Election Archive Home
The Voting System
There are 480 members to be elected: 400 from constituencies and 80 from the “party list.”
- Most constituencies are multi-member, the number of members to be elected dependent on the population. Voters simply place a cross against the candidates of their choice. The number of crosses must equal the number of constituency members.
- For the party list, Thailand has been divided into 8 regions with each region electing 10 members.
Preliminary results will be available in the coming hours with solid national results expected by midnight (Canberra time). Results (in Thai) are available from the official Election Commission of Thailand website here.
National Results
12.56 am: The Bangkok Post website still leads with their “landslide” story but their breaking news has People Power on a more likely 227 seats. MCOT has them creeping up to 233.
12.10 am: It’s not clear where they are getting their numbers from but the ever-reliable Bangkok Post has People Power winning 254 seats - an absolute majority without any need for a coalition. Not quite a “landslide” as the headline suggests, but impressive if true.
11:09 pm: Little by little, and constituency by constituency, the People Power vote is edging towards a very strong position for Thaksin’s proxy party. According to the MCOT graph, the People Power share of the electoral pie is now 230. A simple, single-party majority requires 241.
10:51 pm: The regularly updated pie chart at MCOT gives a very clear indication of the current state of play. Right now, it has People Power on 227 and the Democrats on 158. This would potentially bring any number of the minor parties into play as People Power coalition partners.
10:06 pm: Thitinan Pongsudhirak has, to borrow Bangkok Pundit’s phrase, entrenched himself as a “quotemeister” in this election campaign. In a fresh New York Times article that discusses the latest results, he says, “We have a neo-feudal hierarchy that is untenable. It’s just incompatible with the 21st century. This contest between this older established order and the newly emerging order is being played out in the twilight of the king’s glorious reign”.
8.55 pm: As we indicate on our main page there are signs of increasing People Power Party confidence.
8.32 pm: Here are some quotes from party leaders in the Thai press:
‘We would like to thank all the voters who voted for the Democrat party,’ said Abhisit Vejajiva, the Democrat Party leader. When asked about the exit poll showing that his party will be the runners-up, Aphisit said that he would accept the result and insisted that the party who get the majority vote have the right to form the government.
Suwit Khunkitti, the leader of the Pua Paendin (Motherland), said that he would like to wait for the formal election result to be announced before making a decision about joining the coalition.
Nikorn Jumnong, the deputy leader of the Chart Thai party stated that his party should get more than 30 MP seats according to the previous polls. The recently revealed Suan Dusit exit poll shows that the Chart Thai party will get 29 seats.
Suthep Thuaksuban, the secretary of the Democrat party, pointed out that the exit poll is just a survey. He believes that the Democrat party will win more seats. ‘We should wait for the formal election result,’ said Suthep. ‘If the PPP party gets the majority vote, it means that the Thai people support them to form the government. If that is not the case, we will discuss the situation with other potential parties about the possibility for us to form the government.’
The veteran Banharn Sillapa-acha, the leader of the Chart Thai party, believes that the party will get at least 30 MP seats. He also adds that he feel a bit relieved since there is no report about the abuse of the election regulations by the members of his party.
Another Chart Thai well-known member, Maj Gen Sanan Khajornprasat said after knowing the result of the exit poll that it is technically over if the PPP party get as much as 256 MP seats out of 480 seats. ‘If they get 256 seats, they are able to form a one-party government. However, if they get only 202 seats according to the ABAC poll, we still have chance to talk with the PPP party about the possibility for the coalition government if Chalerm Yoobumroong contact us. Anyway, I need to discuss the situation with other executive members of the Chart Thai party.’
Samak Sunthornvej, the leader of the People Power party, thanks the voters. He refuses to give further interview saying that he will deliver a speech at around 8 pm when most of the vote counting is said to be announced.
8:28 pm: The Nation has English-language results that lag somewhat behind the official Thai-language counts. Nonetheless they provide a user-friendly overview of the national picture. People Power is in front by that reckoning.
8.05 pm: Democrat Party leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, quoted in the Bangkok Post: “I choose not to comment on the exit poll results until the official results are out,” he said. “I would like to thank everyone who voted for the Democrats.” But perhaps not as many “everyone” as he hoped.
8:02 pm: Over at Thailand Jumped the Shark, Tosakan writes of the Suan Dusit exit poll: “The reason I am blogging this is because I think this reflects realty”.
7:13 pm: The full Suan Dusit exit poll, courtesy of Chinnawut Techanuvat, is available here. It shows The People Power Party taking 221 Constituency seats and 35 Proportional seats for a total of 256. The Democrats only manage, on this reckoning, 127 and 35 for a total of 162.
7:05 pm: There are still no official national results but the ever-reliable Bangkok Pundit reports that the Channel 9 exit poll has the People Power Party gaining 256 seats, the Democrat Party 162 and the Thai Nation Party 29. Needless to say it is still very early in the night…
Regional Results
11:03 pm: Earlier in the evening we highlighted the performance of People Power in Baan Tiam in northern Thailand. Looking at the constituency-wide vote in its area of Chiang Mai province it is now clear that the three People Power candidates will be elected comfortably.
10.20 pm:
Here is a graph (click for larger version) with some relatively early party list counts by region (a total of about 2 million votes). The graph highlights some of the regional difference. In Zone 1 (northern Thailand) and Zone 2 (lower north and some of the northeast) PPP is ahead but the Democrat Party has attracted a solid vote. In Zones 3 and 4 (northeast Thailand) PPP dominates, as expected. In Zone 5 (eastern Thailand) and Zone 6 (Bangkok) the Democrat Party is ahead but the PPP vote is respectable. In Zone 7 (central and west Thailand) and Zone 8 (southern Thailand) the Democrat Party is well ahead. Overall these results are suggesting that PPP will win 36 party list seats and the Democrat Party 34.
9:28 pm: In Nongkhai, the People Power Party has flexed its electoral muscle. With substantial numbers of votes already counted in its two constituencies, Peua Paendin is its only real competition… The Democrats hardly rate at all in that part of the northeast. Is this because Nongkhai’s voters don’t drive cars?
9:08 pm: Actual results from Bangkok are now coming in on the official Election Commission of Thailand site. In many constituencies 20,000 votes have already been counted. The results currently read as follows:
- Constituency 1 – Democrats in front by a large margin
- Constituency 2 – Democrats well ahead
- Constituency 3 – People Power slightly ahead
- Constituency 4 – Democrats marginally in front
- Constituency 5 – People Power ahead
- Constituency 6 – People Power ever so slightly ahead
- Constituency 7 – Neck and neck
- Constituency 8 – Democrats ahead
- Constituency 9 – Democrats in a dominant position
- Constituency 10 – Democrats slightly ahead
- Constituency 11 – Neck and neck, at this stage
8:24 pm: After 10 minutes of downtime, The Nation seems to be back online.
8:19 pm: The Nation’s website appears to be down and is displaying the error message – “Can’t connect DB!!” Tell your friends, New Mandala (and all the blogs!) are still up and doing a good trade in comment and information.
8:17 pm: Chachoengsao constituency 2 (a contest which has been expertly followed in the series by New Mandala guest contributor Dr Michael H. Nelson) is seeing a strong showing from the local Chaiseng political clan. They appear on track for a People Power victory.
8:12 pm: Pick a constituency, any constituency: Surat Thani constituency 1. Down in Democrat heartland it is hardly surprising that there is a strong showing for Suthep Thuegsuban’s men. All three Democrat candidates look like they will romp it home.
7:52 pm: The official Thai government site has results from some constituencies. The numbers are still relatively small but we can report that, for example, in Nakorn Ratchasima’s Constituency 2 the three Democrat candidates are ahead of all rivals by a large margin. But only 450 votes have been counted!
17 responses so far ↓
1 Chinnawut Techanuvat // Dec 23, 2007 at 7:32 pm
The focus is now on the PPP number which has been significantly differently by the two teams of ABAC and Suan Dusit. Suan Dusit gives more to PPP at the expense of Motherland Party. Both have their greatest strengths in the Northeast – the stronghold of defunct Thai Rak Thai.
According to Suan Dusit, PPP would gain 256 out of 480 which could easily form a government on its own.
However, ABAC gives PPP 202. ABAC has Dems at 146 which still needs a hundred more to compete in forming the coalition government. They also give Chart Thai at 49 and Motherland at 42.
2 Grasshopper // Dec 23, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Chinnawut, thanks!
p/s: can you become New Mandala’s very own Antony Green?
(haha, http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/)
3 Chinnawut Techanuvat // Dec 23, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Yet another exit poll…Ramkamhaeng exit poll gives PPP 255 out of 480. Dems would get 159, Chart Thai 48, and RJT-CP 15. There is some confusion on Motherland’s estimate at this stage.
On Thai TVs now, there are some discussions on which party will come third – Chart Thai or Motherland. I believe both Democrats and PPP also look at this issue as it will determine who they should tactically approach first to form coalition.
4 chris baker // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:01 pm
The reporting of the results is streets ahead of anything seen before in Thailand – in terms of speed, accessibility, whatever.
The Nation’s figures, which are a few minutes behind the ECT site, have now counted 10.8m from the constituency poll, and 4.5m from the party list. This is a pretty good sample. For the last half-hour, the results predicted by this count have been pretty stable. There is always some early bias because urban stations get counted quicker, but the stability of the figures suggest this bias may not be so great.
The predicted result is:
PPP 188 34 222
DP 122 35 157
CT 39 4 43
PP 27 6 33
Other 24 1 25
I would guess that the final results for the top 2 parties will be within +/- 10 seats of this. That gives us a very delicate situation, with a clear win for PPP, but not an absolute majority.
5 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:06 pm
I suggest another channel to check live results from the MCOT
http://www.mcot.net/election/
The latest number (at 18.02):
PPP 222 (188/34)
Dem 159 (125/24)
Chart Thai 41 (37/4)
Phua Phaendin 32 (25/7)
Ruamjai Thai 12 (11/1)
Matchima 9 (9/-)
6 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Sorry. the number for the Dem should read : 162 (128/34)
The number for PPP is now reduced to 218 (184/34)
7 Dickie Simpkins // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:17 pm
PPP winning would be interesting. In fact, all it shows is that the coup has gone full circle, and the country will go back into the business of pro and anti Thaksin.
I always said that Thaksin needed to be knocked off with people voting, not a coup. I would be glad if this ‘win’ for PPP would reach that eventuality.
8 chris baker // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:22 pm
mcot is about 5 mins ahead, but it’s overloaded and slower.
From an hour ago, when they had counted 2m votes, up to now when they have counted 16m, PPP has been around 220 and DP around 160. That’s going to be it.
9 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Let’s suppose for the moment that the final official number will not be much different from this latest:
PPP 220
Dem 162
Chart Thai 40
Phua Phaendin 30
RuamJaiThai 12
Matchima 11
Pracharat 5
(Total 480)
This means that the Dem could still form a government, but only with the help of ALL the other 5 parties (to leave out the last two would still be too precarious). In other word, even with the support of BOTH Chart Thai and Phua Phaendin, the two next largest parties, would not be enough.
To hold such a coalition together require enormous “authority”, perhaps only possible with “outside” help (I think).
On the other hand, PPP only requires the support of Chart Thai or Phua Phaendin.
10 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 23, 2007 at 10:42 pm
The latest numbers already changed as I typed, but the pattern, and hence the ‘calculation’ above remains largely valid.
11 Chinnawut // Dec 23, 2007 at 11:00 pm
Talking numbers still…
A speculation is high on Thai media that PPP would have already talked to at least two other parties to ensure that the majority would at least surpass 240. Provided PPP has got at least 200-210 as exit polls suggested, once PPP have Ruam Jai Thai-Chat Pattana (number 5 party) firmly with them (it seems so), it would be much easier then for PPP to pick up either #3 or #4 (or both) to form the three-party coalition government. Chart Thai and Motherland would have little bargaining power to ask for anything big really.
I still personally think that if the difference between two biggest parties were as wide as 80-90, Khun Abhisit would not feel right in rushing to form the coalition against PPP, unless he’s “pushed” to take a fight.
Of course, that is just a fun guess. Another question is who at PPP would be chosen as PM. Does Khun Samak really get the full backing from London? It is the internal politics that is as equally interesting as coalition formation. But that’s the next step.
12 Chinnawut // Dec 24, 2007 at 12:37 am
Jakrapob Penkhair, PPP spokesman, just had a press conference at the party headquarter saying that the two parties, Chart Thai and Motherland, have been summoned to meet at Gen Prem’s residence. The news is not confirmed by other involved parties.
13 Nicholas Farrelly // Dec 24, 2007 at 12:39 am
Thanks Chinnawut,
Any confirmation or more information on this meeting would, of course, be very helpful for New Mandala readers. If anybody knows more please don’t hesitate to share.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
14 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 24, 2007 at 1:56 am
Here’s link to news of Jakkraphop’s statement (in Thai)
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?id=14647&catid=46
I think what caused this ‘rumor’ was the fact that leaders of the two parties seemed to have ‘disappeared’. See report (in Thai) here:
http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/2007/12/23/WW81_8101_news.php?newsid=214340
(Thanks to khun “myth” from FawDiewKan webboard for the links).
15 Somsak Jeamteerasakul // Dec 24, 2007 at 2:17 am
ITTV just reported, quoting unnamed “close aid” to Prem that NO party leaders had visited the Privy Council Chairman. The ITTV reporter camping outside Prem’s Si sao resident also claimed that no movement in or out of the compound at all.
16 Chin // Dec 24, 2007 at 9:00 am
It appears that the two medium-sized parties, Chart Thai and Motherland did have a talk, although it’s held at the house of a Motherland Party’s executive. They agreed to stay together. The coalition possibilities could be either way now, but it is almost a guarantee for them both to be in the next government.
This is a brilliant synergy move by Khun Banharn and Khun Suwit – it adds to their bargaining power considerably. The biggest parties would have to concede major cabinet posts or even PM post in exchange for their presence.
The latest unofficial figures have PPP at 229 and Dems 164. An Abhisit government, if that is to happen, would look very shaky though. I would not call a 20-seat majority a performing one by any means. Therefore, I still believe PPP would be more likely to get the two medium-sized parties plus others in forming a government, unless something outside the parliamentary game is being engineered.
Two things could change the picture however: what some 1.8m voters say on their ballots last weekend and how many PPP candidates will be “red-carded”. In many constituencies, it was indeed a close race which was won by merely a couple thousand votes. Red cards for PPP would be in favour of Democrats et al. Remember that one red card means two counts in closing marginal difference. However, I heard from an army radio while driving home that until a couple of days before election, there were very few complaints of serious charges like vote buying (most were some minor offences like wrong posters, election staff impartiality). The number of serious allegations have risen sharply only recently so this might be more to false allegations between contestants than anything.
Unfortunately, the election commissioners are once again under tremendous pressure.
17 Adam Carr // Dec 24, 2007 at 10:54 pm
The figures for the proportional seats at the ECT website are behind those given at the Nation website, that is the vote totals are lower. How can this be? Where is the Nation getting its figures from if not from the ECT?
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