Today on ForeignPolicy.com, I published an article discussing the cracks in Vietnam’s socialist-market economy. The main problem, I and others have argued, is the rotten politics and in-fighting within the Communist Party (kudos to Carl Thayer), which has helped foster the bad economics.
Top party leaders, along with rising provincial and local figures, have become too comfortable with the largesse gained from three decades of market liberalization. They seem to be increasingly in a deadlock over the pace of “reforms” that could take from their spoils (although the word “reform” doesn’t quite capture the breadth of what’s going on). Once a promising emerging market, Vietnam seems to be a hitting a plateau as each economic solution only brings about more problems. The regional slump is only partially to blame.
Which leads me to the deeper questions: To what extent does the central party hold real power anymore, compared to all the rising provincial and local elites thanks to decentralization? And could an attempt to rein in the new players explain the very public humiliations of Vinalines, Vinashin, Dang Thi Hoan Yen, and the prime minister, all over the past few years?
In his book Vietnam: Rethinking the State, Martin Gainsborough offers a revealing explanation when looking at the increase in large corruption cases since the late 1990s . He argues that the central party-state is trying to reassert control over the periphery, undertaking “thrusts of recentralization.”
To the Hanoi-ologists out there, this might be old news. But what about Vietnam’s parallels to other Southeast Asian nations — Malaysia and its economy, perhaps?
If you are wanting parallels with SE Asian nations I thought you would start with Laos and Cambodia. After all, Laos has almost the same political structure, and Cambodia some kind of hybrid.
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Firstly, in Vietnam no culture of impunity exists like in Thailand – mess up and you can expect some comeback. Secondly, contrary to popular perceptions, checks and balances do exist in the Vietnamese setup, however under Nguyen Tan Dung there were serious regressions and the country is now paying the price. Vinalines and Vinashin lost a shipload of money – no surprise that was going to play out in public. Dang Thi Hoang Yen was voted out of the NA with something like a 96% majority so there was obviously some pent-up relish there. She wasn’t the first, by the way.
With regard to ‘rising provincial and local elites’, I wonder if the author would enjoy speculating on the situation in Danang. Foreigners can’t seem to decide if the regime there is a case of: a) a freewheeling business-friendly laiser faire red carpet, or b) autocratic and corrupt to the eyeballs – I think they used to wonder the same about Nguyen Tan Dung.
Vietnam needs some realignment after Nguyen Tan Dung rode a coach and horses over the checks and balances that existed. Tien Lang, and the (national) media’s freedom to report the cock-ups by local officials in Haiphong show that process is under way.
Grant Evans: Surely the comparisons with Cambodia don’t run too long?
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It seemed odd to me that Geoffrey Cain, in his desire to make comparisons between Vietnam and other SE Asian states , would first think of Malaysia, rather than Laos and Cambodia. Because of their similarities, the differences between these two countries and Vietnam can be very instructive.
That does not, of course, rule out comparisons with other countries, like Malaysia. It depends entirely on the aim of the comparison.
As for Cambodia, the continuity between the Vietnamese installed state of Heng Samrin, and that inherited by Hun Sen, is an important reason for the dominance of Hun Sen’s party today. Of course, there are discontinuities, but they pale beside the continuities. That why this hybrid is relevant for comparison with Vietnam.
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It’s definitely true that Vietnam has a lot of political parallels with Laos.
To clarify, I was pondering more the political role of Vietnam’s state sector, which seems to have some points in common with Malaysia’s. New Mandala attracts plenty of insightful Malaysia commentators who can offer input. And of course, I leave my parallel open to the caveat that I’m not as familiar with Malaysia, and could be wrong.
Of course, Cambodian tycoons typically aren’t far removed from current regime circles. Just look at Sok Kong and Teng Bunma. Nevertheless, state direction of the economy over there isn’t nearly as overt.
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With regards to Malaysia, it depends on the area for comparison, as Malaysia and Vietnam are significantly different.
If it is corruption, Malaysia is not improving, although it is far better than Vietnam.
In terms of centralisation of power, two parallel issues are at play. The vacumm created by Mahathir, reform measures under Badawi, and the oppositions path-breaking results at the 2008 general elections, have given rise to new centres of power.
Over the past 55 years, too much centralisation has led to power being concentrated in to the hands of (1) the Executive, (2) the Barisan Nasional, (3) UMNO, and now (4) the Prime Minister. This has seen the excess only worsen, not reduced. Therefore in Malaysia, the way to go would be decentralisation towards the norms of what would be as it was intended – a federation.
However, as in the case of Vietnam, the weak ruling party “a kind of decentralisation” has given warlords within the ruling coalition, and externally (religious fundamentalists) disproportionate power. Najib has sought to address this by concentrating power within himself.
I believe what Vietnam is facing is similar to what China is facing (Beijing not being able to exert control over the provinces, which had been part and parcel of Chinese history), and also Indonesia, and maybe Thailand. But Not Malaysia though.
Vietnam could definitely learn from China, but also alternative modes such as in India, US and Australia – on how power sharing can actually work.
The latter may not be pretty, but definitely worth a try. Its shown to be resilient with can actually deliver on prosperity for a good number of its citizens.
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