This is a brilliant synergy move by Khun Banharn and Khun Suwit – it adds to their bargaining power considerably. The biggest parties would have to concede major cabinet posts or even PM post in exchange for their presence.

The latest unofficial figures have PPP at 229 and Dems 164. An Abhisit government, if that is to happen, would look very shaky though. I would not call a 20-seat majority a performing one by any means. Therefore, I still believe PPP would be more likely to get the two medium-sized parties plus others in forming a government, unless something outside the parliamentary game is being engineered.

Two things could change the picture however: what some 1.8m voters say on their ballots last weekend and how many PPP candidates will be “red-carded”. In many constituencies, it was indeed a close race which was won by merely a couple thousand votes. Red cards for PPP would be in favour of Democrats et al. Remember that one red card means two counts in closing marginal difference. However, I heard from an army radio while driving home that until a couple of days before election, there were very few complaints of serious charges like vote buying (most were some minor offences like wrong posters, election staff impartiality). The number of serious allegations have risen sharply only recently so this might be more to false allegations between contestants than anything.

Unfortunately, the election commissioners are once again under tremendous pressure.

I think what caused this ‘rumor’ was the fact that leaders of the two parties seemed to have ‘disappeared’. See report (in Thai) here:

http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/2007/12/23/WW81_8101_news.php?newsid=214340

(Thanks to khun “myth” from FawDiewKan webboard for the links).

Any confirmation or more information on this meeting would, of course, be very helpful for New Mandala readers. If anybody knows more please don’t hesitate to share.

Best wishes to all,

Nich

A speculation is high on Thai media that PPP would have already talked to at least two other parties to ensure that the majority would at least surpass 240. Provided PPP has got at least 200-210 as exit polls suggested, once PPP have Ruam Jai Thai-Chat Pattana (number 5 party) firmly with them (it seems so), it would be much easier then for PPP to pick up either #3 or #4 (or both) to form the three-party coalition government. Chart Thai and Motherland would have little bargaining power to ask for anything big really.

I still personally think that if the difference between two biggest parties were as wide as 80-90, Khun Abhisit would not feel right in rushing to form the coalition against PPP, unless he’s “pushed” to take a fight.

Of course, that is just a fun guess. Another question is who at PPP would be chosen as PM. Does Khun Samak really get the full backing from London? It is the internal politics that is as equally interesting as coalition formation. But that’s the next step.

PPP 220
Dem 162
Chart Thai 40
Phua Phaendin 30
RuamJaiThai 12
Matchima 11
Pracharat 5

(Total 480)

This means that the Dem could still form a government, but only with the help of ALL the other 5 parties (to leave out the last two would still be too precarious). In other word, even with the support of BOTH Chart Thai and Phua Phaendin, the two next largest parties, would not be enough.
To hold such a coalition together require enormous “authority”, perhaps only possible with “outside” help (I think).

On the other hand, PPP only requires the support of Chart Thai or Phua Phaendin.

From an hour ago, when they had counted 2m votes, up to now when they have counted 16m, PPP has been around 220 and DP around 160. That’s going to be it.