Nobody will want to look like a fool on 1 April in Burma this year. So will you take a punt on who will triumph? For political analysts, predictions are always risky business. We pretty much all have a habit of getting it wrong. But, naturally enough, everyone wants to know how well Aung San Suu Kyi will fare in Sunday’s by-election.
This by-election, triggered by the promotion of elected represetantives to ministerial posts, sees Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy fighting to get a toe-hold in the country’s military-dominated legislatures. It is almost guaranteed Aung San Suu Kyi will win her seat and that a fair number of other candidates from her party will also find themselves in parliament.
Over the coming days I will be offering various quick assessments of the situation and figured it worth getting started now.
- It is much more dangerous for President Thein Sein if Aung San Suu Kyi fails to win her seat. Such an outcome would lead to inevitable cries of vote-rigging and could spark an uncontrollable backlash. It may even spell the end of the nascent democratising project. To further his wide-ranging agenda, Thein Sein, and his allies, need Aung San Suu Kyi in parliament. After fighting for so many years to keep her sidelined it is a remarkable change of fortunes.
- Aung San Suu Kyi’s election will legitimise the legislative process and catalyse a number of other changes, including more aggressive efforts to dismantle Western sanctions. Those efforts are well-and-truly overdue but the trigger of Aung San Suu Kyi’s election is the perfect justification for developing more considered policies towards Burma.
- Her election has particular implications for how we see the country’s parliament. According to a very well-informed correspondent based in Yangon, “One thing is certain. When one of the world’s most famous dissidents takes her seat shortly after the by-elections, Burma’s national parliament will emerge from the shadows.”
- At the same time, the election of National League for Democracy representatives will not be a panacea for Burma’s ills. Aung San Suu Kyi has yet to be tested by life as a professional politician. My guess is that the learning curve will be steep and the challenges many. She may end up disappointing some of her most ardent supporters.
- Even after Aung San Suu Kyi is elected the conumdrums presented by ethnic politics will remain. Some thoughts on that issue, including my own, are available here and here, among other places.
For those who are interested, there is a short ANU video where I talk about a range of these issues in more detail.
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And before I forget — on 1 April, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democray is contesting 44 of the constituencies that are up for grabs (some votes were recently postponed due to the war in Kachin State).
Now to your prediction: how many do you think the NLD will win?
Finally an article that unequivocally illustrate the false hood of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as anything else, but supported by majority within Myanmar.
The repeated lies of US and EU media that make DASSK as nothing less than the inimitable icon of democracy, will be tested soon, with predictable result.
Not to worry she will be elected, given the Generals/Thein Sein assistance here:
http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/6810-anti-suu-kyi-leaflets-in-kawhmu-focus-on-her-support-of-sanctions.html
To silence the truth enabling an NLD shoo-in.
One might hope she will have a thick skin specially not fessing up to her advocacy that brought on the useless careless policy of the West.
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If the conversations I’ve had with Kachins recently are any indication “the conumdrums presented by ethnic politics” is putting it mildly; they were less than happy with her. I wonder why Aung San Suu Kyi isn’t making the delay of voting in the Kachin State more of an issue. Maybe Lintner is right, and she’s getting advice from the Western powers. If Tony Abbott is advising her, that would explain a lot: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/26/10239774-australias-gillard-dragged-away-from-aboriginal-rights-protest.
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Nich,
#1. They will let her in and a ministerial position already earmarked for her to highlight this as ‘power sharing’ to the rest of the world . It will be a high profile but toothless portfolio with a good potential to fail like health or education, perhaps even industry to get her on side against the workers in all these SEZs. So there you go including #s 2, 3 and 4.
It dawned on the generals rather belatedly as their own crisis deepened that she’s the ace in the deck in this game, so what was once politically untenable – lifting the sanctions – now becomes the right thing to do as clamoured for so long by the business class, domestic, expat and international.
She may not fall for it hook, line and sinker. But it will be very tempting. They are bound to make it so.
#5. It was a bold move on her part to declare she wishes to talk to the KIO. But yes, she must question the reason behind their decision not to poll in Kachin State and push for reinstating the ballot.
April Fool’s polls will see her into parliament. Not sure about the rest of the NLD candidates unless they let the international observers do what they are supposed to do unhindered. Even that may happen since they have wised up, back in the game and indeed seem to be on a roll. You could hear them sing, “Everything’s going our way”.
plan B,
Give over and get over it.
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Aung San Suu Kyi will get in this parliament thing allright. Even if she is dead. What particular crap she would become is pure academic.
Hard to say about NLD. People are sick of being told what to do and what to think by others and NLD is no different to USDP or PQRST or any other. Just some familiar faces.
No one really ask what people want any way. They simply give their own version of what is good for you.
Aung San Suu Kyi thing is simple “faith”. Like Christianity or Buddhism or Islam. People put blind faith in her and her alone. That’s all. There is NOTHING to show what difference she has made in the last year except inviting in all the pigs to the trough.
Her naivety, elitist attitude and poor understanding or at least poor showing of the understanding of the real issues of the people thus far, there is likely to be backlash than a real progress.
Esoteric high school essay things can take one only thus far in real world where lands are daily confiscated, girls are daily raped, people are daily tortured and all sorts of foreigners are seen to be prospering while the Burmese are finding hard to eat a meal a day.
With all the dominant news outlets and “political Parties’ all for the fake election and fake constitution ignoring the daily grime of the people, no one would know how much built up pressure is there already.
People in the street will have no faith in the government with or without Aung San Suu Kyi. Immediate onslaught of money people coming in with slave jobs will simply give fodder for ignition.
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A poll of 40 of the commentariat closed in Yangon this afternoon. Predictions of the number of seats that will be won by the USDP range from 1 to 17. Either a clueless commentariat or a very hard-to-call event.
Interestingly, those based outside the country are all at the low end of USDP numbers, and those based inside are at the high end.
Both major parties have very high expectations and tt is clear that one of them will fall well short of its own bottom-line. The reaction of the “failing” party may be as significant as the actual results.
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#5
Can’t claim to be the most cynical no more.
Now that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is placed where she has always belong, that most here above have agreed, it is time to empower the mass with the most basic need that will enable them to voice their will.
Ko Moe Aung
Not until the West get it right about Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s true worth.
The unconscionable consequences of the useless careless policy, in her name can then be address.
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For those who want to follow the latest on the by-elections on April 1, The Myanmar Times will have coverage and updates on our website (www.mmtimes.com and http://www.myanmar.mmtimes.com/) and Facebook page throughout the day.
And of course you can check out our by-elections preview as well (http://www.mmtimes.com/2012/feature/621/index.html).
NLD to win 30-35 seats, although I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a number of appeals filed in the coming weeks. Resolving these disputes is likely to be a major headache for the election commission.
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I think Win Nld
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