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	<title>New Mandala &#187; Coup</title>
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		<title>Jakrapob on the state within the state</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/25/jakrapob-on-the-state-within-the-state/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/25/jakrapob-on-the-state-within-the-state/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:20:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Walker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Privy Council]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal family]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[A New Mandala reader has provided the following translation of “State within the state” by Jakrapob Penkair, Thai Red News Weekly Magazine, Year 1, Volume 16, 21 September 2009. The source for the translation is here.  Translator notes are added in square brackets. ]
State within the state
This concept does not appear in progressive political science literature or research. It [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[A New Mandala reader has provided the following translation of “State within the state” by Jakrapob Penkair, <em>Thai Red News Weekly Magazine, </em>Year 1, Volume 16, 21 September 2009. The source for the translation is <a href="http://thaienews.blogspot.com/2009/09/blog-post_6816.html">here</a>.  Translator notes are added in square brackets. ]</p>
<p><strong>State within the state</strong></p>
<p>This concept does not appear in progressive political science literature or research. It was used earlier to refer to the situation in Thailand during the period of the Cold War.</p>
<p>In fact, those who look into the structure and characteristics of the Thai politics and administration will know what this really means. This is not new knowledge. It was since the formation of the Thai Rak Thai party, when Thaksin became the Prime Minister in 2001 that we had tangible evidence that the “State within the state” in Thailand really exists. The evidence also indicates that people no longer have ownership or equal rights in this country as portrayed by current propaganda.</p>
<p>“State within the state” means that there is one “government” on top of another government in Thailand or Thai state, according to international legal definition. One is elected by the majority of people while the other never goes through any election process.<span id="more-6702"></span></p>
<p>The real  [behind the scenes] “government” is composed of the following elements:</p>
<ol>
<li>Senior government civil and military officers nurtured under the patronage system of the previous authority. These officers take turns to be in power, sharing wealth and privilege. They sometimes compete and even fight among themselves. </li>
<li>Mechanism of absolute control by the state as among certain bodies and authorities such as Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), Special Branch of Royal Thai Police, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Royal Thai Army, Thai Airways, PTT, etc.</li>
<li>Income and revenue responsible groups including both the new rich and the old establishment rich as well as development of centrifugal networks to draw either old or new capital into the center.</li>
<li>Elements of academia, in particular those who know how to control the nation-state through the process of law – as among those academics with knowledge and skill to draft a constitution and other minor laws that have a hidden agenda or clauses that allow the status quo ante powers and elite privilege to continue.</li>
<li>Agreement with the superpower nations, in particular the USA in regards to protecting mutual benefits and to make sure areas of authority/interest doesn’t overlap.</li>
</ol>
<p>This kind of persisting interest “government” is therefore the real government of this kingdom because it has the absolute power to seek and maintain its power.</p>
<p>The elected government is only there for the sake of the country’s image. It’s like a mask that hides the real image hidden behind. The orders for the elected government will be made through telephone conversations or messengers, the same way as ordering a pizza delivery.</p>
<p>From the origination of PAD, formerly “we love the king” group, the judicial review, the adjudication to null the election on 2 April 2006, the car bomb to assassinate the PM of the elected government [Thaksin], the 2006 coup, the council for national security, the dissolution of TRT and PPP  and most of all the lèse majesté<strong> </strong>cases were the products of the real  “government” of Thailand. These are but a part of a much wider circuit of interests or products!</p>
<p>There is no possible way that the elected government will be able to fight against the real “government” that is resilient and works in clandestine ways. Besides, an elected government has real work to do and has to face various problems daily and has to bear all sorts of criticisms from all directions. </p>
<p>The apparatus of the real power or “government” in Thailand exists above electoral interests; bestowing enfranchisement or empowerment to voters through public referendum and a fair court system. From time to time this real “government” will come out to act like a guru to give a lesson to the elected government.</p>
<p>The missions of the real “government”, the “state within the state”, are quite clear. It will never allow a situation to occur where it will lose its power and benefits to democratic competition. Some other main duties of the hidden “government” are:</p>
<ol>
<li>Create a distorted image for the political system; making the electorate feel that they cannot rely on a democratic system in place, for example because of vote buying.</li>
<li>Make the democratic government incapable, worthless and deserving to be destroyed, and if it appears worthy and gaining authority, the accusations are immediately raised on corruption, “dictatorship” and lèse majesté which can be deployed immediately to annihilate any oppositional voices.</li>
<li>Make the bureaucrat system  [the <em>khaa-ratchakaan</em> system], the real operational system of the hidden “government”; higher in power than the population of the whole country and engender conditions to make people more ignorant and backward than the elite bureaucrats.</li>
<li>Constantly reinforce power by creating a competitive condition among the underlings and their operational staff; the ones who fail will be disposed of, while favorites are promoted without credibility or due responsibility to the feeling of others.</li>
<li>Constantly promote positive propaganda to build its self-image, as a standard of the morality and good virtue for Thai society; even if there are no productive outcomes, previous outcomes that were accepted will be repeated to familiarize the public so that they dare not challenge it.      </li>
<li>Severely punish those who dare to challenge the status quo in public; as in “slashing a chicken’s neck to keep the monkey away” [Thai proverb].</li>
<li>Never disclose oneself no matter how much pressure; the leader of the hidden “government” would instead act indirectly when necessary to allow underlings to use their imagination to interpret what is wanted and how; any subversive orders will be passed down through codes and “boys” to avoid traces to the source.</li>
<li>Promises to the US, Chinese and British governments that as long as the real “government” is able to maintain its power, mutual benefits of all the three countries will be assured; this principle may be referred to as “I Live, You Live; I die, You die”. Therefore it is clear that the full extraordinary Thai ambassadors to these three countries have been selected carefully and often given special tasks after their retirement too.</li>
</ol>
<p>Currently, Thai politics is dictated by the hidden government, the “state within the state”. The elected Abhisit Vejjajiva  is also trying to take good care of itself like the meat in a shell fish, and unable to undertake any productive activities. The elected government that people truly wanted has been suppressed and unable to make itself an alternative choice. If people can choose their own government the real behind-the-scenes “government” will experience the moral law of impermanence; it will no longer be able to exist in the Thai state anymore. We may place blame on many petty details that caused so much suffering for the pro-democracy faction; however, in reality, this is all dog’s shit. The real problem is the behind-the-scenes “government” that places self-interests first, that is regressive and outright wicked and cruel. It is clear that the heart of the Thai political problem is the “state within the state”.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Thailand’s military: perpetually political, forever factionalized, again ascendant</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/24/thailand%e2%80%99s-military-perpetually-political-forever-factionalized-again-ascendant/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/24/thailand%e2%80%99s-military-perpetually-political-forever-factionalized-again-ascendant/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 01:58:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Paul Chambers, Guest Contributor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Privy Council]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal family]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Somchai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[Dr. Paul Chambers is currently the Senior Research Fellow at the Politics Institute, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.  His research interests are civil-military relations, democratization, and Southeast Asian politics. His articles have appeared in the Journal of East Asian Studies, Contemporary Southeast Asia, and the Asian Journal of Political Science, among others.]
The Thai armed forces have [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[Dr. Paul Chambers is currently the Senior Research Fellow at the Politics Institute, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.  His research interests are civil-military relations, democratization, and Southeast Asian politics. His articles have appeared in the Journal of East Asian Studies, Contemporary Southeast Asia, and the Asian Journal of Political Science, among others.]</p>
<p>The Thai armed forces have been major players in Thai politics since the 1932 coup which terminated absolute monarchy.  During the 1990s, some suggested that Thai soldiers were increasingly being by-passed by new societal forces, making the armed forces less relevant political players. [1] Others pointed to the disgrace suffered by the military following the 1992 Black May massacre as a watershed event finally compelling the armed forces back to the barracks. [2] This study agrees with McCargo and Ukrist (2005) that during the 1990s, the Thai military was never depoliticized.  Instead, it was “willing to pretend to accept limits and controls, on condition that it remain unreformed….” [3]  Yet there has also been a contention that a “re-politicization” of the Thai military did occur with the election of the Thaksin Shinawatra government in 2001 since Thaksin brought with him to office a large team of persons with senior military backgrounds. [4] Thereupon, he appointed relatives, cronies, and pre-cadet academy classmates to high positions of military power.  But by placing responsibility for such re-politicization at the door of Thaksin, one can indirectly fault him for the 2006 coup—in which the armed forces once again took direct political power into their hands.  Following this reasoning, Thaksin himself is ultimately to blame for the heightened role of the armed forces in contemporary Thai politics.</p>
<p>There is an alternative way to analyze the political role of the Thai armed forces: examining the competition for power and prestige among military cliques even after the retirement of faction leaders.  The mandatory age of retirement at age 60 (with some exceptions) has often been viewed as the end of influence for a senior Thai military official given that his/her seniority as an active duty soldier terminates with retirement.  And yet in Thailand we have witnessed retired armed forces personnel forming political parties, serving in cabinets (including Minister of Defense), and taking seats in Parliament.  While in the military, these soldiers have often established close-knit clusters of personalist and class-based comradeship.  Meanwhile, shared service experiences, where an older infantryman commanded a younger one, produces cohesive patron-client linkages.  Such connections tend to survive beyond retirement age.  Factional competition thus links among active duty soldiers with retired officers. <span id="more-6692"></span></p>
<p>Examples of retired soldiers who have managed to exert enormous influence on the military corps beyond the age of retirement have included Gen.Praman Adireksan, Gen.Kriangsak Chamanand, Gen.Arthit Kamlang-ek, Gen.Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, and Gen.Prem Tinsulanond.  Gen.Prem is a special case—he has long been recognized as being intimate with the palace.  Not since the dictatorship of Gen.Sarit Thanarat (1958-63) has such a close relationship existed between a military personage and Thai royalty.  Prem’s pull on Thai politics began in 1979 when he was elevated to the concurrent positions of Defense Minister and Army Commander.  He ascended to the premiership in 1980 but was required to retire as a soldier in 1981.  Retirement would have considerably diminished Prem’s clout among active duty officers but it did not.  This is because, when he served as PM (1980-88), “royal support…elevated Prem above the factional struggles and power games in the military.” [5] After stepping down as PM, Prem was appointed to be a Privy Councillor and acting Council President, given that Chief Privy Councillor Sanya Dharmasakdi was, in his last few years, in extremely poor health. [6]  In 1991, the military successfully carried out a coup against PM Chatchai Chunhavan.  Prem did not negatively react to the takeover, possibly because PM Chatchai had initiated a policy of sharply reducing the power of the military in national politics. [7]</p>
<p>Fallout from Black May 1992 represented a massive discrediting of the armed forces in Thai society. Only two military personages and their entourages of supporters remained powerful.  These were Gen.Prem Tinsulanond and Gen.Chavalit Yongchaiyud, both retired.  Yet Chavalit had once served under Prem and was seen on many issues to be loyal to him.  Moreover, Prem could trump Chavalit because Chavalit had called for a “presidium” form of government in the late 1980s, words which to many (apparently the palace included) smacked of communism. [8] Thus, the 1992 political vacuum of active-duty or retired military leaders allowed retired Gen.Prem Tinsulanond to fill the void.    </p>
<p>Prem continued serving as the King’s de facto Chief advisor until 1998, when he was appointed as Privy Council Chair.  This final appointment cemented his penultimate ascendancy (save for the palace) over the Thai armed forces.  In terms of factional struggles in the military, the early-mid 1990s reflected competition between promotions of soldiers closer to either Prem or Chavalit.</p>
<p>Some may have thought that Prem’s retirement and advancing age would obstruct his influence in the military.  Yet his immeasurable prowess as the king’s top advisor, as an ex-military man having influence with reshuffles and not bound by retirement restrictions, helped to elevate the Privy Council to become an institution to be reckoned with.  And Prem ensured that his clients were rewarded handsomely.</p>
<p>As for senior military reshuffles, Prem’s loyalists have been very successful.  His clique has included Gen. Wimol Wongwanich (Army Commander 1992-95), Mongkol Ampornpiset (Supreme Commander 1996-2000) and Surayud Chulanond (Army Commander 1998-2002, Supreme Commander 2002-03).  The election of Gen.Chavalit Yongchaiyud as PM in 1995 allowed Big <em>Jiew</em> more leeway in the choice of senior military staff. For example, in Chavalit’s capacity as both Minister of Defense and PM, he was able to elevate Gen.Chettha Thanajaro (a Chavalit loyalist to the post of Army Commander).  However, the 1997 financial crisis put a dent in Chavalit’s luster. By Fall 1997, his star had waned considerably and he was pressured to resign from office in November.  It seemed now that there was no military personality or group which could challenge the dominance of Prem over the armed forces.  But Prem seemed to face gargantuan challenges with the election of popular PM Thaksin Shinawatra.  Thaksin brought Chavalit back with him as Defense Minister and used Chavalit’s own military support base to carve out a source of his own authority in the armed forces. [9] Thaksin saw to it that Chavalit-confidante Gen.Somdhat Attanand was reshuffled as Army Commander (2002-3) and then Supreme Commander (2003-04). Thereupon, Thaksin managed to position his minions (who were either relatives or pre-cadet school class 10 schoolmates) in top positions of power.  Indeed, Thaksin’s cousin Chaisit served as Army Commander (2003-04) and Supreme Commander (2004-05).  It seemed as though Prem’s monopoly of influence over the armed forces had all but vanished. </p>
<p>2004 saw the promotion of Gen.Prawit Wongsawan as Army Commander.  Prawit had served in the 21<sup>st</sup>  battalion of the Royal Guards (the Queen’s Guard).  Though he was loyal to Prime Minister Thaksin, he had long been an arch-royalist and was loyal to Prem.  Prawit was from Pre-cadet Class 6 and Army Cadet School Class 17.  His successor as Army Commander—Gen.Sonthi Boonyaratklin—hailed from these same classes. In 2005, Prem saw to it that Sonthi, who had previously served under Prem-loyalist Surayud, was appointed to become Army Commander (despite the wishes of Thaksin). [10] The two army generals who spearheaded the 2006 coup under Sonthi were Gen.Saprang Kallayamitr of the Third Army and Gen.Anupong Paochinda of the all-important First Army headquartered in Bangkok. Sonthi could count on their backing because Saprang had long criticized Thaksin publicly. On the other hand, Anupong, though he had graduated with Thaksin from pre-cadet Class 10, had served, like Prawit, in the Queen’s Guard.  There have been rumors that the coup was endorsed by Gen.Prem. [11] Though it is difficult to ascertain the certainty of such reports, what is true is that in the post-coup environment, Prem has returned to the apex of control over the military.  Today, the pro-Prem Gen.Anupong Paochinda continues to serve as Army Commander while retired Gen.Prawit Wongsawat acts as Minister of Defense.  Their control over the military reflects the continuing dominance of former Queen’s Guard officers and, by implication, Prem.  Ultimately, the Thai armed forces have never been de-politicized.</p>
<p>As such, the three-decade period of 1979 to 2009 represents the gradual assertion of political control by the Prem military faction over the armed forces. This era encompasses Prem’s own retirement from the armed forces and ascension to the Privy Council.  Indeed, patronage from the palace has been a crucial factor which has enabled Prem to monopolize authority even after the age of retirement.  Though sub-factions within his network of military clientele abound, the group remains united only under Prem himself.  The failure of Thaksin Shinawatra to effectively challenge Prem has represented the end of a final threat to the Privy Council Chair.</p>
<p>Though the elections of December 2007 appeared to revitalize Thailand’s process of democratization, 2008 marked a grim watershed for democracy in Thailand.  The post-2006 coup military leadership was clearly unhappy with the electoral results—which brought a pro-Thaksin government back to office.  But they did not dare stage the conventional coup d’etat.  The coup and military government that followed it had been mostly unpopular both domestically and internationally.  At the same time, damaging events which occurred under the CNS regime (it failed to solve any political or economic problems) caused the armed forces to be seen in an increasingly negative light.  Thus, as Thitinan Ponsudhirak says, the 2006 coup was a “botched” coup. [12]  The military’s alternative to outright takeover in January 2008 was thus to take a back seat to those opposed to Samak Sundaravej and indirectly influence the dis-assembling of the People’s Power party administration.  This it did in on three occasions.   First, the armed forces put little effort into protecting Samak’s government (and later that of PM Somchai Wongsawat) from unruly crowds which took over Government House, attempted to capture Parliament, and hijacked two international airports.  In essence, the Army under Gen.Anupong Paochinda was refusing to protect Thailand’s chief of government—the Prime Minister, though the Army Commander also refused to launch a coup against the government. </p>
<p>Secondly, the military at least twice called on PM Somchai to resign. This happened once on October 16, when Gen.Anupong, at the head of a contingent of Thailand’s top brass, appeared on Thai television to call for PM Somchai Wongsawat’s resignation to take responsibility for bloodshed on October 7. [13] In late November Anupong again called on Somchai to either dissolve the Lower House or resign to avert the political storm, rather than face down the PAD demonstrators.  Though the Constitution Court managed to finish off the Somchai government, forcing the dissolution of Palang Prachachon, pro-Thaksin MPs clearly had the numbers to reconstitute a new ruling coalition.  Here the armed forces again entered the fray.   </p>
<p>Thirdly, in mid-December 2008, the military indirectly helped to usher in the anti-Thaksin coalition government of Democrat Abhisit Vechachiwa.  A troika of pro-Prem soldiers was apparently instrumental in this oblique intervention: Army Chief Anupong Paochinda, retired Gen. Prawit Wongsawat, and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Prayuth Chanucha.  These three “Queen’s Musketeers” had served together in the 21<sup>st</sup> Infantry Regiment of the Royal Guards—the Queen’s Guards.  In early December, on the heels of the court verdict, talks began between these soldiers and members of several political parties, including the Democrat, Chart Thai, Puea Paendin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, as well as several members of the new pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party to set up an anti-Thaksin ruling coalition.  The three soldiers also contacted apparent Thaksin loyalist and long-time politico Newin Chidchob—who proved to be less than loyal to his erstwhile patron. [14] </p>
<p>Newin’s support was crucial for a coalitional realignment to transpire.  Born in Buriram province, in northeastern Thailand, he could perhaps carve into Thaksin’s assumed Isaan constituency.   His father Chai served as Parliament President while Interim PM Chaovarat Chanvirakul, a key member of Newin’s faction, was caretaker Prime Minister. The two men could ensure that dissolution of parliament would never occur—and they did. [15]  Meanwhile, Newin could sway scores of former Palang Prachachon MPs to defect to the anti-Thaksin ruling coalition—something which the Buriram bigwig proved he could easily accomplish. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the importance of the military was not lost on Thai politicians.  Against the recent backdrop of the Army’s refusal to protect ex-PM Somchai, MPs were keenly aware of the armed forces’ resurgent relevance to coalition formation and longevity.  As such, “the troika of the 21<sup>st</sup>” was perceived as central to a new ruling coalition.  In this way, Thailand’s military became the indirect arbiter in the formation of a new civilian government.</p>
<p>The Democrats’ Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban was the key civilian go-between between his party and Thailand’s armed forces.  In an interview, he discussed how these conversations bore fruit for the formation of a Democrat-led coalition:</p>
<blockquote><p>I had good ties with senior figures in the Military and I particularly admired Gen.Prawit [Wongsawan].  He could be reliable and was respected by younger military officers.  So I got in touch with him. He said the military was ready to follow orders if they were lawful and legitimate…He wished me good luck.  [After meeting potential coalition partners], I told them that I had someone apart from me who could give them assurances. [16]</p></blockquote>
<p>The military triumvirate’s success in ousting Thaksin’s elected nominee government from office without resorting to a coup and then building an anti-Thaksin civilian government has clearly resurrected its clout vis-à-vis civilians.  However these events have triggered broad repercussions regarding Thailand’s entire process of democratization.  After all, since 1992, the country had followed a trajectory toward greater pluralism and political space.  Though it is true that Thaksin stifled parts of the rule of law, the 2006 coup put an end to democratization (except at the local level).  The election of December 2007 seemed to breathe new life into pluralism but democratic roots proved shallow.  2008 witnessed a military willing and able to involve itself in unconventional, indirect political intrusions—to the point of re-stacking the coalition.</p>
<p><strong>Post-Script</strong></p>
<p>Of late, the Abhisit government has quietly eased Patcharawat Wongsawan out of active office, pressuring him to take a leave of absence until retirement in August 2009.  In Patcharawat’s stead stands acting Police Chief Gen. Wichien Potposri, who appears to be more amenable to working under an anti-Thaksin government as well as perhaps pliable by the military.  However Wichien failed to impress the Police Commission in terms of being selected as the next national police chief—perhaps because he lacked seniority and experience.  Chairman of the Board PM Abhisit nominated Pol.Gen.Prateep Tanprasert, a favorite of the PAD and a few pro-PAD army elements.  But a majority of the 11-member body preferred Pol.Gen.Chumpol Manmai, seen as close to Patcharawat, Prawit, the Bhumjai Thai Party, and pro-Prawit military officers.   The meeting ended inconclusively, though Abhisit promised to renominate Prateep.  The struggle, however, could represent an attempt by the PAD and certain Democrats (including Abhisit) to wrest control of the chief’s position from the current military/police leadership in order to achieve greater control over a police force seen as being generally pro-Thaksin in orientation. [17]</p>
<p>As for Prawit, the government would most probably like to dismiss him from  the post of Defense Minister altogether.  This is possibly because of government fears of Prawit’s military influence, given the state’s decision to indirectly sack his brother Patcharawat.  At the same time, Prawit seems more loyal to Newin Chidchob’s Bhumjai Thai party than to the Democrats.</p>
<p>But Abhisit and Suthep must be careful.  The quartet of Prawit, Patcharawat, Anupong, and Prayuth has undergirded the Abhisit administration’s survival.  Still, should Prawit depart from the post of Defense Minister, the position may go to one of Prawit’s pre-cadet and cadet school classmates (perhaps either Gen. Sonthi or Gen.Boonsrang Niampradit) or possibly confirmed anti-Thaksinista Gen.Saprang Kallayamitr. If any of these men take the post, we will be witnessing the perpetuation of the 2006 coup group in positions of post-coup power and Thailand’s military game will continue to endure. [18] At the same time, if Saprang assumes the Defense posting, there could be possible conflict within Thailand’s military establishment.  Saprang is supported by Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD who have hurled criticisms upon Anupong over the last six months and continue to do so. </p>
<p>Anupong himself is working to secure a stable future for those closest to him.  On June 17, 2009, Anupong transferred/promoted 75 mid-level officers as a reward for their involvement in the 2006 coup.  One of these, Lt. Col.Pattanachai Jintakanont (former Commander of the strategically key 4<sup>th</sup> Cavalry Battalion in Bangkok) was promoted to colonel and appointed to be the Army Chief’s Aide.  His replacement was Lt. Col.Chinsorn Ruengsuk, an aide to Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. [19]    With regard to October 2009 military reshuffles, this includes Gen.Prayuth (AFAPS Class 12, Army Cadet School Class 23), who Anupong is keeping on as Army Chief of Staff, in line to be take Anupong’s own position in 2010. At the same time, Anupong will promote another Class 10 army chum, Gen.Teerawat Boonyapradap to become deputy Army Chief. [20] In Teerawat’s place, Anupong is set to appoint Gen. Piroon Phaeopolsong, deputy Army Chief of Staff, as assistant Army Chief.  Piroon graduated with Anupong in pre-cadet school Class 10.  Finally, Gen.Wit Thephasadin na Ayutthaya (Class 11) is to be promoted to be another assistant Army Chief. [21]  The promotions further clinch the ascendancy of Pre-Cadet Class 10 and 12 as well as Army Cadet School Classes 21 and 23 over Thailand’s Armed Forces.  At the same time, at least until 2010 the personal supremacy of Generals Anupong and Prayuth is assured.</p>
<p>In late August 2009, rumors of a military coup were again resonating.  It was said that the supposed takeover would be instigated by Generals Prawit, Anupong, Prayuth, as well as politician Newin Chidchob.  The gossip coincided with an August 17 attempt by red-shirts to petition Thailand’s king to pardon Thaksin Shinawatra during which potential violence might provide the necessary springboard for military intervention. [22]   The rumor has not come to pass but it underlines the continuing popular perception of an extreme lack of civilian control over Thailand’s military.  Such tittle-tattle is not idle chitchat in a country where the army has proved time and again that it can and will continue its role as political umpire where it—and the Privy Council—see fit. </p>
<p>The military triumvirate’s success in building a civilian government military succeeded in ousting Thaksin’s elected nominee government from office without resorting to a coup.  However it triggered broad repercussions regarding Thailand’s entire process of democratization.  Since 1992, the country had followed a trajectory toward greater pluralism and political space.  Though it is true that Thaksin stifled parts of the rule of law, the 2006 coup put an end to democratization (except at the local level).  The election of December 2007 seemed to breathe new life into pluralism but democratic roots proved shallow.  2008 witnessed a military willing and able to involve itself in unconventional, indirect political intrusions—to the point of re-stacking the coalition.</p>
<p><strong>NOTES</strong></p>
<p>1. Chai-anan Samudavanija, “The Military, Bureaucracy, and Globalization,” In Hewison, Kevin, editor, <em>Political Change in Thailand</em>, London: Routledge, pp.54-55.</p>
<p>2. Surachart Bamrungsuk, „Thailand: Military Professionalism at the Crossroads,“p.77.</p>
<p>3. McCargo, Duncan, Ukrist Pathmanand, <em>The Thaksinization of Thailand</em>.  Copenhagen: NIAS Press, 2005, p.129.</p>
<p>4. McCargo, Duncan, Ukrist Pathmanand, <em>The Thaksinization of Thailand</em>.  Copenhagen: NIAS Press, 2005, p.134.</p>
<p>5. Pasuk Pongpaichit and Chris Baker, <em>Thailand: Economy and Politics</em>, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000, p.346.</p>
<p>6.  Handley, Paul, „Princes, Politicians, Generals: The Evolution oft he Privy Council Under the Constitutional Monarchy.  Paper presented at the 10<sup>th</sup> International Conference on Thai Studies, Thammasat University, Thailand, 9-11 January 2008, p.15.</p>
<p>7. Handley, Paul, „Princes, Politicians, Generals: The Evolution oft he Privy Council Under the Constitutional Monarchy.  Paper presented at the 10<sup>th</sup> International Conference on Thai Studies, Thammasat University, Thailand, 9-11 January 2008, p.15.</p>
<p>8. Handley, Paul, <em>The King Never Smiles</em>, New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006, p.470.</p>
<p>9. See McCargo, Duncan, Ukrist Pathmanand, <em>The Thaksinization of Thailand</em>, Copenhagen, NIAS Press, 2004, p.137.</p>
<p>10. Kavi Chongkittavorn, “Where Will Sonthi Lead “Army of the Land?” <em>The Nation</em>, March 24, 2006, <a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/">http://www.nationmultimedia.com</a>.</p>
<p>11. Interview with Jakrapop Penkair, March 3, 2009.</p>
<p>12. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Paper Presented at the 10<sup>th</sup> International Conference on Thai Studies, Thammasat University, Thailand, 9- 11 January 2008.</p>
<p>13. Wassana Nanuam, „The Coup that Never Was“ <em>Bangkok Post</em>, October 31, 2008, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>14. Wassana Nanuam, “Government Hopefuls Rendezvous with Anupong, ‘the Manager,’”<em>Bangkok Post</em>, December 11, 2008, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>15. Chai’s occupying the post of Parliament President also gave him the power to call a Special Session of Parliament to officially select a new Prime Minister (which he did on December 15) following Abhisit’s apparent success in garnering enough votes to become Prime Minister.</p>
<p>16. How Suthep Installed a Democrat-led Government,“ The Nation, May 26, 2009, <a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/">http://www.nationmultimedia.com</a>.</p>
<p>17. Manop Thip-osod, “Scramble to be the Next Top Cop,” <em>Bangkok Post</em>, August 11, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>; Pradit Ruangdit, Manop Thip-osod, “Abhisit Loses Police Vote,” <em>Bangkok Post</em>, August 21, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>18. Wassana Nanuam, „Prawit Fears Meddling in Lists, Bangkok Post, August 6, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>19. Wassana Nanuam, “Anupong Rewards his Coup Allies,”<em>Bangkok Post</em>, June 19, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>20. Wassana Nanuam, „Prawit Urged to Prevent Meddling in Reshuffle,” <em>Bangkok Post</em>, August 7, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>21. Wassana Nanuam, “Source Says Prayuth to Stay as Chief-of-Staff,” <em>Bangkok Post</em>, August 18, 2009, <a href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/">http://www.bangkokpost.com</a>.</p>
<p>22. “Puea Thai Blows Whistle on Silent Coup Plot,” <em>The Nation</em>, August 17, <a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/">http://www.nationmultimedia.com</a>.</p>
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		<title>Three years on &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/19/three-years-on/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/09/19/three-years-on/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2009 13:46:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Walker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6661</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Taken earlier this month in Chiang Mai.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Taken earlier this month in Chiang Mai.</p>
<p><a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThaksinCM.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6662" title="ThaksinCM" src="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThaksinCM.jpg" alt="ThaksinCM" width="450" height="337" /></a></p>
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		<title>Scenarios for Thailand</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/08/18/scenarios-for-thailand-2/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/08/18/scenarios-for-thailand-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 06:21:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Farrelly</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6383</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some New Mandala readers may have missed the analysis of post-petition scenarios for Thailand by Reuters correspondent Martin Petty.  It is well worth a look.  Later today we will be posting an illustrated report on the Thaksin Shinawatra clemency petition by Bangkok-based photo-journalist Nick Nostitz.  It will also be worth digesting.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some <em>New Mandala </em>readers may have missed <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE57G1T420090817?sp=true" target="_blank">the analysis</a> of post-petition scenarios for Thailand by Reuters correspondent Martin Petty.  It is well worth a look.  Later today we will be posting an illustrated report on the Thaksin Shinawatra clemency petition by Bangkok-based photo-journalist Nick Nostitz.  It will also be worth digesting.</p>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Suthep denies</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/08/17/suthep-denies/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/08/17/suthep-denies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 08:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Farrelly</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6346</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the renewed Red Shirt protests on the streets of Bangkok, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban has denied that a coup is on the cards.  If somebody had the time and patience it might be instructive to do a really deep trawl of the archives to see if coup &#8220;denials&#8221; have any relationship to the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-08/17/content_11896682.htm" target="_blank">renewed</a> Red Shirt protests on the streets of Bangkok, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban has <a href="http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=11348" target="_blank">denied</a> that a coup is on the cards.  If somebody had the time and patience it might be instructive to do a really deep trawl of the archives to see if coup &#8220;denials&#8221; have any relationship to the timing of Thailand&#8217;s previous coups.  Does anyone have a sense (even a gut feeling) of whether coup denials are a good indication of an impending coup?  Or is the relationship quite the opposite?  I would be interested to hear your ideas.</p>
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		<title>Nick Nostitz at the FCCT</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/16/nick-nostitz-at-the-fcct/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/16/nick-nostitz-at-the-fcct/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:13:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nick Nostitz, Guest Contributor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6048</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[This is the text of the talk given by Nick Nostitz last night at the launch of Red vs. Yellow held at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand.]
Making a book is the most exciting and at the same time terrifying experience – you live for your subject matter for a very long time, and it [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[<em>This is the text of the talk given by Nick Nostitz last night at the launch of <a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/09/red-versus-yellow/" target="_blank">Red vs. Yellow</a> held at the <a href="http://fccthai.com/items/57.html" target="_blank">Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand</a></em>.]</p>
<p>Making a book is the most exciting and at the same time terrifying experience – you live for your subject matter for a very long time, and it becomes very personal. It is terrifying to go public with what you passionately believe in, but others may not share.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the exciting part is that making such a book is what I see as the best expression of my profession as a photographer and journalist, and a great tool of communication.</p>
<p>I will try to talk here about the story behind the book. How this whole thing started, what motivated me, and how I got involved in Thai politics.</p>
<p>For years after my book on Bangkok’s nightlife scene, I have concentrated, in my personal work, on social problems in urban and rural Thailand, inspired by what I encountered then but had not covered in that project. This has led me to politics, when they began to turn visible enough to be captured by a camera in the end of 2005.</p>
<p>Like many other journalists I followed the pre-coup PAD protests. But I also got interested in the other side. One of my key experiences was when I visited the caravan of the poor in their last campsite before Bangkok in Navanakorn, an industrial suburb – those were the Thaksin supporters who came on these small <em>lot I-den</em> to Bangkok. I expected some simple paid for protesters, but I when I chatted with these mostly poor farmers, I found they were far more diverse in their views than I previously thought, when they talked about Thaksin.</p>
<p>They have all said that they knew that Thaksin was in many ways a faulty character, but explained how his policies have improved their lives. I have to admit that they have out discussed me. That made me think a lot. Especially that when I report about Thailand’s politics, it is not really important what opinions I hold, but the opinions of the people I report about, which they base on their experience of life, and that I will have to try to put myself in their shoes if I report on them.<span id="more-6048"></span></p>
<p>After the military coup, when only very small protests happened, most ignored the situation. But I was convinced, because of the emotions expressed by those villagers, that the coup was just the beginning of major social and political shifts in Thailand, regardless of the initially small numbers of protesters. People just had to recover from the shock of having lost their prime minister through a military coup.</p>
<p>Being a freelancer, I am not exactly blessed with regular assignments, I had the time, and it did not need that much money as all happened ten minutes away from my house. And I saw this as a unique opportunity to record history as it is made. </p>
<p>What I also felt was very special, and unprecedented in Thailand’s history, is that for the first time large regions and social classes were suddenly involved in a political struggle, and not, as before, a mostly educated and/or money elite. That made these developments so different and unpredictable.</p>
<p>At the beginning I was rather intimidated, often being the only foreign journalist, at times even the only journalist working on this, surrounded by protesters and spies. At times there were actually more spies than protesters.</p>
<p>But that gave me the unique opportunity to meet people, and get to know them early on – both protesters, and agents of the different intelligence services. To be on the safe side, I have always approached them first, introduced myself, asked them not to mistake me for an activist, but see me as a journalist. And I asked them that if my presence is a problem, or if I make a mistake, that I am always open to talk and listen.</p>
<p>Over the years meeting at countless protests, some of them very violent, with many I have formed close personal friendships, and I have learned much from their knowledge and experience. Often they have advised me, and at times protected me, yet never was I hindered in my work, or put under any pressure by those agents.</p>
<p>As much as the topic fascinated me, as much was I depressed about the lack of interest. I think that I have sold the first photos of these political problems after 2 ½ years, from the October 7 riots. Even until now I have not made a fraction of what I have invested in time and money.</p>
<p>Almost every time I have read articles in the medias, I have not found that they reflected what I have experienced while working on the ground. I had no outlet to communicate what I felt were tremendously important developments in a very important country, and a country that is very dear to me.</p>
<p>Dr. Michael Nelson, with whom I regularly discuss events and issues, persuaded me to begin writing for <em>New Mandala</em>, a small academic website. At first I was not very enthusiastic, as there was no payment involved, and I am always broke. But I started writing for them, because I thought at least I will have a respectable outlet to write what I thought has to be published, and read by the few people that actually were interested.</p>
<p> My third story there, about the October 7 riots, had a massive impact which took me completely by surprise. It was straight away translated into Thai by <em>Prachatai</em>, reposted on countless internet forums and blogs, was then printed in one Thai newspaper, and even read in full on national television, in the truth today show, the pro red TV station on channel  11.</p>
<p>Many people liked what I wrote, but there were many that disagreed, mostly from the more fanatic quarters of the PAD, and accused me of having been bribed with large sums by Thaksin. Which is completely absurd. I received many threats at the time. Even today you can see on many web forums insults, and accusations of me having been bribed by Thaksin’s lobbyists.</p>
<p>The serious threats after my report lasted until people started to hate somebody else more, about a month later. Fortunately my friends in the different intelligence services looked out for me, and one police officer accompanied me when I went to public events, until emotions calmed down.</p>
<p>A frightening part here in Thailand is that for many people the subject matter is not dealt with rationally but on a purely emotional level, which can be quite dangerous.</p>
<p>At first I wanted to include these political problems into a book project I have been working on for the last 9 years – on Thailand’s social problems and changes. But last year the political deterioration was so rapid that I had a huge amount of images and an incredibly complex topic at hand. Somebody said to me that this could be a book project by itself. After thinking a bit I thought that this is indeed so, and that this is a book that has to be published soon.</p>
<p>Therefore I did not bother to look for an international publisher. I thought a local publisher is ideal for the book I had in mind, somebody who appreciates that this subject has to be dealt with in detail. A much smaller budget than with international publishers I thought was secondary – even with a small budget we can make a very nice book. So I called up Diethard Ande from White Lotus, who straight away accepted the idea.</p>
<p>Fast forward. When the <em>songkran</em> riots happened I had to think hard if I should change the by the time already finished and edited manuscript to include the events. But I decided against it. First of all, to do justice to all the images the budget would have not been enough, I would have had to make a far too tight editing. The delay would have been too long. I still get new information about the <em>songkran</em> riots, and much more is to come. We decided to make a break with the end of the year 2008, and come up with another volume when events of this year are more clear.</p>
<p>Than a strange thing happened. Suddenly 4 printers refused to print my book. I have made sure that this book is clearly within the law, that is the parameter I work under. The fourth printer was actually very nice, and explained me why they cannot be associated with this project. They said that they liked my book, that it doesn’t break the law indeed, but it shows too well the problems of Thai society, and that it could cause them problems later on. They recommended me to approach midsized printers, and also said that if I can’t find one, they would help me finding one. A day after a good friend of mine connected me to a printing company who accepted the book. Their only concern was that my book cannot break the law, which it doesn’t.</p>
<p>I would like to say something about the many accusations going around of me being biased. I do not feel that I am biased. I work the story on the ground, and go to both camps. Of course I have sympathies, in this climate anybody who works this story closely and says that he hasn’t sympathies would be a liar. But I do not let my sympathies interfere in factual and fair reporting. I have never whitewashed anything I have seen.</p>
<p>My sympathies are, and have always been with poor people, with people who do not have a voice in the mainstream, when they demand a better life for themselves, and important ideals such as equal opportunities. And here it happens that most of these underprivileged sectors are with the red shirts.</p>
<p>I do not accept the reasoning that these people are too uneducated to make a choice for themselves. This is a highly patronizing and elitist view. Much sophistry and polemics are used to explain THIS POSITION, WHICH FOR ME IS UTENABLE, COUNTER TO the humanistic ideals I try to follow.</p>
<p>My wife of 15 years does come from such an underprivileged sector of Thai society, and she has a lot of common sense, which often is more important than education. I believe that I have learned at least as much from her as she has from me.</p>
<p>The government, Thaksin, or leaderships of protest groups do not need the sympathy of people like me, they have many other avenues to express their views to the public.</p>
<p>It is irrelevant if I like or dislike Thaksin, in this context. What matters is that his supporters have their valid reasons to have elected his government. Even if I may disagree, I have to respect their choice.</p>
<p>The point here is, that the ones who hold those elitist views have difficulties to relate to the experience of life in Thailand of these social classes, and to their struggles in everyday life.</p>
<p>But I also want to point out here, that I have also sympathies with many ordinary yellow shirts. I am convinced that in their way they also want to create a better Thailand. Many of their complaints are absolutely justified. Nobody in his right mind could possibly deny that they do not address very valid issues.</p>
<p>The tragedy here in Thailand is that there is very little exchange between the classes happening in this rigidly structured society, and very little common ground between, lets say, to simplify the issue, the Isaarn farmer and the city based thai Chinese, or also, for example, those rural and urban poor and most people in this room.  </p>
<p>This lack of communication is strongly contributing to the vehemence of the present conflicts. Thailand is an emerging democracy, and beginning to change into a pluralistic society. It will take more time before the state and the people are able to build a platform where these differences can be fought out in an orderly, nonviolent and productive manner.</p>
<p>I do view these conflicts from a historical perspective – they are very painful, but a necessary learning curve. I feel very privileged that I was, and still am, allowed and able to witness history in the making. I have learned more than I could have possibly imagined when I started.</p>
<p>I am sure that one day these conflicts will be solved (not before much more pain and blood though, I am afraid), and Thailand will come out the better, and will be on track to become a developed and successful country.</p>
<p>Thank you.</p>
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		<title>Red versus yellow</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/09/red-versus-yellow/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/09/red-versus-yellow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:44:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Walker</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Somchai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=6000</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
A stunning first-hand account from the streets of Bangkok. Incredible photos that shock, move, entertain and inform.  A superb contribution to the documentation and analysis of Thailand&#8217;s recent political history. And this is just the first volume!
Published by White Lotus Press
UPDATE: Book launch details are here.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/red-vs-yellow.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6001" title="red vs yellow" src="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/red-vs-yellow.jpg" alt="red vs yellow" width="450" height="644" /></a></p>
<p>A stunning first-hand account from the streets of Bangkok. Incredible photos that shock, move, entertain and inform.  A superb contribution to the documentation and analysis of Thailand&#8217;s recent political history. And this is just the first volume!</p>
<p>Published by <a href="http://www.whitelotuspress.com" target="_blank">White Lotus Press</a></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE: </strong>Book launch details are <a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/07/13/red-vs-yellow-launch-in-bangkok/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Thanong on Thailand&#8217;s new politics</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/06/thanong-on-thailands-new-politics/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/06/thanong-on-thailands-new-politics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2009 01:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Farrelly</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=5258</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sondhi Limthongkul cannot remain on the defensive. The military wanted him dead. But miraculously he has survived the assassination attempt. He has spoken out on TV and hinted at the identities of those who masterminded the plot&#8230;We will have to see whether Abhisit has the guts to take on the top security personnel and replace [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Sondhi Limthongkul cannot remain on the defensive. The military wanted him dead. But miraculously he has survived the assassination attempt. He has spoken out on TV and hinted at the identities of those who masterminded the plot&#8230;We will have to see whether Abhisit has the guts to take on the top security personnel and replace them before he goes into the next general election. If he fails to do so, the Democrat will surely be dead meat.</p></blockquote>
<p>- Extracted from Thanong Khanthong, “<a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/05/06/politics/politics_30102057.php" target="_blank">Abhisit may not last beyond August</a>”, <em>The Nation</em>, 6 May 2009.  To my eye this article is particularly interesting for all sorts of reasons.  It is well worth a look for <em>New Mandala</em> reader attempting to get a handle on how some of the Thai political sands appear to be shifting.  Kudos to Thanong for putting it together.</p>
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		<title>Chang Noi on the &#8220;grey politics of survival&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/04/chang-noi-on-the-grey-politics-of-survival/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/04/chang-noi-on-the-grey-politics-of-survival/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2009 22:31:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Farrelly</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Abhisit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=5224</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Consider the past week: An ambitious general. An unsavoury, opportunistic political clique. An official mob recruited by the Interior Ministry. A billionaire concession-hunter. Coup rumours. Media controls. Fear-mongering. Intrigue. The desperate grey politics of survival.
- Extracted from Chang Noi, &#8220;Red and yellow and shades of grey”, The Nation, 4 May 2009.
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Consider the past week: An ambitious general. An unsavoury, opportunistic political clique. An official mob recruited by the Interior Ministry. A billionaire concession-hunter. Coup rumours. Media controls. Fear-mongering. Intrigue. The desperate grey politics of survival.</p></blockquote>
<p>- Extracted from Chang Noi, &#8220;<a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/05/04/opinion/opinion_30101903.php" target="_blank">Red and yellow and shades of grey</a>”, <em>The Nation</em>, 4 May 2009.</p>
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		<title>Pasuk and Baker on &#8220;spirits, stars and Thai politics&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/01/pasuk-and-baker-on-spirits-stars-and-thai-politics/</link>
		<comments>http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/05/01/pasuk-and-baker-on-spirits-stars-and-thai-politics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 06:41:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas Farrelly</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Coup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal family]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thaksin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/?p=5198</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris Baker have sent through a paper they presented at the Siam Society in December 2008.  It deals with the same general set of magical themes as the article by Charles Keyes discussed in this recent New Mandala post.  The text of the Pasuk and Baker presentation, plus a fascinating series of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/09/04/interview-with-professor-pasuk-phongpaichit/" target="_blank">Pasuk Phongpaichit</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Baker_(writer)" target="_blank">Chris Baker</a> have sent through a paper they presented at the Siam Society in December 2008.  It deals with the same general set of magical themes as the article by Charles Keyes discussed in this <a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2009/04/30/another-side-of-thai-political-life/" target="_blank">recent <em>New Mandala</em> post</a>.  The text of the Pasuk and Baker presentation, plus a fascinating series of powerpoint slides, is available <a href="http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/pasuk-and-baker-on-spirits-stars-and-politics.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.  Their concluding paragraph deserves special attention:</p>
<blockquote><p>In the end, the survival of these beliefs has a profoundly anti-democratic aspect. Generals who command a nation’s armed forces, and businessmen with assets in billions of dollars, are reluctant to accept that politics are moved by the sentiments of the people rather than the influences of the stars and spirits over which they can claim some special control.</p></blockquote>
<p>In the context of my earlier question about the enduring role of spirits, stars and other rituals in the life of the Thai palace such issues are worthy of some further reflection.  Thanks to Pasuk and Chris for sharing their illuminating analysis.</p>
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