President Thein Sein reshuffled his cabinet on 27 August 2012, for the first time since the installation of his government on 30 March 2011. Speculation about an imminent cabinet reshuffle had been heard for some months; the fact that it took so long to accomplish might indicate some lingering vulnerability in Thein Sein’s position, although on the surface the outcome has strengthened his personal authority, reinforced the government’s reformist impulses, and sidelined the last conservative elements among his ministers.
Thein Sein has brought key ministers overseeing his reform initiatives into his own office, as ministers without portfolio: notably Investment Commission Chair, Soe Thein, who has become the leading advocate of micro-economic policy reform; former Railways Minister, Aung Min, who has assumed responsibility for negotiating peace agreements with several ethnic groups (including the Karen National Union); and the ministers formerly in charge of Finance and National Development.
Thein Sein’s new Cabinet also underlines the increasing important of economic reforms – as Western sanctions are lifted, international assistance increases, and foreign direct investment grows. Reflecting this, an experienced economist, Dr Kan Zaw, formerly Rector of the Institute of Economics, was promoted from Deputy Minister to Minister for National Planning and Economic Development. He will be backed up by two experienced new deputy ministers: Thein Sein’s own former senior economic advisor, the development economist Dr Set Aung; and Professor Daw Khin San Yi, who had been acting Rector of the University of Economics. .
Importantly, Thein Sein has demoted long-serving Information Minister, Kyaw Hsan, to the ministry of cooperatives, after Kyaw Hsan – a hardline conservative retired general – had recently mishandled the creation of a Press Council. Two other former generals were “allowed to retire”. These changes come on the heels of the retirement in July 2012 of conservative Vice President Tin Aung Myint-Oo. While they leave Thein Sein with strong support for his reform agenda within the cabinet, he will still need to take careful account of the views of the army leadership on major policy directions.
The new Information Minister is former Labour Minister, Aung Kyi, a former general who was Minister for Liaison with Aung San Suu Kyi during 2010, and who is expected to endorse reforms. The Defence Minister was replaced, in what looks like a rotational arrangement. Significantly, the two other key security ministries reserved for military appointees, Home Affairs and Border Affairs, which are currently dealing with grave issues of sectarian violence, have not been changed.
The first woman cabinet minister in Myanmar history has been appointed. Dr Myat Myat Ohn Khin was promoted from Deputy Minister of Health to be Social Welfare Minister. Four women are among the new deputy ministers. Overall, many of the appointees have been moved around or promoted, with relatively few completely new faces. A small number of civilians was appointed
These cabinet changes – now also approved by the parliament – are the first real opportunity for Thein Sein to put his own stamp on the character of the government. At the very least, the should mean “more of the same” for Myanmar; but signs point strongly to an even greater thrust for reform, with little or no looking back.
Trevor Wilson is a former Australian Ambassador to Myanmar and a Visiting Fellow in the College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University
Thanks for the interesting update Trevor. I would be interested in hearing how many (if any) cronies of the former Than Shwe govt are still hanging around, or if they are being marginalised.
Thanks,
Paul
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paul,
there’s an interesting assessment of the likely fate of the cronies in the most recent ICG report on myanmar: “the politics of economic reform.”
regards,
a red ant in yangon
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paul,
there is interesting analysis about the effect of the change of govt on cronies in the most recent ICG report: “myanmar: the politics of economic reform”.
there was jubilation in the media sector when aung kyi replaced “red ant” kyaw hsan as information minister.
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thanks ‘aggadassavin’, interesting paper. In short it says the following in answer to my question:
With support for opening up the economy building across the country, previously favoured businessmen and rich politicians appear to recognise that the political risks of challenging economic reform could outweigh the likely benefits. With limited options, the cronies are trying to distance themselves from their murky past and rebrand themselves as valuable contributors to the new economy. Along the way,they hope not to draw too much scrutiny about how they acquired their personal wealth and the capital that will now give them a head start.
It will be interesting to see what scrutiny (if any) comes and the current govts committment to breaking down these old networks.
Thanks, Paul
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The cronies or oligarchs aren’t stupid. They are hedging their bets already by making contributions to both ASSK/NLD and the 88 generation student leaders who are preparing to launch their own political party in readiness for 2015.
Their main threat however will come from the foreign investment law just put on hold by Thein Sein so protectionist clauses can be removed in order to attract FDI. They are set to face up to the reality of capitalist ‘free competition’ on a far from level playing field once their military patrons/partners decide to ditch them for ‘compelling reasons’. A schadenfreude moment perhaps.
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The question is how Myanmar could make the move from reform initiated by the President to one initiated by the average citizen. This reshuffle might not be a move towards it though. Only time will tell.
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In Myanmar or Burma or Birmanie or Birmania or Mian-Dian or Phama or … you just change names. You don’t change the actors, you change their roles. Names are like smoke, roles are like mirrors. A lot of smoke and mirrors in Naypyitaw (or Naypyidaw) the “abode of the rulers”. Burmese are very fond of the theatre of the marionettes!
Burma has always been ruled by an oligarchy since the days of the monarchy operating on the medieval principles of intrigues, coercion, nepotism, patronage and “appanage”,… Connections (guanxi in Chinese) are the key to the web of power. Suu Kyi (most Burmese don’t put their father’s name in front of your name, unless he is famous!) might be considered a “Burmese idol” or a “human rights icon” for many people in the West like Bono (the U2 guy), but in Burma (or Mianma, whatever) her fame and her power (“awza” in Burmese, she doesn’t have “ana” yet) comes from the fact that her father Aung San was a national(istic) hero worshiped by the majority of the populace. He died early so we would never know if Burma would be very different now if he wasn’t assassinated in 1947 (the year I was born in Rangoon or Yangone?).
What Burma needs is a French Revolution of sorts (you know the kind that says: Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité) before Suu Kyi gives another (in my opinion rather boring) lecture about democracy and “rule of law” (so what’s the citizenship law in Burma?)
Anyway, a brief subjective response to the two comments above:
1. The old cronies of Than Shwe are definitely still “hanging around” (definitely not hanged!}
2. The average citizen in Burma is very poor and is looking for a “saviour” or “messiah”. For some it’s Suu Kyi, for some it’s the 88 generation, for some it’s the Chinese, for some it’s the third force (Burma Egress or whatever they call themselves), for each of the “legally designated 165 ethnic groups” it might be 165 different “local(tribal?) war-lords(gods)?”. I don’t know.
Quo vadis Birmania?
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tocharian,
Unfortunately have to agree with every thing you wrote above.
“Naypyidaw” is a dangerous, patently undemocratic and stupid, stupid name- in literal and historical sense. The “Abode of Kings”. But weirdly it suits with the present day “stupid” mentality of a lot of people. Funny times. People BS to no end about “democracy” while at the same time hailing the “superman” or supreme dictator. Now Thein Sein as superman and Than Shwe as supreme dictator. And Aung San Suu Kyi as ever loyal chief cheerleader as well as mind-bender for the masses who are being killed and looted and yet have to “co-operate”. Sick!!!
Current situattion is very unstable mainly because it does not fit in with the natural, true character of Burmese populace (people in geographical boundry of country Burma).
That is what we are seeing more and more now. The “Peace March”, the “Candlelight Protests”, the “Lapadaung Taung Destruction Land Poisoning Demonstration”, grassroot movement against Thai owned and operated “Tavoy Port” complexes even thought Thaksin, greedy megalomaniac, and Than Shwe, greedy, feeble-minded megalomaniac, want it.
We see more and more of true “Joe Public” (as the Americans would say) coming out fighting for real need and desire of the public. We also see that these are not associated with the misguidedly commonly accepted “leaders” of the so-called “opposition” whom people are now seeing as no more than self-serving yesterday’s people- like Aung San Suu Kyi, 88′s, “Exiled Leaders” etc. ( Did you see the funeral cortege of “U Paing Lu” and “U Hnan Phew” both 88 years of age in Monywa?)
We are now seeing real grassroot movement which will snowball. These superficial accolades and back pattings are simple sideshows. People are now beginnig to realise that the “development plans” by say-IMF “rewarding the New Open Burma” as their New Head ( after Stauch) Christine Largarde award their chief collaborator are simple land grabbings for the international companies. More development more loot!!! As simple as that.
And this is still the very beginning of millions more like this to come. What with the biggest import to Burma now Bulldozers and the caterpiller man ( that is the man from Capterpiller Company of Illinois) cozying up to the absolute rulers while expensively dressed people busy themselves in Naypyidaw doing totally useless things wasting millions of public money.
It is inconceivable seasoned political observers like Trevor Wilson would not see through all these BS and recognises the real power lies elsewhere. But it is interesting that they -another remarkable one being Derek Tonkin- stick stricky to the party lines. What it means is that currently they feel Thein Sein is , with absolute support of his ever loyal sidekick Aung San Suu Kyi, on the winning streak.
If people on the street have their say a bit longer, the picture will change. If the people on the street cannot have their say the picture will change as well. Much vaulted 2015 election is a non-event.
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Ohn, my friend. I don’t follow any party line. By 2015, anything could happen. But with every day that passes, things in Myanmar look a little better, a little brighter. There can be no going back. The genie, as they say, is out of the bottle.
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Thanks Derek,
Better and brighter! For perhaps selective groups. Yes. There will be international banks and most likely Japanese Stock Exchange with many new- wide, paved roads, rails and hundreds of hectors of port-yards and SEZ’s. And electricity and 4G as it is THE thing to have.
In two years if things go on as it is, good old Rangoon will be just like any other monolithic consumers’ haven of supermarkets,McDonalds, KFC’s, etc with new 4mm 50 inch TV on sale at Christmas time.
Even if one accepts these are why people live for together with reruns of “Friends”, “American Idol” and “Survival Philippines”, these will be literally on the sweat and blood of significant chunk of populace.
Just like the currently hunted down Kachins for the unforgivable, terrible crime of BEING THERE.
In fact, the people in Lapadaung (this is too Burman now, just off Shwebo) today may not really feel so bright or bettter. Neither in Phakant, or Pathein where three people got shot yesterday by police, etc. Fact is these are just the entrée. Main course is yet to be ordered. And ordered it will be.
With the current every-thing-is-good-and-wonderful-in-this-country-now track record, even if Aung San Suu Kyi does become President and the whole mammoth concrete block “Parliament”, (people have yet to find out what is being done there for millions of dollars in debt) is filled with hundreds and hundreds of NLD’s, hope for people in the street is at best uncertain.
Do you really want to bet how many millions of peasants now working quietly and peacefully on their ancestral farm land fending off the “authorities” around the country will be on the street begging in two years’ time?
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They’ll be begging for jobs in the SEZs, Ohn. Better to be exploited than not, given Hobson’s choice. If the cronies think they have first refusal in the arena of industrial scale farming/fishing they’ve got another think coming.
The future is bright. The future is FDI…. kerrching! Why, the whole process has been about Western investment, never mind the people, the Kachin etc., they’ll serve a purpose in the bigger scheme of things.
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Taiwan and the Philippines combined is
smaller than Myanmar.
The former was under marshal Law until this
present democratic elected government,the
latter complexities/diversities comparable
to Myanmar was similarly ruled.
Myanmar present “Road to discipline
Democracy” scenarios pale in comparison to
historical documented atrocities
legendary corruption and cronyism during
both countries transformation to present so
called ‘more democratic’/'more western acceptable’ government.
Both enjoyed the unequivocal supports and blessings by the
West/USA.
Derek Tonkin is absolutely correct in supplanting Thein Sein’s
“–no U turn on road towards democracy”.
Those who complain about ongoing similarities to Taiwan and
Philippines must realize that there are bigger threats than the
Kachin question.
If this present reshuffled government can not get a grip on
situations in Western Myanmar it will make the now
historical ‘Moro question’ in the Philippines a back to the
future with a judgement day ending.
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Phillipines Plan B!
There are a few critical differences.
Moros are in fact original people in the South and the affair is more complex than pure religion or territory and the Islamic World is not that really interested.
The Rohingya is currently the most galvanizing affair where, as the rearest of occurances, the Human Rights groups around the world and the Muslim – main stream AND the radical groups of all persuations are united for the cause.
It must be remembered that no one is really interested to go and mediate to lessen the violece. But all give out profuse threat and promise more and more violence showing the end of intelligence of the humanity.
And it is still fresh. So one can never tell what might transpire in the next precious few months. The ingredients are there for some irresponsible act to ignite. The last burnings (Indian races of all persuations are fascinatd by fire!) and destruction of 250 year old Buddhist temple in Bangladesh was supposed to be ignited by a picture of (again!) burning Koran on the usual media of choice -Facebook.
Another difference is the event like Maguindanao massacre cannot happen in Burma at the moment as the battle lines are between the Bamar military of any dress and others. But the way all the armed groups been bought at (relatively cheap price- Khin Nyunt would be impressed) there will soon be fifedoms like in Maguindanao.
We already have drug warlords in the parliament. It is not so imginative to see the next round of “democratic election” to be conducted in bullets.
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“The Rohingya is currently the most galvanizing affair where, as the rearest of occurances, the Human Rights groups around the world and the Muslim – main stream AND the radical groups of all persuations are united for the cause.”
The completion of radicalization is a matter of time.
Which part of “judgement day ending” did you missed?
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