This past week in Thailand saw both the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts mobilised. Perhaps it was déjà vu. The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) had its first major gathering this year on 10 March 2012, while the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) had its regular official press conference on 9 March and a concert in Supanburi on 10 March. Interestingly Ajarn Worajade of Nitirat fame was at a round-table at Chiang Mai University speaking on issues of constitutional law and Thai democracy. Here’s a recap of an interesting week.
PAD (Sonthi Limthongkul, Chamlong Srimeong, Pipob Thongchai, Somkiat Pongpaibul)
- Politicians are still as corrupt as ever
- The military will side with whomever gives them a fat cheque
- We are the only hope for the survival of the monarchy
- PAD is not dead, don’t underestimate us
- Nothing has changed since we first convened here in 2005
- We are against amending the 2007 constitution
- We are losing territories
- We can’t win this fight without ASTV (we have some 3-5 million viewers, but little financial support)
- The Democrat Party accused me (Sonthi) of taking money from Thaksin
- If Thaksin returns we will squash him
- Time is not yet ripe for a major PAD rally, but be prepared to mobilize
- This revolution will need both the people and the army to come out
- The current political system needs to be dismantled before change can happen
My take: Nothing new in terms of rhetoric. The most surprising thing was the PAD turnout – no official number but from eye-balling the crowd it’s over 1,000.
UDD Red in the Land (Thida Tavornsate, Wang Tojirakarn, Sonwang Assarasri, Pipatchai Paibul, Wiputalaeng Pattanabhumtai, Kwanchai Praipanna)
- We are moving along with victim compensation
- There are a number of Red Shirt “unofficial” leaders – be careful
- We support doing away with 2007 constitution, but the new one must be for all people not just for the Red Shirts
- We want to amend article 291 without touching the clause regarding the monarchy
- The Democrats don’t want to reconcile because they will keep losing in elections
- Where a heck were the ombudsmen in May 2010 and why haven’t we made progress in uncovering the truth of the Bloody May?
- The Democrats are the one meddling monarchy in politics, not us
My take: The most surprising element is the presence of Kwanchai Praipanna. After heavy criticism from various Red Shirt sub-groups and a rumor that he was breaking away from the UDD, being on stage with other UDD leaders signified him reconciling with them (at least for now).
Nitirat
Ajarn Worajade: The new constitution should have a clause on coup d’état and its legal repercussions otherwise we will continue to have Thai-style democracy as we do today.
Other round-table panelists (excerpts from Matichon):
Ajarn Puangtong Pawakapan: The fact that Pheua Thai refused to amend Article 112 allows the Red Shirts to break free and could speed up their political mobilization. It’s exciting that the Red Shirts will have more political independence.
Ajarn Somchai Preechasilapakul: Nitirat proposals adversely affect the army’s tradition of coups which is why Nitirat gets stuck and can’t move forward. Change will take time. There’s no such thing as the last war.
When PAD maintains that politicians are corrupt, don’t forget that these politicians are in good company, i.e., the whole Thai populace. It is one national trait of Thai people to cheat, and PAD people are no exception. Our Sondhi Limthongkul, for example, has been shown in the court of justice to be quite adept at it.
Quality comment or not?
24 
0
The PAD crowd according to Bangkok Post was 2000, The Nation 3000+, the PAD themselves 20000-40000.
Quality comment or not?
10 
0
2 points:
1. oddly enough, PAD leaders said “the military will side with whomever gives them a fat cheque”, whereas Bangkokpost report said “A quick tally found one-third of those who attended said it was not the time for the PAD to stage a rally without the support of other parties, including the military.” (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/283798/pad-shelves-mass-rally-over-constitution).
Obviously PAD and military are no longer the sweetest bedfellows and yet they seem to still agree that they can’t live without each other.
2. Red leaders maintained they “want to amend article 291 without touching the clause regarding the monarchy”, whereas Ajarn Worajade suggested that red shirts should “break free” from PTP at this issue and stand out for LM amendment.
Ajarn Worajade said that the red shirts mobilization can accelerate if they rise up for LM amendment. Honestly, I believe the mobilizable force for LM amendment should lie mostly in the red. However, red shirts leaders have made it clear that they would not sign up for the campaign.
So where will the red shirts stand in the matter of LM amendment? will those red shirts who are supportive to nitirat “break free” from UDD and PTP?
Quality comment or not?
5 
1
“Dan D”:
The PAD crowd was around 2000 to 3000, which includes representatives from many of their provincial chapters. This is the amount of people that the PAD nowadays manages to get. If they stretch their resources the PAD manages to get maybe up to 5000 supporters.
“bunny”:
Yes, indeed, the military is not supporting the PAD anymore. The parts of the military that supported the PAD once have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, as have the Democrat Party and affiliated senators and academics.
One of the reasons for the PAD not engaging into large scale street protests now is simply because they are not able to – as we have seen during their protests in the first half of 2011, in which they had on average only several hundred protesters at their rally site.
Also important to point out is Sondhi Limthongkul’s speech – which had very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings against karmic repercussions against the many quarters that want to harm him. He also referred to his prison sentence, and again to the attempt on his life, connecting his survival (again) somehow to his fight for the monarchy and that whoever fights truly for the monarchy will not be seriously harmed.
He finished with pointing out the difficult financial situation ASTV is in, asking for support, and many people went to and on the stage donating money.
The finishing part of Pipob’s speech, which i listened to, contained his explanations of Thailand’s “patiroop”, which will have to come through “baramee”, and therefore through the king as he has the most “baramee” in Thailand.
At the present situation it is illusionary that the UDD will openly support the Nitirat proposals and break with PTP. While a large amount of Red Shirts may privately support Nitirat, most Red Shirts believe that it is premature to go that far, and would cause a new round of open and violent clashes with the establishment, and a bloodbath the UDD – their leadership, their former leaders now MP’s and their allies in the PTP – want to avoid.
Quality comment or not?
12 
4
“Ajarn Worajade: The new constitution should have a clause on coup d’état and its legal repercussions otherwise we will continue to have Thai-style democracy as we do today.”
So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t?
The legal mind never ceases to amaze.
Did the telecommunications regulatory system envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? Did criminal justice reformed as envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? (arts 237 – 246) and so on and so on ….
Connect to reality. Reality is not the imagined world of legal scholars.
Go to the prisons when the police are pushing defendants around the cell trying to extract 1.5 mil out of them for dropping the case, the pre-trial arraignment hearings held in grimy little cramped lockups 5 minutes per head, experience first-hand a legal process that is so slow that most give up or even die before any resolution on cases are made, experience a govt dept saying something like “you don’t need those documents” even though the law says they do and then many years later wham there’s a crackdown and they need the documents or its a big fine or off to jail or the Chiang Rai farmer driving the wrong way down the side of the road, hit by a drunk German whose wife’s brother or cousin (i forget) was a high-ranking military officer who works it out so he has to only pay a pittance to the quadraplegic and so on and so on … or the military guys laughing about the headman that was shot dead in front of his family (without trial) during the border altercation with Burma because of the business he had with the Burmese… etc etc… in the provinces people hear enough of these stories (that really should be plastered across the front of the newspaper) and they simply don’t register anymore or dismiss them as gossip no matter how true they are…
When will legal scholars actually go out and get their hands dirty, leave the air-conditioned office and study the grimy and unjust reality that they have helped create and perpetuate everyday?
And after they study it, do something about it.
Quality comment or not?
7 
2
I have often and for many years attended the PAD parties, so I know how to count and estimate how many are there.
As I was there from morning until evening, I went to count the number of people 3 times during the day. That was rather easy to do compared with many other PAD gatherings where it is usually not that easy to check.
The PAD crowd was – at any given time as follows:
In the concert hall – full – 27 rows x 55 chairs = 1, 485 people + some 200 sitting on the floor.
In the garden another ca 2, 000 people watching the in-door meeting from outside on big screens.
About 3, 700 persons totally.
During the whole day people came, went out/home, and new came – about 3, 000 – 4, 000 people extra added to above as new.
This will give some 6, 700 – 7, 700 people during the day. Even more than the PAD themselves have reported.
Many, even thousands, of the PAD supporters had left long before Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai had entered the stage. It was just to stand in front of the concert hall to see how many that left early, clearly being PAD supporters with stickers, flags, signs, papers, booklets and shirts.
The figures are neither good nor bad. They are expected, nothing else.
During PAD protests in the first half of 2011, it is not true they had on average only several hundred protesters at their rally site. Certain weeks, sometimes in a row, during the rallies it was down to 500 – 700 people. In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more.
How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see.
This, as I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.
If there support would come from parts of the military, the Democrat Party and affiliated senators and academics, they would definitely have many, many more people coming. They don’t have. Sorry. Just go and see!
Quality comment or not?
14 
1
Thanks Garuda. Your observations are welcome. I am not sure why there is a feeling that PAD is finished. Sondhi is mad. Well, he was before, so that doesn’t count. They get “small” crowds? Well smaller than during the big days, but what does that mean. The stimulus for coming out in bulk is not there yet, so why get people on the streets. They must have learned that in 2011. And, is Siam Samakki different from PAD? In the sense that the air force is different from the army? Having a bunch of right wing royalist groups has advantages if it comes to a need to mobilise. I’m thinking Navaphol, Krating Daeng, Village Scouts, etc.
PAD and like groups are likely to converge for mobilisation when/if the time is right.
Quality comment or not?
7 
1
@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?
Quality comment or not?
1 
0
(jonfernquest#5) “So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t? The legal mind never ceases to amaze.”
That’s a stunningly reductionist view of law which even the current crop of Republican hopefuls in the United States might find hard to swallow. People rape, kill and steal even though there are laws on the books against such activities. An injunction against coups would serve a similar purpose of defining the activity as outside of social norms. That may not be the answer to the problem, but surely it is part of the answer.
Quality comment or not?
9 
0
“Garuda”:
“In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. ”
This is not true. The PAD managed to get at most 3000 – 5000 people, and that was on the few days they feared police dispersal, when they mobilized their southern chapters and brought them in by bus. On the last night the protest area was a bit more crowded, maybe 2000 protesters. At the time the Thai Patriot Network leaders were more open to discussion, and they regularly talked with me about their failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously.
As a comparison – during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.
Police, Special Branch and the military kept each quite close counts of the numbers, and they corresponded to my estimates, and not to yours.
“How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see. ”
You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.
As to the numbers, no, you are wrong again. At the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the same hall on March 2, 2012, just a week before the PAD meeting, there were approximately 1200 chairs inside the hall – fully occupied, plus about 200 people sitting on the floor and standing on the sides, and several hundred people sitting in the garden outside. This makes about 1500 to 2000 people in attendance, and not 500, as you state (i have photos to back that claim up). About the same as in the previous meetings in the same location.
The support of the Democrat Party you can see by Blue Sky TV regularly broadcasting the Siam Samakkhi events, by Malika having spoken on the stage during the last meet, by Chirmsak Pinthong (who is very close to the Democrat Party) being a regular speaker at Siam Smakkhi. I photographed Rotsana Tositrakul, one of the group of 40 senators, and a former PAD supporter, on the stage at Siam Sammakhi’s concert at Thammasat’s Pridi Statue on December 2, 2011. Seri Wongmontha and Kaewsan Atibodhi are regular academic speakers at Siam Samakkhi rallies, who were formerly regular speakers at PAD stages.
As to the military support, you should have a look at the networks the founding generals such as Somjet Boonthanom belong to, which position Somjet has held during the military coup, and with whom he was (and still is) affiliated.
It is a fallacy to judge the size of Siam Sammakhi by the numbers that presently attend their meetings, as their affiliated networks can mobilze far greater numbers should the need arise. We have though seen that the PAD, even when bringing in upcountry support, can mobilize only about what we have seen in 2011 – at most 5000 people – as their Democrat Party, labor union and military networks (which in the past have contributed considerable numbers) have now stopped supporting the PAD.
Quality comment or not?
12 
6
Nick Nostitz #4
Also important to point out is Sondhi Limthongkul’s speech – which had very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings against karmic repercussions against the many quarters that want to harm him. He also referred to his prison sentence, and again to the attempt on his life, connecting his survival (again) somehow to his fight for the monarchy and that whoever fights truly for the monarchy will not be seriously harmed.
Such dangerous aspects of rabble rousing need to be seriously watched in Thailand. This spiritual equivalent of impunity has had fatal consequences in the past. It is worth reflecting on Thongchai Winichakul’s speech “Hyper-Royalism: Its Spells and Its Magic” given at the recent Democracy and Crisis conference at Chulalongkorn University.
http://prachatai.com/english/node/3097
Quality comment or not?
5 
0
“Nick Nostitz #4 & 10″
Thanks for your comments!
Just a short explanation and clarification on my and your comments about PAD’s meeting at the concert hall in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012.
Neither you nor I have to fully relay on others figures – we can go counting ourselves to find out. So I did. Three times that day. Also people who leave early were there once. Also those who came later. They also have to be counted. I hope you wouldn’t like to hear that you were not there because you were not there at a specific time when somebody looked for you? Either you were there some time, or you were not. That’s what counts.
The figures of supporters I reported (in Garuda #6) attending the PAD party in the concert hall and surroundings in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012, are most likely correct as they cover morning, day and evening. Not just when Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai talked for some 2 hours. It covers 10-11 hours, and that is much longer. Some supporters just came for the registration and voting that took place about how the PAD should proceed with the movement. Many of the voters just came for that and left (almost) immediately thereafter. Most of the registration and voting took place from 9 a.m. to around 1 p.m. One could still vote later, though many did not do so thereafter. If you would have been there that early, you would also have seen what not just I saw, we all saw, we who were there that early.
During that day it was rather easy to see farangs moving around inside the concert hall as well as in the surroundings. The most obvious reason is that you all stick out by being white skinned. Simple as that. You were not that many. During the event I just saw 3 Caucasian journalists and photographers, and 1 what seemed to be just a white supporter of the PAD. That was all. One of the journalists and photographers was there for about 1 hour in the mid day, one two hours later for about 1/2 hour. And, what could it be for you Nick? Best for 3 hours. I hope I’m not wrong with you. So how many supporters of PAD were you able to see during your approximately 3 hours there? Were you able to see and count all those who were there before you came?
You’re a great journalist, Nick. I read with great interest your books and articles. You’ve got the picture(s) to a great extent correct, though not always.
But,… you were not there that early and long to be able to judge how many PAD supporters were there prior to your arrival. As I understand, we are not equipped with such extraordinary senses of being able to judge things we cannot see or know if we are not there (if we are not The Lord Buddha, that is), are we? Can we agree on that, Nick?!
PAD plays by the tune ‘wait and see’.
If you look at the picture(s) from Bangkok Post published 26/01/2011 (from the same time also different published pictures from other newspapers showed the same), you’ll clearly see that the PAD party reaches from Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to Royal Plaza covering all traffic lanes blocking the whole avenue. It also reached from Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue down to Government House, where Chamlong Srimuang’s Santi Asoke (Buddhist sect) had their camp and rally. That is well over 20, 000 people, I count low here (PAD would say 50, 000 or more). It could actually have been well over 25,000 – 30,000. It was like this for some time (if I remember correct for 10-14 days), then it went down. It goes up and down. This happens during all PAD rallies, nothing unusual with that. Still many thousands of people there.
Judge yourself:
See photos in Bangkok Post 26/01/2011: “Military flexes its muscle” http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/218177/military-flexes-its-muscle
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in BP) on: http://khmernz.blogspot.com/2011_01_26_archive.html
More photos can be seen in Tan Network “People’s Alliance Kicks Off Mass Rally” 25/01/2011:
http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1040011
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in Tan Network) on: http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
Jet more photos in The Nation 28/01/2011: ‘Hello, we’re back!’
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/01/26/national/Hello-were-back%21-30147216.html
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in The Nation) on:
http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
Why the PAD came out.
First a clarification. What everyone clearly could witness happening at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge from January to July 2011 was not at all/really a PAD rally organized by the PAD. From Khun Limthongkul I’ve got the following explanation to why PAD came out. PAD didn’t first answer to the request of Chamlong Srimuang as he had wanted it to do. The collective view to the request from the other 4 leaders was that this was not for the PAD to get involved into. After a considerable time trying to avoid getting into this conflict/protest, the other 4 leaders finally felt they couldn’t deny Chamlong the support. Actually they ‘somehow’ were forced to help their friend.
It’s correct Nick what you write: “on the few days they feared police dispersal”. Yes, that’s why they came out that many already the first day(s). Most of the supporters leaving after some time were people from the north and northeast of Thailand. Yes, the PAD has quite a lot of their supporters coming from there, even poor farmers. When supporters felt the area was enough safeguarded by that many already, several thousand went home for work or whatever reasons they had. This happens all the time. When it is or will be serious/hot enough they (will) come/came back in big quantities.
It is like this. PAD supporters, especially during 2011, came in the afternoons or evenings, because they were usually from Bangkok area and worked during daytime. They stayed until the leaders had talked or to some time thereafter, then they went home. Another reason why many were not there in daytime was that there was no special program then and it was very hot sitting there and you get very, very tired. Try it, and you’ll see.
The month before 25 of May the number of supporters was many days/nights down to 500-700 people – fully correct. When PAD celebrated three years since the restart of their street protests on May 25, 2008 at Democracy Monument on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the figures were up with some thousands again, for some days. Then again it went down until it started to go up some three weeks before the party was ended 1 of July. It went rapidly up to several thousand up to 10, 000 or more the final day.
During May and June I was frequently approached by various people in Bangkok, even journalists, who told me that the PAD rally was closed down (quite often mentioned as closed down by the police), the tents and stages gone and traffic was as usual on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. Oh, wishful thinking. They were wrong, of course. Sometimes I had to call some friends at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to find out or to have the approaching persons to talk in my mobile with somebody at the spot. They were still there, of course.
The Thai Patriot Network is an offshoot of the PAD movement, not necessarily agreeing on everything PAD does. Many of them (especially the more prominent and sometimes older ones) have lived in US most of their lives or at least long enough to, to some extent, have ‘lost’ their contact to Thailand (the country they once left for finding something better), understanding what is going on in their ‘home’ country or even dreaming of a Thailand that once was Siam and, in their eyes, a much greater nation than Thailand is today. They are some kind of expats, and same as many farangs here are not fully acclimatized to ‘their new home country’, still after all these years making complaints of the land they originate from.
I sometimes talk with their leaders/’spokespersons’ about their views of PAD and Thailand. Unfortunately, they, in my view, seem to have less knowledge than the ordinary PAD supporter has about Thailand and what is going on. It is quite often not that easy to discuss with them if you go deeper into the subjects. If PAD many times is referred to as being nationalistic, then the Thai Patriot Network really can live up to it all. Could be one reason why they feel “their (PAD’s) failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously”. They may be disappointed that PAD has not been able to change that much as they would have wanted. Things take time.
To your comparison: “during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.”
As I were there during the October 7, 2008 clashes – the days before, that day and the days and nights after, I think I have a ‘rather’ clear picture, as clear as one can have over that extended area. Of course, neither you nor I could cover such a big area.
The support masses of PAD were at that time still quite huge. I would say they exceeded the 10, 000 you write. They were more likely in the region of 30, 000. It is first by the end of October they go down. Especially during November and the weeks before the seizure of Don Mueang Airport and Suvarnabhumi International Airport on the evening 25 of November. The weeks before the seizure of the airports the occupied Government House area was ‘almost deserted’, sometimes looking like ‘ghost blocks’. This should not be interpreted as ‘all had left’.
The numbers had by then declined/dwindled considerably compared with before. After that many days in protests, it was not easy for the PAD movement and leaders to keep that many supporters staying day after day, week out and in, month after month not having accomplished that much yet. Many were so exhausted by now and ‘Red-Shirt’ Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol (“Sae Daeng”) moved around in the area, on roofs, creating death and terror to some PAD supporters inside and outside the garden of the Government House.
Suddenly, the movement got fresh air and woke up en masse to occupy the airports with great success. That can happen again. The PAD movement can once again wake up en masse. They have still not lost their force. Don’t count them out yet. That would be a mistake.
I am sure PAD can, as you mention about Siam Samakkhi and their network, “mobilize far greater numbers should the need arise”.
You write: “You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.”
You and it may be right. But, as loyalty in Thailand changes rather quick if not rapidly (you would know by now), we wouldn’t know very well what is valid and real tomorrow. Many of the PAD supporters were Thaksin Shinawatra supporters before they switched to PAD. Correct!?
Asking, yesterday, one of the original PAD organizers, still within the movement, still organizing, he told me that “no one really knows”. No one really knows.
Unfortunately, I was not able to come to the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the Lumpini Park concert hall on 2 of March 2012, as I had other engagements to attend that day. And, my main work is absolutely not checking and attending every party or rally there is. Very few can make a living on doing that. I fully trust you if you say that there was 1, 500 – 2, 000 people in attendance. I wasn’t there and can not and should not contradict what you’re telling.
I said: “I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.”
We all take photos when going to political parties. And, so do I. I don’t need to back up that claim with photos. A normal rally of Siam Samakkhi, let’s say at Victory Monument, just attracts about 100 – 150 supporters. They have been there several of times. So have I. And, with camera. Usually with the same result – not too many came. You couldn’t claim it was crowded, not really even a crowd. Many of them are my long-time friends.
What you say about the Democrat Party’s support of the Siam Samakkhi and its events is true, of course. So is the support from the group of 40 senators, some academics and parts of the military.
What if their support to Siam Samakkhi in the end is/will be/leads to/turns out to be a repetition of the support once given the PAD by the same above mentioned? The Siam Samakkhi being fooled by someone (the same groups) they once trusted being able to help them change Thailand to a better place for all Thais, by turning their back to them later on! See what happened after the PAD helped them out in 2006 and 2008.
I don’t know if you can say that the Democrat Party and military networks now have stopped supporting the PAD. What I know is that they turned their back on them. That is quite a different way of expressing what really happened after the PAD had ‘helped’ the above mentioned. In 2011, or rather long before that, the PAD had had enough of both the Democrat Party and military (networks). The PAD felt they were not being at all ‘rewarded’ for ‘doing the work for them’. Rewarded should be interpreted as not even trying, in PAD view, making a better, not corrupt Thailand a.o.t. PAD were not themselves interested in own political power, just that the parties in the Parliament should do what they, by the people/voters, were expected to do. Nothing else.
Military support goes to Siam Samakkhi, the Red Shirts/United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), and still to the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and possibly others too. They are all supported by the military directly or persons representing the military.
So it also is with support and money coming from the big, medium and small companies in Thailand. It goes to all of the above mentioned movements as well as to all political parties, the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party, as well as the rest. Most often a company is supporting and giving to/investing money in more than one party at the same time. This as no one fully knows who will win, lead, participate in or control a next government.
Who is supporting who and who is screwing/fucking who for the moment? If we (just) knew that… Then there may be a different and better Thailand for all to live in, don’t you agree?
For some time, during last year’s rally, PAD was economically supported by PTT (a Thai state-owned SET-listed oil and gas company, formerly known as the Petroleum Authority of Thailand), before PAD sued them and lost their money support.
Strange that no one of you mentioned what Pipob Thongchai said, that the PAD’s cautious approach could lead to real change as the group was serious about building up networks and educating people about political regimes.
If the PAD had started doing this already in 2008, it would have been better, than starting now, when the Red Shirts already are in the swing with their education concept of democracy.
Better late than sorry, it seems.
Luecha Na Malai #8
Correct, you’ve got it right. “PAD people are no exception” of being in good company of politicians being corrupt. Some of them are also practicing the double standards’ trait. Are you really surprised?
Dan D #8
“@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?”
I don’t know what is official within the PAD or not. PAD doesn’t really work that way, always. In many ways PAD is well organized, but in this case various information comes from inside, and from, of course, from different people. Remember, we are in Thailand. Does it surprise you?
Sam Deedes #11
You know how Sondhi Limthongkul is. Of course, don’t forget he is, to some extent, dangerous with his “very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings”. Just don’t get too hooked on it. He does have more relevant things to say.
What a Great Country Thailand is!
“Garuda” has attended the PAD rallies for more than 200 days, the UDD rallies for more than 40 days, the Siam Samakkhi so many times and other parties and colours frequently from 2005 until now. He will continuously do so.
Quality comment or not?
12 
2
“Garuda”:
I arrived at about 15.00, not too long after incident of the voice TV car, and left not long after Sondhi L.’s speech, maybe just after 20.00. During this time i did what i always do – i move around the area, and talk with people i know. Therefore you won’t see me stationary at the stage for long.
As to the numbers, we could argue forever. I have my own estimates, and compare them with the estimates of special branch, military intel and police (who all have a vast experience in estimating crowds – it is their profession, after all), and draw a medium.
When you mentioned the meetings at Victory monument – these were not full Siam Samakkhi meetings, they were meetings of Dr. Tul’s group, which is now one of the groups allied with Siam Samakkhi. Full Siam Samakkhi meetings are generally larger, as they include many groups, such as the different facebook groups such as Boworn Yasinthorn’s group, many people that also attend the PAD meetings, now also some of the Santi Asoke sect, and many of the former “Hiso-PAD”.
The 2011 PAD/Thai Patriot Network rally was hardly reported on by most media. The majority of journalists only came to the press conferences, and left straight away to the press room in government house. I came regularly though. The only independent media that had a cameraman at the stage all the time was TNN. I also went to Aranyaprathet when the Thai Patriot network protested there (as the only foreign journalist), and was also part of the group of journalists that were allowed by the military to accompany their reps to the border.
I didn’t have the time though to write a report on all that for New Mandala.
As to the impression of the numbers attending the Makkhawan rally site, people gathered at the small space in front of the stage, the area immediately behind it, until the Thai Patriot Network’s area began were mostly empty tents giving a resemblance of a large crowd.
There were a few occasions when protesters came out, such as at the swearing of the oath at Royal Plaza on February 11, 2011, and the combined crowd was incredibly small compared to the 2006 and the 2008 protests.
As to vested interests having a tendency to use different groups for their own means, i somewhat agree with you there. The PAD was definitely used by the establishment when the establishment saw the potential of the PAD in early 2006. And the PAD also became uncomfortable for their backers, first after the coup, leading to another collaboration in 2008, another fall out in 2009, a somewhat unsuccessful attempted collaboration during the 2010 Red Shirt rallies by setting up together the Pink Shirts/Multicolored Group/Silom People, and leading to a final fall out in the 2011 protests.
Many say that there is always the option that the PAD and their former backers could get back together again, but i personally have serious doubts about that, especially as long as Sondhi is still a main leader.
Siam Samakkhi was founded by members of the coup group directly, quite different from both the PAD and the Red Shirts, which grew somewhat more organically. But where we differ in our assessment is that i believe that at present the PAD is now at a dead end, and devolved into a fringe group without mass base and has lost almost all allies.
Siam Samakkhi may not have a mass base either, but has allied networks that can provide them with something that will resemble a mass base (through Democrat and military networks).
Mass based street politics in Thailand now have to a large part been taken over by the Red Shirts, who morphed over the years from a disorganized rabble in 2006/2007 into the most sophisticated social mass movement Thailand has ever seen – each crackdown against them resulted in structural changes and improvements leading to an incredibly multi-layered organization.
Quality comment or not?
13 
9
“Nick Nostitz #10 & 13″
Is this your Walk to Canossa!? Bist du nach Canossa gegangen?!
Reading your comments to “Garuda #6 & 12”, I was more than surprised, rather quite stunned. Especially your comments to “Garuda #12”.
Where was thee Nick Nostitz we are used to know and read?! What has happened? Where are the answers? Are you trying to avoid them? Once more Nick. Where are the answers? You ought to have them!
Usually, you are very precise. That is Nick Nostitz, isn’t it? That’s what we used to know you as being good at, being precise. Then you are really good. Where is that precision now? Where has it gone?
You actually have to stand by your writing. You must have a leg to stand on. If not, your writing will not be serious and we wouldn’t like that. Right?
— For you having ‘difficulties’ in following this conversation/comment, please go back to “Nick Nostitz #4, 10 & 13″ and “Garuda #6 & 12” for the full story/comments. Then you’ll understand clearly. —
You were not really commenting and giving answers to my comments/assertions and linked pictures on what you had earlier written, your own assertions, at all. This we are not very used to see when you are expressing yourself on this forum. Rather the opposite.
It ought to be almost ‘criminal’ to tell A and then not B. Starting up things/discussions, though not finishing them. Not giving answers to questions. Avoiding it. Wouldn’t you agree Nick!? Yes or no, Nick?
I do have to thank you for the extra information you gave on several other things! Well done!
We will not argue forever, not argue at all. There’s no point in that, as this is not a competition. At least not for me. Hope not for you either. Though…
Now comes – the PAD rally, from 25-26/01/2011 and for another 10 to 14 days…
Were my comments/assertions and linked pictures all that wrong, really? Were they really that wrong? Please, answer? Yes or no, Nick?
A picture, or several, tells (or can tell) a story, sometimes more than words can tell. If the picture(s) is correct, that is. What I can understand were the linked pictures I gave not wrong. Then both Bangkok Post and The Nation must have been wrong too. Wouldn’t you agree? Yes or no, Nick?
Not to mention all people who were there (according to you some 3, 000 – 5, 000 persons) and experienced, in real life, the same picture(s) as in both newspapers. The people I have talked to confirm the pictures from Bangkok Post and The Nation are correct. Maybe, they saw wrong too. Then it could be up to 20, 000 or even up to 25, 000 – 30, 000 people + two major newspapers getting the wrong picture, the picture wrong. Just hope the newspapers in Thai language haven’t got it wrong also.
However, you got the picture right. Is that so? Yes or no, Nick?
Nick, kindly be a little correct for the protocol.
So Nick, my question is now, with help of the pictures, are you viewing 3, 000 – 5, 000 persons, or could it possibly be ‘several‘ thousand more of them?
With your estimation Nick, how many people do you now see with help of the pictures, knowing PAD party reached from Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to Royal Plaza covering all traffic lanes blocking the whole avenue and also reaching from Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue down to Government House (you know how that street looks like and probably how many of Chamlong’s people would be camping there)?
The estimate in numbers of the participants during the first part of the PAD rally, from 25-26/01/2011 and for another 10 to 14 days were obviously many more than you wrote, even later on they were many more than you told. Though, you are right when you give the figures “on average only several hundred protesters” – that was during certain periods of the protest at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge.
Once more, judge yourself:
See photos in Bangkok Post 26/01/2011: “Military flexes its muscle” http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/218177/military-flexes-its-muscle
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in BP) on: http://khmernz.blogspot.com/2011_01_26_archive.html
More photos can be seen in Tan Network “People’s Alliance Kicks Off Mass Rally” 25/01/2011:
http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1040011
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in Tan Network) on: http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
Jet more photos in The Nation 28/01/2011: ‘Hello, we’re back!’
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/01/26/national/Hello-were-back%21-30147216.html
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in The Nation) on:
http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
About PAD’s meeting at the concert hall in Lumphini Park + the surroundings, 10 of March 2012…
You write: “I have my own estimates, and compare them with the estimates of special branch, military intel and police (who all have a vast experience in estimating crowds – it is their profession, after all), and draw a medium.”
It’s ok with me – all respects – if this is your, the special branch, military intel and police estimates and that you draw a medium of that.
I counted three times that day, covering morning, day and evening. Also people who leave early were there once. Also those who came later. They also have to be counted. Or, could I be wrong by also counting them who left early and came later?
The PAD crowd was – at any given time as follows:
In the concert hall – full – 27 rows x 55 chairs = 1, 485 people + some 200 sitting on the floor.
In the garden another ca 2, 000 people watching the in-door meeting from outside on big screens.
About 3, 700 persons totally.
During the whole day people came, went out/home, and new came – about 3, 000 – 4, 000 people extra added to above as new.
This will give some 6, 700 – 7, 700 people during the day. Even more than the PAD themselves have reported.
Many, even thousands, of the PAD supporters had left long before Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai had entered the stage. It was just to stand in front of the concert hall to see how many that left early, clearly being PAD supporters with stickers, flags, signs, papers, booklets and shirts.
“During the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters”, you write.
I would say it would have been almost impossible, not to mention very dangerous and suicide, to cover such a big area covering from Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge, through the Royal Plaza all the way beyond the Parliament, and including the Government House as well with just 10, 000 PAD protesters. It’s such a vast area to cover, that the PAD never would have risked their supporters for that. Never. If the PAD would have been spreading their supporters out like you say, just with 10, 000 people, then they would not have been able to defend themselves at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge, the Government House, Royal Plaza and the Parliament, as the area is that huge. Their people would have been very vulnerable for attacks from the police or whoever wanted to attack them.
That risk PAD would never have put themselves in if they would have been that few. With that few you mention, they might then have lost their grounds at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge and the Government House and their fight/protest in no time. Major General Chamlong Srimuang and General Pathomphong Kesornsuk as well as others would never have risked people, the PAD, their grounds and their fight/protest doing this with that few you mention. Remember, Chamlong and Pathomphong are two renowned strategists.
I was there, so I know how it looks/looked like and how dangerous it was. It was far more than just 10, 000 supporters covering that area. They were more likely in the region of 30, 000 people covering the whole area.
Nick, do you really believe it is very likely that Chamlong and Pathomphong would have come to the conclusion it was wise and possible to safeguard an area about 2 km long x 0,5 km wide, with access for the police and others to target the PAD from at least 11 roads leading in to that vast and extended area??? Yes or no, Nick?
You say: “Many say that there is always the option that the PAD and their former backers could get back together again, but i personally have serious doubts about that, especially as long as Sondhi is still a main leader.”
+ “i believe that at present the PAD is now at a dead end, and devolved into a fringe group without mass base and has lost almost all allies.”
Thai history has taught us Never Say Never Again. Friendship come, friendship go, friendship recur.
I agree with you that “Full Siam Samakkhi meetings are generally larger” than 500 people. However, such meetings are not that very common.
I know several, though I would rather call them many, people/supporters who switch between and/or attend each other’s rallies, the PAD, Dr. Tul’s group, Siam Samakkhi, and even the Red Shirts, sometimes like “we” are changing shirts.
For Thais nothing is black or white or even eternal, as loyalty in Thailand changes rather quick if not rapidly. So, we wouldn’t know very much and very well what is valid and real tomorrow. It’s some part of our Thainess, being neither/nor, either/or and ‘no direction at all’, the last citing Kittirat Na Ranong, Finance Minister of Thailand, for the time being.
I fully agree with you in: “Mass based street politics in Thailand now have to a large part been taken over by the Red Shirts, who morphed over the years from a disorganized rabble in 2006/2007 into the most sophisticated social mass movement Thailand has ever seen – each crackdown against them resulted in structural changes and improvements leading to an incredibly multi-layered organization.”
The only scary thing with this is that we just don’t know what this will result in yet. Can be good, can turn out to be really bad. If it will lead to full control of the country, parliamentary dictatorship or even worse, will this lead to a better Thailand?
What if we one day wake up to full-blown dictatorship, by ‘democratically’ voting somebody into Parliament and Government carte blanche, Full/Plenary Powers.
What is your opinion about that?
Still strange that no one of you mentioned what Phiphob Thongchai said, that the PAD’s cautious approach could lead to real change as the group was serious about building up networks and educating people about political regimes.
If the PAD had started doing this already in 2008, it would have been better, than starting now, when the Red Shirts already are in the swing with their education concept of democracy.
Better late than sorry, it seems.
Any comments on this?
“Garuda” has attended Sondhi Limthongkul’s Lumphini Park “We Fight for the King” rallies (a forerunner to the PAD) 2005-2006 on and off, the PAD/Yellow Shirts rallies for more than 200 days, Caravan of the Poor rallies (supporting then Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a forerunner to the UDD/Red Shirts) several times 2006, the UDD/Red Shirts rallies for more than 40 days, the Siam Samakkhi & Dr. Tul’s group so many times and other parties and colours like Pink Shirts/Multicolored Group/Silom People a.o. when they were in swing frequently from 2005 until now.
Garuda will continuously attend as many rallies as possible.
Quality comment or not?
7 
8
Garuda #14
I am quite interested to understand what kind of democracy PAD is educating to people, and how it differs with UDD’s view, and also other democracies in the rest of the world.
Quality comment or not?
6 
1
@Garuda, do you attend the PAD rallies as a supporter/believer or strictly as an observer?
Quality comment or not?
4 
0
“Garuda”:
First of all, the pictures of the PAD rallies you provided are all low viewpoint, wide angle lens pictures, which show basically the front row of protesters, and stretch out the perspective to make the images somewhat more interesting.
The same image taken with a slightly lesser wide angle, from a higher viewpoint will give you a more neutral assessment of the protesters that attended, which were at daytime on average days a few dozen at the stagearea, at night maybe 300, plus maybe another few hundred at the tent area, and a few dozen at the Thai Patriot Network stage.
I have taken such images from a higher elevation, but cannot put these images here into this comment. And again, i have not the time presently to write an article on these protests. There are presently more important matters i have to attend to than spending many hours, if not longer, than write here on new mandala an article for free just to win an argument.
As to Siam Samakkhi meetings not common: since their second public meeting on November 25th, 2011, i have attended two more until now (not counting Dr. Tul’s meetings), and in between i have been almost three months in Germany, and missed any meeting that may have been happening during that time. These meetings appear to me a lot more common nowadays than PAD meetings.
And no, on Oct. 7, 2008 at no time did the PAD cover the entire area you claim it has. The scene that day was that at each clash point up to several hundred hardcore protesters and guards engaged the police in these clashes, and the remainder if the area was quite empty. So ye, i stand by my count of about 10 000 PAD protesters that day.
Furthermore – that day the police was only on 3 locations at two points that day in the offensive – the locations were the doors to parliament, in the morning to open them, and again in the afternoon to open them again.
At all other clash sites that day, especially at the Metropolitan Police Headquarters/Royal Plaza corner at midday and at night, and at the escape route from parliament at Ratchawithi/Nakhorn Ratchasima Rd. intersection in the afternoon the police was on the defensive. and the attacker was the PAD. The police that day had one very clear assignment, which was to allow access to parliament. The police had no assignment to disperse the protesters beyond that, and did not attempt to either.
I am not privy to Chamlong’s and Pathumpong’s plans, and will not speculate about them. But i know what i have seen.
I also believe that you exaggerate the numbers of the latest PAD meeting, especially the fluctuation, and the numbers of protesters in the garden.
As to my views regarding what Pipob said about network building – yes, if the PAD would have done so in 2008 instead of disregarding election results, and occupying Government house and the airports it may have been better for the PAD (and Thai society in general). But the PAD did not – it went the way of radicalization, both in protest tactics, and in ideology, lost this way major mass support it had in 2006 (yet not in the claimed numbers – at no point did several hundred thousand PAD protesters gather ever, which you could clearly see from the numbers that fit Sanam Luang, where they held their largest protests: Sanam Luang, packed from one end to the next holds at most 100 000 people. The most the PAD ever had were somewhere in the range of 60 000 to 80 000 protesters).
The PAD has now to live with its history of very short term tactics, using increasingly radical ideologies, and being left with a hardcore of semi-cultist followers, while the reasonable PAD protesters that still attend do so without much enthusiasm, to say the least.
Pipob may have said what he did, but Sondhi said what Sondhi said. Who of the two do you think has more saying in the PAD?
In 2011 the PAD experienced severe infighting, and lost the support of Somsak and the Labor Unions, leaving a rump of the so called ASTV group, and allied the Santi Asoke sect. That’s it. No more hiso support, as Sondhi attacked HiSo PAD on the stage as not real PAD, no more military support after vicious attacks against Anupong, Prayudh and the whole military leadership over the Cambodia border issue, no more Chirmsak Pinthong, who was also heavily attacked on the stage, and naturally no more Democrat Party support after Abhisit, Kasit, etc were viciously attacked over the border issue.
The 2011 PAD backstage was very different than in 2006 and 2008: Hardly any visitors, most nights there were less than a dozen people backstage, including ASTV reporters. No more important people, no more glamor, no more media circus.
I have never bought the argument of “parliamentary dictatorship”. This was a paranoid idea from the start. On the opposite – in 2005/2006 the TRT party was already beginning to collapse. The emergence of the PAD is proof of that, as the most powerful leaders of the PAD (and a sizable portion of the ordinary protesters) were TRT supporters. Many powerful TRT politicians have begun leaving TRT already (such as Sanoh Tienthong visiting the 2006 PAD).
The ordinary TRT voters were more discerning that these former TRT supporters turned opponents gave them credit to, and have not been just uneducated tools, but voted based on policies that they favored, and and of course according to local politics (which are not just depending on “vote-buying” – which is another polemic argument regularly cited, but which, if looked at closer, are very complex mechanics, as are local politics).
And yes, i have also began covering this thing since Sondhi L’s Lumpini Park rallies, have been at PAD rallies, Caravan of the Poor rallies, etc.
And i have always attended openly, written my articles under my real name, and no pseudonym.
No Walk to Canossa, no hiding, and no running away from discussions with any side.
Quality comment or not?
11 
3
The point of debate here really is whether PAD still commands a considerable crowd. I personally believe that it is inappropriate to assert so early that this group is draining. PAD does not have an oceanic gathering like they did before, because it is not the high time for yellow mobilization.
I do think that many PAD supporters are milder royalist than those in Siam Samakkhi. Therefore the call to rally around the monarchy is less appealing than that of rally against Thaksin. At this point, many are watching how the new government is playing out the game.It cannot be more normal for people who are still waiting and seeing to stay home rather than go to the gathering.
But the fact that Thaksin’s return remains a highly relevant and attented issue for anybody (and there is a good chance that he will), one should not predict a silent PAD when the whole plan to bring Thaksin back eventually reveals in front of the public.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
” . . . to rally around the monarchy is less appealing than that of rally against Thaksin . . .” (#18)
You think so Bunny? During the celebration of HMK’s 80th birthday in December 2006, the image of the Thai “sea of yellow” lingers to my mind, of Thais young or old lining up the Rajdamnern area to get a glimpse and pay homage to their beloved King.
I am not so sure PAD could drum up 15,000 size crowd to protest and heckle should Thaksin return. But another ‘sea of yellow’ is possible anytime for the proper occasion when it comes to HMK.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Yes, Vichai, when do you think he’ll want them out again? Perhaps in a show against Thaksin?
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
superanonymous: (jonfernquest#5) “So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t? The legal mind never ceases to amaze.” “That’s a stunningly reductionist view of law which even the current crop of Republican hopefuls in the United States might find hard to swallow. People rape, kill and steal even though there are laws on the books against such activities. An injunction against coups would serve a similar purpose of defining the activity as outside of social norms. That may not be the answer to the problem, but surely it is part of the answer.”
What? Calling me a Republican? How utterly ridiculous !
No, Mr. Superanonymous, systematic lack of transparency characterizes just about every step of the law in Thailand Why?
Because people: are 1. not informed by local media about what is going on; and 2. people do not dare talk openly in public about important things (the prostitution ring case against a law professor and vice president at a university I taught at is a good case in point, absolutely zero public discussion or even announcement and active blocking of news on campus, ask Clifford Sloane); and most importantly 3. a discipline of law in the university that attracts huge numbers of want-to-be police and civil servants (most of their parents already are) with zero engagement with empirical reality. The sociology of law does engage empirically with the law. David Johnson at University of Hawaii has done a detailed study of the role of government criminal prosecutors in Japan as well as his study of capital punishment in Asia. This is what these students should be learning about, not what legal statues mean in the abstract. So, Mr. Superanonymous, your comment is completely spurious!
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
@Vichai
I don’t doubt the PAD will pour out upon Thaksin’s homecoming unless a deal has been reached and telivised for public accpetance. There will probably be a point when politicians, some academics and many media agencies come out and say “now, we have achieved consensus for reconciliation, so we agree to the return of Khun Shinawatra”.
I am not saying PAD supporters are not royalist. They are. But it is just milder in degree compaire with that in Siam Samakkhi. I am pretty sure a lot of those hyper royalists you saw in 2006 HMK birthday have signed up for Siam Samakkhi.
But you do have a point though. That is the equivalence constantly drawn between “protecting the monarch” and “keeping Thaksin out”. Therefore we can’t really distinguish those who simply hate Thaksin and those who simply love the King.
But the main message (and a personal guess too) I try to make is that anti-Thaksin is a more powerful mobilization cause for many milder royalist.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
(jonfernquest#21) So what’s your beef with Ajarn Worachet, then? Members and supporters of the Nitirat group promote their views and debate outside the classroom and on and off campus, in print and open public forums, encouraging people to “dare talk openly in public about important things.” Also, my ‘comment is spurious?’ Are you doubting than I am the real superanonymous? Not quite following your train of thought.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Inevitably the big question begging an answer: Will a Thaksin return now provoke another Thai coup?
It depends. If the Yingluck regime orchestrates a whitewash . . . to clear or pardon Thaksin of his legal sins, certainly a lot of Thai peopel will be very very angry.
Also inflation is getting very ugly in Thailand and soaring prices of basic items are starting to really hurt. Many workers also had been laid off after the floods and lots of small/medium sized factories could not reopen. The middle-east tensions had provoked thousands of overseas Thai workers, primarily from the Isan region, to suffer unpaid debts and unpaid overseas wages, while idled indefinitely.
Things are not so rosy now under Yingluck and many who had endured the Yingluck government’s recklessness and negligence during last floods are still angry and sufferring.
The ineptocratic Yingluck regime, me thinks is very very vulnerable . . . particularly to the dark lingering influence of Thaksin.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Vichai…………
You are in danger of becoming a broken record, endlessly playing the same three notes. Surely you don’t aspire to descend to LD’s level in the ongoing dialogue. Remove your blinders and you will see that apart from the never-say-die but nevertheless about-to-die remnants of the PAD/Yellow/Royalist BKK elite, Yingluck has the full backing of the majority of Thai citizens and now that the overwhelming flood emergency is receding into the past, and now that she is makng yet more highly successful and beneficial-to-Thailand overseas visits (especially compared to the feeble Abhisit/Kasit diplomatic efforts) and now that Thailand is on the verge of an economic boom, much of it based on higher domestic demand instead of simply cheap labor and overseas exports, she will clearly serve her full term and may even be re-elected for a 2nd full term. So you might be better off learning to appreciate her contribution and stop your endless sour-grapes and whining.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
The mentality that a coup may be necessary is what’s keeping Thailand in its present status of being third world. Just remember: ABC, Anything But a Coup.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Regarding jonfernquest’s attack on the criminal “justice” system of Thailand, today’s Bangkok Post quotes:
” court spokesman Sitthisak Wanachakit stressed that judges made their vow to His Majesty the King to work on the monarch’s behalf to ensure justice and refrain from prejudice.”
I wonder if HM agrees with jonfernquest, in which case if he is in the know he would surely sack his judges for violating their vow?
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
Ricky #27
If judges have made a vow to work on behalf of the monarch, it makes sense that red shirts and lese majeste suspects are never granted bails, while people like Sonthi will get released instantly.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
” . . .If judges have made a vow to work on behalf of the monarch . .”(#28)
That’s an unfactual IF and while admittedly Thai judges like Thai politicians could be bent (like in other places in the world), HMK only obliged the Thai judges to do their duty meticulously (court spokesman Sitthisak #27 Wanachakit meant well of course but has misquoted).
Define ‘Third World’ Dan D (#26). ‘Shady slim’ politicians like Thaksin and accommodating ‘coup’ opportunists will continue curse to Thai ‘democratic’ aspirations. But that said, Thailand’s economic march from developing to ‘nearly developed’ had not been interrupted. And sooner rather than later, Thailand’s continuing rapid economic development will inexorably accelerate Thai people’s demand for better government and better accountability. With economic development and political maturity will be the end of Reds and Yellows, and the Thaksins and Sonthis wannabes. And the monarchy after HMK reign will have to adapt or fade.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
“superanonymous // Mar 23, 2012 at 7:31 pm (jonfernquest#21) So what’s your beef with Ajarn Worachet, then? Members and supporters of the Nitirat group promote their views and debate outside the classroom and on and off campus, in print and open public forums, encouraging people to “dare talk openly in public about important things.” Also, my ‘comment is spurious?’ Are you doubting than I am the real superanonymous? Not quite following your train of thought.”
1. Why would you start your drive to “talk openly” with the one area that you know is going to incite anger and hatred (albeit remaining calm and stoic like a Boddhisatva in the face of LM does seem like a better way to honour the monarch of a Buddhist country then violent words and action (punching in face, effectively assaulting and murdering people with words, as examples in this very blog have shown) as some have shamefully done).
2. But given that is the way people behave, choosing LM really just seems like a form of grandstanding, drawing attention to yourself and trying to make yourself into some kind of intellectual hero with a certain group of western intellectuals who prioritize “freedom of speech” issues over real injustices or “double standards” that are a little harder to track down and document (i.e. real physical or economic harm done to other people, catalog of real life cases available upon request) Grandstanding was exactly what the LM poster boy Harry was all about with his Panama hat and ardent desire to find a controversial issue to become a great writer and in the end he got his 15 minutes of fame on CNN.
3. An LM mentality pervades just about every nook and cranny of public life in Thailand and especially that dealing with laws, law enforcement and the media and one major vehicle for this is the defamation suit, both actual use & threat of actual use even against major media outlets, coupled with the long long delays & uncertainty in discovering the verdict and making the whole issue complete taboo to discuss in public. Good truth-honouring people are thrown in jail, get bricks thrown through the windows of their car and all the while the defamation suit enjoins them from talking about these injustices (#1 #2). Generalized defamation suit mentality and its cultural roots in face and loss of face is the real prior problem here.
4. Finally and most importantly, you want to really help people as a law professor? then focus on real injustice. Get out of the air-conditioned office and talk to rural people (like an anthropologist in the field) and make a catalogue of injustices , real life “double standards” that the red shirts talk about. I think they are absolutely right about this but then they lapse into lazy ideology and blame the bogey man “amat” for all these double standards that are never actually enumerated in all their horrid detail, which is just intellectual laziness and actually a huge distraction from solving the real injustices in their own backyard. Prove to me that it isn’t actually some petty Jao Phaw feudal lord in their own backyard that is their actual oppressor. It is 100 times easier for locals to get away with it, because there is no hyperlocal media shining the light of truth on what they are doing. Need more chapters like Pasuk & Baker’s Thai Capital chapters on hyperlocal political economy. (“hyperlocal” is used here because “local” sometimes just means “Thailand”, by “hyperlocal media” I mean at the provincial level, See Investigating Local Governments: A Manual for reporters, Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism). Anyway, I could go on and on and even start writing a book on this subject, but I have a 9 to 5 job, so bye
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
“The mentality that a coup may be necessary is what’s keeping Thailand in its present status of being third world. Just remember: ABC, Anything But a Coup.”
While I agree with the tenor of your remarks, Dan D, the problem is that ABC can mean that the government will not exercise its legitimate authority in areas where there is any danger of tipping off a coup such as deciding on who should be in charge of the armed forces, whether the armed forces should submit to political control and matters such as lese majeste, or whether Thaksin should be amnestied.
So I don’t necessarily agree. The best thing for Thailand would be if the armed forces completely renounce the coup option. As it is, their position seems to be that the conditions for a coup are not present – but of course they could be tomorrow or next year. That decision still seems to be one that the army has been granted the right to make The next best thing would be a coup that fails completely and brings no violence and which puts the whole coup-making process under general contempt.
I’m not sure what the worst option would be. A successful coup with the necessary repression that would involve or a coup that is bitterly and violently contested.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0
An unsuccesful coup because of people oppposition would change the Thai political landscape completely. If one is attempted, this is now a real possibility. Lets hope things resolve through acceptance of political reality as a people opposed coup is likely to be bloody.
However, the Democrats frantic and panicky resistance of anything that smacks of reconcilliation from neutral groups even when the previous coup leader supports it indicates a fairly big residue of extemists in positions of power with a powerful influence over a large minority.
This extremisim doesnt augur well for the country moving forward based on the democratic decisions of the Thai people unfortuanately.
Quality comment or not?
0 
0