“And now the end is here. And so I face the final curtain. My friend, I’ll say it clear. I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain. I’ve lived a life that is full. I traveled each and every highway. And more, much more than this, I did it my way…”
As Thaksin and his backup singers sang Frank Sinatra’s My Way in front of a crowd of 30,000 Red Shirts (Thaksin’s own estimate) celebrating the Songkran Festival in Cambodia, he seemed at ease about his prospect of returning home. “I can smell the air of my mother land. This year I’m confident it’s a good year. It’s an auspicious year as the Prince will turn 60 and the Queen will turn 80. There are a lot of indications that I’m going to be back with my fellow brothers and sisters,” proclaimed Thaksin.
Late in March 2012, Thai PBS program Tob Jode held a special roundtable on what Thailand would look like upon Thaksin’s return (คุยเรื่องทักษิณกลับบ้าน). The discussants were: 1) Sombat Boon-ngam-anong (Red Sunday); 2) Dr. Tul Sitthisomwong (Multi-colored Group); 3) Pravit Rojanapruk (The Nation); and 4) Prasong Lert-rattanawisut (Issara Institute).
Below are some excerpts from the round table.
Sombat
Mass protests will occur when the moment is right, especially upon Thaksin’s return. Some people would do anything to fight Thaksin, while others would do anything for him. When Thaksin returns, both groups will come out to the streets.
If article 309 is done away with, Thaksin will return. Thaksin has to think much harder whether he would still be alive when he’s back home. He was nearly assassinated even when he was prime minister.
Thaksin’s problems are three fold. First, he has too many fans. Second, Thailand may get to a point where his party will continue to win election. Third, the old barami are losing their influence. All of this means Thaksin has many enemies. Thaksin is part of the problem and has to be brought back to solve it.
If Thaksin doesn’t return, there will be status quo in Thai society. It will remain as divided as it is, nothing will improve. We can’t seem to move beyond Thaksin. If Thaksin decides to lessen his own political role, the conflict will be over.
Tul
The forces opposing Thaksin are still strong. Mass mobilization would occur as soon as people realize Thaksin’s return is imminent. If Thaksin would be given amnesty, some 300,000 people will be out on the streets. Thaksin is destroying Thai society and deepening the divide. My hatred towards Thaksin is logical and reasonable. Thaksin exploits the differences within Thai society for his own political gains.
Should Thaksin not come back, things will be the same. It’s unclear how we can achieve reconciliation. The bigger question is how would the Yingluck government go on. Whether or not he returns, Thaksin’s crimes will remain.
Pravit
Both camps will mobilize their forces to oppose/support Thaksin. Thai society has become so polarized; it’s divided between hatred and absolute devotion towards Thaksin. Thaksin has become a national obsession. The media is no exception to this. The middle ground has become a void. We can’t agree to disagree.
The Red Shirts can’t accept the hypocrisy in Thai society. Millions of Thaksin supports do not understand why there is no level playing field among all public officials, why Thaksin was solely targeted.
It might be a good thing for the Yingluck government if her brother does not return. At least it might buy time for people to cool off…become more mature. Our political system is in transition. How do we respond to the now awakened poorer, long neglected, section of society?
Prasong
The only way Yingluck would let her brother return home would be via amnesty. But Thaksin is truly guilty for both the land deal and the Shin Corp sales.
Sources from Pheua Thai told me that if Thaksin returns, some inside the party would lose their interests. Right now they exploit their relationship with Thaksin (or his party) for their own benefits but once he’s back, he would reconsolidate his power and many will lose out.
Tul’s comments make the myopia and double standards on display in this standoff very clear.
“My hatred towards Thaksin is logical and reasonable” – Hatred reasonable? Hatred logical?
“Thaksin is destroying Thai society and deepening the divide. … Thaksin exploits the differences within Thai society for his own political gains.” – he is alone in this?
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> “in front of a crowd of 30,000 Red Shirts celebrating the Songkran Festival in Cambodia”
Drop the Red Shirt hype please. You could at least have inserted “up to” like the AFP report: “Up to 30,000 people had gathered at the site, according to Siem Reap deputy provincial governor Bun Tharith, although an AFP reporter at the scene said the crowd appeared closer to 10,000“.
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In Khmer ‘Siem Reap’ translates roughly as ‘Thais defeated’….. So the joke is on the tourists… As if Thaksin’s massacre of a great Beatles song wasn’t funny enough….. Along with the excruciating, rictus grins of his appalled and embarrassed dollar-a-day-flunkies…. No one dares tell the boss he can’t sing?…. Certainly not poor old Thida who once again is elbowed to the back by one big thug or another….
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Re: Jon – I had it in the footnote somewhere that 30,000 was Thaksin’s own estimate. Apology that the footnotes were not shown.
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“My Way” was originally a French song – the English lyrics were written by Paul Anka – it has never even been part of the Beatles repertoire…
You’re probably confusing the song with “Something”, which was written by George Harrison. Sinatra also recorded this, and thought it the greatest love song ever written.
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Agree with MangoBoy.
Be it love or hatred, political sentiments are constantly created or exaggerated purposely in Thailand. Thaksin is not alone in this.
When Thaksin can at least return on legitimate legal ground, he will move on to woo those who are now against him to fall in love with him again. Once those who create the hatred against him also agree to the lucrative reconciliation plan, they take no effort to drop accusations against Thaksin.
There will be a time Thaksin and Prem shaking hands and smiling or Thaksin and Abhisit shaking hands and smiling.
But really what Thaksin needs is just a photo where the King smiles at him.
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Jayzee…. No.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5caKcwe6sM&feature=share
Let it Be was the Beatles last released album although the penultimate album recorded. My sympathies are with Sir Paul Macartney who, being nearly 70, shouldn’t be forced to see his oeuvre so brutally abused by a murderously tone deaf oligarch.
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May our dear Thaksin see the light and decide to stay abroad for the rest of his ife, as well as refrain from meddling in Thai politics, and may our dear Tul go back to medicine full time to amend the shortage of physicians outside Bangkok.
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“Jon Wright”:
No Red Shirt hype, but this reporter here [me] who was at the scene thinks that 30 000 is a good estimate of the crowd. About 50 000 chairs were prepared at the stage area, and far more than half were occupied. This also correspondents to my sources in the Thai intelligence apparatus, who estimated the same number from the departures at the border checkpoints.
I plan to do a little story on this event here, and you can see then images of the crowd.
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There shouldn’t be any doubt Thaksin will return to Thailand; the only questions are when, how, and what happens afterward.
As an aside, facts are stubborn things; more people have been murdered while performing “I did it my Way” than all other Karaoke songs combined.
… and that’s the way it is.
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Perhaps my own mangled lyrics of the Tony Orlando song is more appropriate:
“I’m comin’ home and I won’t do my time
Because I’ve got to know what is and isn’t mine
If you received my letter telling you I’d soon be there
Then you’ll know just what to do
If you still want me
If you still want me”
BTW I’ve not received any letter
and “I really never wanted HIM back!”
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Nick: > “No Red Shirt hype, but this reporter here [me] who was at the scene …”
Any idea why your estimate should diverge so markedly with the one made by the ‘AFP reporter at the scene’ (10,000)?
> “who estimated the same number from the departures at the border checkpoints”
Do note that they were getting a free pass for Angkor Wat.
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“Jon Wright”:
“Any idea why your estimate should diverge so markedly with the one made by the ‘AFP reporter at the scene’ (10,000)?”
No idea as AFP did not disclose their methodology of counting or identity of their reporter. Was it a stringer, local staff, or a reporter with extensive experience in large crowds?
I can only say that not many reporters and journalists were present, some Thai reporters of Thai publications i know and local Cambodian reporters, and only one from the usual Bangkok crowd.
Just because the label ‘AFP’ is attached does not make a number automatically accurate as human error or inexperience in such events can sway a number easily. That is why i always try to confirm numbers via different sources, and I have disclosed my sources here.
Yes, i do know that Red Shirts got into Angkor Wat for free. So did i, when i have shown my Press Pass from the rally to the entry check point. At the Angkor Wat event more reporters were present than during the rally the evening before. Still, it was mostly Thai reporters and local Cambodian reporters.
Most Bangkok based western reporters, i believe, were tired from their Burma trips, and went on a Songkran holiday.
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I’ve just posted a short piece on Asian Correspondent about the Thai English language media’s obsession with Thaksin.
It’s not really aimed at NM or posters here as I know both NM and the regulars here do a lot to broaden the debate.
“Is another oped about Thaksin imminent? http://bit.ly/HPRFDJ“
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Thaksin is just waiting for the King to die , and then he is home free .
Not rocket science really, just plain political intelligence .
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Nick Nostitz: I don’t think the AFP reporter was just guesstimating – reading the “the crowd appeared closer to 10,000″ quote makes it sound like they had the 30,000 figure in mind and they were disputing that figure with some confidence and with some emphasis. You seem to want to profess some kind of expertise with estimating crowd numbers and I skimmed over your long, repeated and tedious arguments in another thread. AFP are credible as far as I’m concerned. I’ve not come across another repetition of the 30,000 number – all the usual credible sources simply said ‘thousands’.
BTW why do you put my name in quotes?
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(c13)
“Do note that they were getting a free pass for Angkor Wat.”
Do I detect a switch from disputing the crowd size to now questioning the (insert number here) attendees’ motives for being there?
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By the standards of his normal performance in such exercises, The Notion‘s Tulsathit makes a very rare valid point about Thaksin’s substitution of a particular Thai phrase into that ear-straining rendition of “Let It Be”.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/video/6648
Curiously, the point is muddled to the extent of being lost in Tulsie’s opinion piece on the same day – see the final paragraph:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Diplomatically-confused-about-Thaksin-Let-it-be-30180108.html
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“Jon Wright”:
I always put the names of people i address here in quotes.
The only thing that is tedious here is arguing about numbers with somebody [you] who has not even been there, and who seems to have not much an idea of how wire services work. AFP also consists only of humans, and none of the in these protests experienced AFP reporters have been there, who also have the contacts necessary to confirm these numbers.
Like it or not, there is no journalist who has spent more time covering the protests of the past 6 years than me – on all sides. And if you google my name, you may find that AFP has on several occasions cited me as well.
Anything above a few hundred people begins getting difficult to guess, and the more people the margin of error gets bigger, especially when a large amount of people gather at a place that one is not familiar with.
That is why you need additional sources of information, which i have presented here: the number of prepared chairs at the stage area, and my proven sources in the Thai intelligence apparatus, who themselves came to their numbers, corresponding to the guess based on the amount of occupied chairs, by the amount of Red Shirts crossing the border check points.
And i have already written that i am working on a little story which will also include photos of the crowd. Just be patient.
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Nick: I trust AFP, who committed their estimate to an actual story above you, who prefers to endlessly argue the toss in the comments section(s) of a blog. I use AFP as the primary source in my work so I know very well how they work. You call yourself a journalist but I just cannot parse your first paragraph at all and sorry but you can’t spell the name of the last paper you worked for.
SteveCM: No, I’m questioning where they might have been at any particular point during the weekend. This article says Thaksin was “…in front of a crowd of …”.
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“Jon Wright”:
Whatever.
How fortunate i do not depend on your endorsement, whoever you may be. And yes, thank you, there is a tendency of a certain ilk found on both sides in this highly charged atmosphere to use as primary source in their “work” whatever corresponds to their own opinion. Fortunately i rarely encounter those during “my” work, as they rarely tend to be on the ground – which is where i prefer to be.
And now, i would suggest to close this increasingly tedious debate.
Thank you for your opinion, and i will promise to try to improve my spelling…
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The AFP is most certainly not infallible. They have had some very good reporters in Cambodia and also some absolutely terrible ones who were little more than local hire gap year kids sprouted laterally from the Cambodia Daily and grateful for beans. I have no idea who is manning the bureau there now…. Nick Nostitz tends very much to be as scrupulous as he possibly can be with his facts…. And estimating crowds is always exactly that…. Estimation.
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Nick: It is such a display of blinkered zealotry to make pronouncements on someone’s selection of a particular news service without knowing the intended use. The choice has nothing whatsoever to do with ‘opinion’. My participation in this thread has nothing to do with ‘opinion’ – it’s to do with facts.
Dan: I can’t offer you much on AFP Cambodia but for me their main mess-up lately was their reporting of the large earthquake off Sumatra the other week.
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“Jon Wright”:
“My participation in this thread has nothing to do with ‘opinion’ – it’s to do with facts.”
Such as the fact that for someone who hasn’t been at the event in Cambodia, “can’t offer you much on AFP Cambodia”, yet still seem to have a need to dispute my estimate here reasoning that “AFP are credible” and that you “use AFP as the primary source”, but at the same time point out their “main mess-up lately”…?
Thank you again for “participation in this thread” – it brought some much needed comic relief.
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So When then?
The PAD is dead just waiting to be buried and done with. Even the die-hard Thaksinites journalists (like Spooner) are getting impatient reduced to bickering about ‘sizes’ of Thaksin groupies . . . .
I am baffled and amazed by Thaksin’s cowardice. His people is waiting for him to start personally dancing in Bangkok streets.
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Nick: It’s all about balance. I’m not obsessed with any particular country or topic and I’m on no mission to represent AFP as perfect – why would I want to do that? Oh just to illustrate the headlong abandon with which you’ve sidetracked yourself on this ‘primary source’ thing I’ll divulge one little fact – it wasn’t me who made that choice!
Yes Nick of course I’ll continue to doubt your estimate. You’ve shown yourself as lacking balance, displaying an un-becoming zealotry.
The Straits Times (where has the reference from your earlier post gone?) might feel the same as they used the AFP story and the “closer to 10,000″ quote. Quite comical that.
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As a former wire service reporter (I spent 17 years with Reuters) I can confirm that AFP’s estimate of crowd size should be treated with great caution. All the wire agencies employ staff and stringers of widely varying degrees of competence, and to estimate crowd size properly is a very difficult task. Most of the time, the wire agencies go with a very rough guesstimate.
Those of us familiar with Nick Nostitz’s work also know that one of the main reasons he is such an excellent journalist is that he is scrupulously honest and never allows assumptions or prejudices to get in the way of his reporting. He reports what he sees and hears, and takes great care to verify what he writes. He is a very credible source indeed. AFP takes far less care than Nick to verify facts.
It’s staggering to me that anyone with any knowledge of Thailand, or of how journalists work, would seriously claim that AFP (or Reuters, AP, Bloomberg etc) are a more reliable source than Nick Nostitz about an event where Nick was personally on the scene.
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“Jon Wright”:
Over the past couple of years many people attempted to discredit my work about the sociopolitical strife that Thailand is facing – some were anonymous, others no-names, and some big names as well (mostly they slag me off behind my back, but one way or the other, sooner or later – i always get to hear of this).
What is quite similar in each of these attempts that it came from people that rarely are seen in the field, generally use personal insults instead of factual arguments, and when put under scrutiny are themselves rather liberal with facts and/or have little access to facts about the topic they have strong opinions about.
I usually offer then the same – please prove me wrong, and i will incorporate this criticism in my work, as constructive criticism only improves my work. This generally though is either answered with silence, or with further personal attacks. Most of these people soon disappear, as i am sure you will as well.
As annoying it is, it is also very boring, and you are just another one in a long line of such predecessors.
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Nick is an absolute stickler for facts even when he might find them uncomfortable. This is hard wired into his being… He is obsessively meticulous. I have no problem with someone taking issue with some of his conclusions. I do myself… but he doesn’t mess about with facts. He gets as close to them as he can, at some personal risk to himself on occasion. Just the way he is.
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How ironic that Nick is backed up by the other guy who’s always on the cusp of publishing a piece of great import but can never seem to get it out of the door! Yes, Reuters make mistakes, as I think you’re fond of pointing out – they made a very topical one, saying that the visit was “Thaksin’s closest to Thailand” – after he had just flown in from Vientiane!
> “Most of the time, the wire agencies go with a very rough guesstimate.”
Indeed AFP did – they simply offered: “appeared closer to 10,000″.
> “he is scrupulously honest and never allows assumptions or prejudices to get in the way of his reporting.”
But what about his commenting? Unfortunately we have no reporting to discuss. Your comment was written before mine appeared so you’ll now know for sure that I think your “assumptions and prejudices” take is laughable … oh but you’re just talking about his reports right?
Now Andrew, allow me to take you back to the beginning of the thread. At issue is whether Thaksin, at 19:20 on Sat the 14th April, was standing in front of 30,000 Red Shirts. Nobody has provided such an estimate. Nick has added his own conjecture as to how many people, in total, were at a rally at an unstated time. AFP have somewhat emphatically, and in a very timely manner, contradicted the 30,000 figure. Even Bun Tarith estimated up to 30,000!
Andrew, you might enjoy reading Nick’s answers to his own questions, wherever they might be published. I’m sure he’s written some great stuff (but alas, nothing on Siem Reap). But providing answers to other people’s questions is a completely different kettle of fish. So many talented people fail at comprehension – especially when they’re politically or emotionally involved. It’s quite obvious in this thread that Nick’s zealotry and defensiveness cloud his judgement – as the reply I posted while you were writing yours, and the one before that make clear. Being on the scene can count for little when you’re compromised.
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Dan (c30)
Nick is an absolute stickler for facts even when he might find them uncomfortable.
I’m struggling to think what “facts” Nick would find “uncomfortable”. My experience of his published work is that he straightforwardly reports what he finds. His “facts” are checked before before being presented as such – and his impressions/reactions are clearly identified as such. That he troubles to go looking in places which most Thai media and much of the non-Thai media see fit to ignore seems enough for some to brand him as having a partisan agenda. If it’s “zealotry” (c27) to report those otherwise largely overlooked aspects, then – plainly – I’ve been using the wrong kind of dictionary.
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Nick, you remind me of another Thailand commentator, same initials as the author of this piece, who loves dishing it out then runs around screaming “personal attacks …” when it he’s pulled up on it.
Nick, don’t be thin-skinned! I’m not attempting to discredit your work. I don’t know where to find it. Some info for you: this is the comments section of a blog! You said I seem, “… to have not much an idea of how wire services work”, in your third post. On what basis? You’ve just been put ‘under scrutiny’ and you’ve just totally failed to address my last two posts. I’ve explained how you jumped to conclusions about my saying I use AFP. You’ve run nearly the whole gamut of defensive postures now and it’s actually a bit late for you to be addressing the issue – the bell’s gone and all the candidates have packed up their pencils and gone home.
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And just to add…. I loathe and detest the Shinawatra/Yubamrung gangster cabal that cynically run the fraudulent and childishly violent Red shirt joke of a political movement (almost as as much as I loathe the incipient fascist PAD thugs and Margaret Thatcher)… And I have always found Nick to be a stimulating and thoughtful interlocuter.
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Steve CM (#30)
“I’m struggling to think what “facts” Nick would find “uncomfortable”.
Why?…. Is there anything else much you struggle with?….
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What’s the point gentlemen?
I’ll gladly double the estimated crowd size to 60K or even 100K, but what does an inflated or deflated estimate of crowd size gawking at Thaksin mean?
Answer: nothing much really.
Thaksin still sneers while he hides from the Thai courts. Yingluck still miserably orates in her mangled English. Potjaman still runs and funds Peau Thai Party. And divided Thailand continues to prosper, while large segments endure their oppressive debts and soaring costs of daily living.
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Vichai N: If you add “Thaksin’s own estimate” I suppose it wouldn’t matter too much.
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“Those of us familiar with Nick Nostitz’s work also know that one of the main reasons he is such an excellent journalist is that he is scrupulously honest and never allows assumptions or prejudices to get in the way of his reporting.” (Marshall #28)
Well Marshall I am not sure about that. Nostitz certainly ‘tries’.
But there is that subtle, but very palpable ‘Red’ tone, or sympathy, to nearly every Nostitz article and photo published. Were armed ‘black clad ninjas’ freely mixing it up with the Red Shirts during the Year 2010 mayhems? Nostitz almost grudgingly admitted ‘yes’, then ceased making further comments. Were armed ‘black clad ninjas’ taking orders from the Red Shirt leaders? Nostitz’s camera angles and observant eyes were diverted elsewhere.
But that is Vichai’s own personal impression of course so really don’t pay me no mind.
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I recall going down to Ratchaprasong to see Abhisit and his party during the election campaign. Not many managed to show up there. Not nearly as many who went to view Thaksin in Cambodia. But I guess all those going to Cambodia were paid dupes, whereas those going to see Abhisit were well-educated and thinking types.
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“Vichai N”:
“Were armed ‘black clad ninjas’ freely mixing it up with the Red Shirts during the Year 2010 mayhems? Nostitz almost grudgingly admitted ‘yes’, then ceased making further comments. ”
No – i did not “grudgingly admit” to this. I have without any grudge stated already during the May 2010 events that i have ran into armed militants in the Red Shirts, if you go back to one of the comments in the killing zone story.
And furthermore, i have on several occasions in public also, without any grudge, confirmed their existence, such as in a public meeting of the TRCT.
I will make further comments when i have finished investigating this issue. But i will do this only in proper context, and not to satisfy certain partisan agendas. Which means – this issue will be part of a book i am working on.
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#39 “But I guess all those going to Cambodia were paid dupes, whereas those going to see Abhisit were well-educated and thinking types.”
Er… Really?…. What a piece of simplistic and idiotic rhetoric. Have you ever been to Toscana Valley in Khao Yai?…. Do you know just how the elite leadership of the Red Shirt movement works? They are the elites. Do you understand that money really does talk? Do you understand the cynical brutality of a man like Chalermeone Yubamrung? This was a man who was lined up for government office throughout the Red shirt occupation of Bangkok…. Yet now worthy commentators like Ji call him a ‘gangster politician’ and say he was never a Red Shirt etc…. Well the Red Shirts put him there and he is planning to kill people. Killing people is a popular political move in Thailand…. Why didn’t they address the issue of who their brutal and violent acts were going to put into power?…. Banharn…. Chalerm…. Thaksin in drag….. All the same cynical and vicious old faces…. It’s hardly a fresh start is it?….. But Ralph…. Why don’t you continue to propagate simplistic myth and dozy propaganda with a hint of vitriol?…. Its far easier, after all, than addressing the reality of who the Red Shirt leadership put into power and how…
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“Dan”:
“Its far easier, after all, than addressing the reality of who the Red Shirt leadership put into power and how…”
Thai politics are very complicated. I can only state that the ordinary Red Shirts are quite aware of these complications, especially that Thai society and politics is still in a process of transformation, and that certain uncomfortable compromises are unfortunate part of this game. As you mentioned Chalerm, here in this article i have written briefly about how some Red Shirts feel about him:
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2012/04/10/a-red-shirt-songkran-party-and-amnesty-thoughts/
I would also suggest to have a look at politicians such as Suthep and Nevin on the other side, also the many local godfather who run under the Democrat Party banner. While well spoken Abhisit is the nice face of the Democrat Party, there is also another side to this. As you know quite well.
The Red Shirt leadership is also quite complex, made up of people of varied backgrounds, and there is not just one opinion on the issues you mention, and how to handle these structural problems of this society, or on the strategies to employ on how to reach their lofty goal of a more democratic Thailand.
While it is quite easy to vent one’s disappointment by loathing this or the other side, i think it is of more importance to accept that Thailand is in a historical period of transformation and development – which is an ongoing process – and to learn the intricacies of this fascinating period of time.
If you look at somewhat similar periods in other societies, you can also see that this was never a clean and romantic struggle of good against evil. While, for example, Martin Luther in his reformation tried to reform the catholic church – a rather lofty goal, he has also written some of vilest antisemitic pamphlets ever.
In Germany’s 1848 revolution initially you had a common agreement to have a parliament, only then things collapsed when radicals and reformers could not agree, and even fought with each other, giving the aristocratic establishment the space to destroy them all.
etc.
What i try to say here is that the current situation is in the context of enormous transformations in Thai history far beyond this or the other personality involved on this or the other side. If this will lead to more democratization, or to a huge mess, or will be a failed attempt – we do not know yet.
What though we can say is that it is a necessary conflict, and inevitable. It had to happen, and i would suggest to live with it. Loathing it won’t help you.
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#42 Nick
I agree with much of what you say. I would certainly agree with you that there is not really any difference between a man like Chalerm and a man like Suthep…. We have been through all this before….. One very important point though is that periods of transformation do not always have a positive outcome….. Look at the French Revolution… It didn’t turn up liberty, it turned up a brand new despot named Napoleon Bonaparte and it took 15 years and untold misery before he was finally winkled out (for the second time) by Wellington and Blucher at the Battle of Waterloo (or Mon Saint Jean to the French) in 1815 and exiled to St Helena which was a lot further away than Elba…. Thaksin is very similar in character to Napoleon Bonaparte and he engenders a very similar loyalty as despots are occasionally won’t to do…. Even elected ones such as Thaksin Shinawatra…. There is such a thing as an elective autocracy…. Loathing is a very reasonable human reaction when faced with murderers and despots. I also agree with you that there are thinking people amongst the red shirts who see through Thaksin and have worthy aims. I wish them well. The problem is that, as I think you will agree, they are vastly outnumbered by the Thakisn loving throng who you have just been documenting in your normal thorough and engaging style.
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“Were armed ‘black clad ninjas’ taking orders from the Red Shirt leaders?” Nostitz prudently decline to answer or comment.
But perhaps Nostitz does not need to. After all it is common public knowledge (thru reports from The Wall Street Journal and NY Times) that the Red/Black Shirts violence were directed by the late Gen. Khattiya, who confessed that he reported only directly to Thaksin and no other. Nostitz own admission that ‘armed black clad ninjas’ were freely mingling (meaning singing, laughing, eating and fighting together) with the Red Shirts must mean Thaksin/Khattiya ordered it so.
Now that is an important point and people should NOT forget that the violence, deaths, maimings, bombings and rampant arson/torching during May2010 was being directed by the Red Shirt leadership. There certainly was butchery during May2010 at Bangkok and I am inclined to point the fingers at Dubai as the primary source/instigator of the butchery.
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On the bright side, it’s a slight improvement to have one’s despot elected, rather than installed or appointed.
Baby steps
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Oh Dan, you seem to have missed the point and instead engaged in a tirade on something I wasn’t even commenting on. How silly and how lacking in humor.
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#45 Ralph… “How silly and how lacking in humo(u)r”
Maybe you could run the joke by me again…. Or, in fact, do your own version of ‘Let it Be’, put it on youtube, and I will see if I can rustle up a rictus, Peua, Thai phony and paid for grin and a fawning Nattawat guffaw….. Just like the Thonglor Phrai rustles up for the boss……
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“Dan”:
“Look at the French Revolution… It didn’t turn up liberty, it turned up a brand new despot named Napoleon Bonaparte and it took 15 years and untold misery before he was finally winkled out (for the second time) by Wellington and Blucher at the Battle of Waterloo (or Mon Saint Jean to the French) in 1815 and exiled to St Helena which was a lot further away than Elba…. ”
This is one rather linear way of thinking. The French revolution was a historical process that happened because it had to happen. Attaching labels such as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ just doesn’t do justice to complex historical processes.
Yes, Napoleon may have been a despot. But only through Napoleon the tiny German princely states turned into larger entities out of which Germany as a Nation developed.
Without the French revolution and Napolean, many countries in Europe may have taken much longer to shake off the shackles of Feudalism.
Thaksin appeared, because the time was right for someone like Thaksin to appear. The past 6 years of sociopolitical conflict in Thailand took place because Thailand’s development led to it. Like it or not – this is just the way how history works. And what implications for the future this will have – we will see.
One thing though is that people that have achieved historical greatness – and Thaksin for Thai history definitely can be described as such – are rarely people that can be easily described with simple terms such as ‘despot’, ‘criminal’, etc.
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Dan
Maybe Thaksin has a Napoleon complex but there is a difference. Napoleon gained power through the coup of 18 Brumaire which was justified because of the inefficiencies and corruption of the politicians. Sound familiar? Thaksin on the other hand lost power through a coup. Like the generals of September 19 2006, Napoleon abrogated the constitution as well.
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Nostitz, more than any other foreign journalists, succeeded to get himself imbedded among the Red Shirts. I am therefore interested to learn Nostitz’ personal take on many Red matters, but these first three will do.
a) Will Thaksin’s return unify the Red Shirt movement more, or, trigger a breaking apart of its many factions? (I am indirectly suggesting that ‘Thaksin staying away’ could actually be the glue that keeps those Esan shirts Red.)
b) Whatever happened to the more extremists/radical faction of the Red Shirts movement? And just who are these people (Nostitz’s opinion as to their profile)
c) Could Thaksin really competently sing ‘My Way’ or was he karaoke-terrible?
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“Vichai N”:
With your first premise you already built a strawman as i am not “embedded” in the Red Shirts, but go to all sides. On Saturday, for example, i went to the protests of the “Group Demanding Return of Power from Politicians Ungrateful to the Land”, a new name for some activists under Siam Samakkhi, whose members were formerly PAD supporters.
To answer your three leading questions:
a) Are you so sure already that Thaksin will return soon? Don’t you think that before asking this question you should wait for more developments to take place?
b) Radical in which way? In the European context most of what may be called here “radical” is in Europe still within the mainstream. In the Thai context they may be seen as “radical”. And yes, these thoughts and ideologies are still around everywhere, increasingly so. Go to any village, any Red Shirt neighborhood, and you will encounter these thoughts. How should i profile a cross section of Thai society? Impossible.
c) Karaoke terrible. But that hasn’t yet stopped anyone, which you can see and hear in any karaoke lounge all across Asia. People enjoyed it, he obviously enjoyed himself, so what’s the harm?
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Hi Nick
Seeing virtue in Napoleon Bonaparte and the Napoleonic wars is in of the oddest things I ever heard for quite some time. … And given what the existence of the amalgamated German states became I hardly think one can see its birth as being a positive legacy of Napoleon’s rule….
Also saying one cannot label any historical or political figure as bad is just ludicrous….. I am going to run this by you….. Stalin was ‘bad’ and so was Vlad the Impaler….. Now you really wouldn’t take issue with that would you?……
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“Dan”:
Again – labeling complex historical processes primarily with simplistic and moralistic terms of “good” and “bad” will not lead to either an intelligent nor a satisfying discussion.
As to what Germany became – what do you mean with that? Do i detect a slight longing for days of the empire on which the sun never sets?
I personally am quite glad that i was born in modern Germany in which i will not need to go to war with another princely German state a few kilometers away. So yes, i am reasonably satisfied with what Germany became, in the end.
Good, you circumvented the “Hitler” knock out… barely. But of course, you had to introduce “Stalin” and even “Vlad the impaler”
Is Thaksin that “bad”? Thaksin the impaler?
Why not Genghis Khan? Nero? Caligula?
What about Charlemagne? He is seen as a unifying force in Europe that pushed Europe from the dark ages after the fall of the Roman Empire on its way to recuperation – yet his wars in Saxony, marked by scorched earth and forced conversions or extermination of entire peoples show a different picture as well. Was he “good”, was he “bad”?
And back to the Thaksin issue – what is your alternative? That people just stop campaigning, and put their trust into the same old system that they were so disappointed in that they voted for Thaksin in the first place, warts and all? Or to get entirely rid of Democracy, as some extremists demand?
Or blindly support the Democrat party because Abhisit is Oxford educated, regardless the fact that this derelict party’s line of opposition is primarily defined by its nemesis Thaksin?
Shall Thais just follow the elder statesman such as Prem whose view seems to be to just trust Phra Siam Thevathirat? Or continue to listen to the serms of Bowornsak on good governance?
Why not let Thais decide over their own future, make their own mistakes, and this way develop themselves? Is Thaksin a danger to world peace so that the rest of the world feels a need to step in? Hardly.
Thaksin is just part of Thailand’s process of development – no more, no less. Again, as you are so unhappy about, and vehemently against this Red/Yellow conflict – what is your alternative? What shall Thais do?
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this thread i s more fun than the Sunday Comics, Go get em Nick, those of us who have been reading your articles for the last few years know the truth. Sic Em.
Seriously, all of these unnecessary personal attacks and criticisms totally remind me of statements constantly in the news and in Parliament by Democrat Party members. Nuff said
It’s just my opinion, but I am always right!
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From
“The French revolution was a historical process that happened because it had to happen. Attaching labels such as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ just doesn’t do justice to complex historical processes.”(c47)
to
“Also saying one cannot label any historical or political figure as bad is just ludicrous…..”(c51)
Wishful reading? At least something of a mis-reading, I suggest.
True, in many respects, parts of the German “Reich” periods (and all 12 years of the third version) didn’t work out well either for Germany or its neighbours – but the last 60-odd years present a very different picture. Appropriate here to recall Zhou Enlai’s response to Kissinger’s question about what he thought to be the impact of the French Revolution: “It’s too early to tell…..”
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Nostitz I said “embed” not “in bed”, and that was an observation and not assumption and you should take that as a compliment. If Nick keeps track of his many postings here at NM alone, he should realize that he is literally the ‘chronicler’ of Red Shirts movement. And being nearly ‘embedded’ does not mean exclusion of all others. Surely as a journalist Nick realized what ‘embedded’ or ‘near embedded’ reporting means.
(a) But of course I am sure as those Khmer voodoo chants are forebodings of ominous (or auspicious depending on one’s viewpoints) things in year 2012, that Thaksin will certainly return soon. (I thought Nostitz you were covering the Red Shirts Khmer rapture recently?)
(b) I meant radical in the meanest most deadly/dangerous way of course. Ala rampart anarchic bombings, widespread serial urban arson,
deadly assault rifle shootings intended to kill and maim rather than merely scare, and those common sorts of things we read in world news these days. I meant literally radical extreme towards terror Nostitz.
(c) But of course karaoke-terrible! That kind of karaoke-terrible artistry I suspect truly melts a Red heart to rapture.
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“Vichai N”:
The term “embedded” in context of journalism got famous through the second Iraq war, in which journalists were “embedded” with US military units, and had to sign contracts with certain obligations not to disclose certain facts.
I am under no such obligation other than keeping journalistic ethics, such as corroboration of facts and protection of sources.
Anyhow…,
a) well, as to magic – in my days in the Port Teck Tueng i have photographed many that were shot dead, but had all the proper protective tattoos.
I believe Thaksin’s decision to return will depend on other factors.
b) nops, you will get the answer to your question when i finish my book – no earlier.
c) it has been my experience that karaoke melts all hearts in Asia, be they Red, Yellow, Green or Blue
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I repeat my question: Whatever happened to the more extremists/radical faction of the Red Shirts movement? And just who are these people?
Nostitz promises me that the answer will be revealed in his forthcoming book. Cute and evasive. But Nostitz promise do suggest that those radical/extremist/terror elements among the Red Shirts movement are still lurking actively but silently (the ninja tag remember?) behind and probably among the many red Esan shirts dancing and frolicking during the Songkran.
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#56 Nick..
“And back to the Thaksin issue – what is your alternative? That people just stop campaigning, and put their trust into the same old system that they were so disappointed in that they voted for Thaksin in the first place, warts and all”
I think Thaksin is VERY much part of the old system… He has just spruced up the marketing. All factions understand how they increase leverage…. And of course winning repeated elections gives him immense leverage and I am sure that has been reflected in any rejigged deals he has with the other powerful factions and families who are all playing the same game.
“Why not let Thais decide over their own future, make their own mistakes, and this way develop themselves? ”
On this we are agreed and nor is there any alternative other than the ones you outline which are all even worse…. Thais are between a rock and hard place at the moment and many know it. They have the power to vote sometimes, but few or o half decent or honourable politicains to vote for….. I hear this all over the country except the heartland Red areas and even in those provinces many who arn’t Thaksin dazzled see the choice often as the better of two evils. They are weary of these corrupt pariahs…..
“Thaksin is just part of Thailand’s process of development – no more, no less. Again, as you are so unhappy about, and vehemently against this Red/Yellow conflict – what is your alternative? What shall Thais do?”
That is exactly my point….. Their choices are mainly rotten and essentially add up to a choice of gangsters, oligarchs and generals…. All of whom are pretty much in the same business?….. Thaksin or Sonthi?….. I can’t tell them apart…… The Surat mafia boss, Suthep or the Buriram mafia boss Newin?….. Peas in a pod.
“Do i detect a slight longing for days of the empire on which the sun never sets?”
Well as the Persians used to say, “the Sun never sets on the British Empire because no one trusts an Englishman in the Dark”…. I digress….. My point about Germany was about the development of the Nation state in Europe as a whole and indeed the scramble for empire and the global horror of World War 1…. A war without meaning.
“Is Thaksin that “bad”? Thaksin the impaler?
Why not Genghis Khan? Nero? Caligula?”
Indeed!…. Why not?….
“What about Charlemagne?”
My knowledge of the Dark Ages are exactly that….. Dark….. So I can’t answer that one.
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“Dan”:
Choices are not that dark in Thailand. You only look at parliamentary politics, and the choices given there. But i think you will have to go a bit further than that. Politics is not just done in parliament, but political changes occur often in communities and on street level long before they are reflected in parliament, especially in a country like Thailand in which parliamentary politics are bound in severe restrictions.
While you are mostly looking at individuals you are blinding yourself to the undeniable fact that Thailand has seen major political developments in the rise of political awareness in previously unpoliticized sectors of society. It is also undeniable that Thaksin was a catalyst for these changes – both on the Red side, and ironically enough – also on the yellow side. That so far may have been his biggest legacy – through the “divisive” figure of Thaksin a system began breaking up, and continues to transform itself. People began waking up that they are more than just subjects of a paternalistic system.
While you, and others may few Thaksin as just another political patron, you forget to look at the changing self-awareness of ordinary people in relation to the state. Of course this is not a sudden enlightenment, but an ongoing process of development that will take more time. But never before in Thailand so many sectors of society have begun questioning their own state and their position in the state.
Don’t be just so hung up on individuals – politics are not just made by leaders.
In the Thailand of 2012 people have far more choices than ever before. Never have there been extra-parliamentary venues to instill political change as there are been now – warts and all. We are now in a period of political awakening, and i think the discourse that is taking place on all levels of society is utterly fascinating.
It is inevitable that sooner or later parliament and extra-parliamentary establishments will have to incorporate the discourse that takes place in society. It has even taken place to some degree. When you look for example look at the 112 discussion, already that parliamentary politics has noticed that subject is a change in itself. In this case it doesn’t matter that parliament has decided not to amend article 112, already that parliament was forced to react and address this issue is already a sign for change, a sign that this particular discussion is already noticed. The next step, sometime in the future, will be that parliament will not just notice the subject, but will be forced to discuss the matter.
The Yellow Shirts have over the past years somewhat relegated themselves into an ideological desert, but within the Red Shirt movement many factions have bloomed, especially after the 2010 Rajaprasong crackdown, not just leftist educated minority groups but also increasingly grassroots organizations have now begun looking far beyond Thaksin in their demands. That may not be reflected in the English language newspapers. But if you visit these local organizations, the community radio stations, and observe their discourse – you will see this clearly.
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#59 Nick
“While you are mostly looking at individuals you are blinding yourself to the undeniable fact that Thailand has seen major political developments in the rise of political awareness in previously unpoliticized sectors of society. ”
I am not…. There is most certainly a huge rise in political awareness…. But that is actually a double edged sword and explisns the vitriolic brainwashing tactics of bothe yellow and the Red…. It’s about scaring and steering the beast…. That doesn’t negate the positive and now inevitable potential nature of change.
But that change IS about individuals…. And my experience from Songkhla to Mae Hong Son and even to Red heartland areas such as Phrae and Udon (although less so), is that there is a general cynicism and resignation about the possibilities for change, particularly with regards to corruption…. That coupled with the fact that some almost see corruption as a virtue, Thaksin being seen as ‘virtuously’ clever….. As they say in Khmer “Mien loi j’eut l’or. Ot mein loi j’eut ot l’or”…… Roughly translates as “If you have money you have a good heart. If you don’t have money you have a bad heart”…. It is a perversion of the notion of Karmic reward.
Also the people you are talking about sound like activists…. That is not most people.
“It is inevitable that sooner or later parliament and extra-parliamentary establishments will have to incorporate the discourse that takes place in society. ”
History tells us no such thing. Just look at the vested interests lined up against that happening?….. Whilst I am all for a bit of optimism, one cannot ignore the ruthless way in which powerful and wealthy people protect their wealth and power…. And that includes the political patron, Thaksin Shinawatra as well others of his ilk who are less successful at playing the manipulative, populist game…. A game at which he is the acknowledged master.
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While so many and especially the media look at Thaksin and what he embodies form both negative and positive perspectives, underneath this Thailand and it socio-poltical structures are being reformed. In many cases this is now being at least partially led (maybe a lot mor ethan partially in many cases) from the bottom or near it or grassroots.
Those that hoped for a managed change, and one managed by them are seeing their dream collapse and there is nothing they can do about it. In the short term this is only going to fuel nager and hatred towards Thaksin who they can still lash out and whose destiny they still feel they have some control over. However, whatever happens to Thaksin will actually have no effect on the changes that have occurred and are coming. While if succesful these managers of society wont have be humiliated by seeing Thaksin’s return celebrated, they will still become increasingly sidelined and irrelevant.
In fact an arguement could be made that the the return of Thaksin to the poltical fold would actually guarantee more power for these characters. In here for them lies the irony and their own tragedy.
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Nobody #61
In many cases this is now being at least partially led (maybe a lot more than partially in many cases) from the bottom or near it or grassroots.
So you think the UDD grassroots has already broken free from the chao pho’s that have allowed them to flourish in their specific geographical regions?
Personally, I don’t think that battle has been fought yet, though we are seeing a sign of skirmishes as the UDD leadership takes sides in the amnesty controversy.
I watch with great interest as the UDD and PTP elites slowly maneuver the UDD into an ineffective movement and show their true colors (no pun intended, of course).
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Neither major party has broken free of the Chao Pho’s. They both have their Nevins, Vatanas, Banharns, Sanohs, and Chalerms.
While it is correct to criticize PT for their dealing with scum, it seems bizarre to claim that the Democrats, the army, and the Amnart aren’t in fact equally guilty of the same crimes.
In fact, it was an explicit intention of the 1997 constitution to eliminate the political power of the Chao Pho’s, and one that did have some success.
To the degree that the Democrats, Army, and Amnart are backing the dinosaur 2007 constitution, they are more closely associated with the return of the dinosaurs to political relevance.
However, at the end of the day, the current Thai political system makes it impossible to rule the country without partnering with a set of provincial thugs.
The objective should be to point to specific political reforms that can eliminate the power of the Chao Phos (as the 1997 constitution attempted to do), not to blame one party of the other for suffering from what is basically a parasitic infection.
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I wonder who is looking at local politics in any detail. It seems to me that some of the greatest changes have been at that level, with far more elections than ever before. In some areas the rich and powerful remain entrenched, but there seem to have been changes and in many areas, the average locals have been more assertive.
Andrew Walker and Somchai Phatharathananuntha had some broad comments in their Journal of Contemporary Asia articles a few years ago, and Pasuk and Baker had a couple of chapters in their edited book a couple of years ago. It may be that I am simply blanking on this, but is there anyone else who has published on the cut-and-thrust of the local elections of recent years?
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Leah Hoyt #63
Neither major party has broken free of the Chao Pho’s. They both have their Nevins, Vatanas, Banharns, Sanohs, and Chalerms
Couldn’t agree more. But the comment was not about political parties, it was about the statement:
“socio-poltical structures are being reformed. In many cases this is now being at least partially led (maybe a lot mor ethan partially in many cases) from the bottom or near it or grassroots. “
I see little socio-political change at the grassroots level. I just see different strategies to accomplish the same thing, while a very effective PR campaign is being done to take the focus off the chao phos.
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The Bangkok governor elections to be decided March 3 2013 could be a game changer for Thaksin. If the PT Party candidate Police Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen wins (every poll seems to indicate that he’s way ahead of the incumbent Sukhumbhand, a Democrat), that could signal that all is well, Thaksin is forgiven, Thaksin could return.
That (a Pongsapat win) means Bangkok has forgiven Thaksin for his sins: the extrajudicial killings, the election cheating, the corruption scandals, his criminal convictions and the Bangkok riots: killings, bombings and burnings committed in year 2010 by the Reds on behalf of Thaksin.
But if Gen. Ponsapat loses . . . ?
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Today Thaksin is back at Forbes Thai billionaires list with $1,700,000,000. Wow. I bet he recouped (oops is this the correct word) all his ‘seized’ losses and more soon after his clone Yingluck became Thai PM. African gold mines could not have given Thaksin such quick huge windfall
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My barber sagely lectured, as he snipped at my going balding scalp, that the Bangkok governor elections is more of a game changer to Abhisit than Thaksin. If the Democrats lose today’s Bangkok governor elections, Abhisit would have to ungracefully remove himself from party and/or further political affairs … to take responsibility and that sort of b.s. But Thaksin or Yingluck, under Peau Thai Party unwritten rules (the Shinawatra are ‘Gods’ at the party if you get my drift), don’t have to take responsibility for any party debacle, much less a loss in Bangkok’s gubernatorial elections.
By my abacus, if the Democrats win at least 850,000 votes then Bangkok continues to belong to them.
To win, Yingluck/Pongsapat needs a swing of about 200,000 votes in their favor. That’s a lot of swing … But who knows? Yingluck has been swinging her lovely hips nearly daily … while Pongsapat awkwardly attempts to boogie some votes their way.
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Charisma works best, if the person to whom such charisma is attached is distant, because on closer looks it might just fade away. Charisma is as well less of a real personal characteristic then a projection by others. In other words, charismatic persons, as we have at least two in Thailand, are mainly simulacra. Based on this view, it would be best to maintain charisma and stay distant. However, for politics to become more realistic, it would be better to return.
The question which I find most interesting is, why Thaksin has become the most charismatic living Thai?
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Bizarre! That sums up the results of the recent Bangkok gubernatorial elections. Everyone got it wrong. All the pollsters (pre-election and exit) got it wrong with all predictions towards a landslide win by the Yingluck-Pongsapat PT team. BangkokPundit got it wrong … and this guy follows and reads only Thai polls these days. Even the eventual winner reelected Bangkok governor Sukhumband got it wrong: at a televised interview just after the election closed he was just about to choke and in not so many words was almost apologizing/expecting a loss (believing the exit polls no doubt) saying he’ll probably just return to a lowly position in the Democrat Party.
Well Vichai N got it wrong too. Yingluck’s swinging hips and Pongsapat’s boogie (and probably Thaksin’s voodoo too) actually succeeded to garner a whooping 1.1 million votes for Pongsapat and he was able to beat Samak Sundaravej’s record by 60,000 thousand votes! But that was NOT enough because somehow the Democrats were able to get 170,000 more votes to a new record 1.27 million votes secured by Governor Sukhumband.
Don’t ask me what happened because I don’t. Maybe the ‘silent’ Bangkokians finally got wise and heeded Chuan’s last-minute warning; or maybe many of those ‘silents’ were shaken to terror when they saw Jatuporn/Nattawut/Thida (the Red Terror leaders) brazenly riding on PM Yingluck/Pongsapat motorcade as if the year 2010 bombings/killings/burnings did not matter.
Or maybe . . . .
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Sukhumband won the recent election certainly not because of his past work performance (even the Democrat party’s secretary general Chalermchai opposed his nomination and decided not to attend any election campaign). Sukhumband won just because his party successfully used the “smear” tactic against Pongsapat by linking him with Thaksin and red shirts’ burning of the city in May 2010. But only yesterday, the court issued a ruling that Central World’s fire at 6 pm on 19 May 2010 was not caused by the red shirts, who already left the area earlier.
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Your comment that the court ruled the fire was not caused by the red shirts in regard to the Central claim made on its insurance company is not correct.
The court ruled the fire was not the result of “terrorism”, but rather “rioting by the red shirts”.
I don’t think that lets them off the hook at all.
This ruling was more about a “definition” for making a determination on a legal commercial matter – not a much broader matter.
It may be eventually the “real culprits” are found and the Red Shirts are to be found not guilty of this crime. But, bending the truth like you have done is not in anybody’s interest.
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I should add it is the ruling I mention above I am referring to. If there is another ruling please tell.
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Yes NT that was bizarre wasn’t it, the Thai court ruling that ‘the riots’ during the Reds rampage was not the primary cause of the Central World’s fire. If it was not the riots, if it was not arson, then perhaps some people who were not wearing Red shirts were just cooking and accidentally caused the fire?
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Vichai N: Despite your claim, Jatuporn/Nathawut/Thida never rode in the same motorcade with Yingluck/Pongsapat during any election campaign. Nathawut did appear in the stage to help Pongsapat’s campaign.
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There is NO way to resolve the divide, except to give the heavily pro-Thaksin regions greater autonomy, under a federal – or even confederal – system. But scant hope of that, given all the broken promises, over decades, for real de-centralisation – and the fact that former PM Anand’s proposal for mild and moderate de-centralisation, has disappeared almost without trace.
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