crisis in the Taiwan Straits, the US will close the Straits of Malacca and the Chinese Army will invade Burma to protect their railroad and oil-pipeline. And the Chinese Army will not leave.
The White House briefing on Burma stated : “They’ve taken a first step, but they recognise that we are prepared to meet them in that first step…. but I also think they are convinced of the seriousness of how the US President has approached this and THE DETERMINATION OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE.”
The requirements for the removal of American sanctions are clearly stated in the Tom Lantos Burma Freedom & Democracy Act. Let there be no misunderstanding, US will not abandon the Kachins our WW2 ally. The Statement supporting the Kachins by Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican Minority Leader who is likely to become Majority leader next year, is published on http://www.kachinnews.com.
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the hypocrisy about myanmar getting the asean chair is contemptible. asean has been chaired by laos, a nasty neo-stalinist totalitarian dictatorship, and by vietnam, a one-party communist dictatorship. it seems to me that some people are unable to accept that reform can be driven in myanmar by former members of the tatmadaw, who understand that they need to have a symbiotic relationship with the NLD, which has belatedly decided that politics is the art of compromise and has compromised on its demands for changes to the constitution and the release of all political prisoners and voted to return to the electoral process. as for the debate over nomenclature, in a country where the majority ethnic group is the bama people, ‘myanmar’ is more inclusive than ‘burma’. those who prefer an exclusive name for the country are putting themselves on the same side as neo-nazis and skinheads.
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RY,
It’s not so much the plight of the Kachin (though it’s going to be the cause célèbre) as the geostrategic point about the pipeline that will be decisive for the US.
But yes, greed transcends patriotism/nationalism with our generals.
Their grey cells can only see the dollars the primary source of which they now turn to. But will they ditch the pipeline unless there’s a better offer on the table from a westerly direction?
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The Burmese generals are now multi-millionaires. One of them bought a house on University Avenue for $7.0 million. Another bought a house on Inya Road for $4.0 million. What they cannot do is send their children to American Universities. And this will not happen until there is a negotiated political settlement in Burma.
And this is the primary mission of Hillary. She told Fox News ” we are not lifting sanctions, this is a fact-finding mission”.
China cannot send construction materials (cement & iron rods) to the Myitsone Dam since early June 2011 when the ceasefire ended in the Kachin State. KIA controls the roads from China. The Kachins have 10,000 soldiers in their regular army, and 20,000 soldiers in the Kachin People’s Army (their militia). They have their own weapons factory. The Burma Army cannot defeat them militarily. Thein Sein’s political advisor publicly stated at the Asean summit that they don’t want international mediation on ethnic issues. My guess is that this is one of the issues Hillary will discuss with the generals.
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There was a report in the New Light of Myanmar, early this month, of a meeting between the Head of the US Embassy in Rangoon and U Aung Thaung & his negotiating team for ethnic affairs. Several influential U.S. Congressmen and Senators wanted to know why the Burmese generals renewed the ceasefire with UWSA, China’s proxy army in Burma, while at the same time staging an unprovoked military offensive against the Kachins, our WW2 ally.
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RY,
The cynic would say perhaps they planned a trade off between the dam and the pipeline, fully aware that resuming hostilities in Kachin State would disrupt the dam project but wouldn’t matter if they were going to ditch it so they could ingratiate themselves with the West and incidentally the Burmese public. China can have the more crucial pipeline constructed, and the generals won’t need to fight on two fronts either as they keep the peace with the Chinese trained UWSA.
The US allies in WWII status of the Baptist Kachin, like the Karen’s loyalty to the British, has so far proved to be more of a liability than a blessing.
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aggadassavin,
Who are you kidding, ‘myanmar’ is more inclusive than ‘burma’? Doesn’t make a blind bit of difference.
Ask the ethnic peoples if the name matters more than the way they’ve been treated so far, if the name change really made them feel more inclusive since the country has always been officially Myanmar in the Burmese language from 11th C Bagan onwards. Burma and Burmese are English terms. Changing from Burma to Myanmar is just like changing from Germany to Deutschland. A cosmetic change that may fool only ignorant folk. Neo-Nazis and skinheads my foot.
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http://www.i-policy.org/2011/11/new-deal-could-double-internet-access-in-heavily-censored-burma.html
On changes in the media landscape: not only greater access to foreign websites, but possibly a new deal which would possibly increase the number of broadband users (although I suspect China is exporting more than just broadband tech – likely broadband management tech as well)
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New Light of Myanmar (Nov 17,2011) – Naypyidaw,16 Nov. Mr. Michael E. Thurston, Charge d’ affaires of the US Embassy paid a call on Union-level Internal Peace Making Group leader U Aung Thaung and Deputy Group Leader U Thein Zaw in order to ask about the progress of internal peace talks, at Amara Hotel in Nay Pyi Daw Zone this morning.
Wall Street Journal (Nov 22,2011) – “End to Violence is a U.S. Condition for Lifting Sanctions”. US officials say “before U.S. will ease sanctions, Myanmar must take a number of steps including the release of all political prisoners, increased transparency in dealing with North Korea and an end to violence in ethnic areas. Myanmar has made strides on some of the requirements, officials say, but has made minimal progress on the ethnic issue.”
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